UK labour market: February 2019

• Estimates from the Labour Force Survey show that, between July to September 2018 and October to December 2018, the number of people in work increased, while the number of unemployed people and the number of people aged from 16 to 64 years not working and not seeking nor available to work (economically inactive) both fell.

• There were an estimated 32.60 million people in work, 167,000 more than for July to September 2018 and 444,000 more than for a year earlier.

• The employment rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 years who were in work) was estimated at 75.8%, higher than for a year earlier (75.2%) and the joint-highest since comparable estimates began in 1971.

• There were an estimated 844,000 people (not seasonally adjusted) in employment on zero-hours contracts in their main job, 57,000 fewer than for a year earlier.

• There were an estimated 1.36 million unemployed people (people not in work but seeking and available to work), 14,000 fewer than for July to September 2018 and 100,000 fewer than for a year earlier.

• The unemployment rate (the number of unemployed people as a proportion of all employed and unemployed people) was estimated at 4.0%, it has not been lower since December 1974 to February 1975.

• There were an estimated 8.63 million people aged from 16 to 64 years who were economically inactive (not working and not seeking nor available to work), 94,000 fewer than for July to September 2018 and 153,000 fewer than for a year earlier.

• The economic inactivity rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 years who were economically inactive) was estimated at 20.9%, the lowest figure since comparable estimates began in 1971.

• Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in nominal terms (that is, not adjusted for price inflation) increased by 3.4% both excluding and including bonuses compared with a year earlier.

• Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms (that is, adjusted for price inflation) increased by 1.2% excluding bonuses, and by 1.3% including bonuses, compared with a year earlier.

Table 1 and Figure 1 show the latest estimates, for October to December 2018, for employment, unemployment and economic inactivity and show how these estimates compare with the previous quarter (July to September 2018) and the previous year (October to December 2017). Comparing the estimates for October to December 2018 with those for July to September 2018 provides the most robust short-term comparison. See Section 3 of this statistical bulletin for more information.

Improvements planned for the next edition of this release

We are planning to replace the current UK labour market bulletin with a much shorter bulletin called Labour market overview, UK, which will focus on the main labour market trends across the range of available indicators.

This new bulletin will be accompanied by three new bulletins, which will provide more in-depth analysis. These bulletins will be called:

• Employment in the UK

• Average weekly earnings in Great Britain

• Jobs and vacancies in the UK

Further details are available on request from Households and Labour Market Division, Office for National Statistics (Telephone: +44 (0)1633 455400 Email: labour.market@ons.gov.uk).

Revisions to estimates derived from the Labour Force Survey

There have been revisions to estimates derived from the Labour Force Survey (including estimates of employment, unemployment and economic inactivity) back to June to August 2011, resulting from taking on board the latest population estimates and from a review of the seasonal adjustment process. In addition, a boost to the Northern Ireland Labour Force Survey sample will have caused some minor revisions to estimates derived from that survey from the November 2017 to January 2018 time period.

About labour market statuses

Everybody aged 16 years or over is either employed, unemployed or economically inactive. The employment estimates include all people in paid work including those working part-time. People not working are classed as unemployed if they have been looking for work within the last four weeks and are able to start work within the next two weeks. A common misconception is that the unemployment statistics are a count of people on benefits; this is not the case as they include unemployed people not claiming benefits. Jobless people who have not been looking for work within the last four weeks or who are unable to start work within the next two weeks are classed as economically inactive. Examples of economically inactive people include people not looking for work because they are students, looking after the family or home, because of illness or disability or because they have retired.

Making comparisons with earlier data derived from the Labour Force Survey

Estimates of employment, unemployment, economic inactivity, hours worked and redundancies are derived from the Labour Force Survey (LFS), a survey of households. The most robust estimates of short-term movements in these estimates are obtained by comparing the estimates for October to December 2018 with the estimates for July to September 2018, which were first published on 13 November 2018. This provides a more robust estimate than comparing with the estimates for September to November 2018. This is because the October and November 2018 data are included within both estimates, so effectively observed differences are those between the individual months of September and December 2018. The LFS is sampled such that it is representative of the UK population over a three- month period, not for single month periods.

