GDP monthly estimate, UK: January 2026

In the three months to January 2026, compared with the three months to October 2025:

• Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.2%, following a growth of 0.1% in the three months to December, and no growth in the three months to November 2025 (revised up from a fall of 0.1% in our previous bulletin).

• Services output grew by 0.2%, after showing no growth in the three months to December 2025.

• Production output grew by 1.3%; this follows a growth of 1.2% in the three months to December 2025.

• Construction output fell by 2.0%, following falls of 2.1% in the three months to December and of 0.9% in the three months to November 2025.

In the month to January 2026:

• Monthly GDP showed no growth, following growths of 0.1% in December and 0.2% in November 2025.

• Services showed no growth, production fell by 0.1%, and construction grew by 0.2% in January 2026.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.2% in the three months to January 2026, compared with the three months to October 2025. This follows a growth of 0.1% in the three months to December 2025, and no growth in the three months to November 2025 (revised up from a fall of 0.1% in our previous bulletin).

The largest contribution to the three-month on three-month growth came from a growth of 1.3% in production output. Services output grew by 0.2% in the three months to January 2026, while construction output fell by 2.0%.

In this release, both retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles, and non-market education are open for revision from January 2024. There are no periods open for revisions for the other sectors. Details on the causes of revisions are discussed in Section 7: Revisions to GDP.

Early estimates of GDP are subject to both positive and negative revision in future releases, as more data becomes available and we subsequently update our estimates with that additional information. For more information, please see our Why GDP figures are revised article.

Monthly real GDP showed no growth in January 2026, following growths of 0.1% in December and 0.2% in November 2025. Services output showed no growth, while production fell by 0.1% and construction grew by 0.2% in January 2026.

Looking over the longer term, GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.9% in the three months to January 2026, compared with the three months to January 2025. Services grew by 0.9%, production grew by 1.0%, and construction fell by 0.3% over this period.

GDP is estimated to be 0.8% higher in January 2026, compared with January 2025.

Services output grew by 0.2% in the three months to January 2026, compared with the three months to October 2025. This follows three consecutive months of no growth on a three-month on three-month basis, with the services sector showing no growth in the three months to October, November and December 2025.

Figure 3: Services output grew by 0.2% in the three months to January 2026, after showing no growth in the three months to October, November and December 2025

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates for the services sector, January 2023 to January 2026, UK

There was a rise in output in 7 of the 14 subsectors in the three months to January 2026. The largest positive contributions, at the subsector level, came from:

• wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (up 1.0%), driven by a growth of 2.9% in the wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles industry, which was the largest positive contribution to the growth in services output by a single industry

• information and communication (up 0.8%), driven by growths in motion picture, video and TV programme production, sound recording and music publishing activities (up 7.1%) and information service activities (up 5.2%)

• transportation and storage (up 1.1%), driven by growths in warehousing and support activities for transportation (up 2.2%) and postal and courier activities (up 2.6%)

The largest negative contributions, at the subsector level, came from:

• real estate activities (down 0.2%), driven by falls in real estate activities on a fee or contract basis (down 7.1%) and buying and selling, renting and operating of own or leased real estate, excluding imputed rent (down 0.7%)

• accommodation and food service activities (down 0.7%), because of a fall of 2.9% in accommodation

• arts, entertainment and recreation (down 1.1%), driven by a fall in creative, arts and entertainment activities (down 6.9%)

Services output showed no growth in January 2026. This follows growths of 0.2% in December (revised down from a growth of 0.3% in our previous bulletin) and 0.1% in November 2025. In January 2026, 7 of the 14 subsectors showed growth.

The largest positive contribution to services sector output in January 2026 came from wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (up 1.0%). This was driven by growths of 1.8% in retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles (for more information see our Retail sales, Great Britain: January 2026 bulletin), and of 1.1% in wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles.

The second largest positive contribution came from professional, scientific and technical activities (up 0.6%), driven by a growth in scientific research and development (up 2.8%).

The largest negative contribution at the subsector level came from administrative and support service activities, which fell by 2.3%. This fall was driven by a 5.7% fall in employment activities, and a 3.9% fall in rental and leasing activities.

The fall in employment activities was the largest negative contribution from a single industry to both services output and real GDP growth, contributing negative 0.08 percentage points to services output, and negative 0.06 percentage points to real GDP growth in January 2026. This fall in employment activities follows four consecutive months of growth (see Figure 5).

