Long-term international migration, provisional: year ending June 2024

Since 2021, long-term international migration to the UK has been at unprecedented levels. This has been driven by a variety of factors, including the war in Ukraine and the effects of the post-Brexit immigration system. Pent-up demand for study-related immigration because of travel restrictions during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic also had an impact.

Our latest estimates indicate a fall in long-term net migration (the difference between people coming to live in the UK and those leaving to live elsewhere). Our provisional estimates show a 20% reduction between our updated estimate for year ending (YE) June 2023 (906,000) and our latest estimate for YE June 2024 (728,000).

This fall is driven by a decline in long-term immigration mainly because of declining numbers of dependants arriving on study visas. Our most recent data points also show decreases in the number of people arriving for work-related reasons. This is consistent with visa data published by the Home Office, and in part reflects policy changes from earlier this year. It is also driven by a rise in long-term emigration, most notably for those who came to the UK on study-related visas. This is likely a consequence of the large number of students who came to the UK post-pandemic now reaching the end of their courses.

Long-term immigration

Our provisional estimate of long-term immigration for YE June 2024 is 1.2 million. This is down from our updated estimate of 1.3 million in YE June 2023.

Of the 1.2 million people who came to live in the UK in YE June 2024:

• around 86% (1.0 million) were non-EU+ nationals

• 10% (116,000) were EU+ nationals (EU countries plus Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein and Switzerland)

• 5% (58,000) were British nationals  

Focusing on the 1.0 million non-EU+ nationals:

• 82% (845,000) were of working age (16 to 64 years)

• 17% (179,000) were children (under 16 years)

Indian was the most common nationality for non-EU+ immigration for both work-related (116,000) and study-related (127,000) reasons in YE June 2024.

When looking at reason for migration of non-EU+ nationals, 295,000 (29% of non-EU+ nationals) came as study main applicants, similar to YE June 2023 (302,000). Meanwhile, 80,000 (8%) came as study dependants, down from 115,000 in YE June 2023. This follows changes to the student visa route implemented in January 2024, which restricted the ability of most international students to bring family members.

Around 184,000 (18%) non-EU+ nationals came as work main applicants, similar to YE June 2023 (189,000), but down from YE December 2023 (219,000). The number of work dependants who came to the UK in YE June 2024 (233,000, 23% of non-EU+ nationals) was higher than work main applicants. This is up from 166,000 in YE June 2023, but the most recent data points show early signs of a fall. Changes in work-related immigration rules that came into effect in March and April 2024 are likely to have had an impact on the latest figures. Home Office analysis on why people come to the UK also looks in more detail at reasons for falls.

Considering asylum applications, 8% of non-EU+ long-term migrants who arrived in the UK in YE June 2024 claimed asylum. This is 84,000 people and includes those who claimed asylum after arriving via a regular route and those who claimed after arriving irregularly, for example, via small boats. 

Long-term emigration

Our provisional estimate of long-term emigration for YE June 2024 is 479,000. This is higher than our updated estimate of 414,000 in YE June 2023.

Of the 479,000 people who left the UK in YE June 2024:

• around 44% (211,000) were EU+ nationals

• 39% (189,000) were non-EU+ nationals

• 16% (79,000) were British nationals  

Non-EU+ emigration has been rising since 2022 and continues to do so. However, the most recent data points also show a rise in EU+ emigration.

The majority (60%) of the non-EU+ nationals who left the UK in YE June 2024 had originally arrived for study-related reasons. This is related to the large number of non-EU+ nationals who came to study from 2021 onwards who are now completing their courses and leaving. However, our international student research update also shows that this group are remaining in the UK longer before emigrating compared with those who arrived five years ago. This will, in part, be related to the introduction of the Graduate visa in 2021, which grants permission to stay in the UK for at least two years after successfully completing a course.

Updates to estimates

Our international migration statistics are official statistics in development. This means estimates may be updated as improvements are introduced. Our timely estimates for YE June 2024 and December 2023 are also provisional and will be updated as further and more recent data become available.

Like all statistics, these estimates also have associated statistical uncertainty, which is discussed in more detail in Section 10: Data sources and quality.

Estimates in this release have been updated back to YE June 2021. For example, net migration has been revised upwards by 166,000 for YE June 2023 and by 181,000 for YE December 2023. Reasons for these revisions include: more available data, more information on Ukraine visas and improvements to how we estimate migration of non-EU+ nationals. More information on these updates can be found in Section 6: Updates to estimates.

