GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: April to June 2025

• UK gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by an unrevised 0.3% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025, following an unrevised increase of 0.7% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar).
• In line with our National Accounts Revisions Policy, this release contains data that are consistent with the UK National Accounts, the Blue Book 2025, which will be released on 31 October 2025.
• Following the preannounced revisions to growth in 2023, GDP for 2024 as a whole is estimated to have increased by 1.1%, unrevised from the previous estimate.
• However, there have been small revisions to the quarterly path of total real GDP across 2024, with Quarter 1 revised down, and upward revisions in Quarter 2 to Quarter 4.
• In output terms, growth in the latest quarter was driven by increases of 0.4% in services and 1.0% in construction, while the production sector fell by 0.8%.
• Real household disposable income (RHDI) per head increased in the latest quarter by 0.2%, following a fall of 0.9% in Quarter 1 2025.
• The household saving ratio increased in the latest quarter by 0.2 percentage points to 10.7%, driven by a rise in the contribution of non-pension saving.

UK real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have increased by an unrevised 0.3% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025, a slowing following unrevised growth of 0.7% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025 (Figure 1).

Based on our monthly GDP analysis, some activity was brought forward to February and March 2025 ahead of changes to Stamp Duty in April and, to some extent, ahead of announced US tariff changes. There have been small revisions to the quarterly path of total real GDP across 2024, with Quarter 1 revised down, and upward revisions in Quarter 2 to Quarter 4. Growth in Quarter 1 and 2 2025 is unrevised (Figure 1).

Across 2024 as a whole, annual growth is estimated at an unrevised 1.1% increase, where downward revisions to the second half of 2023 and Quarter 1 2024 have offset the upward revisions in Quarter 2 to Quarter 4 2024.

The level of GDP in Quarter 2 2025 compared with Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2023 is now estimated to be 2.9% higher, revised up from the first estimate of 2.6%.

In line with our National Accounts Revisions Policy, this release contains data that are consistent with the UK National Accounts, the Blue Book 2025, which will be released on 31 October 2025.

Our Blue Book 2025: advanced aggregate estimates release showed the preannounced revisions to nominal and real GDP annual and quarterly growth up to Quarter 4 2023. Today’s release now includes revisions to 2024 onwards as a result of the Blue Book 2025 methodological changes, including improved source data and additional updated data, as would happen in all quarterly national accounts releases. This also includes new Value Added Tax (VAT) turnover data for Quarter 4 2024 and Quarter 1 2025.

Based on these new data, we have also reviewed the balancing of the three approaches to measuring GDP from 2024 onwards. In particular, data for Quarter 3 (July to Sept) and Quarter 4 2024 now reflect an average of the three approaches to measuring GDP, whereas these were previously balanced to the output approach, which takes the lead measure in the short run because of the higher data content.

There have also been some revisions to individual components for GDP. For more information, see Section 8: Revisions to GDP. An indicative monthly real GDP path consistent with these quarterly figures can be found in our associated dataset.

Early estimates of GDP are subject to revision (positive or negative). Previous analysis shows that the revision between the first quarterly GDP estimate, and the same quarterly estimate three years later, is on average plus or minus 0.2 percentage points, when more detailed information becomes available through the comprehensive annual supply and use balancing process, as the data content increases. For more information, please refer to our GDP revisions in Blue Book: 2024 article. The GDP growth vintages from 2024 onwards are shown in Table 4. We give more information on uncertainty in Section 12: Data sources and quality.

Real GDP per head is estimated to have grown by an unrevised 0.2% in Quarter 2 2025 and is up by 0.9% compared with the same quarter a year ago. Consistent with the National Accounts Revisions Policy, there have been revisions to GDP and population figures as part of this release. See Section 6: Real GDP and real disposable income per head for more information.

Nominal GDP is estimated to have increased by 1.0% in Quarter 2 2025 (previously estimated at 0.8%), and is now 5.6% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago.

The implied GDP deflator is the broadest measure of inflation in the domestic economy, reflecting changes in the price of all goods and services that make up GDP. The GDP deflator covers the whole of the domestic economy, not just consumer spending. It also reflects the change in the relative price of exports to imports. For more information on the implied GDP deflator, see our Measuring price changes of the UK national accounts: February 2023 article.

