GDP monthly estimate, UK: June 2024

• Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have shown no growth in June 2024, following unrevised growth of 0.4% in May 2024.
• Real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.6% in the three months to June 2024, compared with the three months to March 2024 with widespread growth in the services sector driving growth in this period.
• Services output fell by 0.1% in June 2024, following unrevised growth of 0.3% in May 2024, but grew by 0.8% in the three months to June 2024.
• Production output grew by 0.8% in June 2024, following growth of 0.3% in May 2024 (revised up from 0.2% in our last publication), but fell by 0.1% in the three months to June 2024.
• Construction output grew by 0.5% in June 2024, following growth of 1.7% in May 2024 (revised down from 1.9% in our last publication), but fell by 0.1% in the three months to June 2024.
• There are revisions to April and May 2024 in this monthly release in accordance with the National Accounts revision policy; data revisions up to 2022, as announced in our Blue Book 2024: Advanced aggregate estimates release, and any additional updates to data from 2023 onwards, will be published in our monthly GDP release on 11 October 2024.

Real gross domestic product is estimated to have grown by 0.6% in the three months to June 2024 compared with the three months to March 2024. Services output was the main contributor with growth of 0.8%, partially offset by production and construction output, both falling by 0.1% in the same period.

On a quarterly basis, this gives growth of 0.6% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2024, following growth of 0.7% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2024. For further detail, see our GDP first quarterly estimate, UK: April to June 2024 bulletin published on the same day.

Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have shown no growth in June 2024, following unrevised growth of 0.4% in May 2024.

There are revisions to April and May 2024 in this monthly release in accordance with the National Accounts revision policy. It is important to note that early estimates of GDP are subject to revision (positive and negative), please see our Why GDP figures are revised article for more information.

Data revisions up to 2022, as announced in our Blue Book 2024: Advanced aggregate estimates are not included in this release. These revisions, and any additional updates to data from 2023 onwards, will be published in our monthly GDP release on 11 October 2024. For more information on Blue Book 2024, please see Section 10: Data sources and quality.

Services output fell by 0.1% in June 2024, after five consecutive monthly increases in this sector. This fall was offset by growth of 0.8% in production output and growth of 0.5% in construction output.

Looking over the longer term, GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.9% in the three months to June 2024 compared with the three months to June 2023, and estimated to have grown by 0.7% in June 2024 compared with the same month last year.

When considering growth comparisons involving May 2023, it is worth noting that there was an additional bank holiday for the coronation of King Charles III on Monday 8 May 2023. There was no explicit adjustment for this ad hoc event, though adjustments are made for regular calendar effects. However, the timing of the bank holiday indirectly affects the number of trading days, which could affect GDP estimates positively or negatively, depending on the sector.

Overall, the services sector is estimated to have grown by 0.8% in the three months to June 2024 compared with the three months to March 2024. Output increased across 11 of the 14 subsectors during this period.

Professional, scientific and technical activities was the largest positive contributor to the rise in services output in this three-month period, growing by 2.5% in the three months to June 2024. The next largest contributions came from information and communication, which grew by 1.7% and transportation and storage, up 2.2%.

On the month, services output is estimated to have fallen by 0.1% in June 2024, following five consecutive months of growth, with 7 of the 14 services subsectors falling in June 2024. Figure 3 shows both the monthly and the three-month contributions from the services sector to GDP growth in June 2024.

The largest negative contribution at the subsector level in services in June 2024 came from the wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles subsector, which fell by 1.0%. This was driven by a fall of 1.2% in the retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles industry, following growth of 2.9% in May 2024. Please see our Retail Sales, Great Britain: June 2024 bulletin for more information on this industry’s monthly movements. There was also a fall of 1.1%, in the wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles industry, in June 2024.

The human health and social work activities subsector also contributed negatively to the month, falling by 0.9% in June 2024. This was the result of a 1.5% fall in human health activities. NHS junior doctors held industrial action (27 June to 2 July) and NHS England reported that 61,989 acute inpatient and outpatient appointments were cancelled because of industrial action by junior doctors.

The largest positive contribution to services growth in June 2024 came from professional, scientific and technical activities, up 1.0%, its fifth consecutive monthly growth, mainly caused by growth of 4.5% in legal activities.

An overview of data sources used in our estimates of service output can be found in our data sources catalogue. The Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 42.9% of the services sector by industry weight. In June 2024, the turnover response rate for the MBS element of the services sector was 85.1%. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received, and any new data will be included in future monthly GDP releases. For context, the average turnover response rates for the service sector in 2022 and 2023 now stand at 97.0% and 97.4%, respectively.

Consumer-facing services

Consumer-facing services fell by 0.1% in the three months to June 2024 compared with the three months to March 2024. The main causes of the decrease were a 1.2% decline in buying and selling, renting and operating of own or leased real estate, and a fall of 1.4% in wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles. The largest positive contributor was food and beverage service activities, which grew by 1.1% in the quarter.