Accuracy and reliability of survey estimates

Most of the figures in this statistical bulletin come from surveys of households or businesses and are therefore estimates rather than precise figures. Further information is available in the Quality and methodology section of this statistical bulletin.

Where to find explanatory information

A Guide to labour market statistics, which includes a Glossary, is available.

Things you need to know about employment

Employment measures the number of people in work and differs from the number of jobs because some people have more than one job. Employment mainly consists of paid employees and self-employed people but there are also two minor categories – unpaid family workers and people on government-supported training and employment programmes.

Unpaid family workers are people who work in a family business who do not receive a formal wage or salary but benefit from the profits of that business. Unpaid family carers and people doing unpaid housework are not included in the employment estimates.

The government-supported training and employment programmes series does not include all people on these programmes; it only includes people engaging in any form of work, work experience or work-related training who are not included in the employees or self-employed series. People on these programmes not engaging in any form of work, work experience or work-related training are not included in the employment estimates; they are classified as unemployed or economically inactive.

Commentary

The proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 years in work is known as the employment rate. Figure 2 shows the estimated employment rates for all people, and for men and women, aged from 16 to 64 years since comparable estimates began in 1971. The lowest estimated employment rate for all people aged from 16 to 64 years was 65.6% in 1983, during the economic downturn of the early 1980s. The employment rates for both men and women have been generally increasing since early 2012. For the latest time period, October to December 2018, the employment rate for all people aged from 16 to 64 years was 75.8%, the joint-highest since comparable estimates began in 1971.

Figure 3 looks in more detail at the estimated employment rate for all people aged from 16 to 64 years for the last five years.

The estimates for October to December 2018 show that:

• 75.8% of all people aged from 16 to 64 years were in work, the joint-highest employment rate for all people since comparable estimates began in 1971

• 80.3% of men aged from 16 to 64 years were in work; the employment rate for men has not been higher since January to March 1991

• 71.4% of women aged from 16 to 64 years were in work, the highest employment rate for women since comparable estimates began in 1971

The increase in the employment rate for women over the last few years has been partly due to ongoing changes to the State Pension age for women, resulting in fewer women retiring between the ages of 60 and 65 years.

For October to December 2018, there were an estimated 32.60 million people aged 16 years and over in work, 167,000 more than for July to September 2018 and 444,000 more than for a year earlier.

Figure 4 shows that the estimated annual increase in the number of people in work (444,000) was almost entirely due to more people in full-time employment (426,000).

Comparing the estimates for employees and self-employed people for October to December 2018 with those for a year earlier:

• employees increased by 415,000 to 27.59 million (84.6% of all people in work)

• self-employed people increased by 63,000 to 4.84 million (14.8% of all people in work)

Employees and self-employed people do not account for all people in employment as there are two minor additional categories (unpaid family workers and people on government-supported training and employment programmes). Further information is available at the beginning of this section.

There were an estimated 844,000 people (not seasonally adjusted) in employment on zero-hours contracts in their main job, 57,000 fewer than for a year earlier. Detailed estimates are available at Dataset EMP17.

Comparing the estimates for employment by nationality (not seasonally adjusted) for October to December 2018 with those for a year earlier:

• UK nationals working in the UK increased by 372,000 to 29.10 million

• EU nationals working in the UK fell by 61,000 to 2.27 million

• Non-EU nationals working in the UK increased by 130,000 to 1.29 million

Where to find data about employment

Employment estimates are available at Tables 1 and 3 of the PDF version of this statistical bulletin and at datasets A02 SA and EMP01 SA.

Estimates of employment, unemployment and economic inactivity for UK and non-UK workers are available at Non-UK workers in the labour market and at datasets A12 and EMP06.

International comparisons of employment rates are available at Table 17 of the PDF version of this statistical bulletin and at dataset A10.

Historic estimates of employment (which do not have National Statistics status) have been published by the Bank of England in the spreadsheet A millennium of macroeconomic data version 3.1 (at worksheets A49 and A50).

