Public sector finances, UK: November 2021

Other commentary from the latest public sector finances data can be found on the following pages:

• Recent and upcoming changes to public sector finance statistics: November 2021
• Public sector finances borrowing by sub-sector dataset
• UK government debt and deficit: June 2021

• Public sector net borrowing (excluding public sector banks, PSNB ex) was estimated to have been £17.4 billion in November 2021; this was the second-highest November borrowing since monthly records began in 1993, £4.9 billion less than in November 2020.

• PSNB ex was estimated to have been £136.0 billion in the financial year-to-November 2021; this was the second-highest financial year-to-November borrowing since monthly records began in 1993, £115.8 billion less than in the same period last year.

• Public sector net debt excluding public sector banks (PSND ex) was £2,317.7 billion at the end of November 2021 or around 96.1% of gross domestic product (GDP), the highest ratio since March 1963 when it was 98.3%.

• Public sector net debt excluding public sector banks and the Bank of England (PSND ex BoE) was £1,994.3 billion at the end of November 2021 or around 82.7% of GDP.

• Provisional November 2021 estimates indicate that central government receipts were £61.1 billion, up £2.5 billion (or 4.3%) compared with November 2020, while central government bodies spent £76.6 billion, down £5.7 billion (or 6.9%) from November 2020.

• Central government net cash requirement (excluding UK Asset Resolution Ltd and Network Rail) was £13.1 billion in November 2021, £10.9 billion less than in November 2020, bringing the total for the financial year-to-November 2021 to £114.2 billion.

The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has had a substantial impact on the economy, as well as public sector borrowing and debt.

Central government tax and National Insurance receipts combined in the financial year ending (FYE) 2021 (April 2020 to March 2021) were £668.7 billion, a fall of £36.6 billion (or 5.2%), compared with the same period a year earlier.

Government support for individuals and businesses during the coronavirus pandemic contributed to an increase of £205.2 billion (or 27.8%) in central government day-to-day (or current) spending, bringing the total for FYE 2021 to £943.2 billion.

As a result of these lower receipts and higher expenditure, provisional estimates indicate that in FYE 2021, the public sector borrowed £321.9 billion. This is equivalent to 15.0% of UK gross domestic product (GDP), the highest such ratio since the end of World War Two, when it was 15.2% in FYE 1946.

In total, more than 50 schemes have been announced by the UK government and the devolved administrations to support individuals and businesses during the coronavirus pandemic. Our article Recent and upcoming changes to public sector finance statistics: November 2021and earlier editions of this article discuss the largest of the coronavirus schemes by implementation status within the public sector finances.

The extra funding required by government coronavirus support schemes, combined with reduced cash receipts and a fall in GDP, have all helped to push public sector net debt as a ratio of GDP to levels last seen in the early 1960s. Public sector net debt excluding public sector banks (PSND ex) at the end of November 2021 was equivalent to 96.1% of GDP.

The public sector spent more than it received in taxes and other income in November 2021, requiring it to borrow £17.4 billion, the second-highest November borrowing on record.

Analysis of the components of borrowing in November 2021

Central government is the largest sub-sector of the public sector and therefore changes in central government receipts and expenditure usually have the most influence on public sector net borrowing. Public sector finances tables 1 to 10: Appendix A provide further information.

Central government receipts

Central government receipts in November 2021 were estimated to have been £61.1 billion, a £2.5 billion increase compared with November 2020. Of these receipts, tax revenue increased by £1.6 billion to £44.3 billion.

In the most recent months, tax receipts recorded on an accrued basis are subject to some uncertainty. This is because many taxes such as Value Added Tax (VAT), Corporation Tax and Pay As You Earn (PAYE) Income Tax contain some forecast cash receipts data and are liable to revision when actual cash receipts data are received.

In December 2021, the forecasts underlying our current tax estimates were updated to reflect the Office for Budget Responsibility's (OBR) Economic and Fiscal Outlook - October 2021 and the subsequent monthly profiles published on 9 December 2021.

Corporation Tax

In November 2021, Corporation Tax receipts on an accrued basis were £3.7 billion, a reduction of £1.0 billion compared with a year earlier. As with October 2021, a portion of this fall is likely to be because of the super-deduction capital allowance, providing tax incentives for companies to invest in qualifying new plant and machinery assets.

