GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: July to September 2015

• UK GDP in volume terms was estimated to have increased by 0.4% between Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2015 and Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2015, revised down 0.1 percentage points from the second estimate of GDP published 27 November 2015

• Between 2013 and 2014, GDP in volume terms increased by 2.9%, unrevised from the previous estimate and remains in line with the pre-downturn (1997 to 2007) annual average of 3.0%. Between Quarter 3 2014 and Quarter 3 2015, GDP in volume terms increased by 2.1%, revised down 0.2 percentage points from the previously published estimate

• Estimates in this bulletin incorporate more robust annual data for 2014 and also new data for the most recent quarters. Comprehensive briefing on revisions and the latest estimates for 2014 and 2015 can be found in ‘Briefing on revisions to GDP’ in the ‘Quarterly revisions’ section of this bulletin

• GDP in current prices increased by 0.7% between Quarter 2 2015 and Quarter 3 2015

• GDP per head in volume terms was estimated to have increased by 0.3% between Quarter 2 2015 and Quarter 3 2015. Between 2013 and 2014, GDP per head increased by 2.1%

• The households and non-profit institutions serving households saving ratio was estimated to be 4.4% in Quarter 3 2015 compared with 4.9% in Quarter 2 2015. In 2014, the saving ratio was estimated to be 5.4%

• Real household disposable income increased by 0.5% between Quarter 2 2015 and Quarter 3 2015

GDP growth is the main indicator of economic performance. There are 3 approaches used to measure GDP.

Gross value added (GVA) is the sum of goods and services produced within the economy less the value of goods and services used up in the production process (intermediate consumption). The output approach measures GVA at a detailed industry level before aggregating to produce an estimate for the whole economy. GDP (as measured by the output approach) can then be calculated by adding taxes and subtracting subsidies (both only available at whole economy level) to this estimate of total GVA (more information on creating the preliminary estimate of GDP is available on our methods and sources page).

The income approach measures income generated by production in the form of gross operating surplus (profits), compensation of employees (income from employment) and mixed income (self-employment income) for the whole economy.

The expenditure approach is the sum of all final expenditures within the economy, that is, all expenditure on goods and services that are not used up or transformed in the production process, that is, final consumption (not intermediate) for the whole economy.

The third estimate of GDP is based on revised output data, together with updated data from expenditure and income components. In the Quarterly National Accounts, the output GVA and GDP estimates are balanced with the equivalent income and expenditure approaches to produce headline estimates of GVA and GDP. Further information on all 3 approaches to measuring GDP can be found in the Short Guide to National Accounts (316.8 Kb Pdf) .

All data in this bulletin are seasonally adjusted estimates and have had the effect of price changes removed (in other words, the data are deflated), with the exception of income data which are only available in current prices.

Growth for GDP and its components is given between different periods. Latest year-on-previous-year gives the annual growth between one calendar year and the previous. Latest quarter-on-previous-quarter growth gives growth between one quarter and the quarter immediately before it. Latest quarter-on-corresponding-quarter-of-previous-year shows the growth between one quarter and the same quarter a year ago.

In line with national accounts revisions policy, the earliest period open for revision in this release is Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2014.

The Quarterly National Accounts are typically published around 90 days after the end of the quarter. At this stage the data content of this estimate from the output measure of GDP has risen to around 91% of the total required for the final output based estimate. There is also around 90% data content available to produce estimates of GDP from the expenditure approach and around 70% data content from the income approach.

Revisions are an inevitable consequence of the trade-off between timeliness and accuracy. The estimate is subject to revisions as more data become available, but between the preliminary and third estimates of GDP, revisions are typically small (around 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points), with the frequency of upward and downward revisions broadly equal.

All estimates, by definition, are subject to statistical uncertainty and for many well-established statistics we measure and publish the sampling error and non-sampling error associated with the estimate, using this as an indicator of accuracy. Since sampling is typically done to determine the characteristics of a whole population, the difference between the sample and population values is considered a sampling error. Non-sampling errors are a result of deviations from the true value that are not a function of the sample chosen, including various systematic errors and any other errors that are not due to sampling. The estimate of GDP, however, is currently constructed from a wide variety of data sources, some of which are not based on random samples or do not have published sampling and non-sampling errors available and as such it is very difficult to measure both error aspects and their impact on GDP. While development work continues in this area, like all other G7 national statistical institutes, we don't publish a measure of the sampling error/non-sampling error associated with GDP.

