GDP monthly estimate, UK: May 2025

• Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have fallen by 0.1% in May 2025, following an unrevised fall of 0.3% in April 2025 and growth of 0.4% in March 2025 (revised up from 0.2% in our previous publication).

• Real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.5% in the three months to May 2025, compared with the three months to February 2025, largely driven by growth in the services sector in this period.

• Monthly services output grew by 0.1% in May 2025, following a fall of 0.3% in April 2025 (revised up from a 0.4% fall in our previous publication), and grew by 0.4% in the three months to May 2025.

• Production output fell by 0.9% in May 2025, following an unrevised fall of 0.6% in April 2025, but grew by 0.2% in the three months to May 2025.

• Construction output fell by 0.6% in May 2025, following growth of 0.8% in April 2025 (revised down from 0.9% growth in our previous publication), but grew by 1.2% in the three months to May 2025.

Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have fallen by 0.1% in May 2025, following an unrevised fall of 0.3% in April 2025, and growth of 0.4% in March 2025 (revised up from 0.2% in our previous publication).

Real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.5% in the three months to May 2025, compared with the three months to February 2025. This reflected growth earlier in the year that resulted, in part, from some activity being brought forward to February 2025 and March 2025. There was growth in all three main sectors in the three months to May 2025. This included a rise of 0.4% in services sector output, which was the main contributor to the increase in GDP. Production and construction output grew by 0.2% and 1.2%, respectively.

Early estimates of GDP are subject to revision in future publications (both positive and negative). Please see our Why GDP figures are revised article for more information. In this release, April 2025 is open for revision and January 2025 to March 2025 have also been revised in line with our GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: January to March 2025 bulletin, published on 30 June 2025.

Of the three main sectors in May 2025, production output was the largest contributor to the monthly GDP fall, decreasing by 0.9%. Construction output also decreased, by 0.6%. These figures were partially offset by an increase of 0.1% in services output in May 2025.

GDP is estimated to have grown by 1.0% in the three months to May 2025, compared with the three months to May 2024. During this period, services grew by 1.0%, while production showed no growth and construction output rose by 2.2%.

GDP is estimated to be 0.7% higher in May 2025, compared with the same month a year ago.

Services output is estimated to have grown by 0.1% in May 2025, after falling by 0.3% in April 2025 (revised up from a 0.4% fall in our previous publication), with 10 of the 14 subsectors growing in May 2025.

Overall, the services sector is estimated to have grown by 0.4% in the three months to May 2025, compared with the three months to February 2025. There was a rise in output in 8 of the 14 subsectors during this period, with the largest positive contributions at the subsector level coming from information and communication (up 3.2%) and administrative and support service activities (up 2.3%).

The largest positive contribution to services growth in May 2025 was the information and communication subsector, which grew by 2.0%. Five of the six industries in this subsector grew in May 2025, with the largest contribution coming from an increase of 3.0% in the computer programming, consultancy and related activities industry.

Professional, scientific and technical activities was the second largest contributor to services growth in May 2025, with output increasing in this subsector by 0.8% during the month. This was largely because of legal activities output increasing by 6.1% in May 2025, after falling by 10.2% in April, and growing by 6.8% in March. Within legal activities, conveyancing solicitors have seen demand affected by the recent changes to Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT). This has led to property purchases being brought forward ahead of increases in SDLT rates in England and Northern Ireland on 1 April 2025. This is discussed further in our previous GDP monthly estimate, UK: April 2025 bulletin.

The largest negative contribution at the subsector level in May 2025 came from the wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles subsector, where output fell by 1.5%. This was driven by a 2.7% fall in in retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles, following four consecutive months of growth (Figure 5). For further information on this industry's movements please see our Retail Sales, Great Britain: May 2025 bulletin.

Consumer-facing services

Output in consumer-facing services decreased by 1.2% in May 2025, following three consecutive months of growth. The largest contribution to this fall came from a 2.7% decline in retail trade, excluding motor vehicles and motorcycles. For further information on this industry's movements please see our Retail Sales, Great Britain: May 2025 bulletin. Sports activities and amusement parks and recreation activities also fell by 3.5%, and travel agency and tour operator and other reservation services fell by 4.2%. The largest partially offsetting positive contribution came from accommodation, which grew by 2.4% in May 2025.

