Labour market in the regions of the UK: June 2020

Regional, local authority and Parliamentary constituency breakdowns of changes in UK employment, unemployment, economic inactivity and other related statistics.

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Cyswllt:
Email Bob Watson

Dyddiad y datganiad:
16 June 2020

Cyhoeddiad nesaf:
16 July 2020

1. Main points

  • For the three months ending April 2020, the highest employment rate estimate in the UK was in the South East (79.5%) and the lowest was in Northern Ireland (71.6%).

  • For the three months ending April 2020, the highest unemployment rate estimate in the UK was in the North East (5.2%) and the lowest was in Northern Ireland (2.3%); a joint record low unemployment rate.

  • For the three months ending April 2020, the highest economic inactivity rate estimate in the UK was in Northern Ireland (26.7%) and the lowest was in the South East (17.9%).

  • Between December 2019 and March 2020, the largest estimated increase in workforce jobs in the UK was in the East of England at 35,000, while the largest decrease was in the South East at 61,000.

  • In March 2020, the region with the highest estimated proportion of workforce jobs in the services sector was London at 91.8%, while the East Midlands had the highest proportion of jobs in the production sector at 13.2%.

  • The highest average estimated actual weekly hours worked, for the 12 months ending December 2019, was in London at 33.8 hours and the lowest was in the North East at 30.9 hours; for full-time and part-time workers, it was highest for both in Northern Ireland, at 38.4 hours and 17.0 hours respectively.

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The data in this bulletin come from the Labour Force Survey, a survey of households. It is not practical to survey every household each quarter, so these statistics are estimates based on a large sample.

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2. Coronavirus and measuring regional labour market

Coronavirus and Labour Force Survey estimates

Labour Force Survey estimates presented in this bulletin are based on interviews that took place throughout the period from the start of February to the end of April 2020. Consequently, around half of the interviews relate to the period prior to the implementation of coronavirus (COVID-19) social distancing measures. Interviews in the final week of March and the whole of April relate to the period following the government closure of schools, introduction of lockdown and announcement of measures aimed at protecting businesses and jobs.

The International Labour Organization (ILO) definition of employment includes those who worked in a job for at least one hour and those temporarily absent from a job. Workers furloughed under the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme or who are self-employed but temporarily not in work have a reasonable expectation of returning to their jobs after a temporary period of absence. Therefore they are classified as employed under the ILO definition.

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3. Regional labour market summary

Table 1 shows the latest estimates for employment, unemployment and economic inactivity for February to April 2020 and a comparison with the previous quarter (November 2019 to January 2020). Comparing non-overlapping periods (February to April 2020 with November 2019 to January 2020) provides a more robust short-term comparison.

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4. Employment

Employment measures the number of people aged 16 years and over in paid work and those who had a job that they were temporarily away from. The employment rate is the proportion of people aged between 16 and 64 years who are in employment.

The employment rate estimate for people aged between 16 and 64 years for the UK was 76.4% for the period February to April 2020. This is a decrease of 0.1 percentage points compared with the previous quarter (November 2019 to January 2020).

The UK region with the highest employment rate estimate was the South East at 79.5%. The highest estimated rate for the same period last year was in the South West at 80.2%. The next highest employment rate estimate for February to April 2020 was seen in the South West at 78.9%, followed by the East Midlands at 78.1%.

The region with the lowest employment rate estimate was Northern Ireland at 71.6%, followed by the North East at 73.9%. The lowest estimated rate for the same period last year was in the North East at 70.7%.

The largest increase in the employment rate estimate, compared with November 2019 to January 2020, was in the North East at 2.1 percentage points, followed by Yorkshire and The Humber at 1.0 percentage point. The unusually large increase in the North East took its employment rate and level to a record high.

The largest decrease in the employment rate estimate, compared with November 2019 to January 2020, was for the South West at 1.0 percentage point, followed by the West Midlands, Scotland and Northern Ireland, all at 0.7 percentage points. The North West and Wales were largely unchanged compared with the previous quarter.

Over the year, the region with the largest increase in the employment rate estimate was the North East at 3.2 percentage points, followed by the East Midlands with an increase of 1.8 percentage points. Scotland saw the largest decrease in the estimated employment rate at 1.7 percentage points, followed by the East of England and the South West, both with a decrease of 1.2 percentage points (Figure 1).

