GDP monthly estimate, UK: September 2025

In the three months to September 2025, compared with the three months to June 2025:

• Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.1%, following growth of 0.2% in the three months to August 2025 (revised down from growth of 0.3% in our previous publication).

• Services output grew by 0.2%, compared with growth of 0.3% in the three months to August 2025 (revised down from our initial estimate of 0.4%).

• Production output fell by 0.5%; this follows a fall of 0.1% in the three months to August 2025 (revised up from a fall of 0.3% in our previous publication).

• Construction output increased by 0.1%, compared with a growth of 0.4% in the three months to August 2025 (revised up from our initial estimate of 0.3%).

In the month to September 2025:

• Monthly GDP is estimated to have fallen by 0.1%, following no growth in August 2025 (revised down from a growth of 0.1% in our previous publication) and an unrevised fall of 0.1% in July 2025.

• Production fell by 2.0%, whereas services grew by 0.2% and construction grew by 0.2% in September 2025; this fall in production was largely because of a fall in the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers.

• The manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers fell by 28.6%; a negative contribution of 0.17 percentage points to the fall in GDP in September 2025.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.1% in the three months to September 2025, compared with the three months to June 2025. This follows a growth of 0.2% in the three months to August 2025 (revised down from growth of 0.3% in our previous publication) and a growth of 0.2% in the three months to July 2025.

There was growth in two of the three main sectors in the three months to September 2025, with a rise of 0.2% in the services sector having the largest contribution to the increase in GDP during this period. Construction output also grew, by 0.1%, while production output fell by 0.5% over this period. This is consistent with our GDP first quarterly estimate, UK: July to September 2025.

In this release, July 2025 and August 2025 are open for revision.

Note that early estimates of GDP are subject to revision in future publications (both positive and negative). Please see our Why GDP figures are revised article for more information.

Monthly real GDP is estimated to have fallen by 0.1% in September 2025, following no growth in August 2025 (revised down from a 0.1% growth in our previous publication). Production fell by 2.0% in September, largely because of a fall in the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers. Services and construction both increased by 0.2% in September 2025.

Looking over the longer term, GDP is estimated to have grown by 1.3% in the three months to September 2025, compared with the same three months a year ago. Over this period services grew by 1.6%, construction grew by 1.5% whereas production fell by 0.9%.

Compared with the same month a year ago, GDP is estimated to be 1.1% higher in September 2025.

In this monthly GDP statistical bulletin we are continuing to lead with the three-month on three-month growth rates; for more information on this please see our GDP: Getting the best insight each month blog.

Production output is estimated to have fallen by 0.5% in the three months to September 2025, compared with the three months to June 2025, following a fall of 0.1% in the three months to August 2025 (revised up from a fall of 0.3% in our previous publication).

The fall in the three months to September 2025 was largely because of a fall of 0.8% in manufacturing. Mining and quarrying also fell in the three months to September 2025, experiencing a fall of 1.5%, whereas electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply, and water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities both grew by 0.7% and 0.6%, respectively.

Figure 3: Production output fell by 0.5% in the three months to September 2025, its fifth consecutive three-monthly fall

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates for Index of Production, UK, January 2023 to September 2025

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On the month, production output is estimated to have fallen by 2.0% in September 2025, following a growth of 0.3% in August 2025 (revised down from a growth of 0.4% in our previous publication). This is the largest monthly fall since January 2021.

Output in all production subsectors decreased in September 2025, mainly driven by manufacturing output, which fell by 1.7%. Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply fell by 3.4%, mining and quarrying fell by 3.4% and water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities fell by 0.7%.

Figure 4: Production sectors monthly indices and three-monthly growth rates

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates for the production sectors, UK, January 2023 to September 2025

Notes:

1 Indices are rounded to one decimal place. 

2 Weights of these sub-sectors are available in the GDP(O) data sources catalogue.

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Manufacturing output

Looking over the three-month period, manufacturing output fell by 0.8% in the three months to September 2025, compared with the three months to June 2025, with 6 of the 13 subsectors decreasing over this period. The largest negative contributors to this fall over the three months were:

• manufacture of transport equipment (down 4.5%); this was largely driven by manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers (down 10.3%), which made a negative contribution of 0.68 percentage points to the fall in manufacturing and 0.06 percentage points to the fall in gross domestic product (GDP) over this period

• manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations (down 4.3%)

• manufacture of chemicals and chemical products (down 5.6%)

These falls were partially offset by growth elsewhere, with the largest positive contributions coming from:

• manufacturing of computer, electronic and optical products (up 3.7%)

• manufacture of food products, beverages and tobacco (up 0.8%)

• other manufacturing and repair (up 1.2%)

Manufacturing output fell by 1.7% in September 2025, with output in 7 of the 13 subsectors falling. This follows a 0.6% growth in August 2025 and a fall of 0.9% in July 2025.