As seen in Figure 1, GDP in the UK grew steadily during the 2000s until a financial market shock affected UK and global economic growth in 2008 and 2009. Economic growth resumed towards the end of 2009, but generally at a slower rate than the period prior to 2008. From the peak in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2008 to the trough in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2009, GDP decreased by 6.1%.

This can be compared with previous economic downturns in the early 1980s and early 1990s, which saw lower levels of impact on GDP. In the early 1990s downturn, GDP decreased by 2.2% from the peak in Quarter 2 1990 to the trough in Quarter 3 1991. In the early 1980s downturn, GDP decreased by 5.6% from the peak in Quarter 2 1979 to the trough in Quarter 1 1981.

From Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2009, growth continued to be erratic, particularly between 2010 and 2012 with 2 quarters recording negative growth. This 2-year period coincided with special events (for example severe winter weather in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2010 and the Diamond Jubilee in Quarter 2 2012) that are likely to have affected growth both adversely and positively. Since 2013, GDP has grown steadily, with the economy exceeding pre-downturn peak levels in Quarter 2 2013.

Quarter 3 2015 has shown continued strength with GDP growing by 0.4% compared with the previous quarter; by 2.1% between Quarter 3 2014 and Quarter 3 2015, and by 2.9% between 2013 and 2014. GDP has now increased for 11 consecutive quarters, breaking a pattern of slow and erratic growth from 2009.

Annex A contains output component growth rates (31 Kb Excel sheet) back to Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2014.

Three of the 4 main output industrial groupings within GDP showed increases in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2015 compared with Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2015, with only construction falling in this period. Within production, 3 of the 4 components increased with only 1 decrease, which still resulted in overall positive growth in total production. All components within the service industries showed increases.

Production output increased by 0.2% in Quarter 3 2015 compared with Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2015, unrevised from the previously published estimate. Within the production sub-industries, output from mining and quarrying, including oil and gas extraction, increased by 2.6%; manufacturing (the largest component of production) decreased by 0.4% (Figure 2), and electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply industries increased by 1.0%. Water supply and sewerage increased by 0.3%.

When comparing Quarter 3 2015 with Quarter 3 2014, production output increased by 1.4%, revised up 0.2 percentage points from the previously published estimate. Mining and quarrying, including oil and gas extraction, increased by 12.2%, while water supply and sewerage increased by 5.9%. Manufacturing fell by 0.9% between these periods while the electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply industries decreased by 0.5%.

Construction output decreased by 1.9% in Quarter 3 2015, revised up 0.3 percentage points from the previously published estimate. Construction output increased by 1.0% between Quarter 3 2014 and Quarter 3 2015, revised up 1.1 percentage points from the previously published estimate.

The service industries increased by 0.6% in Quarter 3 2015 (Figure 3), revised down 0.1 percentage points from the previous estimate, marking the eleventh consecutive quarter of positive growth. This follows a 0.5% increase in Quarter 2 2015.

Output of the distribution, hotels and restaurants industries increased by 0.9% in Quarter 3 2015, following a 1.0% increase in Quarter 2 2015. The increase in the latest quarter was largely due to retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles.

Output of the transport, storage and communication industries increased by 1.0% in Quarter 3 2015, following a 1.1% increase in Quarter 2 2015. The largest contributor to the increase was computer programming, consultancy and related activities.

Business services and finance industries’ output increased by 0.6% in Quarter 3 2015, following a 0.5% increase in Quarter 2 2015. The largest contributors to the increase were services to buildings and landscape activities and real estate activities.

Output of government and other services increased by 0.2% in Quarter 3 2015, after increasing by 0.1% in Quarter 2 2015. In the latest quarter the largest upward contribution came from human health activities.

Further detail on the service industries’ lower level components can be found in the Index of Services statistical bulletin published on 23 December 2015.

Gross value added (GVA) excluding oil and gas extraction increased by 0.4% in Quarter 3 2015 following a 0.4% increase in Quarter 2 2015.

Figure 4 shows the path of GDP and its headline industries (this excludes agriculture, and includes manufacturing which is a sub-component of production) relative to their level of output achieved in Quarter 1 2008.

In the decade prior to the downturn, the service industries grew steadily, while production output was broadly flat over the same period. Construction activity grew strongly in the early part of the decade, and although there was a temporary decline in the mid-2000s - this was reversed by the end of 2007.

Industries have shown differing trends following the recent economic downturn. The construction, manufacturing, and production industries were more acutely affected by the deterioration in economic conditions, with output falling from peak to trough by 17.1%, 12.3% and 10.6% respectively. In contrast, output in the services industry only fell by 4.1% from its peak to trough.