Under the super-deduction, for every pound a company invests in qualifying new plant and machinery assets, their taxes are cut by up to 25 pence. These assets include solar panels, computer equipment, vehicles, tools, office furniture, electric vehicle charge points and heavy machinery.

Though the rate of uptake of this scheme is not yet clear, early evidence suggests that super-deduction claims are building up more slowly than expected. In their Economic and fiscal outlook -- October 2021, the OBR expects this scheme to reduce Corporation Tax receipts by £9.3 billion in the current financial year, largely over the second half, adding further uncertainty to the profile of Corporation Tax receipts in recent months.

Central government expenditure

Central government bodies spent £76.6 billion in November 2021, £5.7 billion less than in November 2020.

Interest payments on debt by central government

Interest payments on central government debt were £4.5 billion in November 2021, £0.4 billion more than in November 2020.

The recent high levels of debt interest payments are largely a result of movements in the Retail Prices Index (RPI) to which index-linked gilts are pegged. To estimate the RPI uplift for three-month lagged index-linked gilts in November 2021, we reference the RPI movement between August and September 2021. RPI increases in the most recent months will be reflected in our interest estimates in due course.

While any RPI uplift will impact on accrued expenditure (as used in the calculation of borrowing) it will not be wholly and immediately reflected in the central government net cash requirement. These movements are reflected in the government's liabilities, which will be realised as the existing stock of index-linked gilts is redeemed.

Central government expenditure on procurement and pay

Central government departments spent £32.1 billion on goods and services in November 2021, an increase of £2.1 billion from November 2020.

Spending in this area includes £17.3 billion on procurement and £14.2 billion in pay. This cost includes the expenditure by the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC), devolved administrations and other departments in response to the coronavirus pandemic. It also includes the NHS Test and Trace programme and the cost of vaccines.

Transfers to local government

Central government current transfers to local government were £8.7 billion in November 2021, a decrease of £3.5 billion compared with November 2020.

Current and capital transfers between central government and local government are based on administrative data supplied by HM Treasury and have no impact at the public sector level.

Job support schemes

The Coronavirus support schemes, the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS) and Self Employment Income Support Scheme (SEISS), closed in September 2021. Our estimates of the cost of these schemes are not yet final. We expect to update our estimates over the coming months as further data become available.

Although both schemes have closed, small amounts on a cash basis will continue to be recorded when any late payments and refunds occur. Given that SEISS is recorded on a cash basis, we will see further payments or refunds contributing to central government borrowing beyond September 2021. However, because CJRS is recorded on an accrued basis, any CJRS payments or refunds after September will be reflected as revised estimates for the period to which they relate.

Bulb Energy Limited

On 24 November 2021, the energy provider Bulb Energy Ltd was placed in a Special Administration Regime (SAR) by the UK Government to ensure continued provision of essential services to its customers.

We will consider the impact of the SAR on the public sector finances and review as part of our classifications work. In the meantime, payments made under the SAR are provisionally treated as expenditure under "other capital transfers", a component of net investment, as they happen. 

Further information is available in our article Recent and upcoming changes to public sector finance statistics: November 2021.

Public sector net borrowing in any given period is the sum of the current budget deficit and net investment (capital spending less capital receipts).

The public sector borrowed £136.0 billion in the financial year-to-November 2021 (April to November 2021), £115.8 billion less than in the same period a year earlier.

Official forecasts suggest that borrowing may reach £183.0 billion by the end of the financial year ending (FYE) 2022 (April 2021 to March 2022), £138.9 billion less than the £321.9 billion borrowed in the FYE 2021.

Borrowing had generally been falling since its peak of £157.8 billion during the economic downturn in FYE March 2010. However, largely as a result of the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the £321.9 billion borrowed in FYE 2021 was more than double this previous record.

Current budget deficit

Public sector current budget deficit is the difference between current (day-to-day) expenditure and current receipts (mainly from taxes), having taken account of depreciation.

In the financial year-to-November 2021, the public sector current budget deficit (excluding public sector banks) was £106.2 billion, indicating that current expenditure was greater than its income.

