UK trade: August 2019

• The total trade deficit (goods and services) narrowed £13.0 billion to £4.6 billion in the three months to August 2019, largely caused by falling trade in goods imports.

• Imports of goods fell £9.2 billion to £118.8 billion in the three months to August 2019 following rises in imports in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2019, impacting the three months to May 2019.

• Excluding unspecified goods (which includes non-monetary gold), the trade deficit narrowed £3.8 billion to £7.9 billion in the three months to August 2019, while the goods deficit narrowed £3.3 billion to £31.7 billion.

• Non-EU countries drove the narrowing of the trade in goods deficit, which narrowed £10.4 billion to £6.5 billion, largely caused by falling non-EU imports of £5.9 billion to £55.3 billion in the three months to August 2019.

• Removing the effect of inflation, the total trade deficit in volume terms narrowed £12.9 billion to £4.3 billion in the three months to August 2019.

• The total trade deficit (goods and services) widened £18.6 billion to £50.4 billion in the 12 months to August 2019 compared with the 12 months to August 2018, driven mainly by a widening of the goods deficit of £11.5 billion to £150.0 billion.

Data revision policy

All of the data in this release have been revised back to January 1998 when compared with trade figures published in our previous trade bulletin on 9 September 2019. Data in this release are consistent with estimates published in the quarterly gross domestic product (GDP), sector and financial accounts (SFA), and balance of payments (BoP), consistent with Blue Book 2019 published on 30 September 2019. For more information see Impact of Blue Book 2019 developments on UK trade data, 1997 to 2016

National Statistics designation status

The UK Statistics Authority suspended the National Statistics designation of UK trade (PDF 72.8KB) on 14 November 2014. We have now responded to all of the specific requirements of the reassessment of UK trade and are in the final stages of providing evidence to the Authority.

We are undertaking a programme of improvements to UK trade statistics in line with the UK trade development plan, including more detail and improvements now published to address anticipated future demands. On 24 October 2018, we published an article outlining our achievements so far and forward look regarding the transformation of our trade statistics.

We continue to work with the Office for Statistics Regulation team to regain National Statistics status for UK trade statistics. We welcome feedback on our new trade statistics, developments and future plans. If you have any comments, please send them by email to trade@ons.gov.uk.

UK trade data

Unless otherwise specified, data within this bulletin are in current prices, in other words, they have not been adjusted to remove the effects of inflation.

UK trade data within our monthly trade bulletin are published at around a six-week lag because of the timeliness of source data. For example, the January 2020 publication will include data up to the end of November 2019.

Erratic commodities

Trade statistics for any one month can be erratic. For that reason, we recommend comparing the latest three months with the preceding three months, and the same three months of the previous year.

Oil and other “erratic” commodities can make a large contribution to trade in goods, but often mask the underlying trend in the export or import values due to their volatility. The “erratics” series includes ships, aircraft, precious stones, silver and non-monetary gold. Therefore, we also publish data exclusive of these commodities, which may provide a better guide to the emerging trade picture.

Non-monetary gold

In line with international standards, the Office for National Statistics’ (ONS’s) headline trade statistics contain the UK’s exports and imports of non-monetary gold. Non-monetary gold is the technical term for gold bullion not owned by central banks.

Because a significant amount of the world’s trade in non-monetary gold takes place on the London markets, this trade can have a large impact on the size of and change in the UK’s headline trade figures.

Non-monetary gold is one subcomponent of the commodity group “unspecified goods”.

More information about the ONS’s recording of non-monetary gold is available.

Trade asymmetries

These data are our best estimates of bilateral UK trade flows, compiled following internationally agreed standards and using a wide range of robust data sources. However, in some cases alternative estimates of bilateral trade flows are available from the statistical agencies for those countries or through central databases such as UN Comtrade. Differences between estimates are known as trade asymmetries and are a known aspect of international trade statistics, affecting bilateral estimates across the globe, not just the UK.