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5. Workforce jobs

Workforce jobs measures the number of filled jobs in the economy. The estimates are mainly sourced from employer surveys such as the Short-Term Employment Surveys (STES) and the Quarterly Public Sector Employment Survey (QPSES). Workforce jobs is a different concept from employment, which is sourced from the Labour Force Survey (LFS), as employment is an estimate of people and some people have more than one job.

A comparison between estimates of employment and jobs article is available.

For March 2020, there were an estimated 35.83 million workforce jobs in the UK; this is 289,000 more than a year ago (March 2019) and 35,000 more than last quarter (December 2019).

Workforce jobs increased in 9 of the 12 regions of the UK between March 2019 and March 2020. The largest estimated increase of 94,000 was in London, followed by Scotland at 67,000. The largest estimated decrease was seen in the South East, at 71,000 (Figure 2).

Compared with last quarter (December 2019), only 8 out of 12 regions of the UK saw an increase in workforce jobs, the largest being in the East of England, at 35,000. The largest estimated decrease was in the South East at 61,000.

For March 2020, the East Midlands had the highest proportion of jobs in the production sector at 13.2% (Figure 3), while London had the lowest proportion at 3.2%. This is because London has primarily service-based industries within its region, such as financial and administrative sectors.

For the services sector, London had the highest proportion at 91.8%, while Northern Ireland had the lowest proportion at 78.0%. The services sector currently accounts for 83.8% of the total workforce jobs in the UK.

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6. Actual hours worked (first published 21 April 2020)

Statistics for usual hours worked measure how many hours people usually work per week. Compared with actual hours worked, they are not affected by absences and so can provide a better measure of normal working patterns. For example, a person who usually works 37 hours a week but who was on holiday for a week would be recorded as working zero actual hours for that week, while usual hours would be recorded as 37 hours.

For the period January to December 2019, the UK region with the highest estimated average actual weekly hours worked (for all workers) was London at 33.8 hours, followed by Northern Ireland at 33.5 hours. The North East had the lowest number of hours worked at 30.9 hours.

The UK region with the largest increase in the average hours worked, compared with the same period of the previous year (January to December 2018), was the South East with an increase of 0.6 hours. The largest decrease in the average hours worked was in the North East with a decrease of 0.7 hours.

The region with the highest average actual weekly hours worked in full-time jobs was Northern Ireland at 38.4 hours. This is a decrease of 0.1 hours compared with the same period of the previous year (January to December 2018). The regions with the lowest average actual weekly hours worked in full-time jobs were the North East and East of England, both at 35.9 hours. For part-time jobs, the region with the highest average hours worked was Northern Ireland at 17.0 hours and the region with the lowest was the South West at 15.8 hours.

For men, the region with the highest average hours worked was Northern Ireland at 38.2 hours and for women, it was London at 29.5 hours. The largest difference in average hours worked between men and women was in Northern Ireland, where men worked on average 9.9 more hours per week than women (Figure 4).

The largest overall change compared with the same period of the previous year (January to December 2018) was seen for women in the South East, where the average hours worked increased by 1.0 hour to 27.5 hours. In comparison, for men, the largest change was in the North East, where the average hours worked decreased by 0.9 hours to 34.9 hours per week.

The region with the largest difference in total hours worked between men and women was London, where men worked a total of 32.0 million more hours than women. The region with the smallest difference was the North East, where men worked only 5.0 million more hours than women. The North East saw the largest decrease in total hours worked compared with the same period of the previous year (January to December 2018), while the South East saw the largest increase in total hours.

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7. Unemployment

Unemployment measures people without a job who have been actively seeking work within the last four weeks and are available to start work within the next two weeks. The unemployment rate is not the proportion of the total population who are unemployed. It is the proportion of the economically active population (those in work plus those seeking and available to work) who are unemployed.

Regional estimates for the unemployment rate are volatile, which needs to be allowed for when considering the pattern of change over time.

The unemployment rate estimate for people aged 16 years and over for the UK was 3.9% for the period February to April 2020; this is largely unchanged compared with the previous quarter (November 2019 to January 2020) (Figure 5).

The UK region with the highest unemployment rate estimate for February to April 2020 was the North East at 5.2%, followed by the West Midlands at 4.8%.

The region with the lowest estimated unemployment rate was Northern Ireland at 2.3%, which was a joint record low for the region, along with a joint record low unemployment level. This was followed by the South East, South West and Wales, all with an unemployment rate of 3.0%.