Things you need to know about public and private sector employment

Public sector employment measures the number of people in paid work in the public sector. The public sector comprises central government, local government and public corporations. Estimates of public sector employment are obtained from information provided by public sector organisations.

Private sector employment is estimated as the difference between total employment, sourced from the Labour Force Survey, and public sector employment.

Comparisons of public and private sector employment over time are impacted by changes to the composition of these sectors. For example, if a publicly owned body is privatised, public sector employment will fall and private sector employment will increase by an equivalent amount. This is known as a reclassification effect. At Table 4 of the PDF version of this statistical bulletin and at dataset EMP02 we therefore publish estimates of public and private sector employment excluding the effects of major, but not all, reclassifications alongside estimates of total public and private sector employment.

Commentary

Estimates of public and private sector employment for September 2018 were first published in the December 2018 edition of this statistical bulletin. In this month’s bulletin, there have been revisions to estimates of private sector employment, but not to estimates of public sector employment, from 2011. These revisions to estimates of private sector employment have resulted from revisions to estimates of total employment sourced from the Labour Force Survey.

For September 2018, there were an estimated 5.36 million people employed in the public sector, little changed (down 2,000) compared with June 2018; this very small fall was entirely due to the transfer of Scottish housing associations to the private sector. Excluding the Scottish housing associations transfer, the number of people employed in the public sector was estimated to have increased by 20,000 between June and September 2018.

Between September 2017 and September 2018, public sector employment was estimated to have fallen by 120,000; this large fall was entirely due to the transfer of housing associations in England (in December 2017), Wales (in June 2018) and Scotland (in September 2018) to the private sector. Excluding the housing associations transfers, the number of people employed in the public sector was estimated to have increased by 51,000 between September 2017 and September 2018, mainly due to more people working for the National Health Service.

For September 2018, there were 1.66 million people employed in the National Health Service (31.1% of all people employed in the public sector) and there were 1.51 million people employed in public sector education (28.1% of all people employed in the public sector). As shown in Figure 5, over the last five years, employment in the National Health Service has steadily increased while employment in public sector education has remained broadly flat.

Where to find data about public and private sector employment

Public and private sector employment estimates are available at Tables 4 and 4(1) of the PDF version of this statistical bulletin and at datasets EMP02 and EMP03.

Further information on public sector employment is available in the Public sector employment release.

Historic estimates of public sector employment (which do not have National Statistics status) have been published by the Bank of England in the spreadsheet A millennium of macroeconomic data version 3.1 (at worksheet A51).

Things you need to know about actual hours worked

Actual hours worked measures the number of hours worked in the economy. Changes in actual hours worked reflect changes in the number of people in employment and the average hours worked by those people.

Commentary

Figure 6 shows that, since comparable estimates began in 1971, total paid hours worked by women has generally increased, reflecting increases in the employment rate for women and increases in the UK population. Total paid hours worked by men, in contrast, has been relatively stable as falls in the employment rate for men have been roughly offset by population increases.

Latest estimates show that between October to December 2017 and October to December 2018:

• hours worked in the UK increased by 1.5% to reach 1.04 billion hours

• the number of people in employment in the UK increased by 1.4% to reach 32.60 million

The estimates for October to December 2018 show that:

• people worked, on average, 32.0 hours per week, 0.2 hours less than for July to September 2018 but virtually unchanged compared with a year earlier

• people working full-time worked, on average, 37.1 hours per week in their main job, 0.2 hours less than for July to September 2018 but broadly unchanged compared with a year earlier

• people working part-time worked, on average, 16.2 hours per week in their main job, broadly unchanged compared with July to September 2018 and with a year earlier

Where to find data about hours worked

Hours worked estimates are available at Tables 7 and 7(1) of the PDF version of this statistical bulletin and at datasets HOUR01 SA and HOUR02 SA.

Historic estimates of hours worked (which do not have National Statistics status) have been published by the Bank of England in the spreadsheet A millennium of macroeconomic data version 3.1 (at worksheet A54).

