GDP monthly estimate, UK: July 2025

• Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.2% in the three months to July 2025 compared with the three months to April 2025, down from three-month-on-three-month growths of 0.3% in June 2025 and 0.6% in May 2025.

• Services output grew by 0.4% in the three months to July 2025, compared with the three months to April 2025, and was the main contributor to GDP growth over this period, after growing 0.4% in the three months to June 2025.

• Production output fell by 1.3% in the three months to July 2025, compared with the three months to April 2025, following a fall of 0.3% in the three months to June 2025.

• Construction output increased by 0.6% in the three months to July 2025, compared with the three months to April 2025, following growth of 1.2% in the three months to June 2025.

• Monthly GDP is estimated to have shown no growth in July 2025, following growth of 0.4% in June 2025 and a fall of 0.1% in May 2025.

• Services and construction both grew in July 2025, growing by 0.1% and 0.2% respectively, while production fell by 0.9% in July 2025.

Real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.2% in the three months to July 2025, compared with the three months to April 2025. This rate of growth has slowed since the peak of 0.8% growth in the three months to April 2025.

There was growth in two of the three main sectors in the three months to July 2025, with a rise of 0.4% in the services sector, which had the largest contribution to the increase in GDP during this period. Construction output also grew, by 0.6%, while production output fell by 1.3% over this period.

Note that early estimates of GDP are subject to revision in future publications (both positive and negative). Please see our Why GDP figures are revised article for more information.

Monthly real GDP is estimated to have shown no growth in July 2025, following a growth of 0.4% in June 2025. Services and construction output both increased in July 2025 by 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively, and production output is estimated to have fallen by 0.9% in July 2025.

Looking over the longer term, GDP is estimated to have grown by 1.2% in the three months to July 2025, compared with the same three months a year ago. Over this period services grew by 1.3%, construction grew by 1.8%, and production showed no growth.

Compared with the same month a year ago, GDP is estimated to be 1.4% higher in July 2025.

No previously published data are open for revision in this release in line with our national accounts revision policy. The full time series will be open for revision in our next release on 16 October 2025. This will include revisions published in the Retail sales, Great Britain: July 2025 release, revisions from Bluebook 2025, and the quarterly national accounts release on 30 September 2025. More information on these can be found in our data sources and quality and strengths and limitations sections.

In this monthly GDP statistical bulletin, we are leading with the three-month-on-three-month growth rates, for more information on this please see our blog.

The services sector is estimated to have grown by 0.4% in the three months to July 2025, compared with the three months to April 2025. Services was the main contributor to real GDP in the three months to July 2025.

Figure 3: Services grew by 0.4% in the three months to July 2025, compared with the three months to April 2025, after growing by 0.4% in the three months to June 2025

Monthly index and three-month growth rates for index of services

There was a rise in output in 10 of the 14 subsectors in three months to July 2025 with the largest positive contributions at the subsector level coming from:

• human health and social work activities (up 1.5%), because of growth in human health activities (up 2.5%)

• professional, scientific, and technical activities (up 1.2%), mainly caused by growth in legal activities (up 3.1%), and scientific research and development (up 3.4%)

• information and communication (up 1.4%), caused by growth in computer programming, consultancy, and related activities (up 3.2%)

Growth over the three months to July 2025 was partially offset by falls in:

• wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (down 1.3%), all three industries in this subsection fell over the three-month period

• education (down 0.2%)

• public administration and defence; compulsory social security (down 0.2%)

Services output is estimated to have grown by 0.1% in July 2025, this is the third consecutive monthly growth following increases of 0.3% in June 2025, and 0.1% in May 2025, with 7 of the 14 subsectors growing in July 2025.

The largest positive contribution to services growth in July 2025 came from the transportation and storage subsector, which grew by 1.4%. All six industries in this subsector grew in July 2025 with the largest contributions coming from an increase of 2.5% in warehousing and support activities for transportation and an increase of 0.8% in land transport services and transport services via pipelines, excluding rail transport.