Figure 1: There has been a fall in long-term net migration

Total long-term net migration, immigration and emigration in the UK, year ending (YE) June 2012 to YE June 2024

Notes

1. Please see chart notes 1 to 4 in Section 10: Data sources and quality.

When we talk about immigration in this bulletin we are referring to long-term immigration. Long-term immigration is when people change the country where they usually live for 12 months or more. This is the United Nations (UN) definition of a long-term migrant.

Immigration by EU+, non-EU+ and British nationality

Our provisional estimate for total immigration for year ending (YE) June 2024 is 1,207,000. This is lower than our updated estimate of 1,320,000 for YE June 2023.

For YE June 2024:

• non-EU+ nationals accounted for around 86% of total immigration (1,034,000)
• EU+ nationals made up 10% (116,000)
• British nationals made up 5% (58,000)

Definitions of EU+ and non-EU+ can be found in Section 9: Glossary.

Figure 2: There has been a fall in long-term immigration

Number of non-EU+, EU+, and British nationals immigrating to the UK, year ending (YE) June 2012 to YE June 2024

Notes:

1. Please see chart notes 1 to 4 in Section 10: Data sources and quality.

The line chart in Figure 2 shows that non-EU+ nationals drove the large increases in total immigration between 2020 and 2023. At the same time, there was a fall in the number of EU+ nationals coming to live in the UK. This fall begins around the time of the EU referendum in 2016, before accelerating after free movement for EU+ nationals ended when the UK left the EU in 2020.

More recent data show a fall in immigration of non-EU+ nationals. This is related to a decline in immigration for humanitarian reasons and falls in the number of non-EU+ nationals coming for work- and study-related reasons in the most recent periods.

The fall in total immigration in the latest year may be partly because of immigration rule changes, which occurred in the second half of YE June 2024. We will not be able to see the full impact of these yet, because the latest data also include the period from July 2023, before the rules were implemented.

However, more recent Home Office visa applications statistics show the number of study visa applications from both main applicants and dependants fell in the first 10 months of 2024 (compared with the same period in 2023). There have also been falls in applications for Health and Care Worker visas since late 2023. Home Office analysis on why people come to the UK looks in more detail at the reasons for these falls.

Non-EU+ immigration

In this section we take a closer look at non-EU+ nationals who came to live in the UK.

Characteristics

In YE June 2024, non-EU+ nationals who came to live in the UK were 52% male and 48% female.

The majority (82%) of non-EU+ nationals who came to live in the UK long term in YE June 2024 were of working age (between 16 and 64 years). Around 17% were children (under 16 years) and 1% were aged 65 years or over.

Considering country of nationality, the top five non-EU+ nationalities for long-term immigration into the UK in YE June 2024 were:

• Indian (240,000)  

• Nigerian (120,000)  

• Pakistani (101,000)  

• Chinese (78,000)  

• Zimbabwean (36,000)

Reason for immigration

Data on reasons why non-EU+ nationals come to live in the UK are based on their original type of long-term visa, their asylum application or arrival under a resettlement scheme.

In YE June 2024, 417,000 non-EU+ nationals came to live in the UK for work-related reasons. This is closely followed by study-related immigration (375,000 people). These estimates are consistent with Home Office data on visas granted to non-EU+ nationals.

Other reasons non-EU+ nationals came to live in the UK in YE June 2024 were:

• asylum (84,000 people)

• family reasons (76,000 people)

• humanitarian reasons (67,000 people)

Figure 3: Work and study remain the most common reasons for non-EU+ immigration

Number of non-EU+ nationals coming to live in the UK long-term by reason, year ending (YE) June 2019 to YE June 2024  

Notes:

1.Please see chart notes 1 to 4 and 7 and 8 in Section 10: Data sources and quality.

The line chart in Figure 3 shows that work-related reasons have been the most common reasons for non-EU+ immigration since YE December 2023, closely followed by study-related reasons.

We saw large increases in both work-related and study-related immigration following the end of travel restrictions and the introduction of the new immigration system after the UK left the EU. The increase in work-related immigration was related to the post-coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic economic recovery, the expansion of the Health and Care Worker visa, large increases in the number of work dependants and declines in EU+ immigration. The increase in study-related immigration was largely driven by rises in the number of study visas granted to main applicants for master's level courses, and an increase in study dependants.

However, in more recent periods, we have seen a fall in both work- and study-related immigration for non-EU+ nationals.

