GDP monthly estimate, UK: June 2025

• Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.4% in June 2025, following an unrevised fall of 0.1% in May 2025 and a fall of 0.1% in April 2025 (revised up from a 0.3% fall in our previous publication).

• Real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.3% in the three months to June 2025, compared with the three months to March 2025, largely driven by growth in the services sector in this period.

• Monthly services output grew by 0.3% in June 2025, following unrevised growth of 0.1% in May 2025 and a fall of 0.2% in April 2025 (revised up from a 0.3% fall in our previous publication).

• Production output grew by 0.7% in June 2025, following a fall of 1.3.% in May 2025 (revised down from a 0.9% fall in our previous publication) and no growth in April 2025 (revised up from a 0.6% fall in our previous publication).

• Construction output grew by 0.3% in June 2025, following a fall of 0.5% in May 2025 (revised up from a 0.6% fall in our previous publication) and growth of 0.9% in April 2025 (revised up from growth of 0.8% in April 2025).

• In the three months to June 2025, compared with the three months to March 2025, services grew by 0.4% and construction grew by 1.2%, but these were partially offset by a fall in production of 0.3%.

Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.4% in June 2025, following an unrevised fall of 0.1% in May 2025 and a fall of 0.1% in April 2025 (revised up from a 0.3% fall in our previous publication).

Real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.3% in the three months to June 2025, compared with the three months to March 2025. This is consistent with our GDP first quarterly estimate, UK: April to June 2025 release. There was growth in two of the three main sectors in the three months to June 2025. A rise of 0.4% in the services sector made the largest contribution to the increase in GDP, and construction output grew by 1.2%, while production output fell by 0.3% over this period.

Note that early estimates of GDP are subject to revision in future publications (both positive and negative). Please see our Why GDP figures are revised article for more information.

In this release, April 2025 and May 2025 are open for revision.

All three main sectors grew in June 2025, services output was the largest contributor to the growth in monthly GDP, increasing by 0.3%. Production and construction output also increased in June 2025, by 0.7% and 0.3% respectively.

Looking over the longer term, GDP is estimated to have grown by 1.1% in the three months to June 2025, compared with the three months to June 2024. Over this period services grew by 1.2%, production grew by 0.3%, and construction output rose by 2.2%. Compared with the same month a year ago, GDP is estimated to be 1.4% higher in June 2025.

Services output is estimated to have grown by 0.3% in June 2025, after growing by 0.1% in May 2025 and falling by 0.2% in April 2025 (revised up from a fall of 0.3% in our previous publication), with 7 of the 14 subsectors growing in June 2025.

The largest positive contribution to services growth in June 2025 came from the professional, scientific and technical activities subsector which grew by 1.7%. Five of the eight industries in this subsector grew in June 2025 with the largest contributions coming from an increase of 8.3% in scientific research and development and an increase of 6.7% in architectural and engineering activities; technical testing and analysis.

Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles was the second-largest contributor to services growth in June 2025, with output increasing in this subsector by 0.8% in the month. This was mainly driven by the wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles industry (up 3.1%). The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) reported a "bumper June for UK new car market" with new car registrations in June 2025 at the highest level seen in June since 2019. The retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles industry, also increased (up 0.9%). These increases were partially offset by a fall in wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles where output fell for the third consecutive month (down 0.2%).

The largest negative contributions at the subsector level in June 2025 came from education and other service activities, where output fell by 0.5% and 1.6% respectively.

Looking more broadly, the services sector is estimated to have grown by 0.4% in the three months to June 2025, compared with the three months to March 2025. There was a rise in output in 7 of the 14 subsectors in this period with the largest positive contributions at the subsector level coming from:

• Information and communication (up 2.0%)

• Human health and social work activities (up 1.1%)

• Administrative and support services (up 1.4%)

All three of these subsectors have seen an upwards trend in recent months (Figure 4).

Despite driving monthly growth in June 2025, professional, scientific and technical activities and wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles output fell over the three months to June 2025, compared with the three months to March 2025.

Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles fell by 0.9% in the three months to June 2025, largely because of declines in wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles.

