GDP monthly estimate, UK: November 2023

• Real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have fallen by 0.2% in the three months to November 2023, compared with the three months to August 2023.

• Monthly GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.3% in November 2023, following an unrevised fall of 0.3% in October 2023.

• Services output grew by 0.4% in November 2023 and was the main contributor to the monthly growth in GDP; this follows a fall of 0.1% in October 2023 (revised up from a 0.2% fall in our previous publication).

• Production output grew by 0.3% in November 2023, following a fall of 1.3% in October (revised down from a 0.8% fall in our previous publication).

• The construction sector fell by 0.2% in November 2023 after a fall of 0.4% in October 2023 (revised up from a 0.5% fall in our previous publication).

Real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have fallen by 0.2% in the three months to November 2023, compared with the three months to August 2023. Services showed no growth, production output fell by 1.5% and construction fell by 0.6% over the same period.

Monthly GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.3% in November 2023, following an unrevised fall of 0.3% in October 2023.

This release provides data for November 2023 and has revisions from January 2022 to September 2023, consistent with our Quarterly national accounts bulletin, published on 22 December 2023. October 2023 is also open for revision.

Output in services grew by 0.4% in November 2023 and was the largest contributing sector to the growth in monthly GDP. Production output grew by 0.3% on the month, while construction fell by 0.2%.

Monthly GDP grew by 0.2% in November 2023 compared with the same month last year. For comparison, monthly GDP fell by 0.1% in between October 2022 and October 2023 (revised down from a 0.3% growth in our previous publication).

Overall, the services sector is estimated to have shown no growth in the three months to November 2023 compared with the three months to August 2023.

The largest positive contributors to services output in this three-month period were growths of 1.4% in human health and social work activities and 1.5% in education, with fewer days of industrial action seen in both sectors in the latest three months compared with the previous three months. These growths were offset by falls in 8 of the 14 services subsectors over the same period, with the largest negative contributions coming from falls of 0.7% in information and communication and 3.1% in arts, entertainment, and recreation.

On the month, services output is estimated to have grown by 0.4% in November 2023 following a fall of 0.1% in October 2023 (revised up from a 0.2% fall in our previous publication). Figure 3 shows both the monthly and the three-month contributions from the services sector to gross domestic product (GDP) in November 2023.

The main contributor to the 0.4% monthly growth in services in November 2023 was information and communication, which saw growth of 1.5% on the month, following a 0.9% fall in October 2023. Five of the six industries within information and communication grew in November 2023, after all falling in October 2023, with the largest contributions for November coming from publishing activities (mainly attributed to the publishing of computer games) and telecommunications.

Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles grew by 0.5% in November 2023 following 0.2% growth in October 2023. This was mainly attributed to 1.3% growth in retail trade, excluding motor vehicles and motor cycles. More information on this can be found in our Retail sales, Great Britain: November 2023 bulletin.

Professional, scientific, and technical activities grew by 0.6% in November 2023 following a fall of 0.7% in October 2023. The growth in November was mainly attributed to legal activities and advertising and market research growing by 1.7% and 2.4%, respectively.

These growths were partially offset by a monthly fall of 0.2% in financial and insurance activities and a fall of 0.2% in education in November 2023.

An overview of data sources used in our estimates of service output can be found in our data sources catalogue. The Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 42.9% of the services sector by industry weight. In November 2023, the turnover response rate for the MBS element of the services sector was 82.1%. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received, and any new data will be included in future monthly GDP releases. For context, the average turnover response rate for the service sector in 2022 now stands at 97.0%.

Consumer-facing services

Output in consumer-facing services grew by 0.6% in November 2023, and remains 5.8% below pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic levels (February 2020), while all other services were 7.5% above (Figure 4). The largest positive contribution in November 2023 came from retail trade, except for motor vehicles and motorcycles, which grew by 1.3%, as published in our Retail sales, Great Britain: November 2023 bulletin.

The largest negative contribution to consumer-facing services in November 2023 came from travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities, which fell by 3.6% in November 2023.

The growth in November 2023 for consumer-facing services follows four consecutive monthly falls. Looking more broadly, consumer facing services fell by 1.0% in the three months to November compared with the three months to August. The largest contribution to the fall over this period were falls of 2.1% in food and beverage service activities and 8.4% in travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities.

Consumer-facing services were 5.8% below their pre-pandemic levels (February 2020) in November 2023, with 11 of 13 industries lower (Figure 5). Within consumer-facing services, the largest contributor to this lower level in October 2023, compared with February 2020, is buying and selling, renting, and operating of own or leased real estate, excluding imputed rent where output is 9.7% lower.

