GDP monthly estimate, UK: July 2024

• Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have shown no growth in July 2024, after also showing no growth in June 2024.

• Real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.5% in the three months to July 2024 compared with the three months to April 2024, with widespread growths in the services sector in this period.

• Services output grew by 0.1% in July 2024, following a decrease of 0.1% in June 2024, and grew by 0.6% in the three months to July 2024.

• Production output decreased by 0.8% in July 2024, following a growth of 0.8% in June 2024, and decreased by 0.1% in the three months to July 2024.

• Construction output decreased by 0.4% in July 2024, following a growth of 0.5% in June 2024, but grew by 1.2% in the three months to July 2024, its first positive three-month growth since September 2023.

• There are no revisions included in this monthly release in accordance with the National Accounts revision policy; data revisions up to 2022, as announced in our Blue Book 2024: Advanced aggregate estimates release, and any additional updates to data from 2023 onwards, will be published in our monthly GDP release on 11 October 2024.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.5% in the three months to July 2024 compared with the three months to April 2024. Services output was the main contributor to the growth in the three months to July, increasing by 0.6%. There was also a 1.2% increase in construction output, while production output decreased by 0.1% over this period.

Monthly real GDP is estimated to have shown no growth in July 2024, after also showing no growth in June 2024.

Note that early estimates of GDP are subject to revision (positive and negative). Please see our Why GDP figures are revised article for more information.

There are no revisions included in this monthly release in accordance with the National Accounts revision policy; data revisions up to 2022, as announced in our Blue Book 2024: Advanced aggregate estimates release, and any additional updates to data from 2023 onwards, will be published in our monthly GDP release on 11 October 2024. For more information on Blue Book 2024 please see Section 9: Data sources and quality.

Services output rose by 0.1% in July 2024, offset by decreases of 0.8% in production output and 0.4% in construction output.

Looking over the longer term, GDP is estimated to have increased by 1.1% in the three months to July 2024 compared with the three months to July 2023, and by 1.2% in July 2024 compared with the same month last year.

Overall, the services sector is estimated to have increased by 0.6% in the three months to July 2024 compared with the three months to April 2024. There was widespread growth, with output in 11 of the 14 subsectors rising over this period.

Professional, scientific and technical activities was the largest positive contributor to the rise in services output in this three-month period, increasing by 2.0% in the three months to July 2024. The next largest contribution came from wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, where output increased by 0.7%.

On the month, services output is estimated to have increased by 0.1% in July 2024, following a decrease of 0.1% in June. Figure 3 shows both the monthly and the three-month contributions from the services sector to gross domestic product (GDP) growth in July 2024.

The largest positive contribution to the growth in the services sector in July 2024 came from the information and communication subsector, where monthly output increased by 0.8%. This was mainly caused by computer programming, consultancy and related activities, which increased by 1.6% in July 2024 following a decrease of 1.0% in June 2024. Information service activities also grew in July 2024, by 4.2%, rebounding from a 4.2% decrease in June 2024.

The next largest contribution came from the wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles subsector, which grew by 0.5% in July 2024. The wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles industry was the main influence here, with output rising by 0.7% after a decrease of 1.1% in June 2024. The retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles industry also contributed positively, with growth of 0.5% after output decreased by 1.2% in June 2024 (please see our Retail sales, Great Britain: July 2024 bulletin for more information on this industry’s monthly movements).

Also contributing positively to the month was human health and social work activities, which grew by 0.5% in July 2024. This was because of a 0.7% increase in output in July 2024 for the human health activities industry, where there was only one day of industrial action by junior doctors in July 2024 compared with four in June 2024.

The largest negative contribution to services growth in July 2024 came from professional, scientific and technical activities, down by 1.3%, following five consecutive monthly increases (Figure 4). Decreases of 4.9% in advertising and market research and of 3.9% in architectural and engineering activities; technical testing and analysis were the main contributors to the decline in output in this subsector in July 2024.

Despite having the largest negative contribution to services growth in July 2024, professional, scientific and technical activities was the largest contributor to services growth over the three months to July. The growth over this period, and since October 2023, has largely been driven by legal activities and scientific research and development.

An overview of data sources used in our estimates of service output can be found in our data sources catalogue. The Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 42.9% of the services sector by industry weight. In July 2024, the turnover response rate for the MBS element of the services sector was 87.2%. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received and any new data will be included in future monthly GDP releases. For context, the average turnover response rate for the service sector in 2022 and 2023 now stand at 97.0% and 97.4%.

