Consumer price inflation, UK: November 2018

• The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) 12-month inflation rate was 2.2% in November 2018, unchanged from October 2018.

• The largest downward contributions to change in the 12-month rate came from falls in petrol prices and across a variety of recreational and cultural goods and services, principally games, toys and hobbies, and cultural services.

• These downward effects were offset by increased tobacco prices and, to a lesser extent, price rises in a variety of other categories, for example, accommodation services and passenger sea transport.

• The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate was 2.3% in November 2018, down from 2.4% in October 2018.

The Bank of England were granted exceptional pre-release access to an estimate of the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) at 9:30am on Monday, 17 December 2018 so that the data were available for the Monetary Policy Committee meeting held on that day. Correspondence with the Bank of England about this pre-release is available.

The National Statistics status of the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) was reinstated on 31 July 2017. A letter from the Director General for Regulation to the National Statistician detailed the actions that were taken to meet the requirements as set out in the CPIH assessment report.

We have illustrated our future approach to measuring changing prices and costs faced by consumers and households using three “use cases”, along with how they relate to the measures that we currently publish and those that are under development. Specifically, they refer to the CPIH as our lead measure of inflation based on economic principles; the Household Costs Indices (HCIs, currently under development with preliminary estimates published for the first time on 19 December 2017) as a set of measures to reflect the change in costs as experienced by households; and the Retail Prices Index (RPI) as a legacy measure that is required to meet existing user needs. Shortcomings of the Retail Prices Index as a measure of inflation, released on 8 March 2018, describes the issues with the RPI.

Consumer price inflation is the rate at which the prices of goods and services bought by households rise or fall. It is estimated by using price indices. One way to understand this is to think of a shopping basket containing all the goods and services bought by households. Movements in price indices represent the changing cost of this basket. Consumer price indices – a brief guide gives an overview of the indices and their uses.

The most common approach to measuring inflation is the 12-month inflation rate, which compares prices for the latest month with the same month a year ago. In any given month, the 12-month rate is determined by the balance between upward and downward price movements of the range of goods and services included in the index.

This release also examines how the various types of goods and services contribute to the change in the 12-month inflation rate between the latest two months. The size and direction of these contributions depends on how prices changed between both the latest two months this year and the same two months last year. For example, the price of a product could make an upward contribution to the change in the rate even if it fell, provided that it fell by less than it did between the same two months a year ago. Explaining the contribution to change in the 12-month rate (2013) covers this concept in more detail.

The CPIH is the most comprehensive measure of inflation. It extends the CPI to include a measure of the costs associated with owning, maintaining and living in one’s own home, known as owner occupiers’ housing costs (OOH), along with Council Tax. Both of these are significant expenses for many households and are not included in the CPI.

Aside from including OOH and Council Tax, CPIH is otherwise identical to CPI. This means that, aside from these two components, the factors contributing to the CPI rate are the same as those contributing to the CPIH. For example, if food is reported as increasing the CPIH rate, it is also acting to increase the CPI rate. The size of the contributions for components other than OOH and Council Tax are exaggerated in the CPI compared with the CPIH because they account for a larger proportion of the overall index.

The CPI is produced at the same level of detail as CPIH, in the accompanying dataset and time series.

The Retail Prices Index (RPI) does not meet the required standard for designation as National Statistics. In recognition that it continues to be widely used in contracts, we continue to publish the RPI, its sub-components and RPIX. To view the all-items RPI and 12-month inflation rate and an at-a-glance comparison with other measures, please see the time series section of the inflation and price indices area of our website. The accompanying dataset and time series provide more detailed information.

The figures in this publication use data collected on or around 13 November 2018.

We have published an extended series for CPIH from 1988 to 2004. The extended series is being published as an official statistic, reflecting the limitations with calculating historical estimates. The CPIH series from 2005 remains a National Statistic. The extended series is analysed more fully in the latest Prices economic commentary.

As well as a longer CPIH time series, users will now be able to access more detailed CPI historical estimates for the first time. The data are being published at the class level (the fourth level of the international Classification of individual consumption by purpose, or COICOP). This is more detailed than previous CPI historical estimates, which were only available at the division level (the second COICOP level) between 1988 and 1996.

The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) 12-month rate was 2.2% in November 2018, unchanged from October 2018.

Figure 1 compares the 12-month inflation rates for CPIH and the Consumer Prices Index (CPI), along with the rate for the owner occupiers’ housing costs (OOH) component of CPIH. Given that OOH accounts for around 17% of CPIH, it is the main driver for differences between the CPIH and CPI inflation rates.

Figure 2 shows that price movements for most of the broad categories of goods and services had an upward effect on the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) 12-month rate in November 2018. The exception was clothing and footwear, which had a small downward pull on the rate, with prices falling by 0.8% in the year to November 2018.

The largest upward contribution to the rate in November this year came from housing and household services, with prices rising by 2.0% on the year. Within this broad group, the largest contributions were from owner occupiers’ housing costs and domestic fuels, principally electricity and gas.

There was also a large upward contribution from transport, with prices rising by 4.8% in the year to November 2018. Together, housing and household services, and transport continued to account for over half of the 12-month inflation rate. Within the transport group, the largest contribution continued to come from motor fuels.

