Consumer price inflation, UK: September 2022

• The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) rose by 8.8% in the 12 months to September 2022, up from 8.6% in August and returning to July’s recent high.

• The largest upward contributions to the annual CPIH inflation rate in September 2022 came from housing and household services (principally from electricity, gas and other fuels, and owner occupiers’ housing costs), food and non-alcoholic beverages, and transport (principally motor fuels).

• On a monthly basis, CPIH rose by 0.4% in September 2022, compared with a rise of 0.3% in September 2021.

• The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 10.1% in the 12 months to September 2022, up from 9.9% in August and returning to July’s recent high.

• On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.5% in September 2022, compared with a rise of 0.3% in September 2021.

• Rising food prices made the largest upward contribution to the change in both the CPIH and CPI annual inflation rates between August and September 2022.

• The continued fall in the price of motor fuels made the largest, partially offsetting, downward contribution to the change in the rates.

The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) rose by 8.8% in the 12 months to September 2022, up from 8.6% in August.

The CPIH annual rate returned to July’s level, which was last higher in the constructed historical estimates in December 1990, when it stood at 9.2%. On a monthly basis, CPIH rose by 0.4% in September 2022, compared with a rise of 0.3% in the same month a year earlier.

The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 10.1% in the 12 months to September 2022, up from 9.9% in August. The CPI monthly rate was 0.5% in September 2022, compared with 0.3% in September 2021. In September 2022, the CPI annual inflation rate returned to the July level, which was the highest annual CPI inflation rate in the National Statistic series, which began in January 1997. Indicative modelled consumer price inflation estimates suggest that the CPI rate would last have been higher around 1982, where estimates range from nearly 11% in January down to approximately 6.5% in December.

The largest contribution to the annual rate in September 2022 for both CPIH and CPI is from housing and household services. The second largest contribution came from food and non-alcoholic beverages, which has overtaken that from transport.

As with last month, rising food prices meant that food and non-alcoholic beverages made the largest upward contribution to the change in the annual inflation rate in September 2022, while falling pump prices for motor fuels made a large offsetting downward contribution. We consider these movements in more detail in Section 3.

The main drivers of the annual inflation rate for CPIH and CPI are the same where they are common to both measures. However, owner occupiers’ housing costs (OOH) component accounts for around 17% of the CPIH, and it is the main driver for differences between the CPIH and CPI inflation rates. This makes CPIH our most comprehensive measure of inflation and is it covered in more detail in Section 4 in this bulletin, while Section 5 provides commentary on the CPI.

The increase to the annual inflation rate in September 2022 reflected, principally, rising food and non-alcoholic beverage prices. There were also increases from hotel overnight stays, and from furniture and household goods. A large partially offsetting, downward effect came from price of motor fuels in the transport section.

Food and non-alcoholic beverages

Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices rose by 14.6% in the 12 months to September 2022, up from 13.1% in August. The annual rate of inflation for this category has continued to rise for the last 14 consecutive months, from negative 0.6% in July 2021. The current rate is estimated to be the highest since April 1980, as presented in the consumer price inflation extended historic series.

The increase in the annual rate for food and non-alcoholic beverages between August and September 2022 was driven by price movements across eight of the more detailed classes. The largest upward effects came from bread and cereals, meat products, and milk, cheese and eggs, where prices rose between August and September 2022, but fell between the same two months in 2021.

Overall prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages have risen throughout 2022, however prices rose more slowly (by 1.1%) between August and September 2022, than between July and August 2022 (where prices increased by 1.5%).

Restaurants and hotels

There was an overall upward contribution of 0.08 percentage points to the change in the annual inflation rate from restaurants and hotels. The movement came entirely from accommodation services, which was the result of differing seasonal patterns between this year and last year. The price of hotel overnight stays had fallen in August 2022 but rose by 3.6% between August and September 2022. In 2021, prices peaked in August before falling by 8.4% into September, which has resulted in this year’s large upward contribution.