Human health and social work activities was the second largest contributor to services growth in July 2025, with output increasing in this subsector by 0.4% in the month. This was mainly caused by human health activities (up 0.6%), with growth in both market and non-market sectors in July 2025.

Industrial action by resident doctors took place between 25 July 2025 and 30 July 2025, however, the NHS reported that thousands more appointments were protected during the doctor's strike between 25 July and 30 July, compared with the previous industrial action that took place between 27 June and 2 July 2024. There was also a 0.3% growth in residential care activities in July 2025. These increases were partially offset by a fall in social work activities without accommodation where output fell by 0.3%.

The largest negative contributions at the subsector level in July 2025 came from information and communication, where output fell by 0.7%. This fall was caused by a 5.6% decrease in motion picture, video and tv programme production, sound recording and music publishing activities.

Consumer-facing services

Consumer-facing services output decreased by 0.6% in the three months to July 2025, compared with the three months to April 2025. The largest negative contributions in this period came from:

• retail trade, excluding motor vehicles and motorcycles (down 0.9%)

• travel agency, tour operator, and other reservation service and related activities (down 9.1%)

While the largest partially offsetting increases came from accommodation and food beverage service activities, which grew by 1.7% and 0.6%, respectively.

Output in consumer-facing services saw no growth in July 2025, following growth of 0.2% in June 2025. The largest negative contributions at the industry level came from wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (down 1.4%), while the largest positive contribution came from retail trade, excluding motor vehicles and motorcycles (up 0.6%).

More information on Consumer-Facing Services data is available in our Consumer-Facing Services July 2025 dataset.

An overview of data sources used in our estimates of service output can be found in our GDP(o) data sources catalogue. Our Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 43.6% of the services sector by industry weight. The turnover response rate for the MBS element of the services sector was 84.5% in July 2025. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received. Any new data will be included in future monthly GDP releases. For context, the average turnover response rate for the service sector in 2023 and 2024 now both stand at 97.5%.

More detailed breakdowns on services are available in the Index of Services, UK: July 2025 release.

Production output is estimated to have fallen by 1.3% in the three months to July 2025, compared with the three months to April 2025, following a fall of 0.3% in the three months to June 2025.

The 1.3% decrease was mainly caused by a fall of 1.1% in manufacturing. There were also falls in electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply (down 5.1%), and mining and quarrying (down 1.8%) in the three-month period. Whereas water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities (up 1.6%) grew over this three-month period.

Figure 6: Production output fell by 1.3% in the three months to July 2025, following a fall of 0.3% in the three months to June 2025

Monthly index and three-month-on-three-month growth rates for index of production

On the month, production output is estimated to have fallen by 0.9% in July 2025, following growth of 0.7% in June 2025. The decrease in output was mainly caused by manufacturing output, which fell by 1.3%, while mining and quarrying fell by 2.0%. These falls were partially offset by increases in output in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply, and water supply; sewerage, waste management, and remediation activities, of 2.0% and 0.8%, respectively.

Figure 7: Production sectors three-monthly growth rates and monthly indexes

Monthly index and three-month-on-three-month growth rates for the production sectors

Notes

1. Indexes are rounded to one decimal place.

2. Weights of these sub-sectors are available in the GDP(O) data sources catalogue.

Manufacturing output

Manufacturing output fell by 1.1% in the three months to July 2025, compared with the three months to April 2025, with 9 of the 13 subsectors decreasing over this period. The largest contributors to this fall over the three months were:

• manufacture of basic metals and other metal products (down 2.7%), this is the tenth consecutive three-monthly decline; the fall in the three months to July was mainly caused by a reduced output in the manufacture of fabricated metal products industry (down 2.2%)

• other manufacturing and repair (down 2.5%)

• manufacture of transport equipment (down 1.4%), mainly caused by a fall in manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers, and semi-trailers (down 5.3%)

This fall was partially offset by a 2.3% rise in manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c. over the three months to July 2025.