The largest negative contribution came from a fall of 13.8% in the manufacture of transport equipment. The main contributor to this was a fall of 28.6% in the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, which made a negative contribution of 1.88 percentage points to the fall in manufacturing and 0.17 percentage points to the fall in GDP in September 2025.

The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders reported a fall in vehicle output in September, "as cyber incident pauses production at a major manufacturer while plant restructuring drives down commercial vehicle volumes". The Cyber Monitoring Centre categorised this as "a Category 3 systemic event".

There was also a decrease in output in September 2025 for the manufacture of basic metals and metal products (down 1.6%).

These falls were partially offset by a 4.6% growth in manufacturing of computer, electronic and optical products in September 2025.

Figure 5 shows both the three-month and monthly contributions to manufacturing output from each of the manufacturing subsectors.

Our Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 72.9% of the production sector by industry weight. The turnover response rate for the MBS element of the production sector was 82.1% in September 2025. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses from businesses are received.

Any new data will be included in future monthly gross domestic product (GDP) releases, in line with our National Accounts Revisions Policy. For context, the average turnover response rates for the production sector in 2023 and 2024 now stand at 97.7% and 97.8%, respectively. A full set of data sources used in monthly GDP can be found in our GDP(O) data sources catalogue.

More detailed breakdowns on production are available in our Index of Production, UK: September 2025 release.

Services output grew by 0.2% in the three months to September 2025, compared with the three months to June 2025. This was the main contributor to gross domestic product (GDP) growth over this period, after growing by 0.3% in the three months to August 2025 (revised down from 0.4% growth in our previous publication).

Figure 6: Services grew by 0.2% in the three months to September 2025, and have shown growth in every three-month period from January 2024 to present, although the rate of growth has slowed in recent periods

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates for the services sector, UK, January 2023 to September 2025

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There was a rise in output in 9 of the 14 subsectors in the three months to September 2025, with the largest positive contributions at the subsector level coming from:

• arts, entertainment and recreation (up 3.5%), because of growth in creative, arts and entertainment activities (up 12.5%)

• real estate activities (up 0.3%), driven by imputed rent (up 0.2%) and real estate activities on a fee or contract basis (up 6.8%)

• public administration and defence; compulsory social security (up 0.8%)

Growth over the three months to September 2025 was partially offset by falls in:

• professional, scientific and technical activities (down 0.6%)

• other service activities (down 3.4%)

• accommodation and food service activities (down 0.4%)

At the more detailed industry level, rental and leasing activities was the largest contributor to growth in services with a growth of 7.0% in the three months to September 2025. However, this was partially offset by a decrease in output in all other industries in the administrative and support service activities subsector.

Services output is estimated to have grown by 0.2% in September 2025. This follows a 0.1% fall in August 2025 (this has been revised down from no growth in our previous publication). In September 2025, 8 of the 14 subsectors showed growth.

The largest positive contribution to services growth in September 2025 came from wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, which grew by 1.4%. This was mainly driven by a 1.7% rise in wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles. Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles also grew, by 3.4%, its largest growth since April 2023. The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) reported this was the best September for new car registrations since 2020.

Information and communication also contributed to services growth in September 2025, with output increasing in this subsector by 0.8% in the month. The growth in September 2025 was mainly driven by motion picture, video and TV programme production, sound recording and music publishing activities, which grew by 5.4%.

Education also contributed positively in September 2025, with a growth of 0.8%, and both the market and non-market output increasing.

The largest negative contribution at the subsector level in September 2025 came from professional, scientific and technical activities where output fell by 0.9%. This fall was driven by a 4.9% decrease in scientific research and development.

Output also decreased in other service activities (down 2.9%) and human health and social work activities (down 0.2%) in September 2025.

Consumer-facing services

Consumer-facing services output decreased by 0.1% in the three months to September 2025, compared with the three months to June 2025. The largest negative contributions in this period came from:

• other personal service activities (down 5.1%)

• travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities (down 5.0%)

• accommodation (down 1.1%)

• buying and selling, renting and operating of own or leased real estate, excluding imputed rent (down 0.3%)

The largest partially offsetting increases came from retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles, and wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles which grew by 0.9% and 2.1% respectively. For more information, see our Retail sales, Great Britain: September 2025 bulletin.