Things you need to know about workforce jobs

Workforce jobs measures the number of filled jobs in the economy. The estimates are mainly sourced from employer surveys. Workforce jobs is a different concept from employment, which is sourced from the Labour Force Survey, as employment is an estimate of people in work and some people have more than one job.

Commentary

For September 2018, there were an estimated 35.13 million workforce jobs, 105,000 more than for June 2018 and 185,000 more than for a year earlier.

As shown in Figure 7, while the latest estimates showed increases in the number of jobs between September 2017 and September 2018 for most industrial sectors, the number of jobs in the administrative and support services sector fell by 61,000.

Looking at a longer-term comparison, between June 1978 (when comparable estimates began) and September 2018:

• the proportion of jobs accounted for by the manufacturing, and mining and quarrying sectors fell from 26.4% to 7.9%

• the proportion of jobs accounted for by the services sector increased from 63.2% to 83.1%

Where to find data about workforce jobs

Jobs estimates are available at Tables 5 and 6 of the PDF version of this statistical bulletin and at datasets JOBS01 and JOBS02.

While comparable estimates for workforce jobs by industry begin in 1978, some historical information back to 1841, not comparable with the latest estimates, are available from 2011 Census Analysis, 170 years of industry.

Historic estimates of jobs by industry (which do not have National Statistics status) have been published by the Bank of England in the spreadsheet A millennium of macroeconomic data version 3.1 (at worksheet A53).

Things you need to know about average weekly earnings

Average weekly earnings measures money paid per week, per job to employees in Great Britain in return for work done, before tax and other deductions from pay. The estimates do not include unearned income, benefits in kind or arrears of pay. The estimates do not include earnings of self-employed people.

The estimates are not just a measure of pay rises as they also reflect changes in the number of paid hours worked and the impact of employees paid at different rates joining and leaving individual businesses. The estimates also reflect changes in the overall structure of the workforce; for example, more low-paid jobs in the economy would have a downward effect on the earnings growth rate.

Estimates are available for both total pay (which includes bonuses) and for regular pay (which excludes bonus payments). Estimates are available in both nominal terms (not adjusted for consumer price inflation) and real terms (adjusted for consumer price inflation). The estimates of average weekly earnings in real terms are calculated by deflating the nominal earnings estimates by the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH), our preferred measure of consumer price inflation.

Commentary

For December 2018, average regular pay (excluding bonuses), before tax and other deductions from pay, for employees in Great Britain was:

• £495 per week in nominal terms (that is, not adjusted for price inflation), up from £480 per week for a year earlier

• £464 per week in constant 2015 prices (that is, adjusted for price inflation), up from £459 per week for a year earlier, but £9 lower than the pre-downturn peak of £473 per week for August and September 2007 and for February, March and April 2008

Looking at annual growth rates for regular pay (excluding bonuses), between October to December 2017 and October to December 2018:

• regular pay in nominal terms increased by 3.4%

• regular pay in real terms increased by 1.2%

For December 2018, average total pay (including bonuses), before tax and other deductions from pay, for employees in Great Britain was:

• £527 per week in nominal terms, up from £512 per week for a year earlier

• £494 per week in constant 2015 prices, up from £490 per week for a year earlier, but £31 lower than the pre-downturn peak of £525 per week for February 2008

Looking at annual growth rates for total pay (including bonuses), between October to December 2017 and October to December 2018:

• total pay in nominal terms increased by 3.4%

• total pay in real terms increased by 1.3%

Where to find data about average weekly earnings

Estimates of average weekly earnings in nominal terms (that is, not adjusted for consumer price inflation) are available at Tables 13, 14 and 15 of the PDF version of this statistical bulletin and at datasets EARN01, EARN02 and EARN03.

Estimates of average weekly earnings in real terms (that is, adjusted for consumer price inflation) are available at Table 16 of the PDF version of this statistical bulletin and at dataset EARN01.

While comparable records for average weekly earnings start in 2000, modelled estimates of average weekly earnings in nominal terms back to 1963 (which do not have National Statistics status) are available at dataset EARN02.

