GDP, UK regions and countries: July to September 2019

Quarterly economic activity within the countries of the UK (England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) and the nine English regions (North East, North West, Yorkshire and The Humber, East Midlands, West Midlands, East of England, London, South East, and South West).

This is the latest release. View previous releases

3 June 2020

All regional analysis of gross domestic product (GDP) will be provided in this bulletin going forwards. We have discontinued the separate pages for each UK region. All data will still be available in our regional GDP dataset.

1 May 2020

Figure 6 time series charts have been updated to include Wales in.

Cyswllt:
Email Laura Requena

Dyddiad y datganiad:
1 May 2020

Cyhoeddiad nesaf:
July 2020

1. Other pages in this release

More information is available on the following pages:

Previous analysis for GDP was published by region on separate pages:

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2. Main points

  • In Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2019, Scotland, England and Wales showed positive growth at 0.3%, 0.6% and 0.9% respectively, while Northern Ireland fell by 0.2%.

  • Wales’ growth in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2019 was 0.9%, this follows the fall in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) of 0.1%.

  • Of the nine English regions, the highest growth in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2019 was London with 1.4%.

  • London showed the largest positive growth in gross domestic product (GDP) in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2019 when compared with the same quarter a year earlier, at 5.0%; this was more than double any other region.

  • Estimates for Scotland and Northern Ireland in this release are consistent with those published by the Scottish Government and the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) respectively.

  • Data presented for Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2012 onwards are consistent with the Balanced Regional Accounts estimates that were published in December 2019.

  • The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has released a public statement on the coronavirus (COVID-19) and the production of statistics.

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These estimates are designated as experimental statistics while they are still in development, and should be interpreted with some caution. Regional data can be volatile and quarterly movements should be considered alongside the long term trend. To assist with this, quarter on same quarter a year earlier data are published alongside the latest quarter on quarter estimates.

During the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, we are working to ensure that we continue to publish GDP, UK regions and countries. The data collection for this quarter’s publication relates to an earlier time period. We have streamlined our bulletin, however all data will continue to be available in our regional GDP dataset.

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3. Analysis of regional GDP growth

UK gross domestic product (GDP) growth was positive 0.5% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2019. This followed negative growth of 0.2% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2019.

Three of the four countries in the UK (Scotland, England and Wales) had positive quarter on quarter growth in Quarter 3 2019. Growth was highest in Wales at 0.9%, reversing the fall of 0.1% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2019. The lowest growth was in Northern Ireland at negative 0.2%.

More information about the drivers for these changes can be found in the data tables that accompany this publication and the data published by the Scottish Government and the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency.

London shows the highest growth in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2019, at 1.4%, followed by the North East at 1.3%, reversing a fall of 0.9% in the previous quarter. Yorkshire and The Humber continued to show growth at 1.0% up from the previous quarter of 0.5%. The West Midlands, East of England, South West, Wales and Scotland also showed positive growth in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2019.

Table 1 shows the latest growth across the countries and regions in Quarter 3 2019 (July to Sept) compared with the previous growth in Quarter 2 2019 (Apr to June). The North East and the West Midlands have reversed falls in the previous quarter with both regions showing a 2.2 percentage point increase in growth quarter on quarter.

Four regions in the UK had growth in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2019 above the UK level when compared with the same quarter in 2018. These were London (5.0%), which grew twice as much as any other region, Yorkshire and The Humber (2.0%), Wales (1.7%) and the North East (1.5%).

The West Midlands, North West and East of England had negative growth in Quarter 3 2019 when compared with the same quarter in 2018, at negative 1.5%, negative 1.3% and negative 0.1% respectively.

More infomation regarding the sub-industries contributing to these quaterly changes can be found in the data tables for Wales, the regions of England and the data published by the Scottish Government and Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA).

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4. GDP growth by main industrial sector for the English regions and Wales

Data for Scotland and Northern Ireland are not shown here as they are published by the Scottish Government and the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA).

Figure 4: Interactive maps by main industrial sector for the English regions and Wales

GDP growth for Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2019

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Figure 5: Interactive chart by area for the English regions and Wales

GDP growth for Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2019

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Figure 6: Interactive time series charts by main sections for the English regions and Wales

GDP growth,  Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2017 to Quarter 3 2019

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Note: The time series charts have been updated to include Wales.

More detail about the growth in GDP in each region can be found in our regional GDP dataset.

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These estimates are calculated based on site-level activity. Industry movements may differ to those at the national level, which are based on overall business activity.

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5. Glossary

GDP

Gross domestic product (GDP) measures the value of goods and services produced in the UK. It estimates the size of and growth in the economy.

Production

Production is the process of combining various materials or other inputs in order to generate a product for consumption. It includes output in the manufacturing (the largest component of production), mining and quarrying, energy supply, and water supply and waste management industries.

Services

Services are activities that people, or businesses provide for a consumer or other businesses. The main components of the service industries are: wholesale and retail; hotels and restaurants; transport, storage and communication; business services and finance; and government and other services.

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6. Measuring the data

The main data for these estimates are turnover data from approximately 1.9 million Value Added Tax (VAT) returns. Information from the Inter-Departmental Business Register (IDBR) on workplace employment allows us to apportion the VAT turnover for each business based on their employment share within a region. The quality assurance of administrative data (QAAD) report for VAT data is available.

Other volume measure data are used where appropriate or where VAT data has insufficient coverage. A full list of other data sources is included in the methodology article.

A detailed analysis of these new data was published in the Economic Review on 21 October 2019.

This publication includes a consistent time series of growth rates and indices, back to 2012. These are consistent with the Balanced Regional Accounts estimates published in December 2019. We use a statistical algorithm to automatically align our datasets to ensure consistency. Revisions back to 2012 reflect statistical improvements and ongoing changes to methods used in compiling these estimates as we develop these experimental statistics.

We welcome feedback and comments on this publication, including on presentation and further development of other data sources.

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7. Strengths and limitations

These data are designated as Experimental Statistics. These are statistics that are in the testing phase. We will continue to develop these statistics and seek users’ views on their uses and needs for these data.

While the data sources and methods used in both our regional and national estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) are broadly similar, there are some clear differences. For example, in the extent to which Value Added Tax (VAT) data is used in the compilation of these estimates.

These estimates aim to produce the best estimates at a subnational level. However, the sum of the UK regions may not equal the national total, reflecting that there are some differences in data sources and methods. We have constrained our regional GDP estimates in such a way that minimises the changes to the region by industry quarterly growth rates using automated statistical methods. While the overall impact of this constraining on the regional estimates is small, we will continue to examine the impact of this method and consider options to determine which one is best suited to these data in advance of applying to be assessed as National Statistics.

Following the announcement by the UK Statistics Authority in March 2019, Construction output price indices, Construction output in Great Britain and construction new orders were re-designated as National Statistics. It was noted, however, that the subnational and subsector breakdowns were excluded from consideration because of concerns around the path of the subnational estimates of construction output. We have worked closely with the Construction Statistics Steering Group and Consultative Committee on Construction Industry Statistics (CCCIS) on improving these estimates. While these users have acknowledged the improvements in the modelling of these estimates, there is ongoing development work to improve these lower-level estimates as we ultimately look to regain National Statistic status in due course. Any developments in this area will in turn lead to improved accuracy in the regional GDP estimates.

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Manylion cyswllt ar gyfer y Bwletin ystadegol

Laura Requena
laura.requena@ons.gov.uk
Ffôn: +44 (0)1633 456085