Long-term international migration, provisional: year ending June 2023

• The provisional estimate of total long-term immigration for year ending (YE) June 2023 was 1.2 million, while emigration was 508,000, meaning that net migration was 672,000; most people arriving to the UK in the YE June 2023 were non-EU nationals (968,000), followed by EU (129,000) and British (84,000).

• Net migration for YE June 2023 was 672,000, which is slightly higher compared with YE June 2022 (607,000) but down on our updated estimate for YE December 2022 (745,000); while it is too early to say if this is the start of a new downward trend, these more recent estimates indicate a slowing of immigration coupled with increasing emigration.

• Methods for measuring international migration are in development, and these timely estimates for year ending June 2023 and December 2022 are provisional, supported by assumptions that are informed by past behaviour; this means the uncertainty associated with these estimates will reduce in our next releases, when we have more data to confirm people’s long-term migration status.

• Before the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, migration was relatively stable, but patterns and behaviours have been shifting considerably since then; net migration increased sharply since 2021 because of a rise in non-EU immigration driven by a range of factors including those arriving on humanitarian routes (including Ukrainian and British National (Overseas) schemes), as well as an increase in non-EU students and workers.

• The increase in non-EU immigration in the YE June 2023 was mainly driven by migrants coming for work (up to 33% from 23% in YE June 2022), largely attributed to those coming on health and care visas; in contrast, those arriving on humanitarian routes decreased from 19% to 9% over the same period. 

• The largest contributor to non-EU immigration (39%) was study, which was largely unchanged compared with YE June 22; however, while historic evidence has shown that more than 80% of students typically left within 5 years, analysis of more recent cohorts is suggesting that more are staying for longer and transitioning onto work visas.

• There have also been changes in the number of dependants coming to the UK; in YE June 2019, dependants accounted for 6% of non-EU student immigration and 37% of non-EU work immigration, which increased to 25% and 48%, respectively in YE June 2023.

Our estimates show a marked change in immigration since 2021. This coincides with free movement ending for EU nationals as part of the introduction of the new immigration system in January 2021, the easing of travel restrictions following the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic in July 2021, and external developments such as the war in Ukraine.

In the year ending (YE) June 2023, the provisional estimate of long-term immigration was 1.18 million (Figure 1). This is an estimated increase of 102,000 compared with YE June 2022. Provisional estimates provide an early indication that the relatively high levels of immigration are starting to fall. In YE December 2022 immigration was estimated at 1.23 million. These estimates will be updated in our next releases as more travel data become available. The YE December 2022 estimates have been revised for the reasons explained in Section 8: Revisions to migration statistics.

Looking at the historical picture, until 2019 EU nationals were the larger component of total immigration, whereas since 2021 the majority of immigration is now non-EU nationals. Non-EU immigration was estimated to be around 968,000 for YE June 2023, an increase of 120,000 compared with YE June 2022. In the YE June 2023 this group accounted for 82% of total immigration.

Immigration of EU nationals was estimated at 129,000 for YE June 2023, this has remained largely flat with an increase of just 7,000 compared with YE June 2022. This group accounted for 11% of total immigration in YE June 2023, compared with 63% of total immigration in YE June 2016.

Analysis using data from the Registration and Population Interactions Database (RAPID) suggests that since 2021, over 60% of long-term immigration of EU nationals are those who have previously lived in the UK and could potentially represent those with EU settled status. Since January 2021, EU nationals have required a visa to move to the UK. However, those with EU settled status can continue to travel to the UK without a visa.

British nationals made up the remaining 7% of immigration (84,000) in YE June 2023, a decrease from 108,000 in the YE June 2022.

To find out more about immigration over the period from 2011 and 2021 see our Estimating UK international migration article.

Figure 1: Provisional estimates indicate a slowing of immigration over the last year

Number of non-EU, EU, and British nationals immigrating into the UK, between YE June 2012 and YE June 2023

Notes:

1. Read more on the methods, data sources and data quality in Section 12: Strengths and limitations.
2. YE: year ending.
3. Non-EU figures are based on Home Office Borders and Immigration data, EU figures are based on Registration and Population Interaction Database (RAPID) data received from Department for Work and Pensions and HM Revenue and Customs, and British nationals figures are based on the International Passenger Survey (IPS). See Section 11: Measuring the data for more details.
4. Estimates for British nationals for YE June 2012 to YE June 2021 are based on evidence of population changes between the 2011 Census and Census 2021. Estimates for YE September 2021 onwards remain based on IPS data.
5. Numbers have been rounded to the nearest thousand. Totals may not equal the sum of individual parts.

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In the YE June 2023, the top five non-EU nationalities for immigration flows into the UK were: Indian (253,000), Nigerian (141,000), Chinese (89,000), Pakistani (55,000) and Ukrainian (35,000).