Figure 4: Number of study-dependants decreasing

Number of non-EU+ nationals coming to live in the UK long-term by work- and study-related reasons, YE June 2019 to YE June 2024

Notes:

1. Please see chart notes 1 to 4 and 7 and 8 in Section 10: Data sources and quality.

The line chart in Figure 4 shows that non-EU+ study dependants decreased from 115,000 people in YE June 2023 to 80,000 people in YE June 2024. As the number of study main applicants has stayed steady around 300,000, this fall has driven the decrease in total study-related non-EU+ immigration. This fall is likely related to changes to the student visa route implemented in January 2024, which restricted the ability of most international students to bring family members.

Figure 4 also shows the number of work dependants coming to live in the UK remains higher than the number of work main applicants. However, there are early signs of a decrease in both for the most recent data points. This is consistent with the latest Home Office data showing falls in the number of work visas granted, for main applicants and work dependants. In particular, Health and Care Worker visa grants have seen sustained falls for both main applicants and dependants since late 2023. Changes in work-related immigration rules that came into effect in March and April 2024 are likely to have had an impact on the latest figures. Home Office analysis on why people come to the UK also looks in more detail at reasons for falls.

Reason for immigration by nationality

The bar chart in Figure 5 shows that for Indian, Nigerian and Pakistani nationals, work- and study-related immigration were fairly similar. It also shows that for Chinese nationals, study-related immigration was far more common (58,000 for study-related and 5,000 for work-related) and for Zimbabwean nationals, work-related immigration was far more common (35,000 for work-related and 1,000 for study-related).

When we talk about emigration in this bulletin, we are referring to long-term emigration. This is when a person has left the UK to live in another country for a period of at least 12 months.

Emigration by EU+, non-EU+ and British nationality

Our provisional estimate of total emigration for year ending (YE) June 2024 is 479,000, which is higher than our updated estimate for YE June 2023 (414,000).

For YE June 2024:

• EU+ nationals accounted for 44% of total emigration (211,000)

• non-EU+ nationals made up 39% (189,000)

• British nationals made up 16% (79,000)

Definitions of EU+ and non-EU+ can be found in Section 9: Glossary.

Figure 6: There has been a rise in long-term emigration

Number of non-EU+, EU+, and British nationals emigrating long-term from the UK, year ending (YE) June 2012 to YE June 2024

Notes:

1. Please see chart notes 1 to 4 in Section 10: Data sources and quality.

The line chart in Figure 6 shows that provisional estimates for YE June 2024 show an increase in total emigration since YE June 2023. This is partly driven by the large number of non-EU+ nationals who came to study from 2021 onwards now completing their courses and leaving. An increase in the number of EU+ nationals leaving the UK long-term is also having an impact.

Non-EU+ emigration

Characteristics

In YE June 2024, non-EU+ nationals who left the UK long-term were 51% male and 49% female.

The majority (90%) of non-EU+ nationals who left the UK long-term were of working-age (between 16 and 64 years). Around 9% were children (under 16 years) and 1% were aged 65 years or over.

Reason for emigration

Emigration of most non-EU+ nationals by reason is derived from the original long-term visa a person held. For example, estimates of non-EU+ nationals who emigrated for study are people who have left the UK, who originally came here long-term to study.

Figure 7: People who originally came to the UK on study-related visas continues to be the main reason for emigration

Number of non-EU+ nationals emigrating long-term from the UK by reason for migration, YE June 2019 to YE June 2024

Notes:

1. Please see chart notes 1 to 4 and 7 and 8 in Section 10: Data sources and quality.

The line chart in Figure 7 shows that although provisional estimates show a slight drop for the most recent period, the long-term emigration of non-EU+ nationals who originally arrived on study-related visas has been on an upward trend since YE March 2022.

In YE June 2024, 113,000 non-EU+ nationals who initially arrived on study-related visas emigrated long-term. This accounted for 60% of all long-term emigration for non-EU+ nationals and is an increase from 91,000 in YE June 2023. These figures are expected as many of the large number of students that came to the UK after coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic travel restrictions were lifted, are now completing their studies. However, our international student research update also shows that this group are remaining in the UK longer before emigrating compared with those who arrived five years ago. This will, in part, be related to the introduction of the Graduate visa in 2021, which grants permission to stay in the UK for at least two years after successfully completing a course.

For an assessment of the impact of the Graduate visa route, see the Migration Advisory Committee's Rapid Review of the Graduate Route (PDF, 1.47MB).

Considering other reasons for long-term emigration, provisional estimates also show a slight increase in long-term emigration for non-EU+ nationals who originally arrived on work-related visas. This rose from 32,000 in YE June 2023 to 41,000 in YE June 2024.

