GDP, UK regions and countries: July to September 2022

• In Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2022, Wales and Scotland showed negative quarter-on-quarter growth in gross domestic product (GDP) of 2.0% and 0.3% respectively, while growth in England and Northern Ireland was flat at 0.0%.

• Of the nine English regions, London, the North East and the South West showed positive quarter-on-quarter growth in Quarter 3 2022; all other regions in England showed negative growth.

• The region with the largest positive quarter-on-quarter growth in Quarter 3 2022 was London, at 0.9%, while the largest negative growth was in the East Midlands, at 1.6%.

• In Quarter 3 2022, compared with the same quarter a year ago, Scotland, England and Northern Ireland showed positive growth in GDP of 2.6%, 2.5% and 0.8%, respectively; growth in Wales was negative when compared with the same quarter a year ago, at 2.1%.

• Of the nine English regions, London showed the largest increase in growth in GDP in Quarter 3 2022 when compared with the same quarter a year earlier, at 6.7%; this was followed by the North West with growth of 2.7%.

• Estimates in this release have taken on revisions back to Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2012; the revisions are caused by constraining to the latest regional economic activity by gross domestic product produced by regional accounts, please see Section 4 for further information. 

Our GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: October to December 2022 bulletin estimated UK GDP quarter-on-quarter growth at negative 0.1% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2022. This followed positive growth of 0.1% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2022.

Wales and Scotland were estimated to have had negative growth in Quarter 3 2022 of 2.0% and 0.3%, respectively. Growth in England and Northern Ireland in Quarter 3 2022 was flat at 0.0%.

Estimates reported in this release for Scotland and Northern Ireland are published by the Scottish Government and Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA). More information about our compilation methods can be found in Section 6 of our latest Gross domestic product (GDP), UK regions and countries QMI.

Of the nine English regions, London, the North East and the South West are estimated to have shown positive growth in Quarter 3 2022, with all other regions showing negative growth. London had the largest percentage growth at 0.9%; the region with the largest negative growth was the East Midlands at 1.6%. Of the UK countries, Wales is estimated to have shown the largest negative growth in Quarter 3 2022 at 2.0%, this is being driven by a negative growth of 8% in the production sector for Wales.

In Quarter 3 2022, when compared with the same quarter a year ago, UK growth was estimated to be 2.0%. England and Scotland were estimated to have shown growth above the UK, at 2.5% and 2.6%, respectively. London, the North West and the South East were the only regions of England showing growth above the UK, at 6.7%, 2.7% and 2.2%, respectively.

When compared with the same quarter a year earlier, all regions and countries of the UK showed smaller growth in Quarter 3 2022 than in Quarter 2 2022.

The interactive charts in this section allow users to explore gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate estimates by industry and sector, within individual regions. Data for Scotland and Northern Ireland are not shown here as they are published by the Scottish Government and the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA).

Figure 4: Interactive maps by main industrial sector for the English regions and Wales

Interactive maps by main industrial sector for the English regions and Wales, showing seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter GDP growth for Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2022

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Figure 5: Interactive chart by area for the English regions and Wales

Interactive chart by area for the English regions and Wales, showing seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter GDP growth for Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2022

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Figure 6: Time series charts by main sectors for the English regions and Wales

Interactive time series charts by main sectors for the English regions and Wales, showing seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter GDP growth, Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2020 to Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2022

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Together with the latest Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2022 estimate, this release contains planned revisions, as set out in Section 4 of our GDP, English regions and Wales revisions: February 2023 article. For further information on the methodology, please refer to our Gross domestic product (GDP), UK regions and countries Quality and Methodology Information (QMI) report. As Scotland and Northern Ireland estimates in this release are produced by Scottish Government and Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) they are not affected by the revisions outlined in this section.

Revisions to previous quarters back to 2012 are because of the following two reasons: constraining to the latest Regional economic activity by gross domestic product, UK bulletin published 25 April 2023, and updated seasonal adjustment factors because of the latest benchmarked annual estimates.

Please refer to Section 7 of our Regional economic activity by gross domestic product, UK: 1998 to 2021 bulletin for details on several refinements improving these annual statistics.

In the previous release of these estimates (February 2023) they were only benchmarked to regional accounts up until 2019. This release is now benchmarked up until 2021. These two further years of benchmarking have particularly affected the levels seen in the indices for 2020 onwards in some industries and regions. Given this is the period affected by the uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, it has resulted in more substantial data revisions than would usually be expected. Table 1 gives the revisions seen in the annual index for 2020 and 2021 at the total industry level because of benchmarking to latest regional accounts. This provides an indication of the impact of the benchmarking to the annual regional estimates.

For more information on how to compare our estimates of regional activity please refer to our Subnational economic activity statistics: user guide.

GDP

Gross domestic product (GDP) measures the value of goods and services produced in the UK. It estimates both the size and the growth of the economy.

Production

Production is the process of combining various materials or other inputs in order to generate a product for consumption. It includes output in the manufacturing (the largest component of production), mining and quarrying, energy supply, and water supply and waste management industries.

Services

Services are activities that people or businesses provide for a consumer or other businesses. The main components of the service industries are: wholesale and retail; hotels and restaurants; transport, storage and communication; business services and finance; and government and other services.

The main data for these estimates are turnover data from approximately 1.9 million Value Added Tax (VAT) returns. Information from the Inter-Departmental Business Register (IDBR) on workplace employment allows us to apportion the VAT turnover for each business based on their employment share within a region. Our Quality assurance of administrative data (QAAD) report for Value Added Tax turnover data methodology is available.

Other data sources are used where appropriate, or where VAT data has insufficient coverage. A full list of other data sources is included in our Quarterly country and regional GDP - data source catalogue 2022.

We recently improved our methods, and details on these changes can be found in our Gross domestic product (GDP), UK regions and countries QMI.

The Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) published their interim findings of their assessment of these regional GDP statistics on 30 January 2023.

While our statistics are still in development, estimates for Scotland are taken from the most recent release of GDP in Scotland published by the Scottish Government, and estimates for Northern Ireland are taken from the most recent release of the Northern Ireland Composite Economic Index (NICEI) published by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA).

Data presented in this release are for Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2012 onwards.

We welcome feedback and comments on this publication, including on presentation and further development of other data sources at regionalgdp@ons.gov.uk.

These data are designated as experimental statistics. These are statistics that are in the testing phase. Future releases will continue to develop these statistics and seek users' views on their uses and needs for these data.

While the data sources and methods used in both our regional and national estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) are broadly similar, there are some clear differences. For example, in the extent to which Value Added Tax (VAT) data is used in the compilation of these estimates.

We monitor seasonal trends and use these to adjust the data. With significant shocks to the economy, such as those seen during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, seasonal trends may be affected, although it is too soon to know if this is the case. With updates to data sources, and real-world impacts on the data, we will review and monitor the outputs as more information becomes available.

These estimates aim to produce the best estimates at a subnational level. However, the sum of the UK regions may not equal the national total and there may be some discrepancies at industry level, reflecting that there are some differences in data sources and methods. We have constrained our regional GDP estimates in such a way that minimises the changes to the region by industry quarterly growth rates. Future releases will continue to examine the impact of this method, ensuring the methodologies we use are fit for purpose. Future releases will also address the recommendations highlighted in the interim findings from the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) assessment in advance of restarting the OSR assessment into becoming National Statistics.