Compared with the same quarter a year ago, the GDP implied deflator grew by 4.1% in Quarter 2 2025. Across 2024 and 2025, there have been downward revisions to the GDP implied deflator (Figure 2). These mainly reflect a number of deflator improvements introduced as part of Blue Book 2025, in particular, where we have replaced selected import and export price indices with unit value indices based on HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) data for basic commodities, including natural gas, crude oil, refined fuels and metals.

The three approaches to measuring GDP

As explained in our previous GDP release, UK GDP was previously estimated to have increased by 1.1% in 2024, following growth of 0.4% in 2023. Our Blue Book 2025: advanced aggregate estimates release showed the preannounced revisions to real GDP quarterly growth up to 2023, where annual GDP in 2023 was now estimated to have increased by 0.3%.

Real annual GDP in 2024 is estimated to have increased by 1.1%, unrevised from the previous estimate (Figure 3).

While the three approaches to measuring GDP remain closely aligned compared with the first estimate, there can still be uncertainty at the component level at this stage in the production cycle for 2024 onwards until these data have been confronted through the supply and use tables framework (SUTs). This uncertainty has various reasons and is further discussed in Section 12: Data sources and quality.

Output is estimated to have grown by an unrevised 0.3% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025, a slowing following unrevised growth of 0.7% in the previous quarter.

Based on our monthly GDP analysis, some activity was brought forward to February and March 2025 ahead of changes to Stamp Duty in April and, to some extent, ahead of announced US tariff changes. Overall, in Quarter 2 2025, 15 out of 20 of the subsectors of GDP increased, with the services sector growing by 0.4% and construction output increasing by 1.0%, while production fell by 0.8%.

Services

Services output increased by an unrevised 0.4% in Quarter 2 2025, following unrevised growth of 0.7% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025. Services output is estimated to be 1.6% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago. Non-consumer-facing services (business-facing services) increased by 0.5% in Quarter 2 2025, while consumer-facing services fell by 0.1%.

Figure 4 shows 10 of the 14 services subsectors contributed positively to growth. The largest positive contributor to growth was information and communication, which increased by 2.5%. Within this subsector, the largest contributor was computer programming, consultancy and related activities, which grew by 4.5%.

The second-largest positive contribution to growth was human health and social work activities, which increased by 1.2%. Both market and non-market human health and social work activities grew in the latest quarter. Non-market output had the largest contribution and is discussed further in the expenditure section.

The largest negative contributor to growth in Quarter 2 2025 was wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, which fell by 1.0%. This was mainly because of a decline in wholesale trade, excluding motor vehicles and motorcycles, which fell by 2.4%.

Across 2024 and 2025, the services sector sees revisions for the following reasons:

• Value Added Tax (VAT) data for Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2024 and Quarter 1 2025 have been incorporated for the first time
• late and updated Monthly Business Survey returns, and other source data
• corrected Services Producer Price Indices (SPPIs)
• corrected retail sales seasonal adjustment; this did not change the contribution of this industry to quarterly GDP growth in Quarter 2 2025 but reduced the contribution in Quarter 1 2025 by 0.03 percentage points
• updated seasonal adjustment models
• the industry weights have also been updated and will affect the contribution of each industry to overall services growth; please see our GDP output approach – low level aggregates dataset for the latest weights

Production

The production sector is estimated to have fallen by 0.8% in Quarter 2 2025 (previously estimated as a 0.3% fall), following a 0.6% increase in Quarter 1 2025 (previously a 1.3% increase).

As a result of downward revisions in 2025, production output is now estimated to be 0.4% lower compared with the same quarter a year ago, revised down from the first estimate of 0.3% higher.

The fall in production in Quarter 2 2025 was mainly because of a decline of 7.2% in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply, with declines in both electric power generation, transmission and distribution, and manufacture of gas; distribution of gaseous fuels through mains; steam and aircon supply. Elsewhere, there was no growth in mining and quarrying, and an increase of 1.9% in water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities.