When we talk about net migration in this bulletin, we are referring to long-term net migration. This is long-term immigration minus long-term emigration.

Net migration by EU+, non-EU+ and British nationality

In year ending (YE) June 2024, total long-term net migration was provisionally estimated to be 728,000.

The latest estimates for non-EU+ net migration saw more people arrive in the UK than leave, with an estimated net migration of 845,000. In contrast, both EU+ and British nationals saw more people leave the UK than arrive, with net migration estimates of negative 95,000 and negative 21,000, respectively.

 Definitions of EU+ and non-EU+ can be found in Section 9: Glossary.

Figure 8: Falls in non-EU+ net migration driving falls in total net migration

Long-term net migration of non-EU, EU+, and British nationals in the UK, year ending (YE) June 2012 to YE June 2024

Notes

1. Please see chart notes 1 to 4 in Section 10: Data sources and quality.

The line chart in Figure 8 shows recent falls in net migration are driven mainly by decreases in non-EU+ net migration. Net migration for EU+ and British nationals remains negative.

Net migration and international students

Estimates of net migration of non-EU+ international students are produced and published in our Reason for international migration, international students update: November 2024.

International students meet the UN definition of a long-term international migrant, so we include them in net migration estimates. It is not currently possible to fully exclude students from net migration statistics for methodological and definitional reasons as many go on to stay in the country for work or other purposes after the end of their study and do not emigrate immediately. We are aware of stakeholder interest in estimates of net migration excluding students and will be seeking user feedback in early 2025 as part of investigating potential options for how to estimate this.

We are transforming population and migration statistics and developing methods for long-term international migration that make more use of administrative data.

As we do this, part of our quality assurance involves comparing our estimates of immigration with other sources of information.

Figure 9: Estimates of non-EU+ immigration compared with other available data sources

Alternative sources of non-EU+ long-term immigration estimates between year ending (YE) June 2018 and YE June 2024

Notes:

1. Please see chart notes 1 to 4 and 9 to 12 in Section 10: Data sources and quality.

The line chart in Figure 9 shows Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimates of long-term non-EU+ immigration align with trends seen in the Home Office (HO) data on visas granted. The number of visas granted will always be higher as not everyone will use their visa or stay long-term. However, changes in the size of the gap between visas granted and ONS immigration estimates can be caused by changes in the percentage of people who use their visa and stay long-term.  

Figure 9 also shows ONS immigration estimates align with data from the Department for Work and Pensions on National Insurance number (NINo) allocations. NINo data will, in general, always be lower as some people who come to the UK long-term will not have a National Insurance number (for example, children).

We have updated (revised) our previously published international migration estimates from year ending (YE) June 2021 to YE December 2023.

Figure 10: Updates to headline international migration estimates

Current long-term immigration, emigration and net migration estimates compared with estimates published in May 2024, year ending (YE) June 2012 to YE December 2023

Notes:

1. Please see chart notes 1 to 4 in Section 10: Data sources and quality.

The line chart in Figure 10 shows that immigration estimates have been revised upwards and emigration downwards. This has resulted in increases to net migration estimates, particularly from YE December 2022 onwards.

Table 1 shows updates to estimates for all, EU+ (EU countries and Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein and Switzerland) and non-EU+ nationals for YE June 2023 and YE December 2023. No updates were made to estimates for British nationals. Figures should not be combined across the year-ending periods shown as the time periods overlap (January to June 2023 are included in both).

Updates to estimates of non-EU+ nationals

There are four main reasons for the updates to our estimates of non-EU+ nationals.

More information on Ukraine visas

Our ongoing research has led to a better understanding of visas granted to people on the Ukraine schemes. We now know we were previously missing some people arriving on the Ukraine schemes. We have now corrected this. It has added 43,000 people to our immigration estimate for YE June 2023 and 30,000 people to our immigration estimate for YE December 2023.

Improvements to assumptions

To meet the UN definition of a long-term migrant, a person needs to stay in the UK for over 12 months. However, we do not have all the travel information we need to decide if newly arrived people will become long-term migrants so we have to make assumptions. Previously, we based our assumptions solely on visa type but now our assumptions take into account age and nationality as well.

This improvement has increased our estimates of immigration for the most recent periods as the new method predicted more people will stay over 12 months than we previously estimated.

Improvements in identifying new visas

As a result of additional information in the data we are provided with, we can now see when people move to a new visa as soon as it is granted. Previously we could only see their new visa when they travelled.