Output in consumer-facing services fell by 0.7% in June 2024, following growth of 0.7% in May 2024 (revised down from growth of 0.8% in our last publication). The main causes of the decline in June 2024 were falls of 1.2% in retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles (more information can be found in our Retail sales, Great Britain: June 2024 bulletin), a 3.3% fall in the other personal service activities industry and a 4.0% decline in accommodation. The largest positive contribution came from buying and selling, renting and operating of own or leased real estate, which grew by 0.3% in June 2024. More information on consumer-facing services data is available in our Consumer-facing Services June 2024 dataset.

More detailed breakdowns on services are available in the Index of Services, UK: June 2024.

Production output is estimated to have fallen by 0.1% in the three months to June 2024 compared with the three months to March 2024. This was driven by a 0.6% fall in manufacturing output in this period, while mining and quarrying also fell, by 0.8%. These falls were partially offset by a growth of 2.5% in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply and a 2.2% growth in water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities in the three months to June.

On the month, production output is estimated to have grown by 0.8% in June 2024, following growth of 0.3% in May 2024 (revised up from 0.2% in our last publication). The largest contribution to the growth in June 2024 was a 1.1% growth in manufacturing. Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply and water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities also grew, up 1.6% and 0.2%, respectively. These were partially offset by a fall of 4.0% in mining and quarrying.

Electricity, gas steam and air conditioning supply output grew by 1.6% in June 2024, following a growth of 1.0% in May 2024, with growth of 2.9% in electric power generation, transmission and distribution, partially offset by a 4.7% fall in the manufacture of gas; distribution of gaseous fuels through mains; steam and air conditioning supply.

Mining and quarrying output fell by 4.0% in June 2024, following a fall of 0.8% in May 2024. The fall in June 2024 was mainly caused by a 5.3% fall in extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas.

Water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities output grew by 0.2% in June 2024, following a fall of 0.3% in May 2024. Two of the four industries within the subsector grew in June 2024 with the largest contribution coming from growth of 1.3% in water collection, treatment and supply while there was also growth of 0.6% in waste collection, treatment and disposal activities and materials recovery. These were partially offset by falls of 1.6% in sewerage and 0.1% in remediation activities and other waste management services.

Manufacturing output grew by 1.1% in June 2024, and was the largest contributor to the growth in production output in the month, following growth of 0.3% in May 2024. There was growth across manufacturing in June 2024, with output increasing in 9 of the 13 subsectors. The largest positive contribution in June 2024 came from the manufacture of basic metals and metal products, which grew by 2.6% with all three industries in this subsection growing on the month. The manufacture of machinery and equipment and the manufacture of transport equipment also grew, by 3.9% and 1.5%, respectively. The largest negative contribution within manufacturing came from a fall of 0.6% in other manufacturing and repair in June 2024.

Figure 6 shows both the monthly and three-month contributions to manufacturing output from each of the manufacturing subsectors.

In June 2024, the turnover response rate for the MBS element of the production sector was 80.7%. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses from businesses are received and any new data will be included in future monthly gross domestic product (GDP) releases, in line with the National Accounts revision policy. For context, the average turnover response rates for the production sector in 2022 and 2023 now stand at 96.9% and 97.6%, respectively. A full set of data sources used in monthly GDP can be found in our data source catalogue.

More detailed breakdowns on production are available in our Index of Production, UK: June 2024 bulletin.

Construction output is estimated to have fallen by 0.1% in the three months to June 2024 compared with the three months to March 2024. New work decreased by 0.5% over the period, while repair and maintenance increased by 0.4%. Within new work, the largest contributor to the decrease came from public housing new work, which fell by 8.2%.

Monthly construction output is estimated to have increased by 0.5% in June 2024, which follows growth of 1.7% in May 2024 (revised down from growth of 1.9% in our last publication). The growth in June 2024 was mainly caused by increases of 0.9% in new work and 0.1% in repair and maintenance.

Seven out of the nine sectors saw growth in June 2024. At this sector level, the main contributors to the monthly increase were non-housing repair and maintenance, which increased by 3.2%, and private commercial new work, which increased by 2.1%, on the month.

Construction data are sourced from our monthly business survey. For June 2024, the survey turnover response rate for construction was 74.4%. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received, and any new data will be included in future monthly gross domestic product (GDP) releases. For context, the average turnover response rates in 2022 and 2023 now stand at 94.7% and 95.0%, respectively.

Further detail on construction output growth rates can be found in our Construction output in Great Britain: June 2024, new orders and Construction Output Price Indices, April to June 2024 bulletin.

There were some common themes that were anecdotally reported by businesses (as part of the Office for National Statistics (ONS) monthly surveys) to have played a part in performance across different industries. However, it is difficult to quantify the exact impact.