Professional scientific and technical activities fell by 0.3% in the three months to June with five of the eight industries declining over the three-month period.

Consumer-facing services

Output in consumer-facing services increased by 0.2% in June 2025, following a fall of 1.2% in May 2025. The largest positive contributions at the industry level came from:

• Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (up 3.1%)

• Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles (up 0.9%)

The largest partially offsetting fall came from a 6.0% decline in travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities.

Consumer-facing services output rose by 0.3% in the three months to June 2025, compared with the three months to March 2025. The largest positive contributions in this period came from:

• food and beverage services (up 3.0%)

• other personal services (up 1.9%)

The largest partially offsetting fall came from a 6.2% decline in travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities.

More information on consumer-facing services data is available in our Consumer-facing services June 2025 dataset.

An overview of data sources used in our estimates of service output can be found in our GDP(o) data sources catalogue. Our Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 43.6% of the services sector by industry weight. The turnover response rate for the MBS element of the services sector was 88.8% in June 2025. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received. Any new data will be included in future monthly GDP releases. For context, the average turnover response rate for the service sector in 2023 and 2024 now both stand at 97.5%.

More detailed breakdowns on services are available in our Index of Services, UK: June 2025 release.

On the month, production output is estimated to have grown by 0.7% in June 2025, following a fall of 1.3% in May 2025 (revised down from a fall of 0.9% in our previous publication) and showing no growth in April 2025 (revised up from a fall of 0.6% in our previous publication). The growth in June 2025 was mainly driven by manufacturing output which increased by 0.5%. Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply, and water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities, also grew in June 2025, by 3.3% and 0.5% respectively. These growths were partially offset by a fall mining and quarrying, which fell by 0.4% in June 2025.

In the three months to June 2025, compared with the three months to March 2025, production output is estimated to have fallen by 0.3%. Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (down 6.8%) and mining and quarrying (down 0.3%) fell in the three-month period. Whereas manufacturing (up 0.3%) and water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities (up 2.1%) grew over this three-month period.

Manufacturing output grew by 0.5% in June 2025, with 8 of the 13 subsectors showing growth. This follows an unrevised fall of 1.0% in May 2025 and no growth in April 2025 (revised up from a fall of 0.7% in our previous publication).

The largest positive contribution came from a growth of 8.8% in the manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products, following a fall of 0.3% in May 2025. The manufacture of food products, beverages and tobacco also grew in June 2025, by 0.4%, following a fall of 0.5% in May 2025.

The largest negative contribution within manufacturing came from the manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations, which fell by 1.1% in June 2025, following a fall of 6.4% in May 2025.

Figure 7 shows both the monthly and three-month contributions to manufacturing output from each of the manufacturing sub-sectors.

Looking more broadly, manufacturing output rose by 0.3% in the three months to June 2025, compared with the three months to March 2025, with 5 of the 13 subsectors growing over this period. The growth in this period was largely driven by the manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations (up 7.0%), and the manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c (up 3.0%).

These growths were partially offset by falls in the manufacture of basic metals and metal products (down 1.8%) and other manufacturing and repair (down 2.0%).

Our Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 72.9% of the production sector by industry weight. The turnover response rate for the MBS element of the production sector was 89.0% in June 2025. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses from businesses are received. Any new data will be included in future monthly gross domestic product (GDP) releases, in line with our National Accounts revision policy. For context, the average turnover response rate for the production sector in 2023 and 2024 now both stand at 97.7%. A full set of data sources used in monthly GDP can be found in our GDP(o) data sources catalogue.

More detailed breakdowns on production are available in our Index of Production, UK: June 2025 release.

Monthly construction output is estimated to have grown by 0.3% in June 2025. This follows a fall of 0.5% in May 2025 (revised up from a fall of 0.6% in our previous publication) and an increase of 0.9% in April 2025 (revised up from growth of 0.8% in our previous publication). The increase in monthly output in June 2025 came solely from an increase in repair and maintenance (up 1.2%), as new work decreased by 0.4%.