This means we are better at measuring the number of people who:

• originally arrived on a short-term visa and then moved onto a long-term one (this increases immigration estimates)

• moved onto a new long-term visa after their original one expired (this decreases emigration estimates)

New travel data

As more data become available, we get a more complete picture of travel behaviour, which we incorporate into our estimates. For example, when we published our estimates in May 2024, we did not have complete data to say whether those who arrived between January and June 2023 would stay long term for the YE December 2023 period, instead we had to make assumptions. But we now have 12 months of travel data for those who arrived between January and June 2023, so we have updated our estimates.

Updates to estimates of EU+ nationals

We have updated our EU estimates for YE June 2021 onwards. This is because we have widened our EU category slightly to EU+. The EU+ category includes nationals from all EU countries and those from Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein and Switzerland. We have included these within our EU category as people from these countries were, and still are, subject to the same immigration controls as those from the EU. For example, people from Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein and Switzerland are able to apply for EU Settled Status.

The addition of nationals from these four countries has had a relatively small impact. The largest change to immigration or emigration in any year-ending period is 3,000.

Other updates to estimates for EU+ nationals have come from a new supply of data.

More information on updates to our estimates

For a more detailed explanation of what is driving the updates to our estimates, please see our International Migration Research, progress update: November 2024 article.

Historically, our non-UK-born population estimates were based on the Annual Population Survey (APS). We are transforming the way we produce population and migration statistics to make best use of all available data.

The Labour Force Survey (LFS) is also undergoing a transformation to make further improvements to labour market statistics for quality, granularity and timeliness. As part of this transformation journey, we are reviewing the best methods to produce estimates of the UK population. Following an underlying data issue, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) discontinued the population of the UK by country of birth and nationality series using the APS in October 2022. This issue affected the accuracy of population growth estimates for non-UK-born and non-British nationals beyond June 2021.

Our first migration statistics from the Census 2021 for England and Wales were published on 2 November 2022. These are our best estimates of the population of England and Wales by country of birth and passports held.

The census provides the best picture of society at a moment in time every 10 years. However, there is a need for more timely and frequent statistics that make the best use of all available data and enable us to understand our population and how it changes on an ongoing basis. In November 2022, we released an international migration research paper update, which included a provisional measure that rolled forward the Census 2021 data to produce an even more up-to-date picture for June 2022 for England and Wales.

In July 2024, we published our population estimates for England and Wales for mid-2023. To understand the size of the non-UK-born population living in England and Wales at this time, we can use the same rolled-forward method as the November 2022 update:

• using the Census 2021 population estimates for England and Wales: 3,643,000 EU-born and 6,375,000 non-EU-born in March 2021, a total of 10,018,000 non-UK-born

• removing deaths of non-UK-born people, which occurred in England and Wales since then (22 March 2021 to 30 June 2023): 47,000 EU-born and 92,000 non-EU-born

• adjusting for estimated net migration of non-UK-born  people since then (1 April 2021 to 30 June 2023) (as given in this statistical bulletin): negative 202,000 EU+ nationals (EU countries plus Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein and Switzerland) and 1,761,000 non-EU+ nationals (these are based on nationality and flows in and out of the whole of the UK) 

• we can estimate that the population level for non-UK-born in England and Wales was 11,439,000 in June 2023; of which EU-born was 3,395,000 and non-EU-born was 8,044,000 (numbers are calculated from unrounded figures) 

• these estimates are part of ongoing research, so estimates are experimental and provisional; therefore, there is a degree of uncertainty around them

The bar chart in Figure 11 shows provisional estimates for June 2023 indicate a rise of around 1.7 million for the non-EU-born population since Census Day 2021. This is a 26% increase. In contrast, the EU-born population in June 2023 has fallen by around 250,000 since Census Day 2021, a decrease of 7%.  

Currently we are continuing to publish these estimates for England and Wales only. It is important to note that the method does not factor in internal migration, for example, someone born abroad moving from Scotland into England. In addition, the method assumes all international migration of non-UK nationals occurs to and from England and Wales rather than the whole of the UK. 

We are continuing to investigate how the Transformed Labour Force Survey (TLFS) can be used to produce estimates of the non-UK-born population. Historically, we have used APS data for this purpose, and it is intended that TLFS may be able to replace these. Additional exploration is also taking place to better understand the quality of the APS since we discontinued the series. We plan to provide an update on this in 2025.

Our long-term ambition remains that the non-UK-born estimate of the population will be consistent with both our admin-based population estimates (ABPE), produced from the Dynamic Population Model (DPM), and our estimates of long-term international migration. This will ensure a coherent suite of data across population and migration statistics.