Furniture and household goods

The annual rate of inflation for furniture and household goods rose to 10.8% in September 2022, from 10.2% in August. Prices overall rose by 1.5% on the month in 2022, compared with a smaller rise of 0.9% in September 2021.

The increase in the annual rate between August and September came from four of the six more detailed groups. The largest change came from household appliances, fitting and repairs, where prices for washing machines, electric fans, and vacuum cleaners all rose this year, but had either fallen or had been largely unchanged between August and September 2021.

Housing and household services

The annual rate for housing and household services increased by 0.1 percentage points to 9.3% in September 2022. Housing and household services costs increased by 0.3% on the month in 2022, compared with a smaller increase of 0.2% in September 2021.

The increase in the annual rate between August and September 2022 came from owner occupiers’ housing costs, private rents, and electricity, gas and other fuels, where prices rose by more compared with a year ago. Despite electricity and gas prices remaining unchanged, the cost for delivered kerosene increased by 13.6% between August and September 2022, compared with a smaller increase (of 4.6% in 2021). Prices usually increase in October each year when homes reliant on liquid fuels tend to refuel ahead of the colder months.

Transport

The annual inflation rate for transport was 10.9% in September 2022, down for a third month in a row from a peak of 15.2% in June 2022.

As with August, motor fuel price changes are the main driver behind the overall movements within transport. Fuel prices increased by 26.5% in the year to September 2022, down from 32.1% in August.

Average petrol and diesel prices stood at 166.5 and 181.6 pence per litre, respectively, in September 2022, compared with 134.9 and 137.4 pence per litre a year earlier. While prices are still higher than a year ago, petrol prices fell by 8.7 pence per litre on the month and diesel prices fell by 5.0 pence per litre. This explains the further easing in the annual rate for motor fuels which reduced from 32.1% in August 2022.

Elsewhere in the transport division, the price of air fares fell by 25.1% between August and September 2022, as the seasonal demand for flights reduced at the end of the school holidays. In September 2022, prices were 35.7% higher than a year earlier, with the largest increases coming from domestic and European flights.

The annual rate of inflation for second-hand cars reduced to 2.4% in the year to September 2022, down from 4.6% in August. This is the sixth consecutive month since March 2022 that the annual rate has eased. Although prices have fallen between March and September 2022, much of the change in the annual inflation rate is a base effect as prices rose by nearly 22% between March and September 2021 following reports of increased demand, combined with restricted supply.

Figure 4 shows the annual inflation rates for the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) all goods and all services series, together with CPIH excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco (often referred to as core CPIH). The CPIH inflation rate is added for comparison.

Between August and September 2022, the goods, services and core CPIH annual inflation rates all increased. The CPIH goods annual inflation rate increased to 13.2% in September 2022, from 13.0% in August, following a 0.7% increase in the month. Between August and September 2022, CPIH services rose by 0.2%, which meant that the annual inflation rate rose to 5.3% in September 2022, from 5.1% in August. Although CPIH goods inflation did not exceed the high of 13.6% in July 2022, both CPIH services and core CPIH inflation are now at the highest rate since March 1993 and March 1992, respectively.

Figure 5 shows how each of the main groups of goods and services contributed to the change in the annual CPIH inflation rate between August and September 2022. To understand what has changed the inflation rate between these months, we can look at the differences between the contributions made by the groups to the rate in August 2022, and the rate in September 2022. Summing the contributions to change across the 12 divisions results in the change to the annual CPIH rate between the latest two months, that is, the rise from 8.6% to 8.8%.

The increase to the annual CPIH rate into September 2022 was driven by contributions from 7 of the 12 divisions, with the largest upward contribution (of 0.13 percentage points) coming from food and non-alcoholic beverages. There were notable upward contributions from restaurants and hotels (0.08 percentage points), furniture and household goods (0.05 percentage points), and housing and household services (0.04 percentage points). However, the combined upward contributions were partially offset by a large downward contribution (of 0.16 percentage points) from transport, principally from motor fuels.