The largest increase in the unemployment rate estimate on the previous quarter (November 2019 to January 2020) was seen in Scotland at 1.1 percentage points, followed by the West Midlands at 0.3 percentage points. It is too early to say to what extent the unusually large increase in the estimate for Scotland is part of a longer term trend, or influenced by sampling variability.

The largest decrease in the unemployment rate estimate was in the North East at 1.0 percentage point, down from 6.2% to 5.2%. This was followed by Yorkshire and The Humber, with a decrease of 0.7 percentage points, and the North West, East Midlands and Wales, all with a decrease of 0.3 percentage points. The South West was largely unchanged compared with the previous quarter.

The region with the largest increase in the unemployment rate estimate over the year was Scotland at 1.3 percentage points, followed by the East of England at 0.7 percentage points. The largest decrease was in Wales at 1.3 percentage points, followed by Yorkshire and The Humber at 1.0 percentage point. The South East remained largely unchanged compared with the same period last year.

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8. Economic inactivity

Economic inactivity measures people without a job but who are not classed as unemployed because they have not been actively seeking work within the last four weeks and/or they are unable to start work within the next two weeks. Our headline measure of economic inactivity is for those aged between 16 and 64 years.

The estimated economic inactivity rate for people aged between 16 and 64 years for the UK was 20.5% for the period February to April 2020; this is an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared with the previous quarter (November 2019 to January 2020).

The UK region with the highest estimated rate was Northern Ireland at 26.7%, followed by Wales at 23.2%. Northern Ireland also had the highest economic inactivity rate, at 26.4%, in the same period the previous year. The current estimated rate in Northern Ireland is 6.2 percentage points higher than the UK rate.

The region with the lowest estimated rate was the South East at 17.9%, followed by the South West at 18.5% (Figure 6).

The region with the largest increase in the economic inactivity rate estimate on the previous quarter (November 2019 to January 2020) was the South West at 0.9 percentage points, followed by Northern Ireland at 0.8 percentage points and the West Midlands at 0.7 percentage points.

The region with the largest decrease in the economic inactivity rate estimate compared with the previous quarter (November 2019 to January 2020) was the North East at 1.3 percentage points, followed by Yorkshire and The Humber and London, both at 0.6 percentage points. The unusually large decrease in the estimate for the North East resulted in a record low level and rate of 22.2%.

Over the year, the region with the largest increase in the economic inactivity rate estimate was Wales at 2.3 percentage points, followed by the South West at 1.0 percentage point. As seen with the quarterly estimates, the region with the largest decrease in the inactivity rate estimate compared with last year (February to April 2019) was the North East at 2.8 percentage points, followed by London at 1.9 percentage points.

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9. Local labour market indicators

Indicators from the Annual Population Survey (first published 21 April 2020)

For the period January to December 2019, the local authorities with the highest employment rate estimates in the UK were Torridge at 90.9%, Adur in West Sussex at 90.4% and Eden in Cumbria at 89.2%. Middlesbrough was the local authority with the lowest rate at 62.9%, followed by Barrow-in-Furness at 63.3% and Nottingham at 63.9%.

For the period January to December 2019, the local authorities with the highest unemployment rate estimates in the UK were Birmingham at 8.2%, followed by Middlesbrough at 7.6% and Hartlepool and South Tyneside, both at 7.5%. The local authorities with the lowest rates were Eden in Cumbria at 1.5%, followed by South Lakeland at 1.6% and Hart in Hampshire at 1.7%.

Jobs densities (first published 21 January 2020)

The jobs density of an area is the number of jobs per head, of resident population, aged 16 to 64 years. A high jobs density would represent an employment centre, where people commute to for work. A low jobs density would represent an area with fewer jobs, where people would commute from for work.

In 2018, the highest jobs density estimate in Great Britain was the City of London at 110.11 and the lowest was Lewisham at 0.40. Westminster (4.28) and Camden (2.17), both in London, were the next highest jobs densities. The highest jobs density estimate outside London was Watford at 1.80. After Lewisham, the lowest jobs densities were East Renfrewshire at 0.45, followed by East Dunbartonshire, Redbridge and Waltham Forest, all at 0.47.

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10. Regional labour market data

Headline Labour Force Survey indicators for all regions
Dataset HI00 | Released 16 June 2020
Headline labour market indicators from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) for all of the UK regions. These cover economic activity, employment, unemployment and economic inactivity. Datasets HI01 to HI12 provide all regional level indicators for each region of the UK.