Consumer-facing services output rose by 0.7% in the three months to May 2025, compared with the three months to February 2025. The largest positive contributions in this period came from:

• food and beverage services (up 2.6%)

• retail trade, excluding motor vehicles and motorcycles (up 0.9%)

• other personal services (up 2.7%)

More information on consumer-facing services data is available in our Consumer-facing services: May 2025 dataset.

An overview of data sources used in our estimates of service output can be found in our GDP(o) data sources catalogue. Our Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 43.6% of the services sector by industry weight. The turnover response rate for the MBS element of the services sector was 86.9% in May 2025. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received. Any new data will be included in future monthly GDP releases. For context, the average turnover response rate for the services sector in 2023 and 2024 now both stand at 97.5%.

More detailed breakdowns on services are available in our Index of Services, UK: May 2025 bulletin.

Production output is estimated to have fallen by 0.9% on the month in May 2025, following an unrevised fall of 0.6% in April 2025. The fall in May 2025 was mainly driven by manufacturing output decreasing by 1.0%. Mining and quarrying output also fell in May 2025, by 3.2%. These falls were partially offset by growth in water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities, as well as in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply, which grew by 0.8% and 0.3%, respectively in May 2025.

In the three months to May 2025, compared with the three months to February 2025, production output is estimated to have grown by 0.2%. Water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities (up 3.7%) and manufacturing (up 0.4%) grew over this three-month period, while electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (down 2.8%) and mining and quarrying (down 1.6%) fell.

Manufacturing output fell by 1.0% in May 2025, following a 0.7% fall in April 2025. Manufacturing was the largest contributor to the overall decrease in production output in May 2025, with 9 of the 13 subsectors declining.

The largest negative contribution came from a fall of 4.2% in the manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations, following growth of 5.4% in April 2025. The manufacture of transport equipment also fell in May 2025, by 1.3%, following a fall of 5.3% in April 2025. Both monthly declines were largely because of the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers industry. The manufacture of basic metals and metal products also contributed negatively, falling by 1.8% in May 2025.

The largest positive contribution within manufacturing came from the manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c. which grew by 3.4% in May 2025.

Figure 8 shows both the monthly and three-month contributions to manufacturing output from each of the manufacturing subsectors.

Manufacturing output rose by 0.4% in the three months to May 2025, compared with the three months to February 2025, with 7 of the 13 subsectors growing over this period. The largest contributor to growth in this period was the manufacture of transport equipment (up 3.0%).

The manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c. (up 3.0%) also contributed positively, while these growths were partially offset by a fall in the manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products (down 4.0%).

Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers industry

The manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers industry fell by 3.7% in May 2025, following a fall of 9.5% in April 2025. The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) reported that the decline was driven by a combination of factors, including model changeovers, restructuring and the impact of US tariffs.

However, these two declines follow three consecutive months of growth and, in the three months to May 2025, compared with the three months to February 2025, the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers industry increased by 2.1%. Despite this growth over the last three months, in May 2025, the industry is estimated to be 15.6% below its peak, which was in February 2024.

Our Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 72.9% of the production sector by industry weight. The turnover response rate for the MBS element of the production sector was 88.1% in May 2025. We would expect this to increase over time, as more responses from businesses are received. Any new data will be included in future monthly gross domestic product (GDP) releases, in line with our National accounts revisions policy. For context, the average turnover response rate for the production sector in 2023 and 2024 now both stand at 97.7%. A full set of data sources used in monthly GDP can be found in our GDP(o) data sources catalogue.

More detailed breakdowns on production are available in our Index of Production, UK: May 2025 bulletin.

Monthly construction output is estimated to have fallen by 0.6% in May 2025. This follows three consecutive months of growth, including an increase of 0.8% in April 2025. The fall in monthly output in May 2025 came solely from a decrease of 2.1% in repair and maintenance, as new work increased by 0.6%.

