GDP monthly estimate, UK: August 2025

• Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.3% in the three months to August 2025 compared with the three months to May 2025, a slight increase following growth of 0.2% in the three months to July 2025.
• Services output grew by 0.4% in the three months to August 2025, compared with the three months to May 2025; this is unchanged after also growing by 0.4% in the three months to July 2025.
• Production output fell by 0.3% in the three months to August 2025, compared with the three months to May 2025; this is a smaller decrease than in the three months to July 2025, when it fell by 1.4% (revised down from a fall of 1.3% in our previous publication).
• Construction output increased by 0.3% in the three months to August 2025, compared with the three months to May 2025, a smaller increase than the growth of 0.5% in the three months to July 2025 (revised down from 0.6% in our previous publication).
• Monthly GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.1% in August 2025, following a fall of 0.1% in July 2025 (revised down from no growth in our previous bulletin) and a growth of 0.4% in June 2025.
• Production grew by 0.4% in August 2025, whereas services showed no growth and construction fell by 0.3% in August.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.3% in the three months to August 2025, compared with the three months to May 2025. This follows a growth of 0.2% in the three months to July 2025 and a growth of 0.3% in the three months to June 2025.

There was growth in two of the three main sectors in the three months to August 2025. A rise of 0.4% in the services sector made the largest contribution to the increase in GDP during this period. Construction output also grew, by 0.3%, while production output fell by 0.3% over this period.

This release includes revisions to July 2025 estimates for the first time. It also incorporates revisions from January 1997 to June 2025 estimates, in line with our quarterly national accounts published on 30 September 2025. These revisions are consistent with Blue Book 2025, in line with Section 4: Monthly data of the National Accounts Revisions Policy.

Early estimates of GDP are subject to revision (both positive and negative) in future bulletins. Please see our Why GDP figures are revised article for more information.

Monthly real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.1% in August 2025, following a revised fall of 0.1% in July 2025 (revised down from no growth in our previous publication). Production grew by 0.4% in August, whereas services showed no growth and construction fell by 0.3% in August 2025.

Over the longer term, GDP is estimated to have grown by 1.5% in the three months to August 2025, compared with the same three months a year ago. Over this period, services grew by 1.8%, construction grew by 1.3%, and production fell by 0.4%.

GDP is estimated to be 1.3% higher in August 2025, compared with the same month a year ago.

In this bulletin, we continue to lead with the three-month-on-three-month growth rates. For more information on this please see our GDP: Getting the best insight each month blog post.

Services output grew by 0.4% in the three months to August 2025, compared with the three months to May 2025. It was the main contributor to gross domestic product (GDP) growth over this period, following growth of 0.4% in the three months to July 2025.

Figure 3: Services grew by 0.4% in the three months to August 2025, and has shown growth in every three-month period since January 2024

Monthly index and three-month-on-three-month growth rates for the services sector

There was a rise in output in 10 of the 14 subsectors in the three months to August 2025. The largest positive contributions at the subsector level were:

• human health and social work activities (up 1.4%), because of growth in human health activities (up 1.7%)
• administrative and support service activities (up 1.4%), caused by rental and leasing activities (up 8.0%)
• professional, scientific and technical activities (up 0.6%), because of architectural and engineering activities; technical testing and analysis (up 3.9%)

Growth over the three months to August 2025 was partially offset by falls in:

• wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (down 0.9%)
• other service activities (down 2.3%)
• education (down 0.3%)

Services output is estimated to have experienced no growth in August 2025. This is the second consecutive month in which services has shown no growth, after also doing so in July 2025 (revised down from 0.1% growth in our previous bulletin). 7 of the 14 subsectors showed growth in August 2025.

The largest positive contribution to services growth in August 2025 came from administrative and support service activities which grew by 1.0%. This was mainly caused by a 5.3% increase in rental and leasing activities. This subsector saw its largest period of growth since July 2020. It has now grown for the last nine consecutive months, in line with widespread growth in this industry.

Human health and social work activities was the second-largest contributor to services growth in August 2025. Output increased in this subsector by 0.4% during the month, and there was growth in both market and non-market sectors.

The largest negative contribution at the subsector level in August 2025 came from wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, where output fell by 0.5%, this fall was driven by a 2.0% decrease in wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles.

Output also decreased in arts, entertainment and recreation (down 2.4%) and transport and storage (down 0.7%) in August 2025.