We are heavily engaged in analysis of these asymmetries, developing strong bilateral relationships with other countries to understand, explain and potentially reduce them. We have published a series of analyses showing comparisons and the relative strengths of different estimates, which users may wish to reference to help them better understand the quality of our bilateral trade estimates.

Blue Book 2019

Each year we produce an annual update to the UK National Accounts in the Blue Book and Pink Book and the associated releases. As already announced, the Blue Book and Pink Book 2019 consistent datasets were published on 30 September 2019.

Details have already been provided on the scope in the article Latest developments and changes to be implemented in Blue Book and Pink Book 2019. Indicative impacts on headline gross domestic product (GDP) components for the years 1997 to 2016 were published on 27 June 2019 in the article Blue Book 2019 indicative impacts on GDP current price and chained volume measure estimates: 1997 to 2016. Indicative impacts on the balance of payments for the years 1997 to 2016 were published on 30 August 2019 in the article National Accounts articles: Detailed assessment of changes being introduced to balance of payments annual estimates, 1997 to 2016.

This year, due to the very demanding set of changes in the annual update, we have not fully reconciled 2017 annual data, instead producing an indicative balance to allow further time for final quality assurance of the data. Consequently, the reference year and last base year for all chained volume measure (CVM) series remains as 2016.

The total trade deficit (goods and services) narrowed £13.0 billion to £4.6 billion in the three months to August 2019. This was largely due to imports falling £8.8 billion to £168.5 billion, while exports increased £4.2 billion to £163.9 billion.

The narrowing of the trade deficit was mainly due to a narrowing of the trade in goods deficit of £12.5 billion to £28.4 billion, as goods imports fell £9.2 billion to £118.8 billion, following rises in imports in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2019, affecting the three months to May 2019. Exports increased £3.3 billion to £90.4 billion.

The trade in services surplus widened £0.5 billion to £23.8 billion in the three months to August 2019. Services imports increased £0.4 billion to £49.7 billion, while services exports increased £0.9 billion to £73.5 billion.

Figure 1 and Table 1 show the change to goods, services and total trade balances, along with exports and imports, in the three months to August 2019 compared with the three months to May 2019.

Figure 1: The trade deficit narrowed in the three months to August 2019, due largely to falling goods imports and rising goods exports

Changes in the UK trade balances, exports and imports, three months to August 2019 compared with three months to May 2019

Source: Office for National Statistics

Notes:

1. The arrow direction indicates whether a component has increased or decreased, while the colour denotes the impact the direction of a movement has on the trade balance.
2. For example, an increase in imports is denoted by an upward red arrow, as a rise in imports has a negative impact on the trade balance. An increase in the trade in goods deficit will be indicated by an upwards red arrow as this would have a negative impact on the balance.

Download this image Figure 1: The trade deficit narrowed in the three months to August 2019, due largely to falling goods imports and rising goods exports

.PNG (51.9 kB) .pptx (56.5 kB)

The narrowing of the trade in goods deficit was mainly because of imports falling in the three months to August 2019, largely driven by unspecified goods (including non-monetary gold). Imports of unspecified goods (including non-monetary gold) fell £5.8 billion.

Excluding unspecified goods, the trade deficit narrowed £3.8 billion to £7.9 billion in the three months to August 2019. The trade in goods deficit narrowed £3.3 billion to £31.7 billion. Imports of chemicals, fuels, miscellaneous manufactures, and food and live animals also fell in the three months to August 2019. Chemicals imports fell £0.9 billion, mainly driven by a £0.5 billion fall in medicinal and pharmaceutical products. Imports of fuels fell £0.9 billion, mainly driven by a £1.0 billion fall in gas. Miscellaneous manufactures, and food and live animals both fell by £0.6 billion.