In addition, manufacturing output grew by 0.2% in Quarter 2 2025, following growth of 0.3% in Quarter 1 2025.

There were increases in 4 out of 13 manufacturing subsectors in the latest quarter (Figure 5). The largest positive contributions were from the manufacture of pharmaceuticals, which grew by 6.9%, and the manufacture of electrical equipment, which grew by 4.1%.

Elsewhere, there were broad-based declines in 9 out of the 13 manufacturing subsectors, with 5 of these seeing falls of over 1.0% in the latest quarter.

Across 2024 and 2025, the production sector sees revisions to growth mainly driven by manufacturing. Overall, the revisions to production reflect:

• new VAT turnover data for Quarter 4 2024 and Quarter 1 2025, and revisions to previous quarters
• late and updated Monthly Business Survey returns
• a review of seasonal adjustment models
• other updated source data
• the industry weights have also been updated and will affect the contribution of each industry to overall production growth, please see our GDP output approach – low level aggregates dataset for the latest weights; the largest impact of these changes in weights on production growth comes from mining and quarrying, where the industries’ weight has decreased, while electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply weight has increased

Construction

Construction output is estimated to have grown by 1.0% in Quarter 2 2025 (previously a 1.2% increase) and is 1.9% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago.

New work increased by 0.7% over the period, and repair and maintenance grew by 1.6%. Within new work, the largest positive contributor came from infrastructure new work, which grew by 2.9%. In repair and maintenance (R&M), the largest positive contributor came from private housing R&M, which grew by 4.4%.

The revisions to construction growth across 2024 and 2025 are because of a combination of updated survey returns, revisions to VAT data, and improvements to the repair and maintenance deflator introduced as part of Blue Book 2025.

Expenditure is estimated to have grown by an unrevised 0.3% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025, which was mainly driven by increases in government consumption and gross fixed capital (Figure 6).

The previous and latest contributions to expenditure growth in Quarter 2 2025 are shown in Figure 6. These revisions to components are discussed in more detail in this section.

Household final consumption expenditure

There was an unrevised increase of 0.1% in real household final consumption expenditure in Quarter 2 2025 and it is now 1.1% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago. Within household consumption, growth was driven by miscellaneous goods and services, transport, and restaurants and hotels.

Net tourism contributed negatively to growth in household consumption in the latest quarter. Net tourism is offset within trade, so there is no impact on the gross domestic product (GDP) aggregate. Information on how we measure net tourism is provided in our National Accounts articles: Treatment of tourism in the UK National Accounts. Excluding net tourism, domestic consumption grew by 0.4% in the latest quarter.

Revisions to household consumption across 2024 and 2025 are mainly a result of updated data such as the International Passenger Survey and from our Living Costs and Food Survey.

Consumption of government goods and services

Real government consumption expenditure grew by 1.3% in Quarter 2 2025 (previously estimated at 1.2%) and is 2.1% higher, compared with the same quarter a year ago. The growth in government consumption in the latest quarter mainly reflects higher expenditure on health (in particular on vaccinations) and public administration and defence.

Over the course of 2024 and 2025, government consumption sees revisions mainly as a result of:

• updated data for a number of components, including our annual health benchmark data, where we capture more detailed information on services delivered by the NHS
• improved volume measures for education as introduced as part of Blue Book 2025
• a review of seasonal adjustment models

Gross capital formation

Within gross capital formation, revised estimates of gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) showed a 0.5% increase in Quarter 2 2025, revised up from a first estimate fall of 1.1%. GFCF is now up by 2.9% compared with the same quarter a year ago. The increase in the latest quarter was mainly driven by dwellings, and other buildings and structures.