Output in consumer-facing services saw a growth of 0.4% in September 2025, following no growth in August 2025. The largest positive contributions at the industry level came from wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (up 3.4%) and retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles (up 0.5%), while the largest negative contribution came from other personal service activities (down 4.3%) and food and beverage service activities (down 0.5%).

More information on consumer-facing services data is available in our Consumer-facing services September 2025 dataset.

An overview of data sources used in our estimates of service output can be found in our GDP(O) data sources catalogue. Our Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 43.6% of the services sector by industry weight. The turnover response rate for the MBS element of the services sector was 84.6% in September 2025. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received. Any new data will be included in future monthly GDP releases. For context, the average turnover response rate for the service sector in 2023 and 2024 now stand at 97.5% and 97.6%, respectively.

More detailed breakdowns on services are available in the Index of Services, UK: September 2025 release.

Construction output is estimated to have increased by 0.1% in the three months to September 2025 compared with the three months to June 2025. Repair and maintenance increased by 0.6%, and new work fell by 0.2% over the period.

Within repair and maintenance, the largest positive contributor came from private housing repair and maintenance, which grew by 2.9%. In new work, the largest negative contributor came from private housing new work, which fell by 1.9%.

Figure 9: Construction output grew by 0.1% in the three months to September 2025, compared with the three months to June 2025

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates for the construction sector, Great Britain, January 2023 to September 2025

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Monthly construction output is estimated to have grown by 0.2% in September 2025. This follows a decrease of 0.5% in August 2025 (revised down from a 0.3% fall in our previous publication) and an increase of 0.2% in July 2025 (revised up from no growth in our previous publication).

The increase in monthly output in September 2025 came solely from an increase of 0.7% in new work, as repair and maintenance decreased by 0.5% on the month. At the sector level, the main contributor to the monthly increase was private commercial new work, which grew by 2.5%.

Figure 10: New work increased while repair and maintenance decreased in the three months to September 2025

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates of the construction subsectors, Great Britain, January 2023 to September 2025

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Figure 11 shows both the monthly and three-month contributions to construction output from each of the construction sectors.

Construction data are sourced from our Monthly Business Survey. For September 2025, the survey turnover response rate for construction was 78.4%. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received and any new data will be included in future monthly gross domestic product (GDP) releases. For context, the average turnover response rates in 2022 and 2023 now stand at 94.8% and 95.4%, respectively, while the average response rate for 2024 is 95.7%.

Further detail on construction output growth rates can be found in our Construction output in Great Britain: September 2025.

In this release, July and August 2025 are open for revision.

Table 1 shows the revisions to monthly gross domestic product (GDP) and its main sectors from July 2025 to August 2025 since the last publication on 16 October 2025.

The downward revision to services growth in July and August 2025 is largely because of higher quality quarterly data sources replacing initial monthly estimates in the human health activities industry.

The upward revision to production in July 2025 is largely because of updated data in the electric power generation, transmission and distribution industry. The downward revision in August 2025 is because of updated data in manufacturing.

The upwards revision in July 2025 and downward revisions in August 2025 to construction are because of late and updated monthly survey data.

The level of accuracy of growth rates in these statistics is one decimal place. While growth rates can be calculated to more than one decimal place using our monthly GDP and main sectors to four decimal places dataset, where a series is estimated to have shown no growth over a period, looking at further decimal places to gauge a direction is not recommended because of increasing levels of uncertainty.

Further information on measuring the data across our main data sources is available in the following releases:

• Index of Services, UK: September 2025

• Index of Production, UK: September 2025

• Construction output in Great Britain: September 2025

The main data source for these statistics is the Monthly Business Survey (MBS) and response rates for each can be found at

• Index of Services response rates

• Index of Production response rates

• Construction response rates

The Monthly GDP data sources catalogue provides a full breakdown of the data used in this publication.

In the UK, we produce estimates of monthly and quarterly GDP. Monthly estimates of GDP are based on only the output measure of GDP, while quarterly estimates of GDP reflect the average of the three approaches (output, income and expenditure).

Estimates for the construction industry within monthly GDP will differ to those published in the construction output release as they account for both the outputs produced and inputs consumed by the industry. There are also some coverage differences given the use of the Annual Business Survey in their compilation.