Estimates of immigration of Ukrainian nationals include those on the Ukraine Sponsorship Scheme and Ukraine Family Scheme (31,000) and those arriving on other visas (mainly work-related visas) (3,000).

EU nationality breakdowns suggest that the country grouping that had the largest contribution to UK immigration is EU14, which for the YE March 2023 made up 55% of total long-term EU immigration. The second largest proportion consisted of EU2 nationalities at 28%, with the remaining country grouping being EU8 at 16% and EU Other at 1%.

In the year ending (YE) June 2023, the provisional figures show that the number of people emigrating out of the UK long term was 508,000, an increase of 37,000 from the YE June 2022 (Figure 2). In the YE June 2023, non-EU nationals accounted for 200,000 (39%) of this long-term total, EU nationals accounted for 215,000 (42%), and British nationals accounted for 93,000 (18%).

Levels of emigration in the YE June 2023, compared with the previous year, increased mostly because of non-EU nationals. Non-EU emigration increased by 72,000 compared with the YE June 2022, mainly driven by those on initial study visas. Evidence in our Reason for international migration, international students update: November 2023 article suggests that, after five years, most people (83%) who arrived in the YE June 2018 on a study-related visa have emigrated. These findings suggest that emigration may continue to rise over the coming years following the increase in non-EU study-related immigration over the two years leading up to June 2023.

Over the last decade, emigration of non-EU and EU nationals has fluctuated. Non-EU national levels of emigration show early indications to be at a similar level to pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) levels. Meanwhile, provisional estimates for EU nationals indicate that emigration is declining and is at similar levels seen at the time of the EU referendum vote in 2016.

The decrease in levels of emigration of British nationals between YE June 2021 and YE September 2021 should be treated with caution as it coincides with a change in methods (see note 4, Figure 2). From YE September 2021 we use International Passenger Survey (IPS) data to estimate British migration as it remains the best source available for this time period. For more information on further research that we are undertaking to develop administrative data-based methods see our International migration research, progress update: November 2023 article.

To find out more about emigration over the inter census period see our Estimating UK international migration article.

Figure 2: Provisional estimates indicate increased emigration of non-EU nationals in the last year, this follows increased levels of immigration

Number of non-EU, EU, and British nationals emigrating out of the UK, between YE June 2012 and YE June 2023

Notes:

1. Read more on the methods, data sources and data quality in Section 12: Strengths and limitations.
2. YE: year ending.
3. Non-EU figures are based on Home Office Borders and Immigration data, EU figures are based on Registration and Population Interaction Database (RAPID) data received from Department for Work and Pensions and HM Revenue and Customs, and British nationals figures are based on the International Passenger Survey (IPS). See Section 11: Measuring the data for more details.
4. Estimates for British nationals for YE June 2012 to YE June 2021 are based on evidence of population changes between the 2011 Census and Census 2021. Estimates for YE September 2021 onwards remain based on IPS data.
5. Numbers have been rounded to the nearest thousand. Totals may not equal the sum of individual parts.

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Net international migration (which is the difference calculated between immigration and emigration) added to the UK population in the year ending (YE) June 2023. This means that over the past two years net migration has been at the highest level we have seen. Provisional estimates, which provide an early indication of migration, suggest that net migration was 672,000 in the YE June 2023.

Net migration for YE June 2023 is slightly higher compared with YE June 2022 (607,000) but is down on our updated estimate for YE December 2022 (745,000). While it is too early to say if this is the start of a new downward trend, these more recent estimates indicate a slowing of immigration coupled with increasing emigration.

The increase in overall net migration since the introduction of the new immigration system in January 2021 is entirely driven by the change in net migration of non-EU nationals. This has increased from 179,000 in YE June 2019 to 768,000 in YE June 2023. This overall change across the time period is because of increased numbers of people arriving for work, to study and for humanitarian reasons.

In the YE June 2023 non-EU immigration arriving for work accounted for 33%, study was 39% and humanitarian reasons was 9%. Over the last year net migration increased by 65,000. This was because of positive net migration of non-EU nationals, while EU nationals and British nationals’ net migration was negative.

Before the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, net migration of EU nationals was positive, so they were adding to the UK population. In the YE June 2023 net migration of EU nationals was negative 86,000, compared with negative 133,000 in YE June 2022. This means that more EU nationals left the UK in YE June 2023 than were arriving, but not as many as the previous year.

Net migration of British nationals in YE June 2023 was negative 10,000, a decrease compared with YE June 2022, where net migration was positive 20,000. Current estimates for British nationals are predominantly based on the International Passenger Survey (IPS) and should be treated with caution, whereas we have used evidence from population change between censuses to inform the updated estimates for between 2012 and 2021 as shown in our Estimating UK international migration: 2012 to 2021 article.