Production activity began to grow again in 2010, and the manufacturing and the construction industries showed particular strength, although neither industry sustained this growth. Production output fell in both 2011 and 2012, falling below levels seen at the depth of the downturn in 2009. Construction output also fell sharply in 2012, with output nearly returning to its 2009 trough levels after further contraction in Quarter 1 2013. Construction output improved throughout 2014. Although there has been widespread growth across all major components of GDP since the start of 2013, the service industry remains the largest and steadiest contributor to overall economic growth (Annex A), and is the only headline industry in which output has exceeded pre-downturn levels.

Figure 5 shows the average compound quarterly growth rate experienced over the 5 years prior to the economic downturn in 2008 to 2009, the average growth rate experienced between Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2009 and Quarter 2 2014 (5 years following the downturn), and the current quarterly growth rate observed in the most recent period (Quarter 3 2015). Compound average growth is the rate at which a series would have increased or decreased if it had grown or fallen at a steady rate over a number of periods. This allows the composition of growth in the recent economic recovery to be compared to the long run average.

The UK experienced slightly slower average compound GDP growth in the 5 years following the economic downturn compared with the 5 years prior; this is also true of the services industry. Figure 5 shows that in Quarter 3 2015 only the production industries outperformed the post-downturn average rate of growth, but manufacturing and construction have been relatively weak falling by 0.4% and 1.9% respectively. In Quarter 3 2015 the transport, storage and communication industries have shown particular strength when compared to services 5 year average, prior and post downturn.

It should be noted that the current quarterly growth rate (the third column for each industry section in Figure 5), is based on only 1 data point. Consequently users should use caution when making direct comparisons with the long run averages.

Annex B contains expenditure component growth rates (27 Kb Excel sheet) back to Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2014.

More information on the revisions to the expenditure components within this section can be found in "Briefing on revisions to GDP" in the "Quarterly revisions" section of this bulletin.

Gross domestic expenditure (the sum of all expenditure by UK residents on goods and services that are not used up or transformed in a productive process) increased by 1.4% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2015. Annually, between 2013 and 2014 gross domestic expenditure increased by 3.2%.

Household final consumption expenditure (HHFCE) increased by 0.9% in Quarter 3 2015, and has increased for 9 consecutive quarters (Figure 6). The largest contribution to the increase in household final consumption expenditure in Quarter 3 2015 came from transport. When compared with the same quarter a year ago, HHFCE has been rising each quarter since Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2011, and was 3.0% higher in Quarter 3 2015 than in the same period a year ago. Between 2013 and 2014, HHFCE increased by 2.6%.

Note that in the quarters of 2013 only, “National” HHFCE chained volume measure data is not the sum of its components.

Figure 7 shows the contribution of different categories of goods and services to the growth in UK household domestic expenditure, quarter-on-corresponding-quarter-of-previous-year. The positive consumption growth since Quarter 4 2011 is shown to have been broad-based across both goods and services. While durable and semi durable goods have been the predominant driver of growth in recent periods, there has also been a resumption to growth of non durables goods (which include items which can only be consumed or used once; food products are a good example of these) in the last 3 quarters. This component of expenditure showed positive growth in Quarter 2 and Quarter 3 of 2015 increasing by 0.3% and 0.5% respectively.

Government final consumption expenditure increased by 0.6% in Quarter 3 2015, following a 1.0% increase in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2015. Between Quarter 3 2014 and Quarter 3 2015, government final consumption expenditure increased by 1.8%. Between 2013 and 2014, government final consumption expenditure increased by 2.5%.

Non-profit institutions serving households’ (NPISH) final consumption expenditure fell by 1.7% in Quarter 3 2015, following a 2.6% rise in Quarter 2 2015. Between Quarter 3 2014 and Quarter 3 2015, NPISH final consumption expenditure increased by 0.4%. Annually, NPISH final consumption expenditure increased by 0.9% between 2013 and 2014.

In Quarter 3 2015, gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) was estimated to have increased by 0.7% (Figure 8). Between Quarter 3 2014 and Quarter 3 2015, GFCF increased by 3.4%. GFCF increased by 7.3% between 2013 and 2014. More detail on GFCF, including a breakdown of the GFCF components, can be found in the Business Investment statistical bulletin published on 23 December 2015.

Business investment was estimated to have risen by 2.2% in Quarter 3 2015 and by 5.8% between Quarter 3 2014 and Quarter 3 2015. Annually, business investment increased by 4.7% between 2013 and 2014.

