1. Other pages in this release
Other commentary from the latest labour market data can be found on the following pages:
Nôl i'r tabl cynnwys2. Main points
The estimates presented in this bulletin cover the period prior to the implementation of the coronavirus (COVID-19) social distancing measures.
The UK employment rate in the three months to February 2020 was estimated at a record high of 76.6%, 0.4 percentage points higher than a year earlier and 0.2 percentage points up on the previous quarter.
The UK unemployment rate for the three months to February 2020 was estimated at 4.0%, largely unchanged compared with a year earlier and 0.1 percentage point higher than the previous quarter.
In real terms (after adjusting for inflation), annual growth is estimated to be 1.2% in total pay and 1.3% in regular pay in the three months to February 2020, both down from a recent peak of 2.0% in the three months to June 2019.
There were an estimated 795,000 vacancies in the UK in January to March 2020; this is 52,000 fewer than a year earlier and 6,000 fewer than the previous quarter.
Earnings and employment from Pay As You Earn (PAYE) Real Time Information (RTI), UK: April 2020 is also released today; this is an experimental monthly estimate of paid employees and their pay from PAYE RTI and includes a flash estimate of paid employees for March 2020.
The data in this bulletin come from surveys of households and businesses. It is not possible to survey every household and business each month, so these statistics are estimates based on samples.
3. Employment
Figure 1: The employment rate for all people increased by 0.4 percentage points on the year to a record high of 76.6%
UK employment rates (aged 16 to 64 years), seasonally adjusted, between January to March 1971 and December 2019 to February 2020
Source: Office for National Statistics – Labour Force Survey
Download this chart Figure 1: The employment rate for all people increased by 0.4 percentage points on the year to a record high of 76.6%
Image .csv .xlsEmployment measures the number of people aged 16 years and over in paid work. The employment rate is the proportion of people aged between 16 and 64 years who are in paid work.
Estimated employment rates for people aged between 16 and 64 years have generally been increasing since early 2012. Recent increases have largely been driven by increases in the employment rate for women (Figure 1).
For December 2019 to February 2020:
the estimated employment rate for all people was at a record high of 76.6%; this is 0.4 percentage points up on the year and 0.2 percentage points up on the quarter
the estimated employment rate for men was 80.5%; this is largely unchanged on the year and 0.1 percentage points up on the quarter
the estimated employment rate for women was at a record high of 72.7%; this is 0.9 percentage points up on the year and 0.3 percentage points up on the quarter
The increase in the employment rate for women in recent years is partly a result of changes to the State Pension age for women, resulting in fewer women retiring between the ages of 60 and 65 years. However, since the equalisation of the State Pension age, the employment rate for women has continued to rise.
Estimates for December 2019 to February 2020 show a record 33.07 million people aged 16 years and over in employment, 352,000 more than a year earlier. This annual increase was mainly driven by women in employment (up by 318,000 on the year to a record high of 15.73 million), workers aged above 50 years (up by 258,000 to a record high of 10.70 million) and aged 25 to 34 years (up by 96,000 to a record high of 7.64 million), self-employed workers (up by 195,000 to 5.03 million), and full-time employees (up by 184,000 to a record high of 20.87 million). The annual increase for self-employed women (up by 140,000 to a joint record of 1.72 million) was the largest since May to July 2014.
There was a 172,000 increase in employment on the quarter. This was, again, mainly driven by women in employment (up 143,000), workers aged 18 to 24 years (up 66,000 to 3.49 million) and aged above 65 years (up 62,000 to a record high of 1.39 million), and full-time employees (up 107,000). More information about employment can be found in the Employment in the UK bulletin, published alongside this release.
Nôl i'r tabl cynnwys4. Unemployment
Figure 2: The unemployment rate for all people was largely unchanged on the year, at 4.0%
UK unemployment rates (aged 16 years and over), seasonally adjusted, between January to March 1971 and December 2019 to February 2020
Source: Office for National Statistics – Labour Force Survey
Download this chart Figure 2: The unemployment rate for all people was largely unchanged on the year, at 4.0%
Image .csv .xlsUnemployment measures people without a job who have been actively seeking work within the last four weeks and are available to start work within the next two weeks. The unemployment rate is not the proportion of the total population who are unemployed. It is the proportion of the economically active population (those in work plus those seeking and available to work) who are unemployed.
Estimated unemployment rates for both men and women aged 16 years and over have generally been falling since late 2013 but have levelled off in recent periods (Figure 5).