Figure 8 shows both the three-month and monthly contributions to manufacturing output from each of the manufacturing sub-sectors.

Manufacturing output fell by 1.3% in July 2025, with output in 9 of the 13 subsectors also falling in July 2025. This follows a rise of 0.5% in June 2025 and a fall of 1.0% in May 2025.

The largest negative contribution came from a fall of 7.0% in the manufacturing of computer, electronic, and optical products, following a growth of 8.8% in June 2025. The manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations also fell in July 2025, by 4.5%, following a fall of 1.1% in June 2025.

The largest positive contribution within manufacturing came from the manufacture of electrical equipment, which increased by 3.3% in July 2025, following a fall of 0.5% in June 2025.

Our Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 72.9% of the production sector by industry weight. The turnover response rate for the MBS element of the production sector was 87.7% in July 2025. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses from businesses are received. Any new data will be included in future monthly gross domestic product (GDP) releases, in line with our National Accounts revision policy. For context, the average turnover response rate for the production sector in 2023 and 2024 now both stand at 97.7%. A full set of data sources used in monthly GDP can be found in our GDP(o) data sources catalogue.

More detailed breakdowns on production are available in our Index of Production, UK: July 2025 release.

Construction output is estimated to have increased by 0.6% in the three months to July 2025 compared with the three months to April 2025. New work increased by 1.0% over the period, and repair and maintenance grew by 0.1%. Within new work, the largest positive contributor came from infrastructure new work, which grew by 2.1%. In repair and maintenance (R&M) the largest positive contributor came from private housing R&M, which grew by 3.8%.

Figure 9: Construction output grew by 0.6% in the three months to July 2025, compared with the three months to April 2025

Monthly index and three-month-on-three-month growth rates for the construction sector

Monthly construction output is estimated to have grown by 0.2% in July 2025. This follows a rise of 0.3% in June 2025. The increase in monthly output came solely from an increase in new work (up 0.3%), as repair and maintenance showed no growth in the month. Five out of the nine sectors saw increases in July 2025. At the sector level, the main contributors to the monthly increase were private housing repair and maintenance, and private new housing, which grew by 2.4% and 1.2%, respectively.

Figure 10: Both new work and repair and maintenance increased in the three months to July 2025

Monthly index and three-month-on-three-month growth rates of the construction subsectors, July 2025

Figure 11 shows both the monthly and three-month contributions to construction output from each of the construction sectors.

Construction data are sourced from our monthly business survey. For July 2025, the survey turnover response rate for construction was 73.0%. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received, and any new data will be included in future monthly gross domestic product (GDP) releases. For context, the average turnover response rates in 2023 and 2024 now stand at 95.4% and 95.6%, respectively.

Further detail on construction output growth rates can be found in our Construction output in Great Britain: July 2025.

The level of accuracy of growth rates in these statistics is one decimal place. While growth rates can be calculated to more than one decimal place using our Monthly GDP and main sectors to four decimal places dataset, where a series is estimated to have shown no growth over a period, looking at further decimal places to gauge a direction is not recommended, because of increasing levels of uncertainty.

Further information on measuring the data across our main data sources is available in the following releases:

• Index of Services, UK: July 2025

• Index of Production, UK: July 2025

• Construction output in Great Britain: July 2025

The main data source for these statistics is the monthly business survey (MBS) and response rates for each can be found below:

• Index of Services response rates

• Index of Production response rates

• Construction response rates

The Monthly GDP data sources catalogue provides a full breakdown of the data used in this publication.

In the UK, we produce estimates of monthly and quarterly GDP. Monthly estimates of GDP are based on only the output measure of GDP, while quarterly estimates of GDP reflect the average of the three approaches (output, income, and expenditure).

Estimates for the construction industry within monthly GDP will differ to those published in the construction output release as they account for both the outputs produced and inputs consumed by the industry. There are also some coverage differences given the use of the Annual Business Survey in their compilation.