Including the alignment adjustment, the level of inventories increased by £0.7 billion in Quarter 3 2015, following a fall of £1.5 billion in Quarter 2 2015. Excluding the alignment adjustment, the level of inventories was unchanged (falling by £31 million) in Quarter 3 2015, following no change in Quarter 2 2015 (when it increased by £29 million). More information on the alignment adjustment can be found in the Balancing GDP section within the Background Notes of this release.

The trade balance deficit widened from £9.7 billion in Quarter 2 2015 to £14.1 billion in Quarter 3 2015 (Figure 9). The trade position reflects exports minus imports. Following a 2.8% increase in Quarter 2 2015, exports decreased by 0.3% in the latest quarter, while imports increased by 2.7% in Quarter 3 2015 following a 2.2% fall in Quarter 2 2015.

We previously highlighted quality concerns surrounding the volume estimates of trade in goods; as planned the volume data has been revised from Quarter 1 2014. This has introduced large revisions to exports and imports in volume terms, especially for Quarter 1 2015 and Quarter 2 2015, although the trade story has not changed; there is still a narrowing of the trade in goods deficit in Quarter 2 2015. This narrowing now reflects both a rise in exports and a decrease in imports, whereas previously it was attributed to a fall in imports. The latest estimates are more in line with the current price movements.

Exports of goods fell by 2.5% in Quarter 3 2015, due mainly to an increase in chemicals, specifically organic chemicals and in fuel, specifically oil. Exports of services increased by 3.0% in Quarter 3 2015, due to an increase in insurance and other business services. In Quarter 3 2015 imports of goods increased by 3.7%, due to increases in unspecified goods and fuels. Imports of services fell by 0.6% in Quarter 3 2015, due to an increase in transport services.

Between 2013 and 2014, exports increased by 1.2%, with increases in exports of services and no change in exports of goods, while imports increased by 2.4%; reflecting an increase in imports of goods (partially offset by a fall in imports of services).

Figure 10 shows a breakdown of the trade components and their contribution to GDP growth from Quarter 1 2008 to Quarter 3 2015. The series indicates that in the most recent quarter the UK trade balance has made a slight negative contribution to GDP growth, quarter on same quarter of the previous year. Export of goods rose by 8.0% when comparing Quarter 3 2014 with Quarter 3 2015, contributing 1.3 percentage points to GDP growth, with this being largely offset by the import of goods, which increased by 6.6% in the same period, resulting in a negative 1.6 percentage points contribution to GDP growth.

Figure 11 shows the quarterly contribution of the expenditure components to the growth of GDP in chained volume measures. For Quarter 3 2015, the largest positive contribution to GDP came from gross capital formation, which contributed 0.8 percentage points. Household final consumption expenditure contributed 0.6 percentage points to GDP; general government final consumption expenditure contributed 0.1 percentage points. There were negative contributions to GDP of 0.1 percentage points from NPISH and from net trade, which contributed a negative 1.0 percentage points.

Annex D contains implied deflator component growth rates (33 Kb Excel sheet) back to Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2014.

The GDP implied deflator at market prices for Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2015 is 0.1% above the same quarter of 2014 (Figure 12). The GDP implied deflator is calculated by dividing current price (nominal) GDP by chained volume (real) GDP and multiplying by 100 to convert to an index. It is not used in the calculation of GDP; the deflators for expenditure components, which are the basis for the implied GDP deflator, are used to calculate nominal GDP, not real GDP.

Annex C contains income component growth rates (31 Kb Excel sheet) back to Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2014.

More information on the revisions to the income components within this section can be found in "Briefing on revisions to GDP" in the "Quarterly revisions" section of this bulletin.

GDP at current market prices increased by 0.7% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2015, following a 0.8% increase in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2015. GDP at current market prices increased by 2.1% when compared with Quarter 3 2014. In 2014, GDP at current market prices increased by 4.7%.

Compensation of employees – which includes both wages and salaries, and pension contributions, increased by 0.6% in Quarter 3 2015, following an increase of 1.0% in Quarter 2 2015 (Figure 13). Between Quarter 3 2014 and Quarter 3 2015, compensation of employees increased by 3.8% and increased by 1.8% between 2013 and 2014.

The gross operating surplus of corporations (effectively the profits of companies operating within the UK), including the alignment adjustment, increased by 2.4% in Quarter 3 2015 compared with the previous quarter; this follows a fall of 0.8% in Quarter 2 2015 (Figure 14). Between 2013 and 2014 the gross operating surplus of corporations increased by 7.5%. More information on the alignment adjustment can be found in the Balancing GDP section within the Background Notes of this release.

Taxes less subsidies on products and production fell by 0.1% in Quarter 3 2015, following an increase of 3.0% in Quarter 2 2015. Between 2013 and 2014 taxes less subsidies on products and production increased by 4.9%.