Exports of goods increased £3.3 billion to £90.4 billion in the three months to August 2019. Exports of unspecified goods (including non-monetary gold) increased by £3.3 billion. Machinery and transport equipment exports increased £0.8 billion, due to a £1.6 billion rise in cars. Exports of fuels partially offset these increases as these fell £1.0 billion, mainly driven by a £0.9 billion fall in oil in the three months to August 2019.

The trade in goods deficit with EU countries narrowed £2.1 billion to £21.9 billion and with non-EU countries the deficit narrowed £10.4 billion to £6.5 billion in the three months to August 2019.

Imports from non-EU countries fell by £5.9 billion to £55.3 billion in the three months to August 2019. This was largely because of a fall in unspecified goods (including non-monetary gold) of £5.7 billion. Fuel imports fell £1.0 billion, which was mainly driven by a £1.1 billion fall in gas. The fall in imports was partially offset by a rise in machinery and transport equipment, which increased £1.3 billion, mainly driven by a £1.0 billion rise in ships and aircraft.

Exports to non-EU countries increased £4.5 billion to £48.8 billion in the three months to August 2019, largely because of unspecified goods (including non-monetary gold), which increased £3.0 billion. Exports of machinery and transport equipment increased £1.1 billion, mainly due to a £1.1 billion rise in car exports. Miscellaneous manufactures increased £0.6 billion and fuels decreased £0.5 billion in the three months to August 2019.

Imports from EU countries fell £3.3 billion to £63.5 billion in the three months to August 2019. Imports of machinery and transport equipment fell £1.0 billion, mainly because of a £0.6 billion fall in car imports. Imports of chemicals fell £0.6 billion, mainly because of a £0.4 billion fall in medicinal and pharmaceutical products. Miscellaneous manufactures decreased £0.6 billion, mainly driven by a £0.3 billion fall in jewellery. Food and live animals fell £0.5 billion.

Exports to EU countries fell £1.2 billion to £41.6 billion in the three months to August 2019. Miscellaneous manufactures fell £0.5 billion, mainly because of a £0.2 billion fall in jewellery. Fuels fell £0.5 billion, mainly because of a £0.4 billion fall in oil.

Figure 3 shows the changes in goods exports, imports and balances with EU and non-EU countries in the three months to August 2019.

This section presents volume and price estimates of UK trade exports, imports and balances, using chained volume measures (CVMs) and implied deflators (IDEFs). A CVM is a “real” measure in that it has had the effect of inflation removed. An IDEF shows the implied change in average prices for the respective components of the trade balance. For example, the IDEF for imports will show the average price movement for imports.

In volume terms, the total trade deficit (goods and services) narrowed £12.9 billion to £4.3 billion in the three months to August 2019. The trade in goods deficit narrowed £14.9 billion to £25.2 billion and the trade in services surplus narrowed £2.0 billion to £20.8 billion. Goods imports fell £11.6 billion to £105.9 billion, and goods exports increased £3.2 billion to £80.7 billion in the three months to August 2019.

Services exports increased £0.3 billion to £69.2 billion while imports increased by a greater £2.3 billion to £48.3 billion.

The fall in goods imports was largely due to falling imports of unspecified goods (including non-monetary gold), chemicals, miscellaneous manufactures, material manufactures, fuels, and food and live animals, which fell £6.6 billion, £1.6 billion, £0.9 billion, £0.7 billion, £0.6 billion and £0.6 billion respectively. Goods imports prices grew 2.8% in the three months to August 2019 and export prices decreased 0.5%. Import prices were driven by increasing average prices of unspecified goods (including non-monetary gold), chemicals, and animals and vegetable oils and fats, which rose 21.6%, 5.3% and 4.1% respectively.

Figure 4 shows the UK trade balances on a CVM basis, three-month on three-month from August 2017 to August 2019.

Explore the 2018 trade in goods data using our interactive tools. Our data breaks down UK trade in goods with 234 countries by 125 commodities.