Figure 3: Before the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, migration was relatively stable; migration has increased sharply since 2021 because of a rise of non-EU immigration

Net migration of non-EU, EU, and British nationals in the UK, between YE June 2012 and YE June 2023

Notes:

1. Read more on the methods, data sources and data quality in Section 12: Strengths and limitations.
2. YE: year ending.
3. Non-EU figures are based on Home Office Borders and Immigration data, EU figures are based on Registration and Population Interaction Database (RAPID) data received from Department for Work and Pensions and HM Revenue and Customs, and British nationals figures are based on the International Passenger Survey (IPS). See Section 11: Measuring the data for more details.
4. Estimates for British nationals for YE June 2012 to YE June 2021 are based on evidence of population changes between the 2011 Census and Census 2021. Estimates for YE September 2021 onwards remain based on IPS data.
5. Numbers have been rounded to the nearest thousand. Totals may not equal the sum of individual parts.

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Provisional estimates that provide an early indication of migration suggest that net migration was 672,000 in the YE June 2023. This is slightly higher compared with YE June 2022 (607,000), but down on our updated estimate for YE December 2022 (745,000). The slight increase since YE June 2022 is driven by an increase in immigration and an increase in emigration over the same period.

Innovative new measures of uncertainty suggest that provisional estimates of net migration have a range of 520,000 to 790,000 in the YE June 2023. This range, representing the minimum and maximum values from our uncertainty estimates, addresses some of the uncertainty within these timely provisional estimates, which rely on assumptions that are informed by past behaviour. The assumptions do not account for all sources of potential error in estimates of net migration. For more information on how these uncertainty ranges have been compiled and their limitations see our Research update.

Figure 4: Increased net migration since 2021 is driven by an increase in immigration; a small increase in emigration in the last year means provisional estimates of net migration in the most recent year are a small increase from the year ending June 2022

Net migration, immigration and emigration in the UK, between YE June 2018 and YE June 2023

Notes:

1. Read more on the methods, data sources and data quality in Section 12: Strengths and limitations.
2. YE: year ending.
3. Non-EU figures are based on Home Office Borders and Immigration data, EU figures are based on Registration and Population Interaction Database (RAPID) data received from Department for Work and Pensions and HM Revenue and Customs, and British nationals figures are based on the International Passenger Survey (IPS). See Section 11: Measuring the data for more details.
4. Numbers have been rounded to the nearest thousand. Totals may not equal the sum of individual parts.
5. Innovative measures of uncertainty are available for YE June 2022 to YE June 2023 only.
6. Confidence intervals are the 95% confidence interval. The higher confidence intervals represented by the darker shade show the range between the 25% and 75% confidence intervals. Lower confidence intervals represented by the lighter shade shows the additional 2.5% and 97.5% intervals.

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The increase in non-EU immigration since year ending (YE) June 2021 was driven by people arriving long-term for work, study and through humanitarian routes. In the latest year the increase is mainly attributed to more people arriving long-term for work than the previous year (at 322,000 in the YE June 2023), mainly those on health and care work visas. However, we are now seeing fewer British Nationals (Overseas) (BN(O)) arriving from Hong Kong and even fewer people from Ukraine than in the YE June 2022.

The method used to calculate a person's reason for emigration is based upon their initial visa used to enter the UK. The small increase in total emigration of non-EU nationals between the YE June 2022 and YE June 2023 can mainly be attributed to departures of people who initially arrived on a study visa (making up 58% of non-EU emigration in 2023 compared with 50% in 2022). This is driven by an increase in the number of study dependants emigrating.

While provisional estimates indicate that net migration is at a similar level in the YE June 2023 as the YE June 2022, the composition of net migration is changing. In the YE June 2023 this is being driven by those arriving on work-related visas that make up 36% of total net migration. This is compared with 23% in the YE June 2022 (Figure 5).

Figure 5: The increase in non-EU immigration in year ending June 2023 was mainly driven by migrants coming for work

Long-term immigration, emigration and net migration in the UK of non-EU nationals by reason for immigration, between YE June 2019 and YE June 2023

Notes:

1. Read more on the methods, data sources and data quality in Section 12: Strengths and limitations.
2. YE: year ending.
3. Numbers have been rounded to the nearest thousand. Totals may not equal the sum of individual parts.

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Work

Those immigrating long-term on work-related visas (main applicants and dependants) made up 33% of non-EU long-term immigration in the YE June 2023, with an estimated 322,000 arrivals. This is compared with 198,000 in YE June 2022. This is split fairly evenly between main applicants (169,000) and dependants (154,000).