Historic estimates (which do not have National Statistics status) have been published by the Bank of England in the spreadsheet A millennium of macroeconomic data version 3.1 (at worksheets A47 and A48).

Where to find more information about earnings

Employee earnings in the UK, published on 25 October 2018, provides more detailed data for 2018 from our Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings.

Experimental earnings statistics based on Pay As You Earn (PAYE) administrative data have been published by HM Revenue and Customs.

Things you need to know about labour disputes

Labour disputes estimates measures strikes connected with terms and conditions of employment.

Commentary

The estimates for December 2018 show that:

• there were 5,000 working days lost from eight stoppages

• 1,000 people took strike action

The estimates for the 12 months ending December 2018 show that:

• there were 273,000 working days lost from 82 stoppages and 39,000 people took strike action

• there were 246,000 working days lost in the private sector

• there were 26,000 working days lost in the public sector

Since monthly estimates began in 1931:

• the highest cumulative 12-month estimate for working days lost was 32.2 million for the 12 months to April 1980

• the lowest cumulative 12-month estimate for working days lost was 143,000 for the 12 months to March 2011

Where to find data about labour disputes

Labour disputes estimates are available at Table 18 of the PDF version of this statistical bulletin and at dataset LABD01.

Where to find more information about labour disputes

The labour disputes annual article provides more detailed information. The most recent edition of this article was published on 30 May 2018.

Things you need to know about unemployment

Unemployment measures people without a job who have been actively seeking work within the last four weeks and are available to start work within the next two weeks.

The unemployment rate is not the proportion of the total population who are unemployed. It is the proportion of the economically active population (those in work plus those seeking and available to work) who are unemployed. This follows guidelines specified by the International Labour Organisation and it ensures that UK unemployment statistics are broadly comparable with those published by other countries.

Commentary

The proportion of the economically active population (all employed and unemployed people) who are unemployed is known as the unemployment rate. Figure 11 shows estimated unemployment rates for all people, and for men and women, since comparable records began in 1971. The lowest estimated unemployment rate for all people was 3.4% in late 1973 to early 1974. The highest unemployment rate, 11.9%, was in 1984 during the economic downturn of the early 1980s. The estimated unemployment rate for all people for the latest time period, October to December 2018, was 4.0%; it has not been lower since the 1970s.

Figure 12 looks in more detail at estimated unemployment rates for the last five years.

The estimates for October to December 2018 show that:

• the unemployment rate for all people was 4.0%, it has not been lower since December 1974 to February 1975

• the unemployment rate for men was 4.1%, lower than the estimate for a year earlier (4.4%)

• the unemployment rate for women was 3.9%, the lowest since comparable estimates began in 1971

The estimates for October to December 2018 show that there were:

• 1.36 million unemployed people, 14,000 fewer than for July to September 2018 and 100,000 fewer than for a year earlier

• 746,000 unemployed men, broadly unchanged compared with July to September 2018 but 32,000 fewer than for a year earlier

• 617,000 unemployed women, 12,000 fewer than for July to September 2018 and 68,000 fewer than for a year earlier

Looking at the estimates for unemployment by how long people have been out of work and seeking work, for October to December 2018, there were:

• 805,000 people who had been unemployed for up to six months, 50,000 fewer than for a year earlier

• 208,000 people who had been unemployed for between six months and one year, 31,000 fewer than for a year earlier

• 350,000 people who had been unemployed for over one year, 19,000 fewer than for a year earlier

Where to find data about unemployment

Unemployment estimates for the UK are available at Table 9 of the PDF version of this statistical bulletin and at dataset UNEM01 SA.

Estimates of employment, unemployment and economic inactivity for UK and non-UK workers are available at Non-UK workers in the labour market and at datasets A12 and EMP06.

Historic estimates of unemployment (which do not have National Statistics status) have been published by the Bank of England in the spreadsheet A millennium of macroeconomic data version 3.1 (at worksheets A49 and A50).

International comparisons of unemployment rates are available at Table 17 of the PDF version of this statistical bulletin and at dataset A10.