Administrative data

Collections of data maintained for administrative reasons, for example, registrations, transactions, or record-keeping. They are used for operational purposes and their statistical use is secondary. These sources are typically managed by other government bodies.

Asylum applicants

An asylum applicant (also referred to as "asylum seeker") is someone who makes a claim to be recognised as a refugee under the Refugee Convention.

"Asylum" estimates in this bulletin refer to the long-term international migration of non-EU+ nationals who have applied (that is, made a claim) for asylum in the UK within a year of arrival. It includes people who claimed asylum after arriving in the UK via a regular route and those who claimed after arriving irregularly, for example, via small boats.

An asylum-related return is one where there has been an asylum claim at some stage prior to the return. For more information on this, see the User Guide to Home Office Immigration Statistics.

British national

A British national is a person who holds a type of British (English, Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish) nationality. There are six different types of British nationality:

• British citizenship

• British Overseas Territories citizen

• British overseas citizen

• British subject

• British National (Overseas)

• British protected person

For the purposes of our estimates, we have treated British National (Overseas) (BN(O)) as a separate category within the non-EU+ country grouping.

British National (Overseas) (BN(O))

Someone who was a British Overseas Territories citizen by connection with Hong Kong lost that citizenship on 30 June 1997, when sovereignty returned to China. However, such a person was able to register as a British National (Overseas) (BN(O)) before 1 July 1997. For more information, see the Types of British nationality guide on GOV.UK.

On 31 January 2021, the UK launched a bespoke immigration route for BN(O) status holders and their families from Hong Kong.

Dependant visas

International migrants that have entered the UK on a visa may be eligible to bring their dependant partner or child with them through a dependant visa, depending on the type of visa the main applicant holds. A dependant partner or child is any of the following of an international migrant:

• a husband, wife, civil partner or unmarried partner

• a child under 18 years, including if they were born in the UK during the international migrant's stay

• a child over 18 years if they are currently in the UK as the international migrant's dependant

EU and EU+

EU is the European Union. It is the sum of EU14, EU8, and EU2, plus Malta, Cyprus and Croatia (from 1 July 2013). British nationals are not included in these numbers at any time point.

• EU2 is Romania and Bulgaria.

• EU8 is Czechia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia.

• EU14 is Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Republic of Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain and Sweden.

• Other EU is Malta, Cyprus and Croatia (joined from 2013).

EU+ is all current EU countries plus Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein and Switzerland.

Long-term international migration

Long-term international migration (LTIM) statistics estimate the flow of people to and from the UK. This bulletin uses the United Nations-recommended definition of a long-term international migrant, which is: "A person who moves to a country other than that of his or her usual residence for a period of at least a year (12 months), so that the country of destination effectively becomes his or her new country of usual residence".

Main applicant

A main applicant is an individual who has been granted leave to enter or to remain in the UK on a visa, for example, a work or study visa. Main applicants may be eligible to bring their dependant family members with them on a dependant visa.

Nationality

Nationality of a country is a legal status that usually gives a person a particular set of rights relating to that country.

Net migration

Net migration is the difference between the number of people coming to live in the UK (immigration) and the number of people leaving to live elsewhere (emigration). When more people are coming to the UK than leaving, net migration is above zero and so adds to the UK population.

Non-EU+

Non-EU+ is the sum of the rest of the world, including the rest of Europe, not included in the EU+ category. British nationals are excluded from these numbers.

"Other" reason for migration

For non-EU+ migrants, the reason for migration is based on their visa type. "Other" reason includes people who immigrated to the UK under visas classified as:

• admin

• visit

• other

• settlement

• protection

• those that did not fit into any of our designated classifications

For EU+ and British migrants, the reason for migration is based on responses to the International Passenger Survey (IPS). The IPS asks migrants to identify their main reason for migration. The "Other" reason includes:

• going home to live

• other

• no reason stated, including non-responses and the non-specific response "emigrating" or "immigrating"

Ukraine visa support schemes

The Ukraine Family Scheme allowed applicants to join family members or extend their stay in the UK. The Ukraine Extension Scheme allowed Ukrainian nationals and their immediate family members to apply for permission to stay in the UK. The Ukraine Sponsorship Scheme allows Ukrainian nationals and their family members to come to the UK if they have a named sponsor under the Homes for Ukraine Scheme. The reason for migration will predominantly only show the out-of-country routes, as opposed to the extension routes.