Five out of the nine sectors saw decreases in May 2025. At the sector level, the main contributors to the monthly decrease were non-housing repair and maintenance, and private housing repair and maintenance, which fell by 2.4% and 1.8%, respectively.

Construction output is estimated to have increased by 1.2% in the three months to May 2025 compared with the three months to February 2025. New work increased by 0.9% over the period, and repair and maintenance grew by 1.5%. Within new work, the largest positive contributor came from infrastructure new work, which grew by 5.3%. In repair and maintenance (R&M) the largest positive contributor came from non-housing R&M which grew by 1.7%.

Figure 11 shows both the monthly and three-month contributions to construction output from each of the construction sectors.

Construction data are sourced from our monthly business survey. For May 2025, the survey turnover response rate for construction was 76.5%. We would expect this to increase over time, as more responses are received, and any new data will be included in future monthly gross domestic product (GDP) releases. For context, the average turnover response rates in 2022 and 2023 now stand at 94.8% and 95.4%, respectively, while the average response rate for 2024 is 95.5%.

Further detail on construction output growth rates can be found in our Construction output in Great Britain: May 2025 bulletin.

There were some common themes that were anecdotally reported to have played a part in performance across different industries in May 2025, as part of our monthly business surveys. However, it is difficult to quantify their exact impact.

Similarly to recent months, comments received suggested the change in Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) thresholds for home buyers in England and Northern Ireland affected activity in May 2025. Most notably, real estate agencies saw a decline (down 4.3%) in May as property purchases were completed ahead of the changes. This change was also cited in legal activities by conveyancing solicitors and by house removal firms. While legal activities saw a sizeable monthly growth (up 6.9%) it is still below its March 2025 level.

Businesses who also export to the US cited the changes in tariffs on exports as a possible reason for reduced output in May 2025. These comments mainly centred on the manufacture of motor vehicles and wholesale industries but were also cited in other areas of manufacturing.

This release gives revisions for April 2025 for the first time, taking on late and updated source data since our last publication on 12 June 2025.

January 2025 to March 2025 have also been revised in line with our GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: January to March 2025 bulletin, published on 30 June 2025.

The upwards revision to services in April 2025 is largely because of late and updated survey responses, particularly in the computer programming, consultancy and related activities industry, and in the accounting, bookkeeping and auditing activities; tax consultancy industry.

The downwards revision to construction in April 2025 is because of late and updated survey responses.

The level of accuracy of growth rates in these statistics is one decimal place. While growth rates can be calculated to more than one decimal place using our Monthly gross domestic product (GDP) and main sectors to four decimal places dataset, where a series is estimated to have shown no growth over a period, looking at further decimal places to gauge a direction is not recommended because of increasing levels of uncertainty.

Further information on measuring the data across our main data sources is available in the following releases:

• our Index of Services, UK: May 2025 bulletin

• our Index of Production, UK: May 2025 bulletin

• our Construction output in Great Britain: May 2025 bulletin

The main data source for these statistics is the monthly business survey (MBS) and response rates for each can be found in:

• our Index of Services response rates

• our Index of Production response rates

• our Construction response rates

The Monthly GDP data sources catalogue provides a full breakdown of the data used in this publication.

In the UK, we produce estimates of monthly and quarterly GDP. Monthly estimates of GDP are based on only the output measure of GDP, while quarterly estimates of GDP reflect the average of the three approaches (output, income and expenditure).

Estimates for the construction industry within monthly GDP will differ to those published in the construction output release, as they account for both the outputs produced and inputs consumed by the industry. There are also some coverage differences, given the use of the Annual Business Survey in their compilation.

Consumer facing services industry classification

The industry breakdown used for consumer-facing services is based on the UK Standard Industrial Classification (SIC).