Things you need to know about economic inactivity

Economically inactive people are not in employment but do not meet the internationally accepted definition of unemployment because they have not been seeking work within the last four weeks and/or they are unable to start work within the next two weeks.

Commentary

The proportion of people, aged from 16 to 64 years, not in work and neither seeking nor available to work is known as the economic inactivity rate. Figure 13 shows that, since comparable estimates began in 1971, the economic inactivity rate for all people aged from 16 to 64 years has been generally falling (although it increased during economic downturns) due to a gradual fall in the economic inactivity rate for women. The economic inactivity rate for men has been gradually rising.

Figure 14 looks in more detail at the estimated economic inactivity rate for all people aged from 16 to 64 years since comparable estimates began in 1971. It increased during the economic downturn of the early 1980s, reaching a record high of 25.9% in 1983. As the economy improved in the late 1980s, it resumed its downward path, before the economic downturn of the early 1990s drove it back up again. Following an increase in the economic inactivity rate during the economic downturn of 2008 to 2009, it again resumed a generally downward path.

Looking at estimated economic inactivity rates, for people aged from 16 to 64 years, for October to December 2018:

• the rate for all people was 20.9%, lower than for a year earlier (21.3%), and the lowest since comparable estimates began in 1971

• the rate for men was 16.1%, lower than for a year earlier (16.6%)

• the rate for women was 25.7%, lower than for a year earlier (26.0%) and close to a record low

For October to December 2018, there were an estimated 8.63 million people aged from 16 to 64 years not in work and neither seeking nor available to work (known as economically inactive). This was:

• 94,000 fewer than the estimate for July to September 2018

• 153,000 fewer than the estimate for a year earlier

• the lowest since October to December 1999

Looking in more detail at the estimated 8.63 million people aged from 16 to 64 years who were economically inactive for October to December 2018, the three largest categories were students (26.3% of the total), people looking after the family or home (23.5% of the total) and long-term sick (23.2% of the total). The estimates showed that:

• there were 2.27 million people who were not looking for work because they were studying, 88,000 fewer than for a year earlier

• there were 2.03 million people who were not looking for work because they were looking after the family or home, 62,000 fewer than for a year earlier

• there were 2.01 million people who were not looking for work due to long-term sickness, slightly more than for a year earlier

The fourth-largest category within economic inactivity for those aged from 16 to 64 years was retired (13.0% of the total). There were an estimated 1.12 million people who were not looking for work because they had retired, 39,000 fewer than for a year earlier.

Figure 15 shows that the categories showing the largest estimated falls over the five-year period from October to December 2013 to October to December 2018 were looking after the family and home (down 274,000) and retired (down 213,000). This reflects ongoing changes to the State Pension age for women, resulting in fewer women retiring between the ages of 60 and 65 years, as well as more women in younger age groups participating in the labour market.

Where to find data about economic inactivity

Economic inactivity estimates are available at Tables 1 and 11 of the PDF version of this statistical bulletin and at datasets A02 SA and INAC01 SA.

Estimates of employment, unemployment and economic inactivity for UK and non-UK workers are available at Non-UK workers in the labour market and at datasets A12 and EMP06.

Things you need to know about young people in the labour market

This section looks at people aged from 16 to 24 years. It is a common misconception that all people in full-time education are classified as economically inactive. This is not the case as people in full-time education are included in the employment estimates if they have a part-time job and are included in the unemployment estimates if they are seeking part-time work.

Commentary

Figure 16 shows the estimated numbers of people aged from 16 to 24 years who were employed, unemployed and economically inactive for October to December 2018, broken down by educational status.

Figure 17 shows that the estimated UK household population is falling for those aged from 16 to 24 years. The estimates also show that, for people aged from 16 to 24 years, between October to December 2017 and October to December 2018:

• the estimated number of people in employment increased by 16,000 to 3.83 million

• the estimated number of unemployed people fell by 31,000 to 510,000

• the estimated number of economically inactive people fell by 76,000 to 2.62 million (most of whom were full-time students)

For October to December 2018, the unemployment rate for those aged from 16 to 24 years was estimated at 11.8%, lower than for a year earlier (12.2%). The unemployment rate for those aged from 16 to 24 years has been consistently higher than that for older age groups since comparable estimates began in 1992.