Consumer-facing services

Consumer-facing services output decreased by 0.6% in the three months to August 2025, compared with the three months to May 2025. The largest negative contributions in this period came from:

• travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities (down 7.6%)
• other personal service activities (down 3.4%)
• buying and selling, renting and operating of own or leased real estate, excluding imputed rent (down 1.0%)

The largest partially offsetting increase came from accommodation, which grew by 2.5%.

Output in consumer-facing services saw growth of 0.1% in August 2025, following no growth in July 2025. The largest positive contributions at the industry level came from food and beverage service activities (up 1.5%) and retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles (up 0.5%), while the largest negative contributions came from buying and selling, renting and operating of own or leased real estate, excluding imputed rent (down 0.6%) and sports activities and amusement and recreation activities (down 2.8%).

More information is available in the August 2025 edition of our Consumer-facing services dataset.

An overview of data sources used in our estimates of service output can be found in our GDP(o) data sources catalogue. Our Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 43.3% of the services sector by industry weight. The turnover response rate for the MBS element of the services sector was 87.6% in August 2025. We would expect this to increase over time, as more responses are received. Any new data will be included in future monthly GDP releases. For context, the average turnover response rates for the service sector in 2023 and 2024 now stand at 97.5% and 97.6%, respectively.

More detailed breakdowns on services are available in our Index of Services, UK: August 2025 bulletin.

In the three months to August 2025, compared with the three months to May 2025, production output is estimated to have fallen by 0.3%, following a revised fall of 1.4% in the three months to July 2025 (revised down from a fall of 1.3% in our previous bulletin).

This fall was a result of a 2.6% decrease in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply. The water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities subsector, and the mining and quarrying subsector both grew in the three months to August 2025, increasing by 1.0% and 0.2%, respectively. Manufacturing, the largest production subsector, showed no growth in the three months to August 2025.

Figure 6: Production output fell by 0.3% in the three months to August 2025, its fourth consecutive three-monthly fall

Monthly index and three-month-on-three-month growth rates for index of production

On the month, production output is estimated to have risen by 0.4% in August 2025, following a revised fall of 0.4% in July 2025 (revised up from a fall of 0.9% in our previous bulletin). The increase in output in August 2025 was mainly caused by manufacturing output, which grew by 0.7%. Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply grew by 0.4%, and water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities grew by 0.3%. These increases were partially offset by a 2.3% fall in mining and quarrying.

Figure 7: Production sectors monthly indexes and three-monthly growth rates

Monthly index and three-month-on-three-month growth rates for the production sectors

Notes:

1. Indexes are rounded to one decimal place.
2. Weights for these subsectors are available in our GDP(O) data sources catalogue.

Manufacturing output

Over the three-month period, manufacturing output showed no growth in the three months to August 2025, compared with the three months to May 2025, with output in 6 of the 13 subsectors decreasing over this period. The largest negative contributors were:

• manufacture of chemicals and chemical products (down 4.6%); all six industries in this subsector fell, with the manufacture of soap and detergents, cleaning and polishing, perfumes and toilet preparations (down 5.8%) having the largest negative contribution
• manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations (down 1.6%)
• manufacture of rubber and plastics products, and other non-metallic mineral products (down 2.1%)

These falls were offset by growth elsewhere. The largest positive contributions were:

• manufacturing of computer, electronic and optical products (up 4.8%)
• manufacture of machinery and equipment not elsewhere classified (n.e.c) (up 1.4%)
• manufacture of electrical equipment (up 2.6%)

Manufacturing output grew by 0.7% in August 2025, with output increasing in 8 of the 13 subsectors. This follows a fall of 1.1% in July 2025 and a rise of 1.0% in June 2025.

The largest positive contribution came from a rise of 3.0% in the manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations, following a fall of 3.7% in July 2025. There were also increases in output for the manufacture of:

• machinery and equipment n.e.c. (up 2.0%)
• basic metals and metal products (up 1.1%)
• chemicals and chemical products (up 2.0%)

Figure 8 shows both the three-month and monthly contributions to manufacturing output from each of the manufacturing subsectors.

Our Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 71.2% of the production sector by industry weight. The turnover response rate for the MBS element of the production sector was 85.7% in August 2025. We would expect this to increase over time, as more responses from businesses are received. Any new data will be included in future monthly gross domestic product (GDP) releases, in line with our National Accounts Revisions Policy. For context, the average turnover response rate for the production sector in 2023 and 2024 now stand at 97.7% and 97.8%, respectively. A full set of data sources used in our monthly GDP bulletin can be found in our GDP(o) data sources catalogue.