The Home Office's statistics report, Why do people come to the UK? To work, shows growth in long-term sponsored work visas following the introduction of the "Skilled Worker" and "Skilled Worker - Health and Care" visas in 2020. Health and Care work visas were the most common type of work visa that dependants came to the UK on and is driving the increase in immigration of those on work dependant visas (from 86,000 in YE June 2022 to 154,000 in YE June 2023).

Home Office data show that Indian nationals represented 38% of all dependants issued a work visa alongside main applicants, followed by Nigerian and Zimbabwean nationals (17% and 9%, respectively).

People initially arriving long-term on work-related visas made up 22% of non-EU long-term emigration in YE June 2023, with an estimated 45,000 leaving. This is compared with 31,000 in YE June 2022. This is driven by both main applicants and dependants.

Our provisional estimates indicate that we have seen an increase in the net migration of people for work reasons (from 168,000 in the YE June 2022 to 278,000 in YE June 2023). This means the net migration for work makes up a larger proportion in the YE June 2023 (36%) compared with the YE June 2022 (23%).

Study

Those immigrating long-term on study-related visas (main applicants and dependants) made up 39% of non-EU long-term immigration at 378,000 in the YE June 2023. This is an increase from 320,000 in the YE June 2022. This increase is mainly attributed to dependants (from 58,000 in YE June 2022 to 96,000 in YE June 2023). The Home Office's statistics report, Why do people come to the UK? To study, suggests that this is because of an increase in the number of visas granted to dependants from Nigeria and India.

The increase in the number of people coming to the UK to study in the last two years may partly be reflected in the attraction of the new Graduate visa route. This visa route allows international students to apply to work in the UK for at least two years after completing their studies.

In YE June 2023, people initially arriving on study-related visas accounted for 58% of long-term emigration of non-EU nationals at 115,000 This is an increase from 64,000 (50% of long-term emigration) in YE June 2022. This is because of increases in both main applicants (from 55,000 in YE June 2022 to 88,000 in YE June 2023) and dependants (from 9,000 in YE June 22 to 27,000 in YE June 2023).

Because of the increases seen in the immigration of students in the recent time periods, we would expect emigration to continue to rise as those students come to the end of their studies. However, research in our Reason for international migration, international students update: November 2023 article suggest that more recent cohorts of students are staying in the UK for longer so we will continue to monitor this trend to see how it evolves over time.

The increase in both immigration and emigration of international students means the net migration of this group remain at similar levels in the YE June 2022 (256,000) and the YE June 2023 (263,000).

Further research into possible methods for quantifying students in our net migration estimates using different measures has been carried out. More information is available in our Reason for international migration, international students update: November 2023 article.

Humanitarian routes

Migration events such as people immigrating from Ukraine and British Nationals (Overseas) (BN(O)) arriving from Hong Kong, as well as resettled refugees, asylum seekers and irregular migrants are included in our estimates of migration. To find out more information about each of the populations see our previous Long-term international migration, provisional: year ending December 2022 bulletin and the Home Office’s Statistics on Ukrainians in the UK report.

In YE June 2023, people arriving long-term on humanitarian routes accounted for 9% of non-EU long-term immigration, with an estimated 83,000 immigrating on these visas. This was a decrease from 157,000 in YE June 2022, when these visa types accounted for 19% of total non-EU immigration.

Ukrainians and BN(O) accounted for 8% of non-EU immigration in YE June 2023. An estimated 80,000 people arrived long-term on these visas, of which 47,000 were BN(O) and 33,000 were Ukrainians.

The highest number of long-term arrivals on the BN(O) scheme were seen in the YE June 2022 (57,000). Those arriving long-term on Ukraine Schemes peaked in the YE December 2022 (109,000). Long-term arrivals from Ukraine have declined and long-term arrivals from BN(O) are now a bigger proportion of Humanitarian route immigration in the YE June 2023.

In the YE June 2023, 3,000 people immigrated long-term through resettlement, compared with 20,000 in YE June 2022. These figures from the most recent year are largely made up of the Afghan Relocations and Assistance Policy (ARAP).

Ukraine nationals were eligible to come to the UK for humanitarian purposes from March 2022. These individuals would need to stay in the UK for at least 12 months, then subsequently leave and remain out of the UK for at least 12 months to be a long-term emigrant. Therefore, we would not expect to see any emigration for this group in the YE June 2023.

The decrease in immigration of those on humanitarian routes means that net migration of this group has also declined from 157,000 in YE June 2022 to 83,000 in YE June 2023.

Asylum

In the YE June 2023, 90,000 people immigrated long-term for asylum. This was an increase from 75,000 in YE June 2022. For further information on our methods and assumptions used to include asylum seekers in our estimates see our research paper.