The next largest negative contribution to services output came from accommodation and food service activities (down 1.8%). This fall came from a 2.7% fall in food and beverage service activities.

Transportation and storage also contributed negatively to services output, with a fall of 1.1% in January 2026, following growths of 2.0% in December and 0.4% in November 2025. This was driven by a fall in warehousing and support activities for transportation, down 1.7% following three consecutive months of growth.

Consumer-facing services

Consumer-facing services output showed no growth in the three months to January 2026, compared with the three months to October 2025.

The largest negative contributions in this period came from:

• wholesale and retail; trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (down 2.0%)

• accommodation (down 2.9%)

• buying and selling, renting and operating of own or leased real estate, excluding imputed rent (down 0.7%)

The largest positive contributions in this period came from:

• other personal service activities (up 2.0%)

• sports activities and amusement and recreation activities (up 2.7%)

• travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities (up 3.3%)

Output in consumer-facing services grew by 0.1% in January 2026, following a growth of 0.3% in December 2025. The largest positive contributions at the industry level came from retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles (up 1.8%) and other personal service activities (up 1.9%).

The largest negative contribution came from food and beverage service activities, which fell by 2.7% following an increase of 1.6% in December 2025 (see Figure 7).

More information on consumer-facing services data is available in our Consumer-facing services: January 2026 dataset.

An overview of data sources used in our estimates of service output can be found in our GDP(o) data sources catalogue. Our Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 43.6% of the services sector by industry weight. The turnover response rate for the MBS element of the services sector was 84.7% in January 2026, which is broadly as expected at this point in the data reporting cycle. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received. Any new data will be included in future monthly GDP releases. For context, the average turnover response rate for the service sector in 2023, 2024 and 2025 now stand at 97.5%, 97.6% and 96.9%, respectively.

More detailed breakdowns on services are available in our Index of Services, UK: January 2026 bulletin.

Production output is estimated to have grown by 1.3% in the three months to January 2026, compared with the three months to October 2025.

Figure 8: Production output grew by 1.3% in the three months to January, despite a fall of 0.1% in the month of January 2026

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates for index of production, January 2023 to January 2026, UK

The growth in production output in the three months to January 2026 was mainly driven by a growth of 1.5% in manufacturing, and a growth of 2.2% in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply.

This growth was partially offset by falls of 0.5% in water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities, and of 0.1% in mining and quarrying in the three months to January 2026.

Figure 9: Production sectors’ monthly indices and three-monthly growth rates

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates for the production sectors, January 2023 to January 2026, UK

Notes:

1.  Indices are rounded to one decimal place.

2. Weights of these subsectors are available in the GDP(o) data sources catalogue.

On the month, production output is estimated to have fallen by 0.1% in January 2026, following a fall of 0.9% in December 2025, and a growth of 1.3% in November. This was driven by falls in mining and quarrying (down 3.2%) and electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (down 0.3%).

This fall was partially offset by growths of 1.9% in water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities, and of 0.1% in manufacturing.

Manufacturing output

Manufacturing output grew by 1.5% in the three months to January 2026, compared with the three months to October 2025. Over this period, 8 of the 13 subsectors increased. The largest positive contributors to this growth over the three months were:

• manufacture of transport equipment (up 8.1%), driven by a 17.5% growth in manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers (see Figure 10)

• other manufacture and repair (up 4.7%)

• manufacture of computers, electronic and optical products (up 2.4%)

These growths were partially offset by falls elsewhere, with the largest negative contributions coming from:

• manufacture of chemicals and chemical products (down 4.0%)

• manufacture of food products, beverages and tobacco (down 0.9%)

• manufacture of wood and paper products, and printing (down 1.9%)

Figure 10 shows both the three-month and monthly contributions to manufacturing output from each of the manufacturing subsectors.

Manufacturing output grew by 0.1% in January 2026, with 5 of the 13 subsectors rising over this period. This follows a fall of 0.5% in December 2025 and a growth of 1.9% in November 2025.

The largest positive contribution came from an increase of 4.0% in the manufacture of transport equipment. The next largest positive contribution came from other manufacturing and repair (up 4.5%).

These growths were partially offset by falls in the manufacture of machinery and equipment not elsewhere classified (down 7.7%), the manufacture of electrical equipment (down 9.0%), and the manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products (down 2.8%).

Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers industry

There was an increase of 17.5% in output from the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers industry in the three months to January 2026, compared with the three months to October 2025.