More detailed breakdowns on production are available in our Index of Production, UK: August 2025 bulletin.

Construction output is estimated to have increased by 0.3% in the three months to August 2025 compared with the three months to May 2025. Repair and maintenance increased by 1.3%, and new work fell by 0.4% over the period. Within repair and maintenance, the largest positive contributor came from private housing repair and maintenance which grew by 5.6%. In new work, the largest negative contributor came from private housing new work, which fell by 1.8%.

Figure 9: Construction output grew by 0.3% in the three months to August 2025, compared with the three months to May 2025

Monthly index and three-month-on-three-month growth rates for the construction sector

Monthly construction output is estimated to have fallen by 0.3% in August 2025, after showing no growth in July 2025 (revised down from 0.2% growth in our previous bulletin).

The decrease in monthly output in August 2025 came solely from a decrease in repair and maintenance (1.5%), as new work increased by 0.5% on the month. At the sector level, the main contributor to the monthly decrease was private housing repair and maintenance, which fell by 4.3%.

Figure 10: Repair and maintenance increased, while new work decreased in the three months to August 2025

Monthly index and three-month-on-three-month growth rates of the construction subsectors

Figure 11 shows both the monthly and three-month contributions to construction output from each of the construction sectors.

Construction data are sourced from our monthly business survey. For August 2025, the survey turnover response rate for construction was 79.9%. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received and any new data will be included in future monthly gross domestic product (GDP) releases. For context, the average turnover response rates in 2022 and 2023 now stand at 94.8% and 95.4%, respectively, while the average response rate for 2024 is 95.7%.

Further detail on construction output growth rates can be found in our Construction output in Great Britain: August 2025 bulletin.

In August 2025, we saw weakness across of range of industries that manufacture products used by the construction industry. These included mining and quarrying, as well as the manufacture of:

• glass
• cement, plaster and concrete
• iron and steel
• wood

The Minerals Products Association also discussed this weakness in cement production, stating that UK cement production levels have fallen to a 75-year low.

This weakness supports the monthly fall in construction output in August 2025. Construction output grew over the three months to August 2025 but at a slower rate than over the three months to July 2025.

This release includes revisions to July 2025 for the first time and also incorporates revisions from January 1997 to June 2025, in line with our quarterly national accounts published on 30 September 2025. This is consistent with Blue Book 2025 and in line with Section 4: Monthly data of the National Accounts Revisions Policy.

Table 1 shows the revisions to monthly gross domestic product (GDP) and its main sectors from January 2025 to July 2025 since our last release on 12 September 2025.

The downwards revision to services growth in July 2025 is largely because of the scientific research and development industry. As reported in our Blue Book 2025: Globalisation article, this industry has seen some businesses reclassified to the manufacture of basic pharmaceutical productions and pharmaceutical preparations industry.

The upwards revision to production in July 2025 is largely because of updated data in the extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas industry. Manufacturing has also been revised up from a 1.3% fall to a fall of 1.1% in July 2025.

The downwards revision to construction in July 2025 are because of late and updated monthly survey data.

The level of accuracy of growth rates in these statistics is one decimal place. While growth rates can be calculated to more than one decimal place using our Monthly gross domestic product (GDP) and main sectors to four decimal places dataset, where a series is estimated to have shown no growth over a period, looking at further decimal places to gauge a direction is not recommended because of increasing levels of uncertainty.

Further information on measuring the data across our main data sources is available in:

• our Index of Services, UK: August 2025 bulletin
• our Index of Production, UK: August 2025 bulletin
• our Construction output in Great Britain: August 2025 bulletin

The main data source for these statistics is the monthly business survey (MBS) and response rates for each can be found in:

• our Index of Services response rates
• our Index of Production response rates
• our Construction response rates

Our Monthly GDP(o) data sources catalogue provides a full breakdown of the data used in this bulletin.

In the UK, we produce estimates of monthly and quarterly GDP. Monthly estimates of GDP are based on only the output measure of GDP, while quarterly estimates of GDP reflect the average of the three approaches (output, income and expenditure).

Estimates for the construction industry in our monthly GDP bulletin will differ to those published in our construction output bulletin, as they account for both the outputs produced and inputs consumed by the industry. There are also some coverage differences, given the use of the Annual Business Survey in their compilation.

Consumer facing services industry classification

The industry breakdown used for consumer-facing services is based on the UK Standard Industrial Classification (SIC).