Within GFCF, business investment is estimated to have fallen by 1.1% in Quarter 2 2025, revised up from the first estimate fall of 4.0%. This follows a 4.1% increase in the previous quarter. Figure 7 shows the new path of business investment compared with the first quarterly estimate. Revisions reflect:

• the incorporation of improved data from the Business Enterprise Research and Development (BERD) Survey and improved measurement of globalisation as part of Blue Book 2025
• incorporation of latest Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) data and updated occupation codes used in estimation of Own Account Software
• updated Quarterly Acquisitions and Disposals of Capital Assets Survey (QCAS) data and other source data (mostly affecting the latest period)
• a review of seasonal adjustment models

Excluding the alignment adjustments, revised estimates show that real inventories fell by £109 million in Quarter 2 2025 (Table 2). Revisions across 2024 and 2025 mainly reflect updated survey and other source data, and improvements to the way changes in inventories are processed in Blue Book 2025.

Net trade

The UK’s trade deficit for goods and services is now estimated at 1.1% of nominal GDP in Quarter 2 2025. However, this includes non-monetary gold and other precious metals, which is an erratic series. It can be useful to exclude this from the trade balance.

Excluding non-monetary gold and other precious metals, the trade deficit is now estimated at 0.4% of nominal GDP in Quarter 2 2025, revised up from the previous deficit of 1.2% (Figure 8).

The trade deficit, excluding non-monetary gold and other precious metals, is shown in Figure 8 as a percentage of nominal GDP in this release compared with the first quarterly estimate. Revisions reflect:

• a number of methods changes introduced as part of Blue Book 2025, including improvements to our measurement of globalisation and multinational enterprises, which has most notably increased estimates of goods exports, and is the main driver of the revision to the trade balance in Quarter 2 2025
• HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) revisions to imports and exports of Chapter 84 Mechanical Appliances, following an in-depth quality assurance review; this has affected the period August 2024 to March 2025
• updated International Trade in Services Survey (ITIS) data replacing forecasts used in the first estimate, and in addition rebasing the survey to 2023; updated ITIS processing is the main driver of the revisions to trade in late 2023, mostly within other business services and telecommunication, computer and information services

As part of our wider methods improvements to trade statistics in Blue Book and Pink Book 2025, improvements to recording trade in precious metals have been implemented in this publication. However, while they were fully implemented for years 1997 to 2023, a processing error meant this was not the case for a small number of countries, most notably the United States, for the periods 2024 and 2025.  

Estimates of total GDP are not affected by this error and we will correct the most affected periods of Quarter 1 2025 and Quarter 2 2025 in the First quarterly estimate of GDP for Quarter 3 2025, to be published 13 November 2025, and the improvement will be fully implemented in UK trade: August 2025, to be published 16 October 2025.

The small changes in 2024 will be incorporated as part of the December Quarterly national accounts. Please see our Balance of Payments release for more detail.

Export volumes fell by 0.2% in the latest quarter and are now 3.7% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago. The fall in the latest quarter was mainly driven by a 4.2% decline in goods exports, which offset a 2.9% increase in services exports. The increase in services exports was caused by rises in intellectual property and other business services, whereas the fall in goods exports was mainly caused by material manufactures.

Import volumes are estimated to have shown no growth in the latest quarter and are now 2.2% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago. There was a 1.6% increase in goods imports, which offset a 3.2% fall in services imports. The increase in goods imports was driven by machinery and transport equipment, whereas the fall in services imports was mainly because of travel and other business services.

Nominal gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 1.0% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025 and is up by 5.6% compared with the same quarter a year ago. Growth in nominal GDP was mainly driven by increases in compensation of employees (Figure 9).

The previous and latest contributions to nominal GDP growth in Quarter 2 2025 are shown in Figure 9. However, there have been revisions across 2024 and 2025, which is further discussed in this section.

Compensation of employees

Compensation of employees increased by 1.9% in Quarter 2 2025, revised up from the first estimate of 1.3%. Growth was mainly driven by increases of 1.4% in wages and salaries, and 4.0% in employers’ social contributions.

Early estimates of private sector wages and salaries are based on estimates of the number of employees in the economy from our Labour Force Survey (LFS) and average earnings from our average weekly earnings statistics. However, there is some additional uncertainty around the employee estimates used to derive our figures of wages and salaries, because of low response rates in the LFS. We have therefore used additional information from our Earnings and employment from Pay As You Earn Real Time Information UK bulletin to help improve the accuracy of the income measure of GDP.