Use our map to get a better understanding of what goods the UK traded with a particular country. Select a country by hovering over it or using the drop-down menu.

Notes:

1. For more information about our methods and how we compile these statistics, please see Trade in goods, country-by-commodity experimental data: 2011 to 2016. Users should note that the data published alongside this release are official statistics and no longer experimental.

2. These data are our best estimate of these bilateral UK trade flows. Users should note that alternative estimates are available, in some cases, through the statistical agencies for bilateral countries or through central databases such as UN Comtrade.

3. Interactive maps denote country boundaries in accordance with statistical classifications set out within Appendix 4 of the Balance of Payments (BoP) Vademecum (PDF, 1.1MB).

What about trade in a particular commodity in 2018?

Use our interactive tools to understand UK trade of a particular commodity in 2018.

Select a commodity from the drop-down menu or click through the levels to explore the data.

Notes:

1. For more information about our methods and how we compile these statistics, please see Trade in goods, country-by-commodity experimental data: 2011 to 2016. Users should note that the data published alongside this release are no longer experimental.

2. These data are our best estimate of these bilateral UK trade flows. Users should note that alternative estimates are available, in some cases, via the statistical agencies for bilateral countries or through central databases such as UN Comtrade.

3. Interactive maps denote country boundaries in accordance with statistical classifications set out within Appendix 4 of the Balance of Payments (BoP) Vademecum (PDF, 1.1MB).

The total trade deficit (goods and services) widened £18.6 billion to £50.4 billion in the 12 months to August 2019, mainly because of a widening of the trade in goods deficit (Figure 5).

The trade in goods deficit widened £11.5 billion to £150.0 billion in the 12 months to August 2019. Imports of goods increased £23.6 billion to £504.1 billion, while exports increased by a lesser £12.1 billion to £354.1 billion.

Rising imports of goods in the 12 months to August 2019 were largely due to unspecified goods (including non-monetary gold), machinery and transport equipment, miscellaneous manufactures and material manufactures, which increased £9.3 billion, £5.7 billion, £3.7 billion and £2.8 billion respectively.

The increase in exports was mainly driven by miscellaneous manufactures, machinery and transport equipment, unspecified goods (including non-monetary gold) and fuels, which increased £5.1 billion, £2.5 billion, £2.4 billion and £2.1 billion respectively.

The trade in services surplus narrowed £7.1 billion to £99.6 billion in the 12 months to August 2019, as imports increased £14.4 billion to £200.6 billion and exports increased by a lesser £7.3 billion to £300.2 billion.

Figure 5: The trade deficit widened in the 12 months, due largely to a widening of the trade in goods deficit

Change to UK trade balances, exports and imports, 12 months to August 2019.

Source: Office for National Statistics

Notes:

1. The arrow direction indicates whether a component has increased or decreased, while the colour denotes the impact the direction of a movement has on the trade balance.
2. For example, an increase in imports is denoted by an upward red arrow, as a rise in imports has a negative impact on the trade balance. An increase in the trade in goods deficit will be indicated by an upwards red arrow as this would have a negative impact on the balance.

Download this image Figure 5: The trade deficit widened in the 12 months, due largely to a widening of the trade in goods deficit

.PNG (51.6 kB) .pptx (57.0 kB)

The £11.5 billion widening of the trade in goods deficit to £150.0 billion in the 12 months to August 2019 was mainly because of trade with non-EU countries (Figure 6). The trade in goods deficit widened £10.1 billion to £55.3 billion with non-EU countries, while the trade in goods deficit with EU countries widened by a lesser £1.4 billion to £94.7 billion in the 12 months to August 2019.

The widening of the trade in goods deficit with non-EU countries in the 12 months to August 2019 was mainly driven by rising imports, which increased £20.1 billion to £237.8 billion, while exports increased by a lesser £10.1 billion to £182.5 billion.