People who arrive through irregular routes and then claim asylum are included in our estimates as asylum applicants. The Home Office’s How many people do we grant protection to? article shows that in the YE June 2023, 90% of small boat arrivals (40,386) claimed asylum or were recorded as a dependant on an asylum application.

People who had arrived in the UK as asylum seekers made up 1% of non-EU emigration, at an estimated 2,000 in YE June 2023, compared with 1,000 in YE June 2022.

The increase in people immigrating long-term for asylum has contributed to a rise in net migration for the group, with net migration increasing from 73,000 in YE June 2022 to 88,000 in YE June 2023.

Family

Those immigrating long-term on family visas accounted for 7% of non-EU long-term immigration in YE 2023, with an estimated 70,000 arriving for family compared with 61,000 in YE June 2022.

People who had arrived for “family” accounted for 15% of non-EU long-term emigration in YE June 2023, with an estimated 31,000 leaving for family, compared with 26,000 in YE June 2022.

The increase in both immigration and emigration for family means the net migration of this group remain at similar levels in the YE June 2022 (35,000) and the YE June 2023 (39,000).

Other

Those immigrating long-term on “other” visas accounted for 3% of non-EU immigration at an estimated 25,000 in YE June 2023. This was a decrease from YE June 2022 (37,000).

People who had arrived on “other” visas accounted for 4% of non-EU emigration, at an estimated 7,000 in YE June 2023. This was an increase from 5,000 in YE June 2022.

The net migration of those on “other” visas was 17,000 in the YE June 2023. This was a decrease from the YE June 2022 (31,000).

For more information on “other” visas, see Section 10: Glossary.

In the year ending (YE) June 2023, an estimated 50,000 EU nationals immigrating to the UK came for work, compared with 48,000 in YE June 2022 (Figure 6). Study accounted for 27% of EU nationals immigration. This was a small decrease from YE June 2022 where study arrivals accounted for 31%. In the YE June 2023, EU nationals immigrating to the UK for family made up 5% and “other” reasons accounted for 29%.

The method used to calculate a person's reason for emigration is based upon their reason for initially coming to the UK. People initially arriving for work accounted for 54% of EU long-term emigration in YE June 2023, an estimated 117,000 compared with 146,000 in YE June 2022. People who had initially arrived in the UK for study accounted for 10% of EU emigration at an estimated 21,000 in YE June 2023. This was a decrease from 32,000 in YE June 2022. In the YE June 2023, EU nationals who initially arrived for family made up 14% of EU emigration and “other” reasons accounted for 22%.

In the YE June 2023 net migration of EU nationals was negative 87,000, this was driven by the emigration of EU nationals who originally arrived in the UK for work reasons.

Figure 6: Work continued to be the largest contributor to EU immigration in the year ending June 2023

Long-term immigration, emigration and net migration in the UK of EU nationals by reason for immigration, between YE June 2022 and YE June 2023

Notes:

1. Read more on the methods, data sources and data quality in Section 12: Strengths and limitations.
2. YE: year ending.
3. Numbers have been rounded to the nearest thousand. Totals may not equal the sum of individual parts.

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In YE June 2023, an estimated 26% of British nationals immigrating to the UK came for work, an estimated 21,000 arrivals compared with 35,000 in YE June 2022 (Figure 7). In the YE June 2023 study accounted for 5% of British national’s immigration. In the YE June 2023, British nationals immigrating to the UK for family made up 6% and “other” reasons accounted for 64%. Other reasons include going home to live, other and no reason stated (including non-responses). For more information on “other” reasons for migration for British nationals, see Section 10: Glossary.

The method used to calculate a person's reason for emigration is based upon their reason for initially coming to the UK. In the YE June 2023, people who initially arrived for “other” reasons accounted for 95% of long-term emigration of British nationals.

In the YE June 2023 net migration of British nationals was negative 10,000, this was mainly driven by the emigration of British nationals who originally arrived in the UK for “other” reasons.

Figure 7: “Other” continued to account for the largest proportion of British nationals immigrating to the UK in the year ending June 2023

Long-term immigration, emigration and net migration in the UK of British nationals by reason for immigration, between YE June 2022 and YE June 2023

Notes:

1. Read more on the methods, data sources and data quality in Section 12: Strengths and limitations.
2. YE: year ending.
3. Numbers have been rounded to the nearest thousand. Totals may not equal the sum of individual parts.

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We are transforming population and migration statistics, developing methods that make more use of administrative data. Understanding the strengths and limitations of each data source is an important part of this transformed system. See our How we are improving population and migration statistics article and our Methods to produce provisional long-term international migration estimates methodology for more information.