Figure 6 shows the extent to which the distinct categories of goods and services have contributed to the overall annual CPIH inflation rate over the past two years. The contribution of lower-level spending categories to the annual rate depends on both the price movement in those categories as well as their weight. Contributions help to understand what is driving the inflation rate by expressing it as the additive sum of its parts. For any one month, when added together, the contributions from the 12 divisions sum to the overall CPIH inflation rate, for example, 8.8% in September 2022.

The largest upward contributions to the annual CPIH inflation rate in September 2022 came from housing and household services (principally from electricity, gas and other fuels, and owner occupiers’ housing costs), food and non-alcoholic beverages, and transport. Contributions from these three divisions accounted for 5.5 percentage points, which is nearly two-thirds of the annual CPIH inflation rate compared with just over half the expenditure in the CPIH basket.

There was an increase of 0.13 percentage points to the contribution to the annual CPIH inflation rate from food and non-alcoholic beverages between August and September 2022. Along with a fall of 0.16 percentage points to the contribution from transport, this means that, in September 2022, food and non-alcoholic beverages is the second largest contributor to the annual CPIH inflation rate.

The contributions from food and non-alcoholic beverages (1.33 percentage points) and restaurants and hotels (0.87 percentage points), which have both increased between August and September 2022, are the largest since the start of the National Statistics series in 2006.

The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) differs from the CPIH in that it does not include owner occupiers’ housing costs (OOH) and Council Tax. Figure 7 shows the contribution of these components to the annual CPIH inflation rate in the context of wider housing-related costs. In September 2022, the contribution of housing and household services in total to the annual CPIH inflation rate was 2.94 percentage points, up from 2.90 percentage points in August. The September figure was the highest in the National Statistic series, which began in January 2006.

The relatively high contribution to the rate since April 2022 came mainly from electricity, gas and other fuels. This reflects price rises for gas and electricity following the increase in the Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem) cap on energy prices on 1 April 2022, and follows an earlier rise in the price cap on 1 October 2021. Electricity prices rose by 54.0% and gas prices by 95.7% in the 12 months to September 2022, leading to a 1.85 percentage point contribution to the annual inflation rate from electricity, gas and other fuels in total.

The energy price cap has been replaced by the Government's Energy Price Guarantee (EPG) as of 1 October 2022. The EPG will be in place until April 2023. It is expected to fix the unit cost of electricity and gas.

At the time of publication, we have not determined whether the EPG will impact on the measures of consumer price inflation. We plan to complete a classification assessment of the EPG during October 2022. Once the classification review has been completed and the effect on inflation statistics has been considered, we will make an announcement on 31 October 2022, see (see Section 8).

OOH’s contribution to the CPIH annual inflation rate rose from 0.61 to 0.62 percentage points between August and September 2022, increasing the annual rate by 0.01 percentage points. This is a result of a further increase to costs of 0.3% in September 2022, compared with a marginally smaller rise a year earlier.

The contribution to the annual rate from Council Tax remains unchanged at 0.10 percentage points in September 2022. This reflects an annual rate of 3.4%.

While the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) is our lead and most comprehensive measure of consumer price inflation, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) is based on a harmonised methodology developed by Eurostat and allows for international comparisons to be drawn. For more information on the use cases for our consumer price inflation statistics, please refer to our Measuring changing prices and costs for consumers and households, proposed updates: March 2020 article.

Figure 8 shows the annual inflation rates for the CPI all goods and all services series, together with CPI excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco (often referred to as core CPI).

Figure 9 shows how each of the main groups of goods and services contributed to the change in the annual CPI inflation rate between August and September 2022.

Like CPIH, the rise in the annual CPI rate into September 2022 was driven by contributions from 7 of the 12 divisions. The largest upward contributions came from food and non-alcoholic beverages (0.16 percentage points), restaurants and hotels (0.10 percentage points), furniture and household goods (0.06 percentage points), and miscellaneous goods and services (0.04 percentage points). These upward contributions were partially offset by a large downward contribution (of 0.20 percentage points) from transport, particularly motor fuels (0.17 percentage points).

Figure 10 shows the extent to which the distinct categories of goods and services have contributed to the overall annual CPI inflation rate over the last two years.