Five out of the nine sectors saw increases in June 2025. At the sector level, the main contributors to the monthly increase were private housing repair and maintenance and non-housing repair and maintenance, which grew by 3.7% and 0.8%, respectively.

Construction output is estimated to have increased by 1.2% in the three months to June 2025 compared with the three months to March 2025. New work increased by 1.1% over the period, and repair and maintenance grew by 1.4%. Within new work, the largest positive contributor came from infrastructure new work, which grew by 3.2%. In repair and maintenance, the largest positive contributor came from private housing repair and maintenance, which grew by 3.3%.

Figure 9 shows both the monthly and three-month contributions to construction output from each of the construction sectors.

Construction data are sourced from our Monthly Business Survey (MBS). For June 2025, the survey turnover response rate for construction was 77.8%. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received and any new data will be included in future monthly gross domestic product (GDP) releases. For context, the average turnover response rates in 2022 and 2023 now stand at 94.8% and 95.4%, respectively, while the average response rate for 2024 is 95.6%.

Further detail on construction output growth rates can be found in our Construction output in Great Britain: June 2025 release.

There were some common themes that were anecdotally reported (as part of the Office for National Statistics Monthly Business Surveys) to have contributed to performance across different industries in June 2025. However, it is difficult to quantify the exact impact.

Increased demand for military-related products was evident in some parts of manufacturing in June 2025. Businesses that manufacture “computer and electronic products”, “weapons and ammunitions”, “boats and ships”, and “aircraft” all provided comments related to this. Please note that these industries contributed 0.06 percentage points to overall GDP growth in June 2025, and other factors would have also contributed to the performance of these industries in this period.

Electric vehicles were also cited as a reason for increased activity in June 2025 for parts of the economy. Car sales saw monthly growth in June 2025 with evidence from a range of businesses that there was an increase in electric vehicles sales. This is further supported by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Trades who reported one in four sales in June 2025 were for electric vehicles. Increased demand for electric vehicles was also reported in the rental and leasing activities industry and, despite falling on the month, some parts of motor vehicle manufacturing also cited electric vehicles as seeing an increase in activity.

This release gives revisions for May 2025 for the first time, with April 2025 also open for revisions taking on late and updated source data since our last publication on 11 July 2025.

The upwards revision to production in April 2025 is largely because of updated survey responses in the manufacturing sector, particularly in manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations industry. While the downwards revision in May 2025 is mainly because of updated source data for the electric power generation, transmission and distribution industry.

The upwards revisions in services in April 2025 is predominantly because of higher quality quarterly data replacing initial monthly estimates in the human health activities industry.

The revisions to construction in both April 2025 and May 2025 are from late and updated survey responses.

The level of accuracy of growth rates in these statistics is one decimal place. While growth rates can be calculated to more than one decimal place using our Monthly GDP and main sectors to four decimal places dataset, where a series is estimated to have shown no growth over a period, looking at further decimal places to gauge a direction is not recommended because of increasing levels of uncertainty.

Further information on measuring the data across our main data sources is available in the following releases:

• Index of Services, UK: June 2025

• Index of Production, UK: June 2025

• Construction output in Great Britain: June 2025

The main data source for these statistics is the Monthly Business Survey (MBS) and response rates for each can be found below:

• Index of Services response rates

• Index of Production response rates

• Construction response rates

The Monthly GDP data sources catalogue provides a full breakdown of the data used in this publication.

In the UK, we produce estimates of monthly and quarterly GDP. Monthly estimates of GDP are based on only the output measure of GDP, while quarterly estimates of GDP reflect the average of the three approaches (output, income and expenditure).

Estimates for the construction industry within monthly GDP will differ to those published in the construction output release as they account for both the outputs produced and inputs consumed by the industry. There are also some coverage differences given the use of the Annual Business Survey in their compilation.

Consumer facing services industry classification

The industry breakdown used for consumer-facing services is based on the UK Standard Industrial Classification (SIC).