As part of the quality assurance of our new methods our Estimating UK international migration: 2012 to 2021 article provides comparisons with other sources to demonstrate confidence in these updated estimates up to year ending (YE) June 2021. In this bulletin, we have included data up to YE June 2023 to show comparisons with the most recent time points. The YE June 2023 estimates are provisional and provide an early indication of migration at this point in time, however in comparing with other sources of information on migration trends we can have confidence in these initial estimates of immigration (Figure 8).

Figure 8: Estimates of non-EU immigration compared with other available data sources

Breakdown of alternative sources of non-EU immigration estimates between 2018 and 2023

Notes:

1. Read more on the methods, data sources and data quality in Section 12: Strengths and limitations.
2. YE: year ending.
3. Numbers have been rounded to the nearest thousand. Totals may not equal the sum of individual parts.
4. Census 2021 non-EU immigration estimation is based on non-UK-born residents who arrived in the last 12 months (from March 2020) in England or Wales and intend to stay for 12 months or more, and the passport they hold.
5. Census is England and Wales only. The other data sources are UK flows.
6. National Insurance number (NINo) registrations are generally required for any adult overseas national looking to claim work or benefits, so will include short-term migrants and people who may have been in the country for a while before registering. We have previously published a note on the difference between NINo registrations explaining the differences between NINo registrations and our long-term international migration estimates. NINo Registration National Statistics are published by the DWP in their NINo allocations to adult overseas nationals entering the UK collection.

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The estimates covering the periods year ending (YE) December 2022 and YE June 2023 are provisional and give an early indicator of international migration during this time. We update (revise) these estimates when we have more data to confirm people’s long-term migration status. This enables us to meet a broader set of user needs. Further details on revisions can be found in our Revisions policy.

We have revised estimates from YE June 2021 to YE December 2022. The revisions to estimates of migration for YE December 2021, YE June 2022 and YE December 2022, that were published in May 2023, are shown in Table 1.

These revisions are primarily driven by having more complete Home Office Borders and Immigration (HOBI) data for non-EU nationals, this now includes complete travel data up to June 2023. We also have more complete data from the Registration and Populations Interactions Database (RAPID) for EU nationals, this includes activities with the benefits and earnings systems up to April 2023. In addition, we have made some small, planned improvements to our systems for estimating non-EU nationals, improvements to the assumptions we make to produce provisional estimates, and a small, planned improvement to the temporal disaggregation we use to estimate the migration of EU nationals.

These improvements mean that previously published total net migration estimates for YE June 2022 remain at a very similar level of 607,000 (revised by less than 1,000), however non-EU net migration is revised upwards by 82,000 and EU net migration revised downwards by 82,000.

The same improvements mean that for YE December 2022, our net migration estimates are revised upwards by 139,000 to 745,000. Immigration has been revised upwards by 71,000 to 1,234,000 and emigration has been revised downwards by 68,000 to 489,000. This is driven by a 105,000 increase in immigration of non-EU nationals, mainly as a result of using improved assumptions on the proportion of arrivals that will stay long term, and having complete travel data for January to June 2022. We have also revised immigration of EU nationals down by 35,000.

For the YE December 2022, we have revised emigration downwards by 68,000. This is driven by a 106,000 decrease in emigration of non-EU nationals and a 37,000 increase in emigration of EU nationals.

For a more detailed explanation of the complete data and small, planned improvements to our systems for estimating EU and non-EU migration, see our International Migration Research, progress update: November 2023 article.

We currently publish international migration estimates twice per year, at the end of May and at the end of November. We anticipate revisions to both YE December 2022 and YE June 2023 estimates to be published in May 2024. This will be driven by having completed travel information for non-EU nationals arriving up to December 2022, and further travel information for those arriving up to June 2023. We will also deliver an improved method for non-EU emigration to account for those who transition onto another visa.

Administrative data

Collections of data maintained for administrative reasons, for example, registrations, transactions, or record keeping. They are used for operational purposes and their statistical use is secondary. These sources are typically managed by other government bodies.

Asylum applicants

Asylum applicant (also referred to as "asylum seeker") is someone who makes a claim to be recognised as a refugee under the Refugee Convention.

"Asylum" estimates in this bulletin refer to the long-term international migration of people who have applied (that is, made a claim) for asylum in the UK.

An asylum-related return is one where there has been an asylum claim at some stage prior to the return. For more information on this, see the User Guide to Home Office Immigration Statistics.

British national

A British national is person who holds a type of British (English, Scottish, Welsh, and Northern Irish) nationality. There are six different types of British nationality:

• British citizenship
• British Overseas Territories citizen
• British overseas citizen
• British subject
• British national (Overseas)
• British protected person

For the purposes of our estimates, we have treated British national (Overseas) (BN(O)) as a separate category.