The following list contains the full SIC names of industries included in consumer facing services:

• Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles
• Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles
• Rail transport
• Accommodation
• Food and beverage service activities
• Buying and selling, renting and operating of own or leased real estate, excluding imputed rental
• Veterinary activities
• Travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities
• Gambling and betting services
• Sports activities and amusement and recreation activities
• Activities of membership organisations
• Other personal service activities
• Activities of households as employers of domestic personnel

Intermediate consumption in early estimates of monthly GDP

Monthly GDP measures the gross value added (GVA) of each industry in the economy. GVA is derived as the industries output minus its intermediate consumption, where output is the value of goods and services produced and intermediate consumption is the value of goods and services purchased to be used in the production of goods and services.

Estimates of intermediate consumption are only collected annually. For most industries, our monthly estimates are based on deflated turnover or volume estimates of output as a proxy for GVA. Complete estimates of GVA are calculated as part of our annual blue book process, where both output and intermediate consumption are measured. The annual process for calculating estimates of GVA is described in our Double deflation and the supply and use framework in the UK National Accounts article.

The main assumption this proxy approach makes is that the relationship between output and intermediate consumption remains the same past the last year where annual GVA estimates are available. Therefore, the extent to which this proves not to be the case is one cause of revision between our early estimates of GVA and the fully balanced annual estimates. This relationship can be represented by the intermediate consumption ratio or IC ratio. This is the intermediate consumption of an industry divided by its output. The last year where annual GVA estimates are available is 2023, and the intermediate consumption ratios for each section are shown in Table 2.

When the annual data for 2024 are available, if the observed IC ratio of an industry is higher, it requires more product inputs to create the same amount of output, and hence GVA (other things equal) will be lower. We therefore expect an increase in the IC ratio of an industry to be associated with a downward revision in GVA growth. Similarly, a lower IC ratio in the most recent year would be associated with an increase in the GVA growth rate.

Non-market education output methodology

School attendance data is used as our source to estimate education output by the non-market sector. Education is considered to be provided across the whole year and so school holidays, or school leavers, do not reduce output over the summer. As attendance levels are not available over the summer, the June 2025 value will be carried forward. When data are available for September 2025, the July and August 2025 estimates will be recalculated based on the change in attendance between June and September.

Strengths and limitations

These accredited official statistics were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in March 2015. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled “accredited official statistics”.

Quality and methodology information (QMI) on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in our Gross domestic product (GDP) QMI.

Monthly growth rates can be volatile. This indicator should therefore be used with caution and alongside other measures, such as the three-month growth rate, when looking for an indicator of the medium-term trend of the economy. However, it is useful in highlighting one-off changes that can be masked by three-month growth rates.

Retail sales seasonal adjustment

During our scheduled annual review of Retail sales seasonal adjustment, as part of our quality assurance, we identified a problem with a file used in our seasonal adjustment model to adjust for our survey reference periods not aligning precisely with calendar months. Further details and a full time series using the correct seasonal adjustment model can be found in our Retail Sales, Great Britain: July 2025 bulletin.

This monthly GDP release includes the corrected retail sales data for the full time series.

Pausing of producer prices publications

Business prices data with corrected chain linking methods have been used in the monthly GDP dataset for producer price indices (PPI), import prices indices (IPI) export price indices (EPI), and service producer price indices (SPPI) for all periods in this release. The quarterly SPPI estimates are splined to months for use in monthly GDP calculations.

Any further updates to price data following the restart of the monthly business prices publication will be incorporated in GDP estimates in line with our National Accounts Revisions Policy.

Further information on the chain linking error in the producer prices dataset are detailed in our Methods update for PPI and SPPI, published on 10 July 2025.

Seasonal adjustment

The monthly estimates of GDP are seasonally adjusted. Seasonal adjustment is the process of estimating and removing the variations associated with the time of year, or the arrangement of the calendar, from a data time series.

GDP estimates, as for many data time series, are difficult to analyse using just raw data because seasonal effects can dominate short-term movements. Identifying and removing the seasonal component leaves the trend and irregular components.

We use the X-13-ARIMA-SEATS approach to seasonal adjustment. Seasonal adjustment parameters are monitored closely and regularly reviewed. For more information, please see our seasonal adjustment methodology page.

In our monthly GDP estimates, seasonal adjustment is applied at the industry level and the seasonally adjusted series are aggregated to create estimates by sector and total output. As part of our quality assurance approach, residual seasonality checks are regularly completed by our time series analysis team on both the directly seasonally adjusted series and also the indirectly derived aggregate time series.

This topic is explored further in Section 6 of our Assessing residual seasonality in published outputs article updated on 30 September 2025.