Between March to May 1992 and October to December 2018, the estimated proportion of people aged from 16 to 24 years who were in full-time education increased substantially from 26.2% to 43.9%. This has impacted on the youth unemployment rate because the increase in the number of young people going into full-time education has reduced the size of the economically active population (those in work plus those seeking and available to work). A fall in the size of the economically active population leads to a higher unemployment rate (because the unemployment rate is the proportion of the economically active population who are unemployed, not the proportion of the total population who are unemployed).

Where to find data about young people in the labour market

Estimates for young people in the labour market are available at Table 12 of the PDF version of this statistical bulletin and at dataset A06 SA.

Where to find more information about young people in the labour market

Estimates for young people who were not in education, employment or training (NEET) for July to September 2018 were published on 22 November 2018. Estimates for October to December 2018 will be published on 28 February 2019.

Things you need to know about redundancies

The redundancies estimates measure the number of people who were made redundant or who took voluntary redundancy in the three months before the Labour Force Survey interviews.

Commentary

For October to December 2018, an estimated 91,000 people had become redundant in the three months before the Labour Force Survey interviews, broadly unchanged compared with July to September 2018 but 15,000 fewer than for a year earlier.

Where to find data about redundancies

Redundancies estimates are available at Table 22 of the PDF version of this statistical bulletin and at dataset RED01 SA.

Things you need to know about vacancies

Vacancies are defined as positions for which employers are actively seeking to recruit outside their business or organisation.

Commentary

There were an estimated 870,000 job vacancies for November 2018 to January 2019. This was:

• 16,000 more than for August to October 2018

• 46,000 more than for a year earlier

• the highest estimate since comparable records began in 2001

There were an estimated 2.9 job vacancies per 100 employee jobs for November 2018 to January 2019. The industrial sectors showing the largest estimated vacancy rates were accommodation and food service activities, and information and communication (both 4.2 vacancies per 100 filled employee jobs). The sector showing the smallest vacancy rate was public administration and defence (1.7 vacancies per 100 filled employee jobs).

Where to find data about vacancies

Vacancies estimates are available at Tables 19, 20 and 21 of the PDF version of this statistical bulletin and at datasets VACS01, VACS02 and VACS03.  

Future publication dates

19 March 2019
16 April 2019
14 May 2019
11 June 2019
16 July 2019
13 August 2019
10 September 2019
15 October 2019
12 November 2019
17 December 2019

The Labour market economic commentary is published every month on the same day as this release.

The Regional labour market statistics release is published every month on the same day as this release. Regional and local area labour market statistics are also available on our NOMIS website.

The Public sector employment release is published four times a year (in March, June, September and December) on the same day as this release.

The Young people not in education, employment or training (NEET) release is published four times a year (in February, May, August and November).

The Working and workless households in the UK release is published four times a year.

The Employee earnings in the UK release is published annually. It provides detailed earnings statistics from our Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings and the most recent release was published on 25 October 2018.

The Business Register and Employment Survey release is published annually. The most recent release was published on 27 September 2018.

An article on Sickness absence in the labour market was published on 30 July 2018.

Revisions

Estimates for the most recent time periods are subject to revision due to the receipt of late and corrected responses to business surveys and revisions to seasonal adjustment factors, which are re-estimated every month. Estimates are subject to longer-run revisions, on an annual basis, resulting from reviews of the seasonal adjustment process. Estimates derived from the Labour Force Survey (a survey of households) are usually only revised once a year. Revisions to estimates derived from other sources are usually minor and are commented on in the statistical bulletin if this is not the case. Further information is available in the labour market statistics revisions policy.

One indication of the reliability of the main indicators in this statistical bulletin can be obtained by monitoring the size of revisions. Datasets EMP05, UNEM04 and JOBS06 record the size and pattern of revisions over the last five years. These indicators only report summary measures for revisions. The revised data itself may be subject to sampling or other sources of error. Our standard presentation is to show five years' worth of revisions (60 observations for a monthly series, 20 for a quarterly series).