Consumer-facing services

Consumer-facing services increased by 0.1% in the three months to July 2024, compared with the three months to April 2024. The largest contributions upwards in the three months to July were from a 1.2% growth in the retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles industry, followed by a 1.7% rise in output in food and beverage service activities and a 4.2% growth in sports activities and amusement and recreation activities in July 2024. These were partially offset by decreases of 4.4% in other personal service activities and 1.2% in buying and selling, renting and operating of own or leased real estate, excluding imputed rent.

Output in consumer-facing services increased by 0.3% in July 2024, following a decrease of 0.7% in June 2024. The industries that contributed most to this monthly growth were retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles (up 0.5%), sports activities and amusement and recreation activities (up 3.0%), and accommodation (up 2.2%). More information on consumer-facing services data is available in our Consumer-facing services July 2024 dataset.

More detailed breakdowns on services are available in our Index of Services, UK: July 2024 bulletin.

In the three months to July 2024, production output is estimated to have decreased by 0.1% when compared with the three months to April 2024. This was mainly caused by a 0.3% decrease in manufacturing output in this period, while mining and quarrying also decreased, by 1.4%. These falls were partially offset by a growth of 2.1% in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply and a 0.9% growth in water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities in the three months to July.

On the month, production output is estimated to have decreased by 0.8% in July 2024, following growth of 0.8% in June 2024. Three of the four main sectors in production output saw decreases in July 2024, with the largest contribution to the decrease being a 1.0% reduction in manufacturing. Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply and water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities also decreased, by 1.7% and 0.7% respectively. These were partially offset by a growth of 3.9% in mining and quarrying.

Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply output decreased by 1.7% in July 2024, following a growth of 1.6% in June 2024. There were reductions in both in electric power generation, transmission and distribution (down 1.6%) and the manufacture of gas; distribution of gaseous fuels through mains; steam and air conditioning supply (down 2.2%).

Mining and quarrying output grew by 3.9% in July 2024, following a reduction of 4.0% in June 2024. The growth in July 2024 can mainly be attributed to a 4.4% rise in extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas.

Water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities output decreased by 0.7% in July 2024, following a growth of 0.2% in June 2024. Two of the four industries within the subsector decreased in July 2024 with the negative contributions coming from falls of 1.1% in water collection, treatment and supply, and 1.3% in sewerage. There was growth of 0.2% in waste collection, treatment and disposal activities and materials recovery, while remediation activities and other waste management services showed no growth.

Manufacturing output decreased by 1.0% in July 2024, and was the largest contributor to the reduction in production output in the month, following growth of 1.1% in June 2024. Manufacturing output decreased in 7 of the 13 subsectors in July 2024. The largest negative contribution in July 2024 came from the manufacture of transport equipment (down 2.3%), caused by the 3.5% decrease in the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers industry. The manufacture of machinery and equipment not elsewhere classified (n.e.c.) industry also contributed negatively on the month, with a reduction in output of 4.7% in July 2024. Figure 6 shows both the monthly and three-month contributions to manufacturing output from each of the manufacturing subsectors.

The manufacture of transport equipment was the largest negative contributor to both the monthly manufacturing decrease in July 2024 and over the three months to July 2024. The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) reported a slowdown in car production as factories prepared for new models and temporary supply chain constraints restricted output.

In July 2024, the turnover response rate for the MBS element of the production sector was 83.9%. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses from businesses are received and any new data will be included in future monthly gross domestic product (GDP) releases, in line with the National Accounts revision policy. For context, the average turnover response rate for the production sector in 2022 and 2023 now stand at 96.9% and 97.6%, respectively. A full set of data sources used in monthly GDP can be found in our data source catalogue.

More detailed breakdowns on production are available in our Index of Production, UK: July 2024 bulletin.

Construction output is estimated to have grown by 1.2% in the three months to July 2024 compared with the three months to April 2024. New work increased by 1.6% over the period, and repair and maintenance increased by 0.8%. Within new work, the largest contribution to the increase came from public other new work, which grew by 6.4%. In repair and maintenance the largest contribution came from non-housing repair and maintenance, which grew by 4.8%.

Monthly construction output is estimated to have decreased by 0.4% in July 2024, which follows a rise of 0.5% in June 2024. The decrease in monthly output in July 2024 came from declines in output in both new work, of 0.2%, and repair and maintenance, down 0.7%.

Five out of the nine sectors decreased in July 2024. At the sector level, the main contributions to the monthly decrease were private commercial new work, which decreased by 2.4%, and private housing repair and maintenance, which decreased by 1.7% on the month.