For December 2019 to February 2020:
the estimated UK unemployment rate for all people was 4.0%; this is largely unchanged compared with a year earlier and 0.1 percentage point higher than the previous quarter
the estimated UK unemployment rate for men was 4.2%; this is 0.2 percentage points higher than a year earlier and 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous quarter
the estimated UK unemployment rate for women was 3.7%; this is down by 0.1 percentage point on the year but up by 0.1 percentage point on the quarter
For December 2019 to February 2020, an estimated 1.36 million people were unemployed. This is 22,000 more than a year earlier but 476,000 fewer than five years earlier. The small increase on the year is the second annual increase in unemployment since May to July 2012, and it was driven by a 32,000 increase for men.
More information about unemployment can be found in the Employment in the UK bulletin, published alongside this release.
Nôl i'r tabl cynnwys5. Economic inactivity
Figure 3: The overall inactivity rate for people aged between 16 and 64 years was a record low of 20.2%, down 0.4 percentage points on the year
UK economic inactivity rate (all people aged 16 to 64 years), seasonally adjusted, between January to March 1971 and December 2019 to February 2020
Source: Office for National Statistics – Labour Force Survey
Download this chart Figure 3: The overall inactivity rate for people aged between 16 and 64 years was a record low of 20.2%, down 0.4 percentage points on the year
Image .csv .xlsEconomic inactivity measures people without a job but who are not classed as unemployed because they have not been actively seeking work within the last four weeks and/or they are unable to start work within the next two weeks. Our headline measure of economic inactivity is for those aged between 16 and 64 years.
Since comparable records began in 1971, the economic inactivity rate for all people aged between 16 and 64 years has generally been falling (although it increased during recessions). This is because of a gradual fall in the economic inactivity rate for women (as seen in Figure 8). Over recent years, the economic inactivity rate for men has been relatively flat.
For people aged between 16 and 64 years, for December 2019 to February 2020:
the estimated economic inactivity rate for all people was a record low of 20.2%; this is down by 0.4 percentage points on the year and down by 0.3 percentage points on the quarter
the estimated economic inactivity rate for men was 15.9%; this is down by 0.1 percentage point on the year and down by 0.2 percentage points on the quarter
the estimated economic inactivity rate for women was a record low of 24.5%; this is down by 0.8 percentage points on the year and by 0.4 percentage points down on the quarter
Estimates for December 2019 to February 2020 show 8.37 million people aged between 16 and 64 years not in the labour force (economically inactive). This was 166,000 fewer than a year earlier and 641,000 fewer than five years earlier. The annual decrease was mainly driven by women, with the level down by 157,000 to reach a record low of 5.09 million.
More information about economic inactivity can be found in the Employment in the UK bulletin, published alongside this release.
Nôl i'r tabl cynnwys6. Earnings growth
Figure 4: Pay growth for employees in total pay (including bonuses) is estimated to be 2.8%; this translates to 1.2% in real terms
Great Britain average weekly earnings annual growth rates, seasonally adjusted, January to March 2001 to December 2019 to February 2020
Source: Office for National Statistics – Monthly Wages and Salaries Survey
Download this chart Figure 4: Pay growth for employees in total pay (including bonuses) is estimated to be 2.8%; this translates to 1.2% in real terms
Image .csv .xlsThe earnings estimates are not just a measure of pay rises as they also reflect changes in the number of paid hours worked and changes in the structure of the workforce, for example, more high-paid jobs would have an upward effect on earnings growth rates.
The rate of pay growth trended upwards from spring 2017. In April to June 2019, it reached 4.0% for total pay and 3.9% for regular pay, the highest nominal pay growth rates since 2008. However, since then growth has slowed. In December 2019 to February 2020, it stood at 2.8% for total pay and 2.9% for regular pay.
In real terms, annual pay growth has been positive since the three months to February 2018. This means that during that period, pay has been growing faster than inflation. Growth in real terms for both total pay and regular pay reached a recent peak of 2.0% in the three months to June 2019, before decreasing to 1.2% for total pay and 1.3% for regular pay in the three months to February 2020.
More information about earnings growth can be found in the Average weekly earnings in Great Britain bulletin, published alongside this release.
Nôl i'r tabl cynnwys7. Vacancies
Figure 5: January to March 2020 saw the tenth consecutive annual decrease in job vacancies
Number of vacancies in the UK, seasonally adjusted, between January to March 2002 and January to March 2020
Source: Office for National Statistics – Vacancy Survey
Download this chart Figure 5: January to March 2020 saw the tenth consecutive annual decrease in job vacancies
Image .csv .xlsThe estimated number of vacancies in the UK fell sharply during the recession of 2008 to 2009. Since 2012, it has generally increased, reaching a record high of 855,000 in November 2018 to January 2019. For January to March 2020, there were an estimated 795,000 vacancies in the UK; this is 6,000 fewer than in the previous quarter (October to December 2019), which is not a statistically significant change, and 52,000 fewer than a year earlier.