The largest contributors to the increase in imports from non-EU countries were unspecified goods (including non-monetary gold), which increased £9.6 billion, machinery and transport equipment increased £3.7 billion and material manufactures increased £2.2 billion.

The increase in non-EU exports was largely driven by an increase in miscellaneous manufactures and unspecified goods, which increased £3.9 billion and £2.1 billion respectively.

The £1.4 billion widening of the trade in goods deficit with EU countries was due to increasing imports, which increased £3.4 billion to £266.3 billion. Exports increased by a lesser £2.1 billion to £171.6 billion.

Increased imports from EU countries were largely because of machinery and transport equipment and miscellaneous manufactures, which increased £2.0 billion and £1.8 billion respectively, partially offset by a fall in fuels of £1.9 billion.

Rising exports from the EU countries were largely because of fuels and machinery and transport equipment, which increased £1.8 billion and £1.4 billion respectively, partially offset by a £2.6 billion fall in chemicals.

On 31 July 2019, we published Modes of supply, UK experimental estimates: 2018. This release contains the first exploratory estimates of UK trade in services broken down by mode of supply, showing how services trade is conducted, in addition to what is traded and with whom. The UK is one of the first countries to have developed such estimates.

On 24 July 2019, we published UK trade in services by partner country: January to March 2019. Alongside this release we published a dataset containing UK total trade, goods and services by partner country up to Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2019, providing a geographical breakdown of the most recent and consistent UK trade estimates.

On 15 May 2019, we published UK trade in services by industry, country and service type, presenting a new experimental dataset for trade in services by industry, country and service type on a balance of payments basis.

On 24 April 2019, we published UK trade in goods by industry, country and commodity: 2008 to 2017, presenting an updated experimental dataset for UK trade in goods by industry, country and commodity on a balance of payments basis.

On 29 January 2019, we published New frontiers in trade analysis, which summarises recent developments in UK goods and services statistics and examines recent trends in UK trade of road vehicles using our more granular trade in goods data..

On 24 October 2018, we published UK trade statistics transformation: achievements and forward look, which summarises our transformation of UK trade statistics, highlighting the delivery of new detail and analysis and the focus of ongoing developments.

On 24 October 2018, we published Estimating the value of service exports abroad from different parts of the UK: 2011 to 2016, which provides a breakdown of services exports by functional category from the nine English regions, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

On 24 September 2018, we published Why has the UK trade in goods deficit widened in real terms? The article uses our new country by commodity data to look at the UK trade in goods deficit over the past 20 years and highlights which countries and commodities have been behind the growth of the deficit.

On 6 July 2018, we published UK trade in goods and productivity: new findings. This article describes a new dataset we have developed, which includes information from both the Annual Business Survey and HM Revenue and Customs’ (HMRC) trade in goods administrative data. It shows a strong association between trader status and productivity, highlighting the prevalence of trading behaviour across different types of business.

Supplementary quarterly data analysed by product according to the UK trade in goods by classification of product by activity (CPA 2008) are also available.

Trade is measured through both exports and imports of goods and services. Data are supplied by over 30 sources including several administrative sources, HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) being the largest for trade in goods.

This monthly release contains tables showing the total value of trade in goods in current prices (CP) together with chained volume measures (CVMs) and implied deflators (IDEFs). Figures are analysed by broad commodity group (CP, CVMs and IDEFs) and according to geographical area (CP only). In addition, the UK trade statistical bulletin also includes early monthly estimates of the value of trade in services.

Further qualitative data and information can be found in the attached datasets. This includes data on:

• response rates

• revision triangles

Detailed methodological notes are published in UK Balance of Payments, The Pink Book 2018.

The UK trade methodology web pages have been developed to provide detailed information about the methods used to produce UK trade statistics.

The UK trade Quality and Methodology Information report contains important information on:

• the strengths and limitations of the data and how it compares with related data

• uses and users of the data

• how the output was created

• the quality of the output including the accuracy of the data