Consumer facing services industry classification

The industry breakdown used for consumer-facing services is based on the UK Standard Industrial Classification (SIC).

The following list contains the full SIC names of industries included in consumer facing services:

• wholesale and retail trade, and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles

• retail trade, excluding motor vehicles and motorcycles

• rail transport

• accommodation

• food and beverage service activities

• buying and selling, renting, and operating of own or leased real estate, excluding imputed rental

• veterinary activities

• travel agency, tour operator, and other reservation service and related activities

• gambling and betting services

• sports activities, and amusement and recreation activities

• activities of membership organisations

• other personal service activities

• activities of households as employers of domestic personnel

Intermediate consumption in early estimates of monthly GDP

Monthly GDP measures the gross value added (GVA) of each industry in the economy. GVA is derived as the industries output minus its intermediate consumption, where output is the value of goods and services produced, and intermediate consumption is the value of goods and services purchased to be used in the production of goods and services.

Estimates of intermediate consumption are only collected annually. For most industries, our monthly estimates are based on deflated turnover or volume estimates of output as a proxy for GVA. Complete estimates of GVA are calculated as part of our annual blue book process, here both output and intermediate consumption are measured. The annual process for calculating estimates of GVA is described in our Double deflation and the supply use framework in the UK National Accounts article.

The main assumption this proxy approach makes, is that the relationship between output and intermediate consumption remains the same past the last year where annual GVA estimates are available. Therefore, the extent to which this proves not to be the case is one cause of revision between our early estimates of GVA and the fully balanced annual estimates. This relationship can be represented by the intermediate consumption ratio or IC ratio. This is the intermediate consumption of an industry divided by its output. The last year where annual GVA estimates are available is 2022 and the intermediate consumption ratios for each section are shown in the table below.

When the annual data for 2023 are available, if the observed IC ratio of an industry is higher, it requires more product inputs to create the same amount of output, and hence GVA (other things equal) will be lower. We therefore expect an increase in the IC ratio of an industry to be associated with a downward revision in GVA growth. Similarly, a lower IC ratio in the most recent year would be associated with an increase in the GVA growth rate. 

The annual 2023 data will be included for the first time in our GDP Quarterly national accounts, UK: April to June 2025 published on 30 September 2025 and the GDP Monthly estimate UK: August 2025 on 16 October.

Non-market education output methodology

School attendance data is used as our source to estimate education output by the non-market sector. Education is considered to be provided across the whole year and so school holidays, or school leavers, do not reduce output over the summer. As attendance levels are not available over the summer, the June 2025 value will be carried forward. When data are available for September 2025, the July and August 2025 estimates will be recalculated based on the change in attendance between June and September.

Bluebook 2025 publication update

The 2025 annual UK National Accounts, also known as Blue Book 2025, will incorporate more recent survey and administrative information, together with methodological improvements to the full data time series. 

In addition, Blue Book 2025 includes a full time series of corrected Producer Price Indices (PPIs) and Services Producer Price Indices (SPPIs).

On 19 August 2025 we published our Blue Book 2025: advanced aggregate estimates article to give users details of the impact of the 2025 UK national accounts update on current price and chained volumes measure estimates of GDP from 1997 to 2023.

Data for 2023 will be estimated for the first time using the supply and use tables (SUTs) framework, and our estimates for 2021 and 2022 have been improved with updated data. The SUT framework looks at the supply of goods and services, how they are used in the economy, and their associated prices in detail. As part of this process, the base year in the Blue Book 2025 dataset has been updated to 2023.

The next quarterly National Accounts release on 30 September 2025 will incorporate these revisions, and any updates to 2023 onwards, in our official estimates in line with our National Accounts Revision Policy .

These will be incorporated into our monthly GDP estimates in our release on 16 October 2025.

