GDP, UK regions and countries: July to September 2021

• Methodology used to produce these estimates

• GDP in Scotland, published by the Scottish Government

• GDP in Northern Ireland, published by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency

• In Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2021, Northern Ireland, Scotland and England showed positive quarter-on-quarter growth in gross domestic product (GDP) of 1.4%, 0.9% and 0.6%, respectively, while Wales showed negative growth of 0.3%.

• Of the nine English regions, London, the North West and the South West experienced positive growth in Quarter 3 2021; the North East, East of England, West Midlands, East Midlands and the South East experienced negative growth; growth in Yorkshire and The Humber was flat, at 0.0%.

• The English regions with the largest percentage growth in Quarter 3 2021 were London at 2.3% and the North West at 1.2%.

• The North East recorded the largest negative growth in Quarter 3 2021, of 1.2%.

• In England and Wales, the industry with the largest percentage growth in Quarter 3 2021 was accommodation and food service activities; London was the region that recorded the largest growth for this industry, at 32.2%.

• Data are presented here from Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2020 to Quarter 3 2021; these do not contain any revisions to earlier data periods and are not aligned with the Blue Book 2021-consistent regional accounts estimates that were published on 30 May 2022.

• As part of the ongoing development of these experimental statistics, we are currently undertaking a project to refine constraining methods to further improve data quality; we will incorporate revisions to the historic data at the same time as introducing any improvements to methods, to minimise the frequency of revisions for our users; see section 5 for more information.

GDP

Gross domestic product (GDP) measures the value of goods and services produced in the UK. It estimates the size of and growth in the economy.

Production

Production is the process of combining various materials or other inputs in order to generate a product for consumption. It includes output in the manufacturing (the largest component of production), mining and quarrying, energy supply, and water supply and waste management industries.

Services

Services are activities that people or businesses provide for a consumer or other businesses. The main components of the service industries are:

• wholesale and retail

• hotels and restaurants

• transport, storage and communication

• business services and finance

• government and other services

Background and development

In this release, we have paused updating the historical timeseries between Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2012 and Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2021. This is because we are focusing on developing methods to improve data quality to minimise revisions for our users. The development of these statistics is part of our ongoing work programme on experimental statistics.

The main focus in this release is on Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2021. Data are not aligned to the most recently published annual regional accounts (the preferred source for annual gross domestic product (GDP) changes).

Percentage change data are presented in this release from Quarter 1 2020 to Quarter 3 2021. The data are included for each region at total industry level and within individual industries, in the tables published alongside this release.

Users who require quarterly region by industry data over a longer time period than presented in this bulletin could take historic data from our previous release and add on the latest data period. However, in doing so, users should be aware that the time series is subject to future revision.

Our work package for improvement includes a review of consistency between UK GDP and quarterly regional GDP, the processing methodology, and the constraints imposed as the datasets are compiled.

These data are designated as experimental statistics. These are statistics that are in the testing phase. We will continue to develop these statistics and seek users' views on their uses and needs for these data. We welcome feedback to help inform our development work. You can send your feedback by email to regionalgdp@ons.gov.uk.

The main data source for these estimates is turnover data from approximately 1.9 million Value Added Tax (VAT) returns. Information from the Inter-Departmental Business Register (IDBR) on workplace employment allows us to apportion the VAT turnover for each business based on their employment share within a region. The Quality assurance of administrative data (QAAD) report for VAT turnover data is available.

Other volume measure data are used where appropriate, or where VAT data has insufficient coverage. A full list of other related data sources is included in our data sources catalogue.

While the data sources and methods used in both our regional and national estimates of GDP are broadly similar, there are some clear differences. For example, the extent to which VAT data is used in the compilation of these estimates.  These estimates aim to produce the best estimates at a subnational level.