Revisions in compensation of employees mainly reflect:

• new annual HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) Pay As You Earn (PAYE) benchmark data for 2023 to 2024
• review of seasonal adjustment
• updated labour market indicators and other source data (replacing forecasts in the later period)

Other income

Other income is now estimated to have fallen 0.2% in the latest quarter, revised down from the first estimate increase of 0.6%. This was driven a fall in mixed income, in self-employment.

Taxes less subsidies

Taxes less subsidies are estimated to have fallen by 1.2% in Quarter 2 2025, revised down from the first estimate increase of 0.1%.

There was no growth in taxes (with growth in Value Added Tax (VAT) receipts offset by falls in Fuel Duty and the UK Emissions Trading Scheme), which was offset by a 9.7% increase in subsidies, which contribute negatively to GDP.

The revisions in taxes less subsidies mainly reflect updated data on VAT and Housing equity injection.

Gross operating surplus

Total gross operating surplus (GOS) of corporations, excluding the alignment adjustment, grew by 1.3% in Quarter 2 2025 (Table 3). This is mainly because of increases in private non-financial corporations and financial corporations.

There is uncertainty around estimates of non-financial corporations within the GOS of corporations. This is because we do not have up-to-date quarterly information on the gross trading profits of businesses. These data are collected from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) and are available with a lag of approximately two years. We rely on contextual data from other sources to inform these quarterly estimates, as outlined in our Profitability of UK companies quality and methodology information (QMI).

We produce estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) per head (or per capita), which divides UK GDP by the total UK population. This is one proxy indicator of welfare, rather than production, which reflects a country’s living standards. It captures the volume of goods and services available to the average person. Further information on this is available in our Trends in UK real GDP per head: 2022 to 2024 article.

Real GDP per head is estimated to have grown by 0.2% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025 (Figure 10) and is up by 0.9% compared with the same quarter a year ago. There have been revisions to GDP per head figures across 2024 and 2025, mainly reflecting revisions to GDP as discussed throughout the release. In addition, there are some small revisions to population estimates in this release.

We estimate real household disposable income (RHDI) per head by dividing RHDI by the total UK population. RHDI per head has increased by 0.2% in Quarter 2 2025, up from a revised 0.9% fall in the previous quarter (Figure 11). The components of this measure are further broken down in Section 7: Quarterly sector accounts.

Population figures for up to mid-2024 are based on mid-year UK population estimates published on 26 September 2025. Figures for Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2024 to Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025 are based on an interpolation between UK 2022-based population projections for mid-2025 (as published on 28 January 2025) using the migration category variant and the mid-2024 UK population estimate. Figures for Quarter 2 2025 are based entirely on UK 2022-based population projections.

Real household disposable income per head (seasonally adjusted)

Real household disposable income (RHDI) per head increased by 0.2% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025, up from a 0.9% fall in the previous quarter (Figure 12).

The increase in RHDI is because of a number of factors. Gross disposable income grew by 1.3% in the latest quarter, up from 0.6% in the previous quarter, driven by an increase of £4.4 billion in wages and salaries, and a fall in taxes on income of £4.0 billion. This was partially offset by increased household pension contributions of £2.0 billion and a £1.0 billion rise in other current taxes. Added to this, the implied deflator (used to remove the effects of inflation) fell to 1.0%, down from 1.4% in the previous quarter.

Households’ saving ratio

The households’ saving ratio is estimated to have increased to 10.7% in Quarter 2 2025, up from 10.5% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025 (Figure 13).

During Quarter 2 2025, the contribution of pension saving was unchanged at 4.5 percentage points. Non-pension saving contributed 6.1 percentage points to the saving ratio, up from 6.0 percentage points in the previous quarter.

Final consumption expenditure grew by 1.1% this quarter, down from 1.6% in the previous quarter driven by increases in spending on “housing, water, electricity, gas and other”, “passenger transport by air” and “restaurants and cafes”. The increase in gross disposable income along with decreased growth in final consumption expenditure means that growth in income is higher than expenditure this quarter.

Non-financial account net lending and borrowing (seasonally adjusted)

In the latest quarter, non-financial corporations, financial corporations, general government and non-profit institutions serving households were net borrowers, while households and the rest of the world were net lenders.