Figure 5: 11 of 13 consumer-facing service industries remain below their pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) levels (February 2020) in November 2023

Monthly consumer-facing services index, January 2019 to November 2023, UK

Notes:

1. Condensed industry titles are used for presentation purposes. For full titles, see our Consumer-facing services industry classification subsection in Section 10: Measuring the data

Download the data

More detailed breakdowns on services are available in our Index of Services, UK: November 2023 bulletin.

Production output is estimated to have fallen by 1.5% in the three months to November 2023 compared with the three months to August 2023, caused by a 1.9% fall in manufacturing, with 11 of 13 manufacturing subsections declining over this period (Figure 7). Electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply grew by 1.0%, mining and quarrying fell by 1.9%, and water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities showed no growth over the same period.

On the month, production output is estimated to have grown by 0.3% in November 2023, attributed to growth in manufacturing output. This monthly growth in production follows a fall of 1.3% in October 2023 (revised down from a 0.8% fall in our previous publication) and is the first monthly growth since June 2023.

Mining and quarrying output grew by 1.3% in November 2023, after a fall of 1.5% in October 2023. The November growth was attributed to a 2.2% rise in output in the extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas industry.

Electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply grew by 0.2% in November 2023 after a fall of 4.6% in October 2023. The monthly growth was mainly caused by a 0.6% rise in output in the electric power generation, transmission, and distribution industry.

Water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities fell by 1.0% in November 2023, mainly caused by a 1.2% fall in water collection, treatment and supply.

Manufacturing grew by 0.4% in November 2023, with growth in 9 of the 13 subsectors, after a fall of 1.2% in October 2023. The largest positive contributions in November came from manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations (up 4.8%), manufacture of food products, beverages and tobacco (up 1.4%) and manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products (up 2.1%). Both the monthly and three-month contributions are shown in the chart below (Figure 7).

The Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 75.9% of the production sector by industry weight. In November 2023, the turnover response rate for the MBS element of the production sector was 79.5%. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received and any new data will be included in future monthly gross domestic product (GDP) releases. For context, the average turnover response rate for the production sector in 2022 now stands at 96.9%. A full set of data sources used in monthly GDP can be found in our data source catalogue.

More detailed breakdowns on production are available in our Index of Production, UK: November 2023 bulletin.

Monthly construction output is estimated to have fallen by 0.6% in the three months to November 2023 compared with the three months to August 2023. New work decreased by 3.6% over the period, while repair and maintenance rose by 3.8%. Within new work, the largest contributor to the decrease came from private new housing, which decreased by 6.9%.

In November 2023, monthly construction output is estimated to have decreased 0.2% in volume terms. This follows a 0.4% decrease in October 2023 (revised up from a 0.5% fall in our previous publication).

The decrease in monthly output in November 2023 came solely from a decrease in new work (2.0% fall), with repair and maintenance increasing (2.1%) on the month. Three out of the nine sectors saw a decrease on the month.

At the sector level, the main contributors to the monthly decrease were private housing new work and infrastructure new work, which decreased 3.9% and 2.0%, respectively.

Anecdotal evidence received from returns for our Monthly Business Survey (MBS) for Construction and allied trades suggested effects of adverse weather in November 2023 led to delays in planned work. The Met Office confirmed in their Monthly weather report (PDF, 4.6MB) that November 2023 saw storm Ciaran and storm Debi cause heavy rainfall and strong winds across the UK.

Construction data are sourced from our monthly business survey. For November 2023, the survey turnover response rate for construction was 77.1%. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received and any new data will be included in future monthly gross domestic product (GDP) releases. For context, the average turnover response rate in 2022 now stands at 93.4%.

Further detail on construction output growth rates can be found in our Construction output in Great Britain: November 2023 bulletin.

There were some common themes that were anecdotally reported (as part of the Monthly Business Survey (MBS) for Production and Services) to have played a part in performance across different industries. However, it is difficult to quantify the exact impact.

Comments provided to the MBS for November 2023 suggested that the fewer number of strikes in comparison with previous months may have been a factor in the increase in monthly growth. This was cited in health (both market and non-market activity), transport sectors (rail and bus), and TV and film production, with the actors strike in America affecting production by UK businesses.

Also, comments from businesses were provided across a different variety of sectors to suggest Black Friday sales have had a positive impact on monthly turnover. While difficult to quantify and a normal seasonal event, these comments covered industries from retail, warehousing, couriers and some manufacturing industries. See our Retail sales, Great Britain: November 2023 bulletin for more information.