British national (overseas) (BN(O))

Someone who was a British Overseas Territories citizen by connection with Hong Kong lost that citizenship on 30 June 1997, when sovereignty returned to China. However, such a person was able to register as a British national (overseas) (BN(O)) before 1 July 1997. For more information, see the Types of British nationality guide on GOV.UK.

On 31 January 2021, the UK launched a bespoke immigration route for British nationals overseas (BN(O)) status holders and their families from Hong Kong.

Citizenship

Citizenship is a status that identifies a person's formal membership of a state, entitling them to hold a country's passport.

The measures, nationality and citizenship, are often used interchangeably. The measures can differ across countries. To use British citizenship and nationality as an example: British citizenship is a type of British nationality. This means that someone can have a British nationality without being a British citizen.

Designated visa classifications

The grouping of people who immigrated into the UK under visas classified as:

• work
• study
• family
• other
• humanitarian routes
• asylum

EU

EU is the sum of EU14, EU8, and EU2, plus Malta, Cyprus and Croatia (from 1 July 2013). British nationals are not included in these numbers.

EU2

EU2 is Romania and Bulgaria.

EU8

EU8 is Czechia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia.

EU14

EU14 is Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Republic of Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain and Sweden.

Other EU

Other EU is Malta, Cyprus and Croatia (from 2013).

Home Office Borders and Immigration data

Combines data from different administrative sources to link an individual's travel in or out of the UK with their immigration history. This system has data for all non-European Economic Area (non-EEA) visa holders.

International Passenger Survey (IPS)

Our International Passenger Survey (IPS) collects information about passengers entering and leaving the UK and has been running continuously since 1961. The IPS was resumed in January 2021, after being suspended since March 2020 because of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Currently, we use it for our British national estimates and for providing information on reason for migration.

Long-term international migration

Long-term international migration (LTIM) statistics estimate the flow (or movement) of migrants to and from the UK. This bulletin uses the UN-recommended definition of a long-term international migrant, as explained in the Recommendations on Statistics of International Migration paper (PDF, 5MB). It is defined as "A person who moves to a country other than that of his or her usual residence for a period of at least a year (12 months), so that the country of destination effectively becomes his or her new country of usual residence."

A “long-term international immigrant” in this bulletin refers to a person who has moved to the UK from abroad for a period of at least a year.

A “long-term international emigrant” in this bulletin refers to a person who has left the UK to go to another country for a period of at least a year.

Nationality

Nationality of a country is a legal status that usually gives a person a particular set of rights relating to that country.

Net migration

Net migration is the difference between the number of people coming to live in the UK (immigration) and the number of people leaving to live elsewhere (emigration). When more people are arriving in the UK than leaving, net migration is above zero and so adds to the non-UK population.

Non-EU

Non-EU is the sum of the rest of the world, including the rest of Europe. British nationals are excluded from these numbers.

"Other" reason for migration

Non-EU

For non-EU migrants, the reason for migration is based on their visa type. "Other" reason includes people who immigrated into the UK under visas classified as:

• admin
• visit
• other
• settlement
• protection
• those that did not fit into any of our designated classifications

EU and British

For EU and British migrants, the reason for migration is based on responses to the IPS survey. The IPS asks migrants to identify their main reason for migration. "Other" reason includes:

• going home to live
• other
• no reason stated, including non-responses and the non-specific response "emigrating or immigrating"

Registration and Population Interaction Database (RAPID)

Registration and Population Interaction Database (RAPID) is a database created by the Department for Work and Pensions. It provides a single coherent view of interactions across the breadth of benefits and earnings datasets for anyone with a National Insurance number (NINo).

Ukraine visa support schemes

The Ukraine Family Scheme allows applicants to join family members or extend their stay in the UK. The Ukraine Sponsorship Scheme allows Ukrainian nationals and their family members to come to the UK if they have a named sponsor under the Homes for Ukraine Scheme. The Ukraine Extension Scheme allows Ukrainian nationals and their immediate family members to apply for permission to stay in the UK. The reason for migration will predominantly only show the out-of-country routes, as opposed to the extension routes.

Data sources and methods

Current and previous methods are described in our updated Methods to produce provisional long-term international migration estimates methodology.

We announced in our August 2020 Migration Statistics Quarterly Report (MSQR) that we would continue to develop methods using administrative data, given the known limitations of the International Passenger Survey (IPS). These estimates are produced using methods that are based predominantly on administrative data. Building on methods introduced in our Long-term international migration, provisional: year ending December 2022 bulletin, we have implemented a number of improvements.

Further details on our progress were published in July 2022 in our International migration statistical design: progress report article.