Central government is the largest sub-sector of the public sector and therefore changes in central government receipts and expenditure usually have the most influence on the overall public sector current budget deficit.

Central government current receipts and current expenditure in the financial year-to-November 2021 are summarised in Tables 6 and 7 respectively.

Public sector finances tables 1 to 10: Appendix A provide further information.

Central government receipts

Central government receipts in the financial year-to-November 2021 were estimated to have been £512.0 billion, a £65.2 billion increase compared with the same period in 2020. Of these receipts, tax revenue increased by £59.5 billion to £374.6 billion.

Central government expenditure

Central government day-to-day (or current) spending was estimated to have fallen by £33.5 billion to £598.4 billion, in financial year-to-November 2021, compared with the same period a year earlier.

The central government net cash requirement (CGNCR), excluding UK Asset Resolution Ltd and Network Rail, is the amount of cash needed immediately for the UK government to meet its obligations. To obtain cash, the UK government sells financial instruments, gilts or Treasury Bills.

The amount of cash required will be affected by changes in the timing of tax payments by individuals and businesses, but does not depend on forecast tax receipts in the same way as our accrued (or national accounts) based measures.

The CGNCR consequently contains the timeliest information and is less susceptible to revision than other statistics in this release. However, as for any cash measure, the CGNCR does not reflect the overall amount for which the government is liable or the point at which any liability is incurred – it only reflects when cash is received and spent.

Public sector net debt represents the amount of money the public sector owes to private sector organisations (including overseas institutions). When the government borrows, this normally adds to the debt total, but it is important to remember that reducing borrowing (the deficit) is not the same as reducing the debt.

Public sector net debt excluding public sector banks (PSND ex) was £2,317.7 billion at the end of November 2021, an increase of £218.2 billion compared with the same time last year.

Over the course of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the increase in debt and a fall in gross domestic product (GDP) has helped push public sector net debt as a ratio of GDP to levels last seen in the early 1960s. Debt as a ratio of GDP was 96.1% at the end of November 2021.

Central government gilts

Debt represents the amount of money owed by the public sector to the private sector and is largely made up of gilts (or bonds) issued to investors by central government.

There were £2,001.5 billion of central government gilts in circulation at the end of November 2021 (including those held by the Bank of England (BoE) Asset Purchase Facility Fund). This comprised £1,514.1 billion in conventional gilts and £487.4 billion in index-linked gilts (at redemption value).

These gilts are auctioned by the Debt Management Office (DMO), on behalf of central government in accordance with its financing remit.

The Bank of England's contribution to debt

The BoE's contribution to debt is largely a result of its quantitative easing activities through the Asset Purchase Facility (APF) and Term Funding Schemes (TFS).

Our presentation of the BoE's contribution to net debt can be found in Table PSA9A in our Public sector finances tables 1 to 10: Appendix A.

The estimated impact of the APF's gilt holdings on debt currently stands at £114.5 billion. This represents the difference between the value of the reserves created to purchase gilts (or market value of the gilts) and the £752.4 billion face (or redemption) value of the gilts purchased.

The total corporate bond holdings of the APF at the end of November 2021 stood at £19.5 billion, adding an equivalent amount to the level of debt.

The loan liability under the TFS umbrella increased by £23.8 billion between October and November 2021 and now stands at £195.3 billion, adding an equivalent amount to the level of debt. Although the draw down period for TFS with incentives for small and medium enterprises (TFSME) ended on 31 October 2021, we have recorded an additional £26.9 billion in loans in November to reflect the loans issued after 27 October 2021, the point at which the published October data was taken.

Our public sector net debt excluding the public sector banks and the Bank of England (PSND ex BoE) measure removes the debt impact of these schemes along with the other transactions relating to the normal operations of the BoE. Currently standing at £1,994.3 billion at the end of November 2021, or around 82.7% of GDP, PSND ex BoE is £323.4 billion (or 13.4 percentage points of GDP) less than PSND ex.

Wider measures of the public sector balance sheet

In the Autumn Statement 2016, the government announced the supplementary fiscal aggregate public sector net financial liabilities excluding public sector banks (PSNFL ex).