While the CPIH includes extra housing components not included in the CPI, the largest contributions to the annual CPI inflation rate were from the same divisions that made the largest contributions to the annual CPIH rate, namely housing and household services, transport, and food and non-alcoholic beverages.

Figure 11 illustrates CPI inflation against the Group of Seven (G7) countries that produce a comparable measure.

Annual inflation rate

The most common approach to measuring inflation is the 12-month or annual inflation rate, which compares prices for the latest month with the same month a year ago. In any given month, the annual rate is determined by the balance between upward and downward price movements of the range of goods and services included in the index.

Consumer price inflation

Consumer price inflation is the rate at which the prices of goods and services bought by households rise or fall. It is estimated by using price indices. For an overview of the indices and their uses, please see our Consumer price indices, a brief guide: 2017 article.

Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH)

CPIH is the most comprehensive measure of inflation. It extends the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) to include a measure of the costs associated with owning, maintaining and living in one’s own home, known as owner occupiers’ housing costs (OOH), along with Council Tax. Both are significant expenses for many households and are not included in the CPI.

Consumer Prices Index

The CPI is a measure of consumer price inflation produced to international standards and in line with European regulations. The CPI is the inflation measure used in the government’s target for inflation.

The CPI is produced at the same level of detail as the CPIH in the accompanying dataset and accompanying data time series.

Retail Prices Index (RPI)

RPI does not meet the required standard for designation as a National Statistic. In recognition that it continues to be widely used in contracts, we continue to publish the RPI, its subcomponents and RPI excluding mortgage interest payments (RPIX). To view the all-items RPI, please see the data time series section of the inflation and price indices area of our website. The annual RPI inflation rate was 12.6% in September 2022.

The UK Statistics Authority and HM Treasury launched a consultation in 2020 on the authority's proposal to address the shortcomings of the RPI. From 2030 (at the earliest), as outlined in the UK Statistics Authority response to the consultation, the CPIH methods and data sources will be introduced into the RPI. Additionally, the supplementary and lower-level indices of the RPI will be discontinued.

Treatment of the Energy Bills Support Scheme (EBSS)

On 3 February 2022, the UK government announced an Energy Bills Rebate package to help households to manage rising energy bills. On 26 May 2022, the UK government announced an additional Cost of Living Support package. These packages included:

• a £150 non-repayable Council Tax rebate payment for all households that are liable for Council Tax in Bands A to D in England

• a £400 payment to support households with their energy bills through the Energy Bills Support Scheme

Decisions on whether to include rebates, subsidies and discounts in our consumer price inflation statistics are not clear cut and are taken on a case-by-case basis. We aim to be consistent with the national accounts, the public sector finances and other economic statistics. Decisions are based on international statistical guidance and practical considerations. More information on this is provided in Section 9.2 of our Consumer Price Indices Technical Manual. We have previously announced that the Council Tax rebate is out of scope of the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) and Retail Prices Index (RPI). Council Tax is not included in the Consumer Prices Index (CPI).

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) classifications assessment of the EBSS and its treatment in consumer price indices was announced on 31 August 2022. The EBSS has been classified as a current transfer paid by central government to the households sector. As such, the transfers increase household income rather than reduce household expenditure. The implication of this decision, and in line with the ONS's previous decision on the classification of the Council Tax rebate, is that the EBSS is not part of household expenditure and will therefore be treated as out of scope of the consumer price indices.

Other more recently announced policy proposals will go through the same ONS procedures to determine their treatment in the national accounts and consumer price inflation statistics.

Assessment of Energy Price Guarantee (EPG)

As announced in the classifications Forward work plan published on 30 September 2022, and the publication of the government's updated Energy Bills Support Factsheet on 12 October 2022, the ONS plans to complete its classification assessment of the Energy Price Guarantee (EPG) and Energy Bill Relief Scheme (EBRS) during October 2022.