Construction data are sourced from our Monthly Business Survey (MBS). For July 2024, the survey turnover response rate for construction was 76.6%. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received and any new data will be included in future monthly gross domestic product (GDP) releases. For context, the average turnover response rates in 2022 and 2023 now stand at 94.7% and 95.0%, respectively.

Further detail on construction output growth rates can be found in our Construction output in Great Britain: July 2024 bulletin.

There were some common themes that were anecdotally reported by businesses (as part of our monthly surveys) to have played a part in performance across different industries. However, it is difficult to quantify the exact impact.

Comments provided for July 2024 suggested some industries may have been affected by various sporting events held throughout July. Sporting events boosted output in the arts, entertainment, and recreation sector. While many of these events normally occur in July each year, this year many businesses reported higher turnover than in previous years.

Sporting events were also one of the main reasons cited for the monthly increase in retail trade in July, discussed in our Retail trade bulletin. Licensed premises noted a positive impact specifically from the European Football Championships; however, some restaurants cited this as negative impact on footfall. Despite falling on the month, some travel agents also noted an increase in bookings because of the Summer Olympics in Paris.

The level of accuracy of growth rates in these statistics is one decimal place. While growth rates can be calculated to more than one decimal place using our monthly gross domestic product (GDP) and main sectors data, where a series is estimated to have shown no growth over a period, looking at further decimal places to gauge a direction is not recommended because of increasing levels of uncertainty.

Further information on measuring the data across our main data sources is available in the following releases:

• Index of Services, UK: July 2024 bulletin
• Index of Production, UK: July 2024 bulletin
• Construction output in Great Britain: July 2024 bulletin

The main data source for these statistics is the monthly business survey (MBS) and response rates for each can be found below:

• Index of Services response rates dataset
• Index of Production response rates dataset
• Construction response rates dataset

Our Monthly GDP data sources catalogue provides a full breakdown of the data used in this publication.

In the UK, we produce estimates of monthly and quarterly GDP. Monthly estimates of GDP are based on only the output measure of GDP, while quarterly estimates of GDP reflect the average of the three approaches (output, income, and expenditure).

Estimates for the construction industry within monthly GDP will differ to those published in the construction output release as they account for both the outputs produced and inputs consumed by the industry. There are also some coverage differences given the use of the Annual Business Survey in their compilation.

Non-market education output methodology

School attendance data is used as our source to estimate education output by the non-market sector. Education is considered to be provided across the whole year and so school holidays, or school leavers, do not reduce output over the summer. As attendance levels are not available over the summer, the June 2024 value will be carried forward. When data are available for September 2024, the July and August 2024 estimates will be recalculated based on the change in attendance between June and September.

Consumer-facing services industry classification

The industry breakdown used for consumer-facing services is based on the UK Standard Industrial Classification (SIC).

The following list contains the full SIC names of industries included in consumer facing services:

• Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles
• Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles
• Rail transport
• Accommodation
• Food and beverage service activities
• Buying and selling, renting and operating of own or leased real estate, excluding imputed rental
• Veterinary activities
• Travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities
• Gambling and betting services
• Sports activities and amusement and recreation activities
• Activities of membership organisations
• Other personal service activities
• Activities of households as employers of domestic personnel

Bluebook 2024 publication update

The 2024 UK annual national accounts, also known as Blue Book 2024, will incorporate several methodological changes focused on data pertaining to recent years, along with the addition of more recent survey and administrative information.

On 7 August we published our Blue Book 2024: advanced aggregate estimates article to give users details of the impact of the 2024 UK national accounts update on current price and chained volumes measure estimates of GDP from 1997 to 2022.

This estimates 2022 for the first time using the supply and use tables (SUTs) framework, as well as improving the estimates of 2020 and 2021 with more recent data. We have also implemented outstanding classification decisions affecting the public sector, as well as improvements to the UK trade gas exports deflator. Additionally, we have updated the base year to 2022 after holding this fixed since the start of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

The next quarterly National Accounts release on 30 September 2024 will incorporate these revisions, and any updates to 2023 onwards, in our official estimates in line with our National Accounts Revision Policy.

These will be incorporated into our monthly GDP estimates in our release on 11 October 2024.

Until the Blue Book 2024 data are incorporated into our monthly GDP estimates on 11 October 2024, our monthly GDP estimates will continue to have a reference and base year of 2019.

These accredited official statistics were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) in March 2015. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled accredited official statistics.

Quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in our Gross domestic product (GDP) Quality and Methodology Information (QMI) report.

Monthly growth rates can be volatile. This indicator should therefore be used with caution and alongside other measures, such as the three-month growth rate, when looking for an indicator of the medium-term trend of the economy. However, it is useful in highlighting one-off changes that can be masked by three-month growth rates.