Until the Blue Book 2025 data are incorporated into our monthly GDP estimates on 16 October 2025, our monthly GDP estimates will continue to have a reference and base year of 2022.

These accredited official statistics were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in March 2015. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled 'accredited official statistics'.

Quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in the Gross domestic product (GDP) QMI.

Monthly growth rates can be volatile. This indicator should therefore be used with caution and alongside other measures, such as the three-month growth rate, when looking for an indicator of the medium-term trend of the economy. However, it is useful in highlighting one-off changes that can be masked by three-month growth rates.

Retail sales seasonal adjustment

During our scheduled annual review of Retail sales seasonal adjustment, as part of our quality assurance, we identified a problem with a file used in our seasonal adjustment model to adjust for our survey reference periods not aligning precisely with calendar months. Further details and a full time series using the correct seasonal adjustment model can be found in our Retail Sales, Great Britain: July 2025 release.

This monthly GDP release includes the July 2025 retail sales growth rate based on the correct seasonal adjustment, however, the correction and revisions to retail sales in previous periods are not included in this release in line with our revision policy.

Retail sales data are used to estimate growth of the retail trade (excluding motor vehicles and motorcycles) industry in the output measure of gross domestic product (GDP). The retail trade industry has a GDP industry weight of 4.8%.

In our GDP first quarterly estimate, UK: April to June 2025 bulletin, retail trade (excluding motor vehicles and motorcycles) contributed 0.02 percentage points to GDP growth in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025 and 0.06 percentage points in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025. Following these updates, this estimate remains unchanged to two decimal places in Quarter 2 2025 and the contribution to GDP in Quarter 1 2025 has been revised down to 0.03 percentage points. Despite the change in contribution, and all else being equal, GDP in Quarter 1 2025 would have been unchanged to 1 decimal place at 0.7%.

These revisions to retail sales, and any changes to data in wider industries, will be incorporated into GDP as part of the GDP quarterly national accounts, UK April to June 2025 bulletin, published on 30 September 2025. This release also includes other improvements as part of the annual "Blue Book" publication.

These changes will be included in our monthly GDP release on 16 October 2025.

Pausing of Producer Prices publications

Business prices data with corrected chain linking methods have been used in the monthly GDP dataset for producer price indices (PPI), import prices indices (IPI) and export price indices (EPI) from January 2025 onwards.

Correctly chain linked service producer price indices have been included in our monthly GDP dataset from April 2025 onwards. The quarterly SPPI estimates are splined to months for use in monthly GDP calculations.

In addition, the construction output price indices calculated using the corrected PPI and SPPI data have been used from April 2025 onwards in the monthly GDP dataset.

The full implementation of updated business prices data will be managed in line with the national accounts revision policy with the full time series update being included in our GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: April to June 2025 release on 30 September 2025 and Blue Book 2025 publication.

Further information on the chain linking error in the producer prices dataset are detailed in our Methods update for Producer Price Indices (PPI) and Service Produce Prices Indices (SPPI) published on 10 July 2025.

Seasonal adjustment

The monthly estimates of GDP are seasonally adjusted. Seasonal adjustment is the process of estimating and removing the variations associated with the time of year, or the arrangement of the calendar, from a data time series.

GDP estimates, as for many data time series, are difficult to analyse using just raw data because seasonal effects can dominate short-term movements. Identifying and removing the seasonal component leaves the trend and irregular components.

The ONS uses the X-13-ARIMA-SEATS approach to seasonal adjustment. Seasonal adjustment parameters are monitored closely and regularly reviewed. For more information, please see our seasonal adjustment methodology page.

In our monthly GDP estimates, seasonal adjustment is applied at the industry level, and the seasonally adjusted series are aggregated to create estimates by sector and total output. As part of our quality assurance approach, residual seasonality checks are regularly completed by our time series analysis team on both the directly seasonally adjusted series and the indirectly derived aggregate time series.

This topic is explored further in our Assessing residual seasonality in published outputs article published 09 May 2025.