More information about vacancies can be found in the Vacancies and jobs in the UK bulletin, published alongside this release.
Nôl i'r tabl cynnwys8. Labour market data
Summary of labour market statistics
Dataset A01 | Released 21 April 2020
Estimates of employment, unemployment and other employment-related statistics for the UK.
Employment, unemployment and economic inactivity
Dataset A02 SA | Released 21 April 2020
Estimates of UK employment, unemployment and economic inactivity for people aged 16 years and over and people aged between 16 and 64 years based on the Labour Force Survey (LFS).
Average weekly earnings
Dataset EARN01 | Released 21 April 2020
Estimates of Great Britain earnings growth based on the Monthly Wages and Salaries Survey.
Vacancies by industry
Dataset VACS02 | Released 21 April 2020
Estimates of the number of UK job vacancies for each industry, based on a survey of businesses.
View all related data on the related data page. Alternatively, Nomis provides free access to the most detailed and up-to-date UK labour market statistics from official sources.
Level | Sampling variability of level (*) | Change on quarter | Sampling variability of change on quarter (*) | Change on year | Sampling variability of change on year (*) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Employment (000s, aged 16 and over) | 33,073 | ± 181 | 172 | ± 152 | 352 | ± 240 |
Employment rate (aged 16 to 64) | 76.6% | ± 0.4 | 0.2 | ± 0.3 | 0.4 | ± 0.5 |
Average weekly hours | 31.8 | ± 0.2 | -0.2 | ± 0.2 | -0.4 | ± 0.3 |
Unemployment (000s, aged 16 and over) | 1,364 | ± 71 | 58 | ± 76 | 22 | ± 98 |
Unemployment rate (aged 16 and over) | 4.0% | ± 0.2 | 0.1 | ± 0.2 | 0.0 | ± 0.3 |
Economically active (000s, aged 16 and over) | 34,437 | ± 173 | 230 | ± 148 | 374 | ± 231 |
Economic activity rate (aged 16 to 64) | 79.8% | ± 0.4 | 0.3 | ± 0.3 | 0.4 | ± 0.5 |
Economically inactive (000s, aged 16 to 64) | 8,370 | ± 155 | -136 | ± 133 | -166 | ± 208 |
Economic inactivity rate (aged 16 to 64) | 20.2% | ± 0.4 | -0.3 | ± 0.3 | -0.4 | ± 0.5 |
Redundancies (000s, aged 16 and over) | 107 | ± 19 | -8 | ± 27 | 19 | ± 25 |
Download this table Table 1: Labour Force Survey sampling variability (95% confidence intervals)
.xls .csv
Annual growth rate (estimate) | Sampling variability of growth rate (1) | |
---|---|---|
Total pay (nominal) | 2.8 | ± 0.5 |
Total pay (real) | 1.2 | |
Regular pay (nominal) | 2.9 | ± 0.5 |
Regular pay (real) | 1.3 |
Download this table Table 2: Summary of employee earnings, seasonally adjusted, Great Britain, December 2019 to February 2020
.xls .csv9. Glossary
Average weekly earnings
Average weekly earnings measures money paid by employers to employees in Great Britain before tax and other deductions from pay. The estimates are not just a measure of pay rises as they also reflect, for example, changes in the overall structure of the workforce. More high-paid jobs in the economy would have an upward effect on the earnings growth rate.
Economic inactivity
People not in the labour force (also known as economically inactive) are not in employment but do not meet the internationally accepted definition of unemployment because they have not been seeking work within the last four weeks and/or they are unable to start work in the next two weeks. The economic inactivity rate is the proportion of people aged between 16 and 64 years who are not in the labour force.
Employment
Employment measures the number of people in paid work or who had a job that they were temporarily away from (for example, because they were on holiday or off sick). This differs from the number of jobs because some people have more than one job. The employment rate is the proportion of people aged between 16 and 64 years who are in employment. A more detailed explanation is available in our guide to labour market statistics.
Unemployment
Unemployment measures people without a job who have been actively seeking work within the last four weeks and are available to start work within the next two weeks. The unemployment rate is not the proportion of the total population who are unemployed. It is the proportion of the economically active population (those in work plus those seeking and available to work) who are unemployed.
Vacancies
Vacancies are defined as positions for which employers are actively seeking recruits from outside their business or organisation. The estimates are based on the Vacancy Survey; this is a survey of businesses designed to provide estimates of the stock of vacancies across the economy, excluding agriculture, forestry and fishing (a small sector for which the collection of estimates would not be practical).