Figure 15 shows the contribution made by income components to current price GDP. In Quarter 3 2015, there were positive contributions to GDP from gross operating surplus of corporations which contributed 0.5 percentage points, compensation of employees which contributed 0.3 percentage points and other income which contributed 0.1 percentage points. Taxes on products and production less subsidies made a flat contribution to GDP in the latest quarter.

In Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2015, GDP per head increased by 0.3% compared with Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2015, unrevised from the previously published estimate. GDP per head is now 0.3% above its pre-downturn peak in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2008, having surpassed it in Quarter 2 2015, one quarter later than previously estimated. Headline GDP exceeded the level of its pre-downturn peak in Quarter 2 2013 and is now 6.1% above its pre-downturn peak (Figure 16).

Between Quarter 3 2014 and Quarter 3 2015, GDP per head increased by 1.3%, revised down 0.4 percentage points from the previously published estimate. Between 2013 and 2014, GDP per head increased by 2.1%, revised down 0.1 percentage points from the previously published estimate.

GDP per head is calculated by dividing GDP in chained volume measures by the latest population estimates and projections. The population estimates used in this release are those published on 25 June 2015 and the population projections used are those published 29 October 2015.

Summary

Annually for 2014, the central government, local government, financial corporations and the households and non-profit institutions serving households sectors were net borrowers. Public corporations, private non-financial corporations and the rest of the world sectors were net lenders.

In 2015 Quarter 3 (July to Sept), the central government, public corporations and households and non-profit institutions serving households sectors were net borrowers. The local government, financial corporations, private non-financial corporations and rest of the world sectors were net lenders (Figure 17).

Compared with the previous year all sectors remain unchanged.

Compared with the previous quarter, there has been a switch to net lending in the local government and financial corporation’s sector. All other sectors remain unchanged.

Table I has further detail.

Saving ratio:

Annually for 2014 the saving ratio was 5.4%, compared with 6.3% in 2013.

The saving ratio in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2015 was 4.4%, compared with 4.9% in the previous quarter (Figure 18).

The decrease in the saving ratio in 2014 reflects rises in consumption expenditure and taxes on income and wealth, which are partially offset by rises in wages and salaries and gross operating surplus and mixed income.

This fall in the latest quarter reflects a rise in final consumption expenditure and taxes on income and wealth partially offset by increased wages and salaries. Figure 19 shows the main components contributing to the quarterly saving ratio movement.

What is the saving ratio?

The saving ratio estimates the amount of money households and NPISH have available to save (known as gross saving) as a percentage of their total disposable income (known as total available resources). Both can be found in table J3 of this release.

Gross saving estimates the difference between households’ and NPISH total available resources (mainly wages received, revenue of the self-employed, social benefits and net income such as interest on savings and dividends from shares, but excluding taxes on income and wealth) and their current consumption (expenditure on goods and services).

All of the components that make up gross saving and total available resources, and in fact all sector accounts data apart from real household disposable income (RHDI), are estimated in current prices (CP). These are sometimes known as nominal prices, meaning that they include the effects of price changes.

The saving ratio is published in both non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) and seasonally adjusted (SA) formats with the latter removing seasonal effects to allow comparisons over time. However, the saving ratio can be volatile and is sensitive to even relatively small movements to its components, particularly on a quarterly basis. This is because saving is a small difference between 2 numbers. It is therefore often revised at successive publications when new or updated data are included.

For the year 2014, real household and NPISH disposable income increased by 0.6% following a fall of 0.7% in 2013. This reflects an increase of 2.3% in nominal gross disposable income, offset by a 1.6% rise in the household and NPISH final consumption deflator. This increase in nominal gross disposable income was predominantly due to a rise in wages and salaries together with increased gross operating surplus and mixed income, partially offset by increased taxes on income and wealth.

The level of real household and NPISH disposable income increased by 0.5% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2015, following an increase of 1.9% in the previous quarter (Figure 20).

The rise in the latest quarter reflects a 0.7% rise in the nominal gross disposable income with a 0.2% increase in the household and NPISH final consumption deflator. The rise in nominal gross disposable income was due to a rise in wages and salaries partially offset by rises in taxes on income and wealth.

Figure 21 shows the main components contributing to the quarterly movement of gross disposable income.

What is real household and NPISH disposable income?

There are 2 measures of household and NPISH income, in real terms or in current prices (or nominal as it is often called), and both of these time series can be found in table J2 of this release.