Claimant Count by unitary and local authority (experimental)
Dataset CC01 | Released 16 June 2020
Claimant Count for people resident in local and unitary authorities, counties, and regions of the UK.

Regional labour market summary
Dataset S01 | Released 16 June 2020
Labour market indicators for countries and regions of the UK, covering employment, unemployment, Claimant Count and workforce jobs.

Local indicators for counties and local and unitary authorities
Dataset LI01 | Released 21 April 2020
Labour market indicators for local and unitary authorities, counties, and regions in Great Britain for a 12-month period.

All regional labour market datasets used in this bulletin are available on the Related data page.

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11. Glossary

Actual and usual hours worked

Statistics for usual hours worked measure how many hours people usually work per week. Compared with actual hours worked, they are not affected by absences and so can provide a better measure of normal working patterns. For example, a person who usually works 37 hours a week but who was on holiday for a week would be recorded as working zero actual hours for that week, while usual hours would be recorded as 37 hours.

Economic inactivity

People not in the labour force (also known as economically inactive) are not in employment but do not meet the internationally accepted definition of unemployment because they have not been seeking work within the last four weeks and/or they are unable to start work in the next two weeks. The economic inactivity rate is the proportion of people aged between 16 and 64 years who are not in the labour force.

Employment

Employment measures the number of people in paid work or who had a job that they were temporarily away from (for example, because they were on holiday or off sick). This differs from the number of jobs because some people have more than one job. The employment rate is the proportion of people aged between 16 and 64 years who are in employment. A more detailed explanation is available in our guide to labour market statistics.

Local labour market indicators

Local labour market indicators cover employment, unemployment, economic inactivity and jobs density for sub-regional geographic areas such as local and unitary authorities, counties, and regions in the UK for the most recent 12-month period available of the Annual Population Survey (APS). The jobs density of an area is the number of jobs per head, of resident population, aged 16 to 64 years.

Unemployment

Unemployment measures people without a job who have been actively seeking work within the last four weeks and are available to start work within the next two weeks. The unemployment rate is not the proportion of the total population who are unemployed. It is the proportion of the economically active population (those in work plus those seeking and available to work) who are unemployed.

A more detailed glossary is available.

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12. Measuring the data

This bulletin shows the latest main labour market statistics for the regions and countries of the UK, along with statistics for local authorities, travel-to-work areas and Parliamentary constituencies.

Data for Northern Ireland, although included in this bulletin, are available in full separately, in the Northern Ireland Labour Market Report on the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) website. Regional and local area statistics are available from Nomis®.

Latest updates

From the March 2020 release, this bulletin has been presented in a new format, which, following a review from our publishing team, has been designed in line with the Office for National Statistics’ (ONS’s) new style guide and provides a more user-friendly experience. The title of the release has also changed to ‘Labour market in the regions of the UK’. All previous release titles have remained unchanged but are still linked to the new release. All data contained within the release have not changed, so all data and commentary within the bulletin are still directly comparable.

Coronavirus (COVID-19)

In response to the developing coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, we are working to ensure that we continue to publish economic statistics. For more information, please see COVID-19 and the production of statistics.

We have reviewed all publications and data published as part of the labour market release in response to the coronavirus pandemic. This has led to the postponement of some publications and datasets to ensure that we can continue to publish our main labour market data. This will protect the delivery and quality of our remaining outputs as well as ensuring we can respond to new demands as a direct result of the coronavirus.

For more information on how labour market data sources, among others, will be affected by the coronavirus pandemic, see the statement published on 27 March 2020. A further article published on 6 May 2020, detailed some of the challenges that we have faced in producing estimates at this time.

Our latest data and analysis on the impact of the coronavirus on the UK economy and population is available on our dedicated COVID-19 webpage.

Impact on production of vacancy and workforce job estimates

Because of social distancing measures leading to the temporary closure of businesses across the UK, there have been some difficulties in collecting data using the Vacancy Survey and the Short Term Employment Surveys. Survey response rates were lower than is typical. To protect the quality of our output, we have used alternative sources where possible to inform data. We have used Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) section level indications from the Business Impact of COVID-19 Survey (BICS), as well as survey contributor-level comments provided to us over the telephone or electronically, as a guide on whether businesses are operational and likely, or not, to be actively recruiting and to confirm employment figures.

After EU withdrawal

As the UK leaves the EU, it is important that our statistics continue to be of high quality and are internationally comparable. During the transition period, those UK statistics that align with EU practice and rules will continue to do so in the same way as before 31 January 2020.