The following list contains the full SIC names of industries included in consumer facing services:

• Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles

• Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles

• Rail transport

• Accommodation

• Food and beverage service activities

• Buying and selling, renting and operating of own or leased real estate, excluding imputed rental

• Veterinary activities

• Travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities

• Gambling and betting services

• Sports activities and amusement and recreation activities

• Activities of membership organisations

• Other personal service activities

• Activities of households as employers of domestic personnel

Intermediate consumption in early estimates of monthly GDP

Monthly GDP measures the gross value added (GVA) of each industry in the economy. GVA is derived as the industries output minus its intermediate consumption, where output is the value of goods and services produced and intermediate consumption is the value of goods and services purchased to be used in the production of goods and services.

Estimates of intermediate consumption are only collected annually. For most industries, our monthly estimates are based on deflated turnover or volume estimates of output as a proxy for GVA. Complete estimates of GVA are calculated as part of our annual blue book process, here both output and intermediate consumption are measured. The annual process for calculating estimates of GVA is described in our Double deflation and the supply use framework in the UK National Accounts article.

The main assumption this proxy approach makes is that the relationship between output and intermediate consumption remains the same past the last year where annual GVA estimates are available. Therefore, the extent to which this proves not to be the case is one cause of revision between our early estimates of GVA and the fully balanced annual estimates. This relationship can be represented by the intermediate consumption ratio or IC ratio. This is the intermediate consumption of an industry divided by its output. The last year where annual GVA estimates are available is 2022 and the intermediate consumption ratios for each section are shown in the table below.

When the annual data for 2023 are available, if the observed IC ratio of an industry is higher, it requires more product inputs to create the same amount of output, and hence GVA (other things equal) will be lower. We therefore expect an increase in the IC ratio of an industry to be associated with a downward revision in GVA growth. Similarly, a lower IC ratio in the most recent year would be associated with an increase in the GVA growth rate.

The annual 2023 data will be included for the first time in our GDP Quarterly national accounts, UK: April to June 2025 published on 30 September 2025 and the GDP Monthly estimate UK: August 2025 on 16 October.

These accredited official statistics were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in March 2015. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled 'accredited official statistics'.

Quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in the Gross domestic product (GDP) QMI.

Monthly growth rates can be volatile. This indicator should therefore be used with caution and alongside other measures, such as the three-month growth rate, when looking for an indicator of the medium-term trend of the economy. However, it is useful in highlighting one-off changes that can be masked by three-month growth rates.

Pausing of producer prices publications

We have used business prices data with corrected chain linking methods in the monthly GDP dataset for producer price indices (PPI), import prices indices (IPI) and export price indices (EPI) from January 2025 onwards.

We have included correctly chain linked service producer price indices (SPPI) in our monthly GDP dataset from April 2025 onwards. The quarterly SPPI estimates are splined to months for use in monthly GDP calculations.

In addition, we have used the construction output price indices calculated using the corrected PPI and SPPI data from April 2025 onwards in the monthly GDP dataset.

We will manage the full implementation of updated business prices data in line with the national accounts revision policy. We will include the full time series update in our GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: April to June 2025 release on 30 September 2025 and Blue Book 2025 publication.

Further information on the chain linking error in the producer prices dataset are detailed in our Growth rates of selected output and input Producer Price Indices and Services Producer Price Indices: December 2019 to April 2025 article published on 10 July 2025.

Seasonal adjustment

The monthly estimates of GDP are seasonally adjusted. Seasonal adjustment is the process of removing the variations associated with the time of year, or the arrangement of the calendar, from a data time series.

GDP estimates, as for many data time series, are difficult to analyse using raw data because seasonal effects dominate short-term movements. Identifying and removing the seasonal component leaves the trend and irregular components.

The ONS uses the X-13-ARIMA-SEATS approach to seasonal adjustment. Seasonal adjustment parameters are monitored closely and regularly reviewed. For more information, please see our seasonal adjustment methodology page.

In our monthly GDP estimates seasonal adjustment is applied at the industry level and the seasonally adjusted series are aggregated to create estimates by sector and total output. As part of our quality assurance approach, residual seasonality checks are regularly completed by our time series analysis team on both the directly seasonally adjusted series and also the indirectly derived aggregate time series.

This topic is explored further in our Assessing residual seasonality in published outputs article published 09 May 2025.