Gross household and NPISH disposable income (GDI) is the estimate of the total amount of money from income that households and NPISH have available from wages received, revenue of the self-employed, social benefits and net income (such as interest on savings and dividends from shares) less taxes on income and wealth. All the components that make up GDI are estimated in current prices.

However, by adjusting GDI to remove the effects of inflation, we are able to estimate another useful measure of disposable income called real disposable income. This is a measure of real purchasing power of household and NPISH incomes, in terms of the physical quantity of goods and services they would be able to purchase. We use the household and NPISH expenditure deflator (which can be found in table J2 of this release) to remove the effects of price inflation.

For the year 2014, net lending was £28.6 billion following net lending of £23.8 billion in 2013. This increase was due to a rise in gross operating surplus partially offset by a fall in net property income and a rise in gross capital formation.

Net lending of private non-financial corporations’ was £12.4 billion in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2015, following net lending of £6.2 billion in the previous quarter. This increase in net lending in the latest quarter was due to a rise in gross operating surplus and net property income.

The estimates quoted in this international comparison section are the latest available estimates published by the respective bodies (referenced) at the time of preparation of this statistical bulletin and may subsequently have been revised.

All areas included within our international comparison, saw positive growth when comparing Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2015 with Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2015 (Figure 22). The European Union (EU28) grew by 0.4% in the third quarter of 2015, marking 10 consecutive quarters of positive growth (Table 2). In the same period, the eurozone (EA19) also expanded by 0.3%. When comparing Quarter 3 2014 with Quarter 3 2015, EA19 grew by 1.6 % whilst the EU28 expanded by 1.9% (Figure 23).

Germany saw its GDP increase by 0.3% between Quarter 2 2015 and Quarter 3 2015, following a 0.4% increase in the previous quarter. GDP for France increased by 0.3% in the same period, following no growth in Quarter 2 2015.

In the third quarter of 2015 the USA’s economy increased by 0.5%. Between Quarter 3 2014 and Quarter 3 2015, GDP for the USA increased by 2.1%. GDP for Japan increased by 0.3% in Quarter 3 2015, following a decrease of 0.1% in the previous quarter, although between Quarter 3 2014 and Quarter 3 2015, Japan’s economy grew by 1.7%.

GDP for the Group of Seven (G7) countries increased by 0.4% in Quarter 3 2015, following a 0.6% increase in the previous quarter. When comparing Quarter 3 2014 with Quarter 3 2015, G7 GDP increased by 1.9% and is now 6.1% above its pre-recession peak in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2008.

Figure 24 shows GDP for the UK, EU, USA and Japan indexed to Quarter 1 2008 (the pre-downturn peak in the UK) to allow comparison of each since that period.

More detailed information on these estimates can be found on the Eurostat website. Information on the estimates for the USA can be found on the Bureau of Economic Analysis website; information on the estimates for Japan can be found on the Japanese Cabinet Office website while information for the G7 countries can be found on the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s website.

GDP and components, previously published on 27 November 2015

Figure 25 shows quarterly revisions between latest and previously published estimates of GDP. Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2014 is the earliest period open for revision in this release.

Briefing on revisions to GDP

The 2014 picture

Annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in volume terms was estimated to have increased by 2.9% in 2014 compared with 2013, unrevised from the previously published estimate. However there are small revisions to GDP growth rates in Quarter 2 (Apr to June), Quarter 3 (July to Sept) and Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2014. There are also revisions to the more detailed components of GDP which are mainly due to, as planned, incorporating more robust annual data into the estimates. These are discussed in detail in the following sections.

Although the annual GDP growth rate is unrevised, the latest estimates present a more diverged picture between the different measurement approaches for GDP; expenditure, income, and output (Table L details the annual growth rates for the 3 separate approaches).

Since 2014 was first published we have received little new data for the output measure apart from some late survey returns but, in the last few months, the primary source of data information has been for the expenditure measure (further detail of the data sources can be found in ‘Impact of the 2014 annual benchmarks‘ section). Although the annual expenditure measure hasn’t been revised much, the new data sources are likely to make this estimate a more reliable annual estimate than output or Income until the ‘final’ data for all 3 approaches is received for Supply-Use balancing.

Impact of the 2014 annual benchmarks

This release includes the processing and GDP balancing of the following annual benchmarks:

1. local Government Final Outturn data for England and Wales for the financial year 2014/15

2. Annual International Trade in Services Survey

3. Financial Inquiries Survey

4. Regulatory and administrative data for insurance corporations and pension funds

5. Healthcare within Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GGFCE) volume measure

Unfortunately, it has not been possible to include the Foreign Direct Investment 2014 annual benchmark within the Sector and Financial Accounts and Balance of Payments. This was first announced in the Foreign Direct Investment release.