PSNFL ex is a more comprehensive measure of the public sector balance sheet, capturing a wider range of financial assets and liabilities than recorded in PSND ex. For example, the assets held under the Term Funding Schemes fall outside the boundary of PSND ex.

PSNFL ex was £1,977.6 billion at the end of November 2021 or around 82.0% of GDP.

Table PSNFL 1 summarises the components used to estimate PSNFL ex, while Table PSNFL 3 provides a reconciliation between the latest measure of PSND ex and PSNFL ex.

PSNFL ex is very similar to the national accounts' concept of public sector net worth (PSNW). The notable differences between the two aggregates are that PSNW includes non-financial assets, whereas PSNFL ex does not. Also, deposit, loan and debt security liabilities are recorded at market value in PSNW, whereas in PSNFL ex they are recorded at face value.

Our latest estimates of PSNW are presented in the dataset International Monetary Fund's Government Finance Statistics framework in the public sector finances: Appendix E.

The data for the latest months of every release contain a degree of forecasts. Subsequently, these are replaced by improved forecasts, as further data are made available and finally by outturn data.

The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has had a substantial impact on both tax receipts and expenditure. These impacts are likely to be revised further as the full effects of the coronavirus pandemic on the public finances continue to become clearer.

Each quarter (more specifically in March, June, September and December), public sector finances (PSF) data are aligned to our internationally reported dataset. This allows coherence between the datasets and takes advantage of the more detailed quarterly data underpinning the latter, most notably for central government expenditure.

This quarterly alignment process also provides an appropriate point to include the latest local government and public corporations data, and to reflect on our assumptions and adjustments.

This exercise may result in extended revisions to the PSF dataset, depending on both the availability of data and the period for which the national accounts is open to revision.

The revisions to the components of central and local government borrowing are summarised in Public sector finances tables 1 to 10: Appendix A.

Revisions to net borrowing in the financial year-to-October 2021

Since our last publication (19 November 2021), we have reduced our estimate of borrowing in the financial year-to-October 2021 by £8.7 billion. This is largely because of reductions of £5.6 billion and £3.2 billion to our previous estimates of central government and local government borrowing respectively.

We have increased our previous estimate of central government tax receipts by £3.1 billion, while our previous estimate of departmental expenditure on goods and services has reduced by £1.9 billion over the same seven-month period.

Tables 11 and 12 detail the revisions to central government receipts in the financial year-to-October 2021 since our last publication.

Our estimates of local government borrowing for the financial year-to-October 2021 are largely based on budget forecast data provided by the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities, and by the devolved administrations. This month we have updated our previous estimates, most notably reducing our previous estimate of gross capital formation, to reflect the latest available data.

Revisions to net borrowing in the financial year ending March 2021

Since our last publication (19 November 2021), we have reduced our estimate of borrowing in the financial year ending March 2021 by £1.3 billion.

We have reduced our estimate of central government net borrowing by £1.2 billion, largely by reducing our estimate of capital grants paid to the private sector by £1.7 billion across the 12-month period. In addition, we have increased our previous estimate of central government tax receipts and national insurance contributions by £0.6 billion, while increasing our estimates of expenditure on both debt interest payments and subsidies by £0.5 billion and £0.4 billion respectively.

Tables 11 and 12 detail the revisions to central government receipts in the financial year ending March 2021 since our last publication.

We have reduced our estimate of the net borrowing of the public corporations sub-sector by £2.3 billion, largely because of updates to Transport Trading Ltd data. Published accounts data have replaced our initial OBR based forecasts and updates to Housing Revenue Account data, where previous estimates have been updated to reflect new data obtained from local government capital outturn estimates for England and Wales.

We have increased our estimate of local government net borrowing by £2.3 billion. We have:

• replaced the budget forecast estimate of current expenditure for local authorities in England with the first provisional outturn estimate

• replaced the provisional outturn estimate of capital expenditure for local authorities in England with the final outturn estimate

• replaced the provisional outturn estimates of both current and capital expenditure for local authorities in Wales with the final outturn estimates

Revisions to net borrowing for earlier financial years

We have reduced our previous estimates of public sector net borrowing in the financial year ending (FYE) March 2020 by £0.3 billion, largely as a result of increases in our previous estimates of income and corporation tax receipts over that period.