This industry was affected by a cyber incident at a major car manufacturer in the three months to October 2025. The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) issued a joint statement reporting significant impacts of the cyber incident on the wider automotive supply chain over this period. The industry has now recovered to the level of August 2025. However, despite the growth in this three-month period, the industry's output is now 0.8% lower than it was in January 2025, and 9.8% lower than it was in January 2024 (see Figure 11).

We anticipate this impact to also be evident in the three-month growth to February 2026, as both low points on the index (September and October 2025) are included in the three months to November 2025. However, this impact should be lessened by Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2026, which compares to Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2025, excluding the main effects seen in September 2025.

Our Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 72.9% of the production sector by industry weight. The turnover response rate for the MBS element of the production sector was 85.9% in January 2026, which is broadly in line with expected response rates. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses from businesses are received. Any new data will be included in future monthly GDP releases, in line with our National Accounts Revisions Policy. For context, the average turnover response rates for the production sector in 2023, 2024 and 2025 now stand at 97.7%, 97.8% and 97.1%, respectively. A full set of data sources used in monthly GDP can be found in our GDP(o) data sources catalogue.

More detailed breakdowns on production are available in our Index of Production, UK: January 2026 bulletin.

Construction output is estimated to have fallen by 2.0% in the three months to January 2026 compared with the three months to October 2025. Over this period, new work fell by 3.2% and repair and maintenance fell by 0.4%. Within new work, the largest negative contributor was private housing new work, which fell by 6.3%. In repair and maintenance, the largest negative contributor was public housing repair and maintenance, which fell by 2.6%. 

Figure 12: Construction output fell by 2.0% in the three months to January 2026, compared with the three months to October 2025

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates for the construction sector, January 2023 to January 2026, Great Britain

Monthly construction output is estimated to have increased by 0.2% in January 2026. This follows three consecutive falls in the monthly series.

The increase in monthly output in January 2026 came solely from a rise in repair and maintenance (3.3%), as new work fell by 2.0% on the month. At the sector level, the main contributor to the monthly increase was non-housing repair and maintenance, which rose by 5.0%.

Figure 13: Repair and maintenance increased while new work decreased in January 2026

Monthly index and three-month on three-month growth rates of the construction subsectors, January 2023 to January 2026, Great Britain

Figure 14 shows both the monthly and three-month contributions to construction output from each of the construction sectors. 

Construction data are sourced from our Monthly Business Survey (MBS). The MBS turnover response rate for construction was 72.9% for January 2026. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received and any new data will be included in future monthly gross domestic product (GDP) releases. For context, the average turnover response rates in 2023, 2024, and 2025 now stand at 95.4%, 95.8%, and 96.0%, respectively.

Further detail on construction output growth rates can be found in our Construction output in Great Britain: January 2026 bulletin.

Some common themes collected as part of our Monthly Business Survey (MBS) were anecdotally reported to have played a part in performance across different industries in January 2026. However, it is difficult to quantify their exact impact.

A range of industries across manufacturing, retail and wholesale reported the high price of precious metals affecting turnover in January 2026. These comments were both positive, in terms of increasing the value of sales, and negative, in terms of buyers delaying making purchases. For example, we mentioned strong sales from online jewellers in Section 1: Overview of our Retail sales, Great Britain: January 2026 bulletin.

In this release, both retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles, and non-market education are open for revision from January 2024. There are no periods open for revisions for the other sectors.

For non-market education, we now have a sufficiently long time series to apply seasonal adjustment factors covering the last five years. For retail trade, these will reflect revisions made to the Retail Sales Index (RSI) in our Retail sales, Great Britain: December 2025 bulletin.

As a result of these changes, there are no revisions to quarterly or annual output GDP growth to one decimal place in 2024 and 2025. In our upcoming GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: October to December 2025 bulletin, to be released on 31 March 2026, we will incorporate revisions dating back to Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2024.

Further revisions can be found in our Revision triangles dataset.

The level of accuracy of growth rates in these statistics is one decimal place. Growth rates can be calculated to more than one decimal place using our Monthly GDP and main sectors to four decimal places dataset. However, where a series is estimated to have shown no growth over a period, we do not recommend looking at further decimal places to gauge a direction because of increasing levels of uncertainty.