The UK’s borrowing position with the rest of the world as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have increased to 4.1% in Quarter 2 2025 compared with 2.9% of GDP in Quarter 1 2025.

Non-financial corporations’ net borrowing increased to 1.5% of GDP in the latest quarter, from 0.5% of GDP in Quarter 1 2025. Within non-financial corporations, private non-financial corporations increased their net borrowing to £11.7 billion in Quarter 2 2025, from net borrowing of £4.4 billion in the previous quarter. This increase was driven by a fall in net property income of £9.1 billion and a rise in taxes on income of £1.1 billion, partially offset by a £2.8 billion fall in gross capital formation and a £1.1 billion increase in gross operating surplus.

Financial corporations decreased their net borrowing position to 0.1% of GDP in the latest quarter following borrowing of 0.5% of GDP in Quarter 1 2025. This was driven by an increase in net property income of £4.0 billion, rise in net social contributions of £1.6 billion partially offset by a £1.5 billion fall in net capital transfers, and a £1.1 billion rise in payments of social benefits other than transfers in kind payable.

General government increased their net borrowing to 5.9% of GDP in the latest quarter, from 5.5% of GDP in Quarter 1 2025. Within general government, central government increased their net borrowing to £40.1 billion, following £36.3 billion in the previous quarter. This increase was driven by decreases in taxes on income and wealth of £3.2 billion, falling net property income of £3.0 billion, and increased final consumption expenditure of £2.8 billion. This was partially offset by an increase in social contributions of £3.4 billion and a decrease of £1.3 billion in investment grants payable.

Households increased their net lending position to 3.7% of GDP in the latest quarter, from 3.6% of GDP in Quarter 1 2025. The drivers for this position are the same as those identified in the household saving ratio section.

Financial account net lending and borrowing (not seasonally adjusted)

In Quarter 2 2025, non-financial corporations and general government were net borrowers, while financial corporations, households, non-profit institutions serving households, and the rest of the world were net lenders.

The UK’s net borrowing position with the rest of the world as a percentage of GDP is estimated to have increased to 4.4% in Quarter 2 2025 compared with 4.1% of GDP in Quarter 1 2025.

Non-financial corporations have seen a decrease in net borrowing as a percentage of GDP to 0.1% in the latest quarter, from 2.0% in Quarter 1 2025. Within this sector, private non-financial corporations decreased their net borrowing to £0.5 billion in Quarter 2 2025, from £15.5 billion in the previous quarter. This was driven by a rise in currency and deposits of £6.3 billion, a rise in net loans of £6.2 billion, and a rise in net other accounts receivable/payable of £4.8 billion, partially offset by a fall in net debt securities of £3.5 billion.

Financial corporations are net lenders at 0.2% of GDP in the latest quarter, from net borrowing of 1.8% in Quarter 1 2025. This was driven by a rise in net loans of £65.4 billion, a rise in net debt securities of £27.9 billion, and a rise in net derivatives and employee stock options of £4.5 billion. This was partially offset by a fall in net deposits with UK monetary financial institutions of £47.1 billion and a fall in net equity and investment fund shares/units of £26.8 billion.

General government increased their net borrowing as a percentage of GDP to an estimated 8.5% in the latest quarter, from 1.6% in Quarter 1 2025. Within general government, central government increased their net borrowing to £66.5 billion, following £5.5 billion in the previous quarter. This increase was driven by a rise in UK central government securities liabilities of £32.5 billion, a fall in net currency and deposits of £16.7 billion, and a fall in net loans of £6.6 billion.

Households increased their net lending as a percentage of GDP in the latest quarter to 3.9%, from 1.2% in Quarter 1 2025. This was driven by a fall in loans secured on dwellings of £14.1 billion, a rise in net other accounts of £6.9 billion, and a rise in net equity and investment fund shares/units of £2.6 billion.

Revisions

This bulletin incorporates revisions consistent with Blue Book 2025, applied across the full time series. Many of these changes have already been referenced in earlier sections. At the sector level, the revisions introduced do not alter the overall narrative for any of the main economic indicators.