Also please note the International Trade in Services benchmark did not feed in to the UK Trade figures published on 10 December and therefore Quarterly National Accounts Quarter 3 2015 is the first opportunity to see the impact of the new data on UK trade.

The impact from the annual benchmarks on the 2014 dataset are presented for each of the affected components of output, expenditure, and income below.

Annual benchmark data changes to output components

The output measure of GDP is impacted by incorporating new regulators and administrative data for insurance corporations and pensions, as well new healthcare data. In addition to the usual factors, revisions to construction in this round arise from an improved approach to the treatment of outliers and a review of seasonal adjustment factors. The revisions to the output measure of GDP and its components are shown in Table 3.

The construction sector made a strong negative contribution to the revision of the output measure of GDP in Quarter 2 2014 and a more limited positive contribution to the revisions in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2014 and Quarter 3 2014. More information on this methodological change can be found in Output in the Construction Industry - October 2015 and New Orders Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2015.

Within the services sector, the revision to healthcare data has had a particularly strong upward impact in Quarter 1 2014. The revision from benchmarking to the new regulators and administrative data for insurance corporations and pensions, whilst having its most significant impact in Quarter 4 2014, did not lead to a change to the revision contribution of the services sector to 1 decimal place (dp). In implementing these benchmarks the revised quarterly path needs to be constrained to the new annual level; however, the impact of the revised annual estimate does not have to be equally apportioned across the 4 quarters as statistical consideration has to be given to the pre-existing quarterly path and the impact of seasonal adjustment.

Annual benchmark data changes to expenditure components

Trade in services (TiS): Revisions to 2014 are mainly due to new, more robust (benchmark), data from the annual International Trade in Services Survey (ITIS) replacing earlier estimates from the smaller quarterly ITIS surveys. Additionally new annual Financial Inquiries data and new regulatory data have revised insurance services. Annual estimates for both exports and imports, chained volume measures, have been revised up in 2014; exports by £0.2 billion and imports by £0.5 billion. Within exports, upward revisions from new ITIS estimates have been offset by downwards revisions from the new annual data. Following on from this, the revised quarterly path needs to be constrained to the new annual level. The impact of the revised annual estimate does not have to be equally apportioned across the 4 quarters as statistical consideration has to be given to the pre-existing quarterly path and the impact of seasonal adjustment. This is why, although the overall annual revision may be upwards, there can still be downwards revisions to the quarterly growth rates.

For the quarterly estimates, revisions to both exports and imports are negative in Quarter 1 and Quarter 2 and positive in Quarter 3 and Quarter 4. A summary of the revisions is presented in Table 4.

General Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GGFCE): Within the GGFCE composition, the Local Government (LG) upward revisions to current price data between Quarter 2 2014 and Quarter 1 2015 are largely driven by incorporating Local Government Final Outturn data for England and for Wales for the financial year 2014/15, replacing earlier forecasts based on budget data. The impact of incorporating these data differs across the Classification of Functions of Government (COFOG) categories.

For the LG and Central Government (CG) dataset, this is the first time a benchmark has been applied to the 2014 healthcare volume measure. A summary of the revisions to GGFCE and components is presented in Table 5.

Household Final Consumption Expenditure (HHFCE): Revisions to 2014 data are mainly due to new data from the Living Costs and Food (LCF) Survey, the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC), and the International Passenger Survey (IPS). New regulatory and administrative data for insurance corporations and pension funds is also a contributing factor to the revisions presented in Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose (COICOP) 12 Miscellaneous category. Revisions to this COICOP are driven by 12.5 Insurance, mainly in 12.5.1 Life Insurance, and 12.6.2 Financial Services Other than FISIM. A summary of revisions to HHFCE and the contribution to revisions from the Miscellaneous category are presented in Table 6:

Annual benchmark data changes to income components

Financial Corporations (FinCos): Revisions to 2014 data are mainly due to new data from the annual Financial Inquiries (FI) Survey replacing earlier estimates from the smaller quarterly financial surveys, with the headline FinCos series being revised down by £2.1 billion in 2014. As noted in the earlier briefing on TiS, the revised quarterly path needs to be constrained to the new annual level. The impact of the revised annual estimate does not have to be equally apportioned across the 4 quarters as statistical consideration has to be given to the pre-existing quarterly path and the impact of seasonal adjustment. These new data were the main reason for the negative revision in Quarter 4 2014 (Table 7).