After the transition period, we will continue to produce our labour market statistics in line with the UK Statistics Authority’s Code of Practice for Statistics and in accordance with ILO definitions and agreed international statistical guidance.

Data sources

This bulletin includes labour market estimates at a regional level from the Labour Forcey Survey (LFS) on total employment, unemployment and economic inactivity. More detailed regional estimates for employment by age, full-time and part-time working, economic activity and economic inactivity by age, and reasons for economic inactivity are provided using the Annual Population Survey (APS). Any estimates for geographic areas below regional level are provided using the APS. In tables where the APS estimates are provided for detailed geographic areas, regional and national estimates are also provided from the APS for comparability.

The LFS is a household survey using international definitions of employment, unemployment and economic inactivity. It compiles a wide range of related topics such as occupation, training, hours of work and personal characteristics of household members aged 16 years and over. Estimates are produced every month for a rolling three-monthly period, based on interviews that took place throughout the three months; for example, February to April data in a release will be followed by data for March to May in the next release.

The APS, which began in 2004, is compiled from interviews for the LFS, along with additional regional samples. The APS comprises the main variables from the LFS, with a much larger sample size. Consequently, the APS supports more detailed breakdowns than can be reliably produced from the LFS. Estimates are produced every quarter for a rolling annual period; for example, January to December data will be followed by data for April to March when they are next updated.

A comparison between estimates of employment and jobs is available.

Comparisons with earlier data

The most robust estimates of short-term movements in estimates derived from the LFS are obtained by comparing the estimates for February to April 2020 with the estimates for November 2019 to January 2020, which were first released on 17 March 2019. This provides a more robust estimate than comparing with the estimates for January to March 2020. This is because the February and March 2020 data are included within both estimates, so observed differences are only between January and April 2020. The LFS is representative of the UK population over a three-month period, not for single-month periods.

Quality and methodology

More quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in the Quality and Methodology Information (QMI) reports for various labour market topics:

Further information about the LFS is available from the LFS – user guidance.

A guide to labour market statistics, which includes a glossary, is also available for further information.

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13. Strengths and limitations

Strengths

We have developed a framework for labour market statistics to describe the concepts within the labour market and their relationship to each other. The framework is based on labour supply and demand. This approach has wide international acceptance, including by the International Labour Organization (ILO).

The labour market statistics are used by a range of users, including central and local government, the media, trade unions and businesses. They are used for the analysis, evaluation, monitoring and planning of the labour market and economy. They are also used for social analysis and help inform a range of government policies towards population groups of concern (such as women, young people, older people and jobless households).

Accuracy and reliability

Most of the figures in this statistical bulletin come from surveys of households or businesses. Surveys gather information from a sample rather than from the whole population. The sample is designed carefully to allow for this and to be as accurate as possible given practical limitations such as time and cost constraints, but results from sample surveys are always estimates, not precise figures. This means that they are subject to a margin of error, which can have an impact on how changes in the numbers should be interpreted, especially in the short term.

Changes in the numbers reported in this statistical bulletin (and especially the rates) between three-month periods are usually not greater than the margin of error. In practice, this means that small, short-term movements in reported rates (for example, within plus or minus 0.3 percentage points) should be treated as indicative and considered alongside medium- and long-term patterns in the series and corresponding movements in administrative sources, where available, to give a fuller picture.

Seasonal adjustment

All estimates discussed in this statistical bulletin are seasonally adjusted except where otherwise stated. Like many economic indicators, the labour market is affected by factors that tend to occur at around the same time every year; for example, school leavers entering the labour market in July and whether Easter falls in March or April. To compare movements other than annual changes in labour market statistics, the data are seasonally adjusted to remove the effects of seasonal factors and the arrangement of the calendar.

Revisions

One indication of the reliability of the main indicators in this bulletin can be obtained by monitoring the size of revisions. These summary measures are available in Dataset S02 Regional labour market: Sampling variability and revisions summary and show the size of revisions over the last five years.

The revised data may be subject to sampling or other sources of error. Our standard presentation is to show five years’ worth of revisions (that is, 60 observations for a monthly series, 20 for a quarterly series).

Sampling variability

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Manylion cyswllt ar gyfer y Bwletin ystadegol

Bob Watson
Labour.Supply@ons.gov.uk
Ffôn: +44 (0)1633 455 070