On the negative side, the lack of demand for construction products was prevalent across manufacturing, with manufacture of wood, rubber and plastic, glass, cement and plaster all seeing declines on the month in November 2023 in line with the two consecutive monthly falls in construction output in October and November 2023.

This release gives data for November 2023 for the first time and incorporates revisions to monthly data from January 2022 to September 2023, as published in our GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: July to September 2023 bulletin, published on 22 December 2023. October 2023 is also open to revision, taking on updated source data. Table 1 shows the revisions to monthly gross domestic product (GDP) and sectors for 2023 since the last monthly publication on 13 December 2023.

1. Revisions are rounded to one decimal place and calculated based on the one decimal place indexes.
2. Further information on current and past revisions can be found in our Revision Triangles dataset.

The main reasons for revisions in October 2023 are:

• in the services sector, the upwards revision is mainly from updated and late monthly business survey responses primarily in the information and communication subsection

• in the production sector, the downward revision is from source data replacing forecasts in mining and quarrying and electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply, as well as revised and late monthly business survey responses predominantly in the manufacture of pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations, and sewerage industries

• in the construction sector, the upwards revisions is because of updated and late monthly business survey responses for new public housing and other public new work

Details on the revisions to monthly GDP prior to October 2023 are provided in our GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: July to September 2023 bulletin.

The next monthly GDP release on 15 February 2023 will see revisions to the periods January to November 2023 in line with our National Accounts Revisions Policy. These revisions will be consistent with our GDP first quarterly estimate for October to December 2023, publishing on the same day.

Further information on measuring the data across our main data sources is available in the following bulletins:

• Construction output in Great Britain: November 2023

• Index of Production, UK: November 2023

• Index of Services, UK: November 2023

The main data source for these statistics is the Monthly Business Survey (MBS) and response rates for each can be found in our:

• Output in the construction industry dataset

• Monthly Business Survey (production) response rates dataset

• Current and historical Monthly Business Survey (services) response rates dataset

Our monthly gross domestic product (GDP) data sources catalogue provides a full breakdown of the data used in this publication.

In the UK, we produce estimates of monthly and quarterly GDP. However, there are reasons as to why these would not provide the same estimate as to where the economy is relative to its pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic levels. This primarily reflects that monthly estimate of GDP are based on only the output measure of GDP, while quarterly estimates of GDP reflect the average of the three approaches (output, income, and expenditure).

Estimates for the construction industry within monthly GDP will differ to those published in the construction output release, as they account for both the outputs produced and inputs consumed by the industry. There are also some coverage differences, given the use of the Annual Business Survey in their compilation.

Consumer-facing services industry classification

The industry breakdown used for consumer-facing services is based on the UK Standard Industrial Classification (SIC). In October 2023, we launched a 12-week public consultation on the UK adoption of industrial classification of economic activity.

The following list contains the full SIC names of industries included in consumer-facing services and their corresponding shortened industry name where this has been used in Figure 5:

• wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles - sales and repairs of motor vehicles

• retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles - retail except motor vehicles

• rail transport

• accommodation

• food and beverage service activities - food and beverage

• buying and selling, renting and operating of own or leased real estate, excluding imputed rent - real estate activities

• veterinary activities

• travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities - travel and tourism activities

• gambling and betting services

• sports activities and amusement and recreation activities - sports, amusement and recreation

• activities of membership organisations

• other personal service activities

• activities of households as employers of domestic personnel - households as employers of domestic personnel

Additional bank holiday in May 2023 for the Coronation of King Charles III

There was an additional bank holiday for the coronation of King Charles III on Monday 8 May 2023. While adjustments are made for regular calendar effects, there was no explicit adjustment for this ad hoc event. However, the timing of the bank holiday indirectly affects the number of trading days, which could affect GDP estimates positively or negatively, depending on the sector.

Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) review of GDP

The OSR have completed a review of the practices around the preparation and release of information about revisions to estimates of GDP in our Impact of Blue Book 2023 article released on 1 September 2023, as announced on the OSR website on 6 September 2023. The outcome of this review can be viewed on the OSR website. This review covered:

• processes and quality assurance in making revisions to GDP

• potential improvements to early estimates of GDP enabled through enhanced access to data

• communication of revisions to GDP, the story behind the most recent set of revisions in particular, and uncertainty in early estimates of GDP

We have already started work looking into the recommendations of this review and will set out plans more fully during January 2024.

Quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in our Gross domestic product (GDP) Quality and Methodology Information (QMI).

Monthly growth rates can be volatile. Therefore, this indicator should be used with caution and alongside other measures, such as the three-month growth rate, when looking for an indicator of the medium-term trend of the economy. However, it is useful in highlighting one-off changes that can be masked by three-month growth rates.