Other large upward contributions came from recreation and culture, and restaurants and hotels. Within these categories, the most notable contributions were from package holidays and catering services.

Figure 3 shows the extent to which the different categories of goods and services have contributed to the overall CPIH 12-month rate over the last two years. Transport, and food and non-alcoholic beverages prices have been important factors in driving the changes in the rate. As the overall CPIH rate began to level off from April 2017, the contribution from food and non-alcoholic beverages continued to increase, being offset by a fall in the contribution from transport, particularly motor fuels.

The contributions from most of the categories began to fall back in the early months of 2018, leading to a fall in the 12-month rate. However, the pattern has been more mixed since spring, reflecting the relative stability in the headline rate. For example, the contributions from food and non-alcoholic beverages, and clothing and footwear have broadly continued to decline throughout the year. This compares with housing and household services, where we have observed a small increase to the contribution following increases to utility bills. The contribution from transport has fluctuated, rising between April and August 2018 then falling back again, principally reflecting movements in petrol prices.

Figure 4 shows how each of the main groups of goods and services contributed to change in the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) 12-month rate between October and November 2018. The corresponding figures for the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) can be found in column F of Table 26 in the Consumer price inflation dataset.

The largest downward contribution to change in the CPIH 12-month rate came from recreation and culture, where prices rose by 0.1% between October and November 2018, compared with a 0.7% rise between the same two months a year earlier. The main downward effects came from games, toys and hobbies (particularly computer games including downloads), and cultural services (principally admission fees to live music events). Price movements for both computer games and live music events can often be relatively large depending on the composition of bestseller charts and the bands that are touring at the time of price collection. Within recreation and culture, these downward effects were partially offset by a small upward contribution from data processing equipment, with the price of computer peripherals rising this year but falling a year ago.

There was also a large downward effect from transport, principally due to price movements of motor fuels. Petrol prices fell by 2.6 pence per litre between October and November 2018, compared with a rise of 1.8 pence per litre between October and November 2017. This was partially offset by an upward contribution from sea fares, which rose this year but fell a year ago.

Food and non-alcoholic beverages had a smaller downward effect. Prices in this category remain little changed since the start of 2018 and rose by 0.1% between October and November 2018, compared with a rise of 0.5% between the same two months a year ago. The main effect came from fruit, where prices rose between October and November this year but by less than a year ago.

The largest upward contribution to change in the 12-month rate came from alcoholic beverages and tobacco, with prices rising between October and November this year compared with a fall between the same two months a year ago. The effect came almost entirely from tobacco, where prices rose this year reflecting an increase in duty. Last year, a similar increase in duty entered the index one month later, in December 2017.

A second, smaller upward contribution came from miscellaneous goods and services, with prices rising by 0.2% between October and November this year compared with a fall of 0.1% a year ago. The effect came principally from appliances and products for personal care, for example, moisturising cream and liquid soap.

Figure 5 shows the contribution of owner occupiers’ housing costs (OOH) and Council Tax to the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) inflation rate in the context of wider housing-related costs. The contribution from OOH rose slightly between October and November 2018 but has fallen back from a high in October 2016.

Utility bills made a negative contribution during 2015 and 2016 but more recent rises, most notably in electricity prices, have seen its contribution turn positive through 2017 into 2018. Further electricity and gas price rises in September and October this year have increased their contribution, so that since September 2018, the electricity, gas and other fuels category has been the largest contributor to the CPIH 12-month rate from housing and household services. Increases in Council Tax starting in 2016 mean that its contribution has also increased over recent years.

The reduction in the contribution from rents is likely to be a result of a policy to reduce social housing rent starting from April 2016, whilst other housing costs (namely regular maintenance and repair, along with water and sewerage services) tend to make a very small contribution to the 12-month rate.

Data relating to the Retail Prices Index (RPI) are available in the accompanying dataset and time series. To view the all-items RPI and 12-month inflation rate and an at-a-glance comparison with other measures, please see the time series section of the inflation and price indices area of our website.

Other important measures of inflation and prices include Producer price indices, the House Price Index and the Index of Private Housing Rental Prices (IPHRP). Prices economic commentary presents further analysis of these in addition to the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH).

The individual price quotes (for locally-collected items only) and item indices that underpin the consumer price inflation statistics are available.

The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) provides a comparable measure of inflation for each member state of the EU. The UK HICP is identical to the UK Consumer Prices Index (CPI). Further information is available on the Eurostat website.

The Consumer price inflation Quality and Methodology Information report contains important information on:

• the strengths and limitations of the data and how it compares with related data

• users and uses of the data

• how the output was created

• the quality of the output including the accuracy of the data

The Consumer Price Indices Technical Manual covers the concepts and methodologies underpinning the indices in more detail.

The CPIH Compendium provides a comprehensive source of information on the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH), with a focus on the approach to measuring owner occupiers’ housing costs (OOH).

The Consumer price inflation basket of goods and services: 2018 article details the annual review process for the items making up the inflation basket used to calculate the UK consumer price inflation indices and describes the changes in the latest year.

Consumer price inflation, updating weights: 2018 describes the latest changes to the relative weights of items in the inflation basket to ensure they remain representative of current consumer spending patterns.