The driver of the downward revisions to Quarter 1 2014, Quarter 2 2014 and Quarter 4 2014 is profits, which is being driven by data revisions in life insurance and other financial intermediaries. In both instances, this is due to the receipt of the new annual Financial Inquiries data for 2014.

Compensation of Employees (CoE): Revisions to CoE (D.1) were downward in all quarters with an overall annual downward revision of £4.3 billion to 2014. For all quarters of 2014 revisions were primarily due to downward revisions to adjusted employers social contributions (D.12). The largest contributor to the D.12 downward revisions was D.1211 Funded data which are sourced from the regulatory and administrative data for insurance corporations and pension funds. A summary of the revisions to CoE is presented in Table 8.

The latest quarterly headline picture

Table 9 shows quarterly revisions between latest and previously published estimates of GDP. The periods open for revision in this release are Quarter 1 2014 onwards. Growth rates and revisions have, as usual, been presented to 1dp. Users may, however, find it useful to note that some revisions have just crossed the 1dp threshold. For example, the Q2 2015 revision to 1dp presents a 0.2 percentage point downward revision which is 0.11 percentage points to 2dp.

In addition to the annual benchmarks which, as discussed above, contribute to the quarterly revisions there are also revisions in this release due to the replacement of forecasts with actual survey or external source data and new seasonally adjustment factors. For a fuller picture, the revisions to contributions to GDP growth are presented in Table 10.

Revisions to headline GDP quarter-on-quarter growth, chained volume measures

GDP for Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2014 was unrevised at 0.6%. The downward revision to HHFCE and Gross Capital Formation were offset by upward revision contributions from Net trade and GGFCE.

GDP for Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2014 has been revised down by 0.1 percentage points to 0.8%. Within the expenditure components the largest contributor to the downward revision was Net Trade although this was almost entirely offset by an upward revision contribution from Gross Capital Formation. Within the income components, Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations was the largest contributor to the revision with Financial Corporations accounting heavily for this downward revision (see above for impact of annual benchmarks).

GDP for Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2014 was revised up by 0.1 percentage points to 0.7%. Revisions to the expenditure components were broad-based with a notable positive contribution from Net Trade. Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations was again the largest contributor to the revisions with Financial Corporations accounting heavily for this upward revision – which is reflected in the annual benchmark impact discussed earlier.

GDP for Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2014 has been revised down by 0.1 percentage points to 0.7% with income components contributing most to the revision. Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations was the largest contributor to the revision with Financial Corporations accounting heavily for this downward revision.

GDP for Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2015 was unrevised at 0.4%.

GDP for Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2015 has been revised down by 0.2 percentage points to 0.5% with expenditure components contributing most to the revision. Gross Capital Formation was the largest contributor to the revision with Changes in Inventories accounting heavily for this downward revision.

In Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2015 the data information content for the output approach is more complete than the expenditure, and income approaches and therefore the expenditure and income growth rates are aligned to the output measure – with the quarterly imbalance being absorbed in the alignment adjustments (the difference between output and expenditure, and output and income on a quarterly basis). Therefore the briefing on this quarter focuses on the output approach.

The revisions to contributions to GDP Quarter 3 2015 growth for the output components are presented in Table 11.

GDP for Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2015 has been revised down by 0.1 percentage points to 0.4%. This is due to downward revisions for the services industries within the output approach to measuring GDP from the business services and finance industries – which was revised down 0.4 percentage points to 0.6%. The largest contributors to the revision were; financial services, insurance, and pensions fund industries (64-66). These revisions were mainly due to real data replacing forecasts and downward revisions to insurance survey data.

Table 12 shows revisions to the quarter–on-same-quarter a year ago growth for GDP.

The revisions for the quarter-on-same-quarter a year ago growths for GDP in 2015 are due to revisions in both 2015 and 2014, while the revisions for the quarter-on-same-quarter a year ago growths for GDP in 2014 are due to revisions in 2014, as 2013 has been unrevised in this release. The revisions to contributions to GDP growth are presented in Table 13.

The quarter-on-same-quarter a year ago revisions, to the chained volume measure, are present in all quarters expect Quarter 1 2014. Revisions are largest in Quarter 4 2014, Quarter 1 2015 and Quarter 3 2015 – with all being revised down by 0.2 percentage points.

Detailed revisions for the 3 GDP approaches:

• output revisions are shown in Annex E (29.5 Kb Excel sheet)

• expenditure revisions are shown in Annex F (28 Kb Excel sheet)

• income revisions are shown in Annex G (23.5 Kb Excel sheet)

Sector accounts revisions, previously published 30 September 2015

• sector accounts revisions are shown in Annex H (40 Kb Excel sheet)