Revisions to public sector net debt

This month we have increased our previous estimate of the level of debt at the end of October 2021 by £5.4 billion from that published on 19 November 2021. This is largely as a result of a £5.7 billion reduction in our estimate of the cash held within the Asset Purchase Facility Fund.

This month we reduced our estimate of the contribution of the public sector pension scheme sub-sector to public sector net debt by £0.8 billion. However, this reduction was partially offset by a number of smaller updates to the other components of public sector net debt, excluding the Bank of England.

The revisions to our debt aggregates are presented in Public sector finances tables 1 to 10: Appendix A.

Public sector

In the UK, the public sector consists of six sub-sectors: central government, local government, public non-financial corporations, public sector pensions, the Bank of England (BoE) and public financial corporations (or public sector banks).

Public sector banks

Unless otherwise stated, the figures quoted in this bulletin exclude public sector banks, currently only the NatWest Group (formerly the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) Group).

The reported position of debt, and to a lesser extent, borrowing, would be distorted by the inclusion of NatWest Group's balance sheet (and transactions). This is because the government does not need to borrow to fund the debt of NatWest Group, nor would surpluses achieved by NatWest Group be passed on to the government, other than through any dividends paid as a result of the government equity holdings.

Public sector current budget deficit

Public sector current budget deficit is the gap between current expenditure and current receipts on an accrued basis, having taken account of depreciation.

The current budget is in surplus when receipts are greater than expenditure.

Public sector current expenditure

Current expenditure measures reflect the cost of the public sector's day-to-day activities. For example, in the case of central government these include:

• providing services and grants (for example, related to education, defence, and health and social care) -- including the recent coronavirus job furlough schemes

• payment of social benefits (such as pensions, unemployment payments, Child Benefit and Statutory Maternity Pay)

• payment of the interest on the government's outstanding debt

Public sector debt interest to revenue ratio

The debt interest to revenue ratio (DIR) represents the proportion of net interest paid (gross interest paid less interest received) by the public sector (excluding public sector banks), compared with the non-interest receipts it receives in a given period.

Public sector net borrowing

Public sector net borrowing excluding public sector banks (PSNB ex) measures the gap between revenue raised (current receipts) and total spending (current expenditure plus net investment (capital spending less capital receipts)). PSNB is often referred to by commentators as "the deficit".

Public sector net cash requirement

The public sector net cash requirement (PSNCR) represents the cash needed to be raised from the financial markets over a period of time to finance the government's activities. This can be close to borrowing (the deficit) for the same period; however, there are some transactions, for example, loans to the private sector, that need to be financed but do not contribute to the deficit. It is also close but not identical to the changes in the level of net debt between two points in time.

Public sector net debt

Public sector net debt excluding public sector banks (PSND ex) represents the amount of money the public sector owes to private sector organisations. These include overseas institutions, largely as a result of issuing gilts and Treasury Bills, minus the amount of cash and other short-term assets it holds. PSND is often referred to by commentators as "the national debt".

Public sector net investment

Public sector net investment is the sum of all capital spending, mainly net acquisitions of capital assets and capital grants, less the depreciation of the stock of capital assets.

Public sector net financial liabilities

Public sector net financial liabilities excluding public sector banks (PSNFL ex) is a comprehensive measure of the public sector balance sheet, capturing a wider range of financial assets and liabilities than recorded in PSND ex.

PSNFL ex is very similar to the national accounts concept of public sector net financial worth (PSNFW), all be it that they are expressed with opposite signs. The notable difference between the two aggregates is that in PSNFL ex, the deposit, loan and debt security liabilities are recorded at face value, whereas in PSNFW these assets and liabilities are recorded at market value.

Gross domestic product

Gross domestic product (GDP) measures the value of goods and services produced in the UK. It estimates the size of and growth in the economy.

GDP used to present debt and other headline measures are partly based on provisional and official forecast data. Our November 2021 estimate of monthly GDP requires data across five quarters of GDP. Of these, two are based on the quarterly national accounts published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 11 November 2021 and three are based on the Office for Budget Responsibility's Economic and Fiscal Outlook (October 2021) .

Total managed expenditure

Total managed expenditure (TME) covers all current and capital spending carried out