Accuracy of the statistics: estimating and reporting uncertainty

Most of the figures in this statistical bulletin come from surveys of households or businesses. Surveys gather information from a sample rather than from the whole population. The sample is designed to allow for this, and to be as accurate as possible given practical limitations such as time and cost constraints, but results from sample surveys are always estimates, not precise figures. This means that they are subject to some uncertainty. This can have an impact on how changes in the estimates should be interpreted, especially for short-term comparisons.

There is a trade-off between sample size and sampling variability. As the number of people available in the sample gets smaller, the variability of the estimates that we can make from that sample size gets larger. What this means in practice is that estimates for small groups (for example, unemployed people aged from 16 to 17 years), which are based on quite small subsets of the Labour Force Survey sample, are less reliable and tend to be more volatile than estimates for larger aggregated groups (for example, the total number of unemployed people).

We can illustrate the level of uncertainty (also called “sampling variability”) around a survey estimate by defining a range around the estimate (known as a “confidence interval”) within which we think the real value that the survey is trying to measure lies. Confidence intervals are typically defined so that we can say we are 95% confident the true value lies within the range – in which case we refer to a “95% confidence interval”.

The number of unemployed people for October to December 2018 was estimated at 1,363,000, with a stated 95% confidence interval of plus or minus 70,000. This means that we are 95% confident that the true number of unemployed people was between 1,293,000 and 1,433,000. Again, the best estimate from the survey was that the number of unemployed people was 1,363,000.

As well as calculating precision measures around the numbers and rates obtained from the survey, we can also calculate them for changes in the numbers and rates. For example, the estimated change in the number of unemployed people between July to September 2018 and October to December 2018 was a small fall of 14,000, with a 95% confidence interval of plus or minus 77,000. This means that we are 95% confident the actual change in unemployment was somewhere between an increase of 63,000 and a fall of 91,000, with the best estimate being a fall of 14,000. As the confidence interval for the change in unemployment (plus 63,000 to minus 91,000) includes zero, the estimated fall in unemployment of 14,000 is said to be “not statistically significant”.

In general, changes in the numbers (and especially the rates) reported in this statistical bulletin between three- month periods are small, and are not usually greater than the level that is explainable by sampling variability. In practice, this means that small, short-term movements in reported rates should be treated as indicative, and considered alongside medium-and long-term patterns in the series and corresponding movements in administrative sources, where available, to give a fuller picture.

Where to find data about uncertainty and reliability

Dataset A11 shows sampling variabilities for estimates derived from the Labour Force Survey.

Dataset JOBS07 shows sampling variabilities for estimates of workforce jobs.

The sampling variability of the three-month average vacancies level is around plus or minus 1.5% of that level.

Sampling variability information for average weekly earnings growth rates are available from the “Sampling Variability” worksheets within datasets EARN01 and EARN03.

Seasonal adjustment and uncertainty

Like many economic indicators, the labour market is affected by factors that tend to occur at around the same time every year; for example, school leavers entering the labour market in July and whether Easter falls in March or April. In order to compare movements other than annual changes in labour market statistics, such as since the previous quarter or since the previous month, the data are seasonally adjusted to remove the effects of seasonal factors and the arrangement of the calendar. All estimates discussed in this statistical bulletin are seasonally adjusted except where otherwise stated. While seasonal adjustment is essential to allow for robust comparisons through time, it is not possible to estimate uncertainty measures for the seasonally adjusted series.

Quality and Methodology Information reports

The Quality and Methodology Information reports contain important information on:

• the strengths and limitations of the data and how it compares with related data

• users and uses of the data

• how the output was created

• the quality of the output including the accuracy of the data

Labour Force Survey Quality and Methodology Information

Labour Force Survey performance and quality monitoring reports

Vacancy Survey Quality and Methodology Information

Workforce jobs Quality and Methodology Information

Average weekly earnings (AWE) Quality and Methodology Information

Labour disputes Quality and Methodology Information