Further information on measuring the data across our main data sources is available in:

• our Index of Services, UK: January 2026 bulletin

• our Index of Production, UK: January 2026 bulletin

• our Construction output in Great Britain: January 2026 bulletin

The main data source for these statistics is the Monthly Business Survey (MBS). Response rates for each can be found in:

• our Current and historical Monthly Business Survey (services) response rates dataset

• our Monthly Business Survey (production) response rates dataset

• our Output in the construction industry dataset

A full breakdown of the data used in this bulletin is available in our Monthly GDP(o) data sources catalogue.

In the UK, we produce estimates of monthly and quarterly GDP. Monthly estimates of GDP are based on only the output measure of GDP, while quarterly estimates of GDP reflect the average of the three approaches (output, income and expenditure).

Estimates for the construction industry within monthly GDP will differ to those published in the construction output release, as they account for both the outputs produced and inputs consumed by the industry. There are also some coverage differences given the use of the Annual Business Survey in their compilation.

Consumer-facing services industry classification

The industry breakdown used for consumer-facing services is based on our UK Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) of Economic Activities methodology.

The following list contains the full SIC names of industries included in consumer-facing services:

• wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles

• retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles

• rail transport

• accommodation

• food and beverage service activities

• buying and selling, renting and operating of own or leased real estate, excluding imputed rental

• veterinary activities

• travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities

• gambling and betting services

• sports activities and amusement and recreation activities

• activities of membership organisations

• other personal service activities

• activities of households as employers of domestic personnel

Intermediate consumption in early estimates of monthly GDP

Monthly GDP measures the gross value added (GVA) of each industry in the economy. GVA is derived as the industry's output minus its intermediate consumption, where output is the value of goods and services produced, and intermediate consumption is the value of goods and services purchased to be used in the production of goods and services.

Estimates of intermediate consumption are only collected annually. For most industries, our monthly estimates are based on deflated turnover or volume estimates of output as a proxy for GVA. Complete estimates of GVA are calculated as part of our annual Blue Book process, where both output and intermediate consumption are measured. The annual process for calculating estimates of GVA is described in our Double deflation and the supply use framework in the UK National Accounts article.

The main assumption this proxy approach makes is that the relationship between output and intermediate consumption remains the same past the last year where annual GVA estimates are available. Therefore, the extent to which this proves not to be the case is one cause of revision between our early estimates of GVA and the fully balanced annual estimates. This relationship can be represented by the intermediate consumption (IC) ratio, which is the intermediate consumption of an industry divided by its output. The last year where annual GVA estimates are available is 2023, and the intermediate consumption ratios for each section are shown in Table 1.

When the annual data for 2024 are available, if the observed IC ratio of an industry is higher, it requires more product inputs to create the same amount of output, and hence GVA (other things equal) will be lower. Therefore, we expect an increase in the IC ratio of an industry to be associated with a downward revision in GVA growth. Similarly, a lower IC ratio in the most recent year would be associated with an increase in the GVA growth rate.

These accredited official statistics were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in March 2015. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality, and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled "accredited official statistics".

Quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in our Gross domestic product (GDP) QMI.

Monthly growth rates can be volatile. This indicator should therefore be used with caution and alongside other measures, such as the three-month growth rate, when looking for an indicator of the medium-term trend of the economy. However, it is useful in highlighting one-off changes that can be masked by three-month growth rates.

Seasonal adjustment

The monthly estimates of GDP are seasonally adjusted. Seasonal adjustment is the process of estimating and removing the variations associated with the time of year, or the arrangement of the calendar, from a data time series.

GDP estimates, as for many data time series, are difficult to analyse using just raw data because seasonal effects can dominate short-term movements. Identifying and removing the seasonal component leaves the trend and irregular components.

We use the X-13-ARIMA-SEATS approach to seasonal adjustment. Seasonal adjustment parameters are monitored closely and regularly reviewed. For more information, please see our seasonal adjustment methodology.

In our monthly GDP estimates, seasonal adjustment is applied at the industry level, and the seasonally adjusted series are aggregated to create estimates by sector and total output.

Based on our quality assurance as part of this bulletin, there is no statistically significant residual seasonality in our aggregate estimates for monthly GDP, Index of Services, Index of Production, construction or manufacturing, in the period from January 1997 to January 2026.

This topic is explored further in Section 6: Case study: monthly GDP of our Assessing residual seasonality in published outputs methodology, last revised on 30 September 2025.

In response to user feedback, starting from the March 2026 edition of this bulletin, to be released on 14 May 2026, we will begin publishing non-seasonally adjusted chained volume measure series, in addition to our current datasets.