Chart notes

1. YE: year ending. Please be aware that year ending periods overlap.

2. Numbers have been rounded to the nearest thousand. Most calculations are done on unrounded numbers so totals may not equal the sum of individual parts. 

3. See information within this section for more details on data sources and methods.

4. Long-term international migration estimates for the YE June 2021 to the YE December 2023 have been revised. Those for the last four year-ending periods are provisional. See Section 6: Updates to estimates.

5. Estimates do not include those arriving via asylum and humanitarian resettlement routes, though British Nationals (Overseas) and Ukraine-schemes were included in the analysis that produced these figures.

6. Estimates for non-EU+ nationals arriving in the UK by nationality in YE June 2024 have been adjusted to account for early leavers, that is, people who emigrate before 12 months have passed, so are not classed as long-term migrants.

7. Reasons for immigration are based on initial reasons why individuals arrived in the UK. They do not show visas people may have transferred to. Work- and study-related reasons include main applicants and dependants. Humanitarian in Figures 3 and 7 is the sum across various humanitarian schemes presented in the main long-term international migration dataset - this calculation is done on unrounded figures. "Other" in Figure 5 refers to all other reasons aside from work-related, study-related, asylum and humanitarian resettlement. Reasons for emigration are based on the initial reason why an individual arrived in the UK.

8. See Section 9: Glossary for more information on reason for migration groupings.

9. ONS data on long-term immigration are for non-EU+ from YE June 2021. Registration and Population Interaction Database (RAPID) data are for non-EU+ from YE June 2018. Census 2021 data, and figures on National Insurance number applications and visas granted are for non-EU for all time periods. RAPID data used are the most up-to-date version.    

10. The Census 2021 estimate is based on non-UK-born residents who arrived in England or Wales in 12 months from March 2020 who intended to stay for 12 months or more, and the passport they held. Census 2021 data are for England and Wales only, the other data sources are UK flows.

11. National Insurance numbers (NINos) are generally required to work or claim benefits, so will include short-term migrants and people who may have been in the country for a while before registering. We have published a note explaining the differences between NINo registrations and our long-term international migration estimates. NINo Registrations are published by DWP in their NINo allocations to adult overseas nationals entering the UK collection.

12. Visas issued by the Home Office are required for the majority of non-EU+ nationals who migrate to the UK long-term. The number of visas issued should always exceed long-term international immigration as not everyone who has a visa will use it and not all who use it will stay long-term. 

13. Estimates for the non-UK-born population may not match previous releases because we have revised our long-term international migration estimates.

14. Data refer to the number of non-UK-born residents in the UK at a given point in time. In this instance: Census Day 2021, June 2021, June 2022 and June 2023.

15. Long-term international migration flows presented in this bulletin should not be compared with the non-UK-born population estimates as they measure two different things. For more information, please see our Understanding international migration statistics guidance.

16. Estimates published in May 2024 were for EU and non-EU labelled groupings.

Exceptional pre-release access to ONS migration statistics

The National Statistician has granted exceptional pre-release access to the publications 'Long-term international migration, provisional: year ending June 2024' and 'Reason for international migration, international students update: November 2024' for two representatives of PA Media (formerly Press Association). The publications were made available at 8:45am on 28 November 2024, ahead of publication on the ONS website at 9:30am on 28 November 2024. In the opinion of the National Statistician, the access is necessary to facilitate well-informed debate and support better public understanding of the statistics, in line with the rules and principles on pre-release access set out in the relevant UK legislation.

Data sources and methods

These estimates cover the period year ending (YE) June 2012 to YE June 2024. Current and previous methods are described in our updated methodology document. A more detailed account of the methods are provided within our technical user guide.

Approaches for quality assuring methods and resulting outputs are routinely assessed via various groups. This includes the Migration Statistics Expert Group who provide advice and assurance on methodological questions. Members of this group have supported a review of the assumptions used for this round of estimation. Additionally, the ONS's Quality and Improvement team provide periodic reviews of approaches to quality assurance processes.

EU+ nationals

In November 2024, we widened our EU category to EU+ for data back to YE June 2021. EU+ is all EU countries plus Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland.

The Registration and Population Interaction Database (RAPID) is used for our EU+ estimates. It is a database created by the Department for Work and Pensions and provides a single coherent view of interactions across the breadth of benefits and earnings datasets for anyone with a National Insurance number (NINo).

Read more on the latest methodology to estimate the migration of EU+ nationals in our Methods for measuring international migration using RAPID administrative data methodology.  