A more detailed glossary is available.
Nôl i'r tabl cynnwys10. Measuring the data
Coronavirus (COVID-19)
In response to the developing coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, we are working to ensure that we continue to publish economic statistics. For more information, please see COVID-19 and the production of statistics.
We have reviewed all publications and data published as part of the labour market release in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. This has led to the postponement of some publications and datasets to ensure that we can continue to publish our main labour market data. This will protect the delivery and quality of our remaining outputs as well as ensuring we can respond to new demands as a direct result of COVID-19.
Ahead of the latest labour market statistics release, David Freeman, head of labour market statistics at the Office for National Statistics (ONS), has looked at how the ONS is responding to the pressing need for new information in his blog, Measuring the labour market during Coronavirus.
For more information on how labour market data sources, among others, will be affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, see the statement published on 27 March 2020.
Data in this statistical bulletin and accompanying datasets relate to periods that are largely unaffected by recent developments (Labour Force Survey (LFS) interviews that took place throughout the three-month reference period of December 2019 to February 2020; Claimant Count statistics relate to the second Thursday of the reference month; Average Weekly Earnings data relate to periods up to and including February 2020; vacancies statistics relate to the first Friday of the reference month, unless this is the first day of the month, in this case the reference date moves to the second Friday of the month; and workforce job estimates relate to reference periods in December 2019).
Our latest data and analysis on the impact of COVID-19 on the UK economy and population is now available on our dedicated COVID-19 webpage. This will be the hub for all special COVID-19-related publications, drawing on all available data.
After EU withdrawal
As the UK leaves the EU, it is important that our statistics continue to be of high quality and are internationally comparable. During the transition period, those UK statistics that align with EU practice and rules will continue to do so in the same way as before 31 January 2020.
After the transition period, we will continue to produce our labour market statistics in line with the UK Statistics Authority’s Code of Practice for Statistics and in accordance with International Labour Organization (ILO) definitions and agreed international statistical guidance.
The employment, unemployment and economic inactivity estimates rely on data collected from the LFS, a survey run by field interviewers with people across the UK every month.
The LFS performance and quality monitoring reports provide data on response rates and other quality related issues for the LFS, including breakdowns of response by LFS wave, region and question-specific response issues. The average weekly earnings and vacancies estimates rely on data collected from surveys of employers.
More quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in the following Quality and Methodology Information (QMI) reports:
Future publication dates
Because of a public holiday in Northern Ireland, the July 2020 and July 2021 labour market publication dates have both been moved two days later. This change will ensure that users across the UK have the same access to advice from the teams who produce the statistics on the day of release. For further information, please see Statement on changing the release dates of ONS statistics to avoid public holidays.
19 May 2020
16 June 2020
16 July 2020
11 August 2020
15 September 2020
13 October 2020
10 November 2020
15 December 2020
26 January 2021
23 February 2021
23 March 2021
20 April 2021
18 May 2021
15 June 2021
15 July 2021
17 August 2021
14 September 2021
12 October 2021
16 November 2021
14 December 2021
11. Strengths and limitations
Accuracy of the statistics: estimating and reporting uncertainty
The figures in this bulletin come from surveys, which gather information from a sample rather than from the whole population. The sample is designed to be as accurate as possible given practical limitations such as time and cost constraints. Results from sample surveys are always estimates, not precise figures. This can have an impact on how changes in the estimates should be interpreted, especially for short-term comparisons.
As the number of people available in the sample gets smaller, the variability of the estimates that we can make from that sample size gets larger. Estimates for small groups (for example, unemployed people aged between 16 and 17 years), which are based on small subsets of the Labour Force Survey (LFS) sample, are less reliable and tend to be more volatile than for larger aggregated groups (for example, the total number of unemployed people).
In general, changes in the numbers (and especially the rates) reported in this bulletin between three-month periods are small and are not usually greater than the level that can be explained by sampling variability. Short-term movements in reported rates should be considered alongside longer-term patterns in the series and corresponding movements in other sources to give a fuller picture.
Further information is available in A guide to labour market statistics.
Where to find data about uncertainty and reliability
Dataset A11 shows sampling variabilities for estimates derived from the LFS.
Sampling variability information for average weekly earnings growth rates is available from the “Sampling Variability” worksheets within datasets EARN01 and EARN03.
The sampling variability of the three-month average vacancies level is around plus or minus 1.5% of that level. Information on revisions is available in the labour market statistics revisions policy.
Nôl i'r tabl cynnwys