The following list contains the full SIC names of industries included in consumer facing services:

• Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles

• Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles

• Rail transport

• Accommodation

• Food and beverage service activities

• Buying and selling, renting and operating of own or leased real estate, excluding imputed rental

• Veterinary activities

• Travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities

• Gambling and betting services

• Sports activities and amusement and recreation activities

• Activities of membership organisations

• Other personal service activities

• Activities of households as employers of domestic personnel

Intermediate consumption in early estimates of monthly GDP

Monthly GDP measures the gross value added (GVA) of each industry in the economy. GVA is derived as the industries output minus its intermediate consumption, where output is the value of goods and services produced, and intermediate consumption is the value of goods and services purchased to be used in the production of goods and services.

Estimates of intermediate consumption are only collected annually. For most industries, our monthly estimates are based on deflated turnover or volume estimates of output as a proxy for GVA. Complete estimates of GVA are calculated as part of our annual blue book process, here both output and intermediate consumption are measured. The annual process for calculating estimates of GVA is described in our Double deflation and the supply and use framework in the UK National Accounts article.

The main assumption this proxy approach makes is that the relationship between output and intermediate consumption remains the same past the last year where annual GVA estimates are available. Therefore, the extent to which this proves not to be the case is one cause of revision between our early estimates of GVA and the fully balanced annual estimates. This relationship can be represented by the intermediate consumption ratio or IC ratio. This is the intermediate consumption of an industry divided by its output. The last year where annual GVA estimates are available is 2022. The intermediate consumption ratios for each section are shown in Table 2.

When the annual data for 2023 are available, if the observed IC ratio of an industry is higher, it requires more product inputs to create the same amount of output, and hence GVA (other things equal) will be lower. We therefore expect an increase in the IC ratio of an industry to be associated with a downward revision in GVA growth. Similarly, a lower IC ratio in the most recent year would be associated with an increase in the GVA growth rate. 

The annual 2023 data will be included for the first time in our GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: April to June 2025 bulletin, publishing on 30 September 2025, and our GDP Monthly estimate UK: August 2025 on 16 October.

Strengths and limitations

These accredited official statistics were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in March 2015. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled "accredited official statistics".

Quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in our GDP QMI.

Monthly growth rates can be volatile. This indicator should therefore be used with caution and alongside other measures, such as the three-month growth rate, when looking for an indicator of the medium-term trend of the economy. However, it is useful in highlighting one-off changes that can be masked by three-month growth rates.

Pausing of Producer Prices publications 

Business prices data with corrected chain linking methods have been used in this release for producer price indices (PPI), import prices indices (IPI) and export price indices (EPI). These data have now been used from January 2025 onwards in the monthly GDP dataset.

Corrected service producer price indices (SPPI) have not been included. Further analysis will be made on the corrected SPPI dataset. We intend to include this in our GDP monthly estimate, UK: June 2025 bulletin, and in our GDP first quarterly estimate, UK: April to June 2025 bulletin, publishing on 14 August.

The full implementation of updated business prices data will be managed in line with the national accounts revisions policy, with the full time series update being included in our GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: April to June 2025 bulletin on 30 September 2025, and in our Blue Book 2025 release.

Further information on the chain linking error in the producer prices dataset are detailed in our Methods update for Producer Price Indices (PPI) and Service Produce Prices Indices (SPPI) published on 10 July 2025.

Seasonal adjustment

Our monthly GDP estimates are seasonally adjusted. Seasonal adjustment is the process of removing the variations associated with the time of year, or the arrangement of the calendar, from a data time series.

GDP estimates, as for many data time series, are difficult to analyse using raw data because seasonal effects dominate short-term movements. Identifying and removing the seasonal component leaves the trend and irregular components.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) uses the X-13-ARIMA-SEATS approach to seasonal adjustment. Seasonal adjustment parameters are monitored closely and regularly reviewed. For more information, please see our seasonal adjustment methodology page.

In our monthly GDP estimates, seasonal adjustment is applied at the industry level and the seasonally adjusted series are aggregated to create estimates by sector and total output. As part of our quality assurance approach, residual seasonality checks are regularly completed by our time series analysis team on both the directly seasonally adjusted series and the indirectly derived aggregate time series.

This topic is explored further in Section 6 of our Assessing residual seasonality in published outputs article, published on 9 May 2025.