Early estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) are subject to positive or negative revision, as described in our Why GDP figures are revised article. For more information, please refer to our GDP revision in Blue Book: 2024 article; this article will also be updated on 31 October 2025 to reflect the latest Blue Book 2025 revisions.

The GDP growth vintages are shown in Table 4. Revision triangles for GDP and components are available alongside the Quarterly national accounts publication.

The three approaches to measuring GDP

There are three approaches to measuring gross domestic product (GDP): the output approach, the expenditure approach and the income approach. The data and data quality are different for each approach, and this dictates the approach taken in balancing quarterly data. There are more data available on output in the UK in the short term than in the other two approaches. To get the best estimate of GDP, our published figure, estimates from all three approaches are balanced to produce an average, except in the latest two quarters where the output data take the lead, because of the larger data content.

The three approaches to measuring GDP allow us to confront our data sources within the national accounts framework. Figure 3 shows that the three approaches to measuring GDP are closely aligned. However, there can still be uncertainty at the component level, at this stage in the production cycle for 2024 and 2025, until these data have been confronted through the supply and use tables (SUTs) framework. This uncertainty may be for various reasons and is further discussed in this section.

Output approach

In the output approach, we do not currently have final estimates for intermediate consumption (the value of goods and services purchased to be used up in the production of goods and services). This is outlined in our Blue Book 2025: advanced aggregate estimates article. Initially, we use turnover and output as a proxy for changes in gross value added. We assume that the intermediate consumption ratio by industry, calculated in 2023, holds constant into 2024 onwards. More information on this is provided in Section 11: Data sources and quality of our GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: April to June 2024 bulletin.

Expenditure approach

In the expenditure approach, we currently have lower response rates for areas, such as the Living Costs and Food Survey, which is one of many data sources that inform our estimates of household consumption. We therefore rely on additional indicators, such as our Monthly Business Survey, to quality adjust some of our estimates in the short term.

Income approach

In the income approach, we do not have up-to-date quarterly information on the gross trading profits of businesses. These data are collected from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) and are available with a lag of approximately two years.

We rely on contextual data from other sources to inform these quarterly estimates, as outlined in our Profitability of UK companies quality and methodology information (QMI). There is currently more uncertainty around the compensation of employees figures in this release because of lower response rates in our Labour Force Survey (LFS), as described in our LFS: planned improvements and its reintroduction methodology. We have used additional information from our Earnings and employment Pay As You Earn Real Time Information, UK: January 2025 bulletin to help inform the estimates.

Reaching the GDP balance

Quarterly GDP is a balanced measure of the three approaches. The GDP monthly estimate focuses on gross value added (GVA) and output as a proxy for GDP. This results in data differences, in both levels and growth terms, between our quarterly bulletins (average GDP) and our GDP monthly estimate bulletins (output approach to GDP). Quarterly GDP is the lead measure of GDP because of its higher data content and inclusion of variables, which enable the conversion from a GVA concept to a GDP basis.

Information on the methods we use is in our Balancing the output, income and expenditure approaches to measuring GDP report.

Alignment adjustments, found in Table M of our GDP data tables, have a target limit of plus or minus £3,000 million on any quarter. However, in periods where the data sources are particularly difficult to balance, larger alignment adjustments are sometimes needed, as explained in our Recent challenges of balancing the three approaches of GDP article. Our standard practice is to prefer that the alignment adjustment be out of tolerance rather than over-adjust individual GDP components to achieve a balance. This is most likely to occur in the latest quarter, where the constraints are larger, and where we must align to the output estimate for the change in GDP, and where the data content is at its lowest.

To achieve a balanced GDP dataset through alignment, we apply balancing adjustments to the components of GDP where data content is particularly weak in each quarter because of a higher level of forecast content. Table 7 shows the balancing adjustments applied to the GDP quarterly national accounts dataset.

Net trade

Since the UK left the EU on 31 January 2020, the arrangements for how the UK trades with the EU changed. HMRC implemented some data collection changes following Brexit, which affected statistics on UK trade in goods with the EU. We have made adjustments to our estimates of goods imports from the EU in 2021 and 2022 to account for these changes. However, a structural break remains in the full time series for goods imports from, and exports to, the EU from January 2021.