Reference Period

These estimates cover the period of the year ending (YE) June 2012 to the YE June 2023. Information from Census 2021, alongside available administrative data, provide the clearest picture of international migration flows over the last decade.

Non-EU nationals

Non-EU migration refers to estimates of migration for people who do not hold British or EU nationality. We use Home Office Borders and Immigration data that combine visa and travel information to link an individual's travel movements into and out of the country. More information is provided within the User Guide to: Immigration system statistics on GOV.UK.

To estimate non-EU immigration, we have developed a method that uses an individual's first arrival and last departure dates to approximate their length of stay in the UK within the period for which they have a valid visa. Individuals whose stay lasts 12 months or more are classified as long-term immigrants. For emigration, we identify previous long-term immigrants with a last departure from the UK during the reference period and record them as long-term emigrants if they do not return to the UK within 12 months, or if they only return for a short-term stay. More detailed information can be found in our Methods to produce provisional long-term international migration estimates methodology.

EU nationals

The latest methodology to estimate the migration of EU nationals is based on our Methods for measuring international migration using RAPID administrative data methodology. The Registration and Population Interaction Database (RAPID) currently provides the best insight into the migration of EU nationals.

To provide the best estimates for EU immigration, we continue to use a methodology based on RAPID. We apply two adjustments to the estimates to account for those populations who have fewer or no interactions with the earnings and benefits systems. These adjustments are for student migration and people under the age of 16 years, both of which the RAPID data alone would not fully capture. A more detailed explanation of the adjustments applied to the RAPID data can be found in our Methods to produce provisional long-term international migration estimates methodology.

British nationals

While the most recent long-term international migration estimates for non-UK nationals are based on administrative data, there is currently no comparable administrative source available that measures the international migration movements of British nationals. However, census data provide an alternative source for estimating international migration of British nationals over the decade from YE June 2012 to YE June 2021, by looking at changes in the UK-born population and adjusting this to estimate migration of British nationals. We have therefore updated the back series of estimates of British nationals for this period using this approach.

International migration estimates of British nationals for the YE September 2021 onwards remain based on the IPS, while we undertake further research to provide an administrative data-based alternative.

Further details on our current and previous methods are available in our Methods to produce provisional long-term international migration estimates methodology.

The estimates are classified as official statistics in development. In addition, the estimates for the most recent time period in our data series (year ending (YE) June 2023) are provisional and provide users with an early indication of migration during this period. Migration patterns have been changing since the end of the coronavirus (COVID 19) pandemic and with the introduction of the new immigration system in January 2021. Therefore, we have had to update the assumptions that feed into our provisional estimates to reflect this changing behaviour. For more information, see our International migration research, progress update: November 2023 article. Therefore, these estimates will be subject to a range of factors, which make any estimates of net migration more uncertain at present. As outlined in our Population and International Migration Statistics Revisions Policy methodology, these estimates are subject to change, both because of methods refinement as well as the availability of more data.

For the first time, we have presented innovative methods to quantify non-sampling error associated with several components of the admin-based migration estimates (ABME) process. This has focused on the uncertainty introduced by the assumptions used to produce timely provisional estimates of migration, including the adjustments made to estimates of non-EU migration and EU migration. In addition, we have included uncertainty for survey-based estimates for British Nationals using IPS data. These define a plausible range, including associated probabilities, where the true value of international migration is likely to lie, if our simulations accurately included all the main sources of uncertainty. As we have not yet included all sources of uncertainty, these intervals should be interpreted with caution and only represent a partial measure of uncertainty with ABME. For more information see our International migration research, progress update: November 2023 article.

Our release coincides with the publication of the Home Office’s latest immigration system statistics on GOV.UK for the period to the end of June 2023. Numbers of visas granted may indicate trends in the arrivals of non-EU long-term migrants but cannot indicate the net effect after further stays and emigration are taken into account. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) and the Home Office continue to work together closely to produce a consistent insight into UK international migration.

Further information on strengths and limitations of the data sources are included in our Methods to produce provisional long-term international migration estimates methodology.

Impact of coronavirus (COVID-19)

Operational processes were affected during the coronavirus pandemic, which influenced the collection of some administrative data.

The National Insurance number (NINo) registration service was partially suspended in March 2020 for certain customers, with a phased return to normal operations completed by April 2021.

Some of the trends seen in EU migration from the Registration and Population Interaction Database (RAPID) may have been affected by these restrictions, where some migrants may have arrived in the UK, but were unable to register for their NINo. Therefore, they may not have been included in the estimates from RAPID.

For more information on the suspension of the NINo application process, see the Department for Work and Pensions’ National Insurance numbers allocated to adult overseas nationals to March 2023 publication on GOV.UK.