Comments provided for June 2024 suggested some industries may have been affected by the general election held on 4 July 2024. In a range of industries across the economy, businesses stated that customers were delaying placing orders until the outcome of the election was known. These comments covered all of manufacturing, construction, and services.

While perhaps not as frequently mentioned as in recent months, industrial action in certain industries was also cited as a possible reason for reduced output. This was stated as a reason for reduced output in human health with the junior doctors strikes towards the end of June, and in TV and film production where the Screen Actors Guild strikes in America in 2023 are still affecting UK production schedules.

Monthly growth in June 2024 was reported across a range of capital goods manufacturing industries. These included the manufacture of computer, electrical and optical products, the manufacture of machinery and equipment and the manufacture of transport equipment (motor vehicles, ships and boats and trains).

This release contains revisions to April and May 2024, it is important to note that early estimates of GDP are subject to revision (positive and negative), please see our Why GDP figures are revised article for more information.

Table 1 shows the revisions to monthly GDP and main sectors for April 2024 and May 2024 since the last monthly publication on 11 July 2024.

The upward revision to production in May 2024 came mainly from updated data for electric power generation, transmission and distribution while the downward revision in the construction sector came from late and updated Monthly Business Survey (MBS) data.

The revisions to production and construction output in April 2024 came from late and updated MBS data. While the downward services output revision in April was updated survey data in the professional scientific and technical activities subsector and quarterly service producer price indices (SPPI) data replacing forecasts for the deflators in the administrative and support service activities subsector.

The level of accuracy of growth rates in these statistics is one decimal place. While growth rates can be calculated to more than one decimal place using our Monthly GDP and main sectors data, where a series is estimated to have shown no growth over a period, looking at further decimal places to gauge a direction is not recommended because of increasing levels of uncertainty.

Further information on measuring the data across our main data sources is available in the following releases:

• our Index of Services, UK: June 2024 bulletin
• our Index of Production, UK: June 2024 bulletin
• our Construction output in Great Britain: June 2024, new orders and Construction Output Price Indices, April to June 2024 bulletin

The main data source for these statistics is the monthly business survey (MBS) and response rates for each can be found in:

• our Index of Services response rates dataset
• our Index of Production response rates dataset
• our Construction response rates dataset

Our Monthly GDP data sources catalogue (dataset) provides a full breakdown of the data used in this publication.

In the UK, we produce estimates of monthly and quarterly GDP. Monthly estimate of GDP are based on only the output measure of GDP, while quarterly estimates of GDP reflect the average of the three approaches (output, income and expenditure).

Estimates for the construction industry within monthly GDP will differ to those published in the construction output release as they account for both the outputs produced and inputs consumed by the industry. There are also some coverage differences given the use of the Annual Business Survey in their compilation.

Consumer-facing services industry classification

The industry breakdown used for consumer-facing services is based on the UK Standard Industrial Classification (SIC).

The following list contains the full SIC names of industries included in consumer-facing services:

• Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles
• Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles
• Rail transport
• Accommodation
• Food and beverage service activities
• Buying and selling, renting and operating of own or leased real estate, excluding imputed rental
• Veterinary activities
• Travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities
• Gambling and betting services
• Sports activities and amusement and recreation activities
• Activities of membership organisations
• Other personal service activities
• Activities of households as employers of domestic personnel

Bluebook 2024 publication update

The 2024 UK annual national accounts, also known as Blue Book 2024, will incorporate a number of methodological changes focused on data pertaining to recent years, along with the addition of more recent survey and administrative information.

On 7 August we published our Blue Book 2024: advanced aggregate estimates article to give users details of the impact of the 2024 UK national accounts update on current price and chained volumes measure estimates of GDP from 1997 to 2022.

This estimates 2022 for the first time using the supply and use tables (SUTs) framework, as well as improving the estimates of 2020 and 2021 with more recent data. We have also implemented outstanding classification decisions affecting the public sector, as well as improvements to the UK trade gas exports deflator. Additionally, we have updated the base year to 2022 after holding this fixed since the start of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

The next Quarterly National Accounts release on 30 September 2024 will incorporate these revisions, and any updates to 2023 onwards, in our official estimates in line with our National Accounts Revision Policy.

These will be incorporated into our monthly GDP estimates in our release on 11 October 2024.

Until the Blue Book 2024 data are incorporated into our monthly GDP estimates on 11 October 2024, our monthly GDP estimates will continue to have a reference and base year of 2019.

Strengths and limitations

These accredited official statistics were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in March 2015. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled “accredited official statistics”.

Quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in our Gross domestic product (GDP) QMI.

Monthly growth rates can be volatile. This indicator should therefore be used with caution and alongside other measures, such as the three-month growth rate, when looking for an indicator of the medium-term trend of the economy. However, it is useful in highlighting one-off changes that can be masked by three-month growth rates.