We advise caution when interpreting and drawing conclusions from these statistics. More detail is in our Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics: summary of adjustments and the structural break from 2021 article.

International Trade in Services estimates

From September 2025 until early 2027, International Trade in Services (ITIS) data (which account for approximately 50% of total Trade in Services) will be processed once each quarterly period. During this period, the data will be based on a robust survey response rate of between approximately 60% and 70%. This will enable more focus on improving processing systems and ensuring methods and quality in the future. In line with the National Accounts Revisions Policy, forecasted data up to Quarter 2 2025 have now been replaced with ITIS-based estimates.

ITIS-based data in Trade in Services estimates at first quarterly estimate will be forecast until early 2027.

The International Passenger Survey (IPS), which is the source of travel services estimates (accounting for approximately 8% of total trade), is being transformed as part of our Improving our travel and tourism statistics project, and travel services estimates have been forecast since Quarter 1 2024. In this release, we have updated Quarters 1 and 2 2024 to be based on survey data. For later periods, estimates will be forecast during the period of the Travel and tourism transformation.

The Financial Services Survey (FSS) is undergoing transformation, to improve the quality of the ONS’s financial sector statistics. During the period of transformation, starting from Quarter 1 2024, financial services trade statistics in this publication are based on forecasts.

Pausing of producer prices publications

Business prices data with corrected chain linking methods have been used in the quarterly GDP dataset for producer price indices (PPI), import prices indices (IPI) export price indices (EPI), and service producer price indices. These updated price data have been included in our quarterly and monthly GDP datasets, including trade, for all periods in this release. The quarterly SPPI estimates are splined to months for use in monthly GDP calculations. The next monthly GDP publication on 16 October 2025 will incorporate these updates.

Any further updates to price data following the restart of the monthly business prices publication will be incorporated in GDP estimates in line with our National Accounts Revisions Policy.

Further information on the chain linking error in the producer prices dataset is detailed in our Methods update for Producer Price Indices (PPI) and Service Produce Prices Indices (SPPI) published on 10 July 2025.

Strengths and limitations

The UK National Accounts are drawn together using data from many different sources. This ensures that they are comprehensive and provide different perspectives on the economy, for example, sales by retailers and purchases by households. Further information on measuring GDP can be found in our Guide to the UK National Accounts. More quality and methodology information is available in our GDP quality and methodology information (QMI).

Seasonal adjustment

The headline estimates of quarterly GDP are seasonally adjusted. Seasonal adjustment is the process of removing the variations associated with the time of year, or the arrangement of the calendar, from a data time series.

GDP estimates, as for many data time series, are difficult to analyse using raw data because seasonal effects dominate short-term movements. Identifying and removing the seasonal component leaves the trend and irregular components.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) uses the X-13-ARIMA-SEATS approach to seasonal adjustment. Seasonal adjustment parameters are monitored closely and regularly reviewed. For more information, please see our seasonal adjustment methodology page.

In our quarterly GDP estimates, seasonal adjustment is applied at a low level and the seasonally adjusted series are aggregated to create estimates by sector and total output. As part of our quality assurance approach, residual seasonality checks are regularly completed by our time series analysis team on both the directly seasonally adjusted series and also the indirectly derived aggregate time series.

This topic is explored further in Section 5 of our Assessing residual seasonality in published outputs article updated on 30 September 2025.

Important quality information

There are common pitfalls in interpreting data series. These include:

• expectations of accuracy and reliability in early estimates are often too high
• revisions are an inevitable consequence of the trade-off between timeliness and accuracy
• early estimates are often based on incomplete data

Very few statistical revisions arise because of “errors” in the popular sense of the word. All estimates, by definition, are subject to statistical “error”.

Many different approaches can be used to summarise revisions. The section on Accuracy and reliability in our GDP QMI analyses the mean average revision and the mean absolute revision for GDP estimates over data publication iterations.

Accredited official statistics

These accredited official statistics were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in October 2016. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled “accredited official statistics”.