GDP, UK regions and countries: April to June 2019

• Regions of the UK
• Methodology used to produce these estimates
• GDP in the North East
• GDP in the North West
• GDP in Yorkshire and The Humber
• GDP in the East Midlands
• GDP in the West Midlands
• GDP in the East of England
• GDP in London
• GDP in the South West
• GDP in the South East
• GDP in Wales
• GDP in Scotland, published by the Scottish Government
• GDP in Northern Ireland, published by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency

• In Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2019, growth was negative 0.1% and 0.2% in England and Scotland respectively, while Northern Ireland and Wales grew by 0.3% and 0.4% respectively.
• The growth seen in Wales in Quarter 2 2019 partially reverses the fall in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) of 0.6%.
• Of the nine English regions, the area with the highest growth in Quarter 2 2019 was London (1.0%).
• London showed the largest positive growth in gross domestic product (GDP) in Quarter 2 2019 compared with the same quarter a year earlier, at 4.5%; this was more than double any other region.
• Estimates for Scotland and Northern Ireland in this release are consistent with those published by the Scottish Government and the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) respectively.
• Data are presented here for Quarter 2 2012 onwards; these data are consistent with the Blue Book 2019-consistent regional accounts estimates that were published in December.

England and Wales had positive growth in GDP in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2019

UK gross domestic product (GDP) growth was negative 0.2% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2019. This followed positive growth of 0.6% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2019.

Two of the four countries in the UK (England and Wales) had positive quarter on quarter growth in Quarter 2 2019. Growth was highest in Wales (0.4%), reversing the fall of 0.6% in Quarter 1 2019, and lowest in Scotland (negative 0.2%).

More information about the drivers for these changes can be found in the data tables that accompany this publication and the data published by the Scottish Government and Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA).

Growth in GDP was highest in London and lowest in West Midlands in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2019

Of the countries of the UK and the regions of England, the West Midlands, North West, North East, South East, South West and Scotland had negative growth in Quarter 2 2019. This followed positive growth in all six regions in Quarter 1 2019. London had the highest growth in Quarter 2 2019, at 1.0%.

London showed the largest positive growth in GDP in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2019 compared with the same quarter a year earlier

Of the countries and regions of the UK, two had growth in Quarter 2 2019 that was above the UK level when compared with the same quarter a year earlier. These were London (4.5%), which grew twice as much as any other region, and the East Midlands (1.8%).

The North West, West Midlands and East of England had negative growth in Quarter 2 2019 when compared with the same quarter a year earlier, at negative 0.7%, negative 0.6% and negative 0.1% respectively.

More information about the low-level industries for these changes can be found in the data tables for Wales and the regions of England and the data published by the Scottish Government and NISRA.

Data for Scotland and Northern Ireland are not shown here as they are published by the Scottish Government and Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA).

Download the data

More detail about the growth in gross domestic product (GDP) in each region can be found in the Other pages in this release.

GDP

Gross domestic product (GDP) measures the value of goods and services produced in the UK. It estimates the size of and growth in the economy.

Production

Production is the process of combining various materials or other inputs in order to generate a product for consumption. It includes output in the manufacturing (the largest component of production), mining and quarrying, energy supply, and water supply and waste management industries.

Services

Services are activities that people or businesses provide for a consumer or other businesses. The main components of the service industries are: wholesale and retail; hotels and restaurants; transport, storage and communication; business services and finance; and government and other services.

The main data for these estimates are turnover data from approximately 1.9 million Value Added Tax (VAT) returns. Information from the Inter-Departmental Business Register (IDBR) on workplace employment allows us to apportion the VAT turnover for each business based on its employment share within a region. The quality assurance of administrative data (QAAD) report for VAT turnover data is available.

Other volume measure data are used where appropriate or where VAT data have insufficient coverage. A full list of other data sources is included in the methodology article.

A detailed analysis of these new data was published in the Economic Review on 21 October 2019.

Additional analysis has allowed us to now publish a longer back series. This includes data from Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2012. This publication includes a consistent time series of growth rates and indices back to 2012; these data are consistent with the Blue Book 2019-consistent regional accounts estimates published in December 2019. We use a statistical algorithm to automatically align our datasets, to ensure consistency.

We welcome feedback and comments on this publication, including on presentation and further development of other data sources.

These data are designated as Experimental Statistics. These are statistics that are in the testing phase. We will continue to develop these statistics and seek users’ views on their uses and needs for these data.

While the data sources and methods used in both our regional and national estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) are broadly similar, there are some clear differences. For example, in the extent to which Value Added Tax (VAT) data are used in the compliation of these estimates.

These estimates aim to produce the best estimates at a subnational level. However, the sum of the UK regions may not equal the national total, reflecting that there are some differences in data sources and methods. We have constrained our regional GDP estimates in such a way that minimises the changes to the region by industry quarterly growth rates using automated statistical methods. While the overall impact of this constraining on the regional estimates is small, we will continue to examine the impact of this method and consider options to determine which one is best suited to these data in advance of applying to be assessed as National Statistics.

Following the announcement by the UK Statistics Authority (UKSA) in March 2019, Construction Output Price Indices (OPIs), UK; Construction output in Great Britain; and construction new orders were re-designated as National Statistics. It was noted, however, that the subnational and subsector breakdowns were excluded from consideration because of concerns around the path of the subnational estimates of construction output. We have worked closely with the Construction Statistics Steering Group and Consultative Committee on Construction Industry Statistics (CCCIS) on improving these estimates. While these users have acknowledged the improvements in the modelling of these estimates, there is ongoing development work to improve these lower-level estimates as we ultimately look to regain National Statistic status in due course. Any developments in this area will in turn lead to improved accuracy in the regional GDP estimates.