Non-EU+ nationals

For non-EU+ nationals we use Home Office Borders and Immigration data. This combines visa and travel information to link an individual's travel movements into and out of the country. More information is within the Home Office user guide to immigration system statistics.

To estimate non-EU+ immigration, we have developed a method that uses an individual's first arrival and last departure dates to approximate their length of stay in the UK within the period for which they have a valid visa. More detailed information can be found in our technical user guide.

British nationals

There is currently no administrative source available that estimates the international migration movements of British nationals. Census data have been used to estimate British nationals over the decade from YE June 2012 to YE June 2021. See our article Estimating UK international migration: 2012 to 2021 for more information.

International migration estimates of British nationals for YE September 2021 onwards remain based on the International Passenger Survey (IPS). This collects information about passengers entering and leaving the UK. It has been running since 1961 until 1 July 2024 when it stopped surveying arrivals. People leaving the UK are still surveyed.

These estimates should be treated with caution. See our methodology document for more information.

We are undertaking research to provide an administrative data-based alternative.

Official statistics in development

These statistics are labelled as "official statistics in development". Until September 2023, these were called "experimental statistics". Read more about the change in our Guide to official statistics in development.

We are developing how we collect and produce data to improve the quality of these statistics. Once the developments are complete, we will review with the Statistics Head of Profession. We will decide whether the statistics are of sufficient quality and value to be published as official statistics, or whether further development is needed. Production may be stopped if they are not of sufficient quality or value. Users will be informed of the outcome and any changes.

We value your feedback on these statistics. Contact us at pop.info@ons.gov.uk.

Uncertainty measures of international migration

Uncertainty intervals are provided for statistics created using mainly administrative data and some survey data. A wider interval indicates more uncertainty in the estimate. Uncertainty intervals differ from confidence intervals, which are applicable to estimates derived from sample surveys.

The uncertainty intervals for data used in this bulletin can be found in the accompanying dataset. They are provided for the most recent total immigration, emigration and net migration estimates. They suggest that provisional estimates of net migration have a range of 598,000 to 760,000 in YE June 2024.

These uncertainty intervals have been constructed using simulation studies such that there is a 95% probability the intervals contain the true value, under the assumption that our simulations accurately include all the main sources of uncertainty.

However, at the moment our uncertainty intervals should be interpreted with caution as our simulations do not measure all main sources of uncertainty and likely underreport uncertainty with international migration estimates.

Currently, long-term international migration uncertainty intervals only quantify the doubt associated with adjustments to non-EU+ estimates, adjustments and temporal disaggregation to the EU+ estimates, as well as sampling error from IPS estimates for British nationals. Some main sources of uncertainty, like uncertainty associated with the administrative data, are not included.

We are working to further improve our uncertainty measures so that they will cover a greater range of sources of uncertainty.

For more explanation on the uncertainty measures, see our working paper series and methods paper on uncertainty. For more information on how these uncertainty ranges have been compiled and their limitations, see our May 2024 research progress update.

Strengths and limitations

The estimates for the most recent time periods in our data series (YE Sep 2023 to YE June 2024) are provisional and provide users with an early indication of migration during this period.

We update assumptions that feed into our provisional estimates to reflect changing behaviour. Therefore, these estimates will be subject to a range of factors, which make any estimates of net migration more uncertain at present. As outlined in our Population and International Migration Statistics Revisions Policy methodology, these estimates are subject to change, both because of methods refinement as well as scheduled revisions when more data become available. For more information see our research progress update.

Our release coincides with the publication of the Home Office's latest immigration system statistics and DWP's National Insurance number allocations to adult overseas nationals entering the UK - GOV.UK, both for the period to the end of September 2024. Numbers on visas granted may indicate trends in the arrivals of non-EU+ long-term migrants but cannot indicate the net effect after further stays and emigration as they are not taken into account. The ONS and Home Office continue to work together closely to produce a consistent insight into UK international migration.

Further information on strengths and limitations of data sources is included in our methodology document.

Impact of coronavirus (COVID-19)

Operational processes were affected during the coronavirus pandemic, which influenced the collection of some administrative data.

The NINo registration service was partially suspended in March 2020 for certain customers, with a phased return to normal operations completed by April 2021.

Some of the trends seen in EU migration from the Registration and Population Interaction Database (RAPID) may have been affected by these restrictions, where some migrants may have arrived in the UK, but were unable to register for a NINo. Therefore, they may not have been included in the estimates from RAPID.

For more information on the suspension of the NINo application process, see the Department for Work and Pensions' National Insurance numbers allocated to adult overseas nationals to June 2024 publication.