Once the classification review of the EPG and EBRS has been completed, the ONS will consider whether they affect inflation statistics. If so, the ONS will consider how the treatment can be consistently incorporated into those statistics. Further information about this aspect will be announced on 31 October 2022. This is the same day that the classification decisions will be updated and published in the latest update section of the Public sector classification guide.

Treatment of Council Tax rebate

In April 2022, a £150 non-repayable Council Tax rebate payment was provided to all households that are liable for Council Tax in Bands A to D in England. There was also further funding available for households that need support but are not eligible for this rebate, and for the devolved countries to administer to households in Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland. This rebate was out of scope of CPIH and therefore not reflected in the figures.

Analysis of least cost grocery items

On 25 October 2022, we are planning to publish an update to our experimental analysis of price changes for a sample of least cost grocery items, previously published in May 2022. The analysis uses in-house web-scraped data to investigate the price movements for a sample of 30 everyday grocery items (including pasta, rice, milk, and so on), which are commonly bought by households on low incomes. For each item, we have investigated the change in price of the cheapest product available in online shops up to September 2022.

Personal inflation calculator

To assist individuals in understanding how the rise in inflation affects their expenditure, we have produced a personal inflation calculator. The calculator allows users to enter the amount they spend across either a reduced or a wide range of categories, to produce an estimate of their personal inflation based on those spending patterns. If you have any questions or comments on the inflation calculator, please email cpi@ons.gov.uk.

Consumer price inflation historical estimates, UK, 1950 to 1988

On 18 May 2022, we published the Consumer price inflation, historical estimates, UK, 1950 to 1988 – methodology. This includes new estimates of CPIH over the period, and improved estimates of CPI. These estimates (published in response to user need for a longer series) are indicative and are for analytical purposes only. They are not intended for official use and do not constitute part of the National Statistic series.

Previously, in December 2018, we published a CPIH historical series covering the period from 1989 to 2005 in the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) historical series: 1988 to 2004 article. This series is an official statistic rather than a National Statistic, reflecting the historical uncertainty around the back casts.

Weights for consumer price inflation statistics

In line with usual practice, the expenditure weights used in compiling the CPIH and CPI will be updated at the start of 2023. Normally the weights would be updated using the latest Blue Book-consistent Household final consumption expenditure (HFCE) dataset, which is lagged by two years. The unprecedented events of the last few years have meant we have adjusted expenditure feeding into the weights update to incorporate some of the larger changes seen in spending patterns so they are more reflective of the year immediately prior to use in consumer inflation. More information on these adjustments can be found in Section 2 of our Consumer price inflation, updating weights: 2022 article.

We are considering the most suitable approach to use for the forthcoming 2023 update of expenditure weights. In particular, this will take into account any continued, large shifts in consumer spending along with international guidance and best practice. We will aim to announce our agreed approach for the update of 2023 consumer inflation weights in the November 2022 release, to be published on 14 December 2022 subject to the publication of international guidance.

Methodology information

The consumer price indices are normally based on prices collected from outlets around the country, supplemented by information collected centrally over the internet and by phone. The figures in this publication use data collected on or around 13 September 2022.

Our Consumer price indices, a brief guide article gives an overview of consumer price statistics, while our Consumer Prices Indices Technical Manual covers the concepts and methodologies underpinning the indices in more detail.

Our CPIH Compendium provides a comprehensive source of information on the CPIH, focusing on the approach to measuring owner occupiers' housing costs.

Our Users and uses of consumer price inflation statistics methodology article includes information on the users and uses of these statistics, and the characteristics of the different measures of inflation in relation to potential use.

We have illustrated our future approach to measuring changing prices and costs faced by consumers and households using three "use cases", along with how they relate to the measures currently published and those under development. We have also published proposed updates in our Measuring changing prices and costs for consumers and households, proposed updates: March 2020 article.

The three cases refer firstly to the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) as our lead measure of inflation based on economic principles. They also refer to the Household Costs Indices (HCIs) as a set of measures to reflect the change in costs as experienced by households, and the Retail Prices Index (RPI) as a legacy measure that is required to meet existing user needs. Our Shortcomings of the RPI as a measure of inflation article describes the issues with the RPI.