Consumer-facing services industry classification

The industry breakdown used for consumer-facing services is based on the UK Standard Industrial Classification (SIC).

The following list contains the full SIC names of industries included in consumer-facing services:

• wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles

• retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles

• rail transport

• accommodation

• food and beverage service activities

• buying and selling, renting and operating of own or leased real estate, excluding imputed rental

• veterinary activities

• travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities

• gambling and betting services

• sports activities and amusement and recreation activities

• activities of membership organisations

• other personal service activities

• activities of households as employers of domestic personnel

Intermediate consumption in early estimates of monthly GDP

Monthly GDP measures the gross value added (GVA) of each industry in the economy. GVA is derived as the industry's output minus its intermediate consumption, where output is the value of goods and services produced and intermediate consumption is the value of goods and services purchased to be used in the production of goods and services.

Estimates of intermediate consumption are only collected annually. For most industries, our monthly estimates are based on deflated turnover or volume estimates of output as a proxy for GVA. Complete estimates of GVA are calculated as part of our annual Blue Book process, where both output and intermediate consumption are measured. The annual process for calculating estimates of GVA is described in our Double deflation and the supply use framework in the UK National Accounts article.

The main assumption this proxy approach makes is that the relationship between output and intermediate consumption remains the same past the last year where annual GVA estimates are available. Therefore, the extent to which this proves not to be the case is one cause of revision between our early estimates of GVA and the fully balanced annual estimates. This relationship can be represented by the intermediate consumption ratio or IC ratio. This is the intermediate consumption of an industry divided by its output. The last year where annual GVA estimates are available is 2023 and the intermediate consumption ratios for each section are shown in Table 2.

When the annual data for 2024 are available, if the observed IC ratio of an industry is higher, it requires more product inputs to create the same amount of output, and hence GVA (other things equal) will be lower. We therefore expect an increase in the IC ratio of an industry to be associated with a downward revision in GVA growth. Similarly, a lower IC ratio in the most recent year would be associated with an increase in the GVA growth rate. 

Non-market education output methodology

School attendance data are used as our source to estimate education output by the non-market sector. Education is considered to be provided across the whole year and so school holidays, or school leavers, do not reduce output over the summer. As attendance levels were not available over the summer, the June 2025 value was carried forward. Now that we have data for September 2025, we have recalculated the July and August 2025 estimates based on the change in attendance between June and September.

Accredited official statistics

These accredited official statistics were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in March 2015. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled "accredited official statistics".

Quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in the Gross domestic product (GDP) QMI.

Monthly growth rates can be volatile. This indicator should therefore be used with caution and alongside other measures, such as the three-month growth rate, when looking for an indicator of the medium-term trend of the economy. However, it is useful in highlighting one-off changes that can be masked by three-month growth rates.

Restarting of producer prices publications

Following the restart of monthly business prices publications on 22 October 2025, business prices data with corrected chain-linking methods and updated historical weights have been used in the monthly GDP dataset for Producer Price Indices (PPI), Import Price Indices (IPI), Export Price Indices (EPI) and Service Producer Price Indices (SPPI) for July, August and September 2025 in this release. The quarterly SPPI estimates are splined to months for use in monthly GDP calculations.

These updates to business prices data will be incorporated in GDP estimates in line with our National Accounts Revisions Policy.

Further information on the chain-linking error and the impact of methodological changes in the producer prices dataset are detailed in our Impact of correction to chain-linking methodology used in Producer Price Indices and Services Producer Price Indices: October 2025 article published on 22 October 2025.

Seasonal adjustment

The monthly estimates of GDP are seasonally adjusted. Seasonal adjustment is the process of estimating and removing the variations associated with the time of year, or the arrangement of the calendar, from a data time series.

GDP estimates, as for many data time series, are difficult to analyse using just raw data because seasonal effects can dominate short-term movements. Identifying and removing the seasonal component leaves the trend and irregular components.

The ONS uses the X-13-ARIMA-SEATS approach to seasonal adjustment. Seasonal adjustment parameters are monitored closely and regularly reviewed. For more information, please see our seasonal adjustment methodology page.

In our monthly GDP estimates, seasonal adjustment is applied at the industry level and the seasonally adjusted series are aggregated to create estimates by sector and total output. As part of our quality assurance approach, residual seasonality checks are regularly completed by our time series analysis team on both the directly seasonally adjusted series and also the indirectly derived aggregate time series.

This topic is explored further in our Assessing residual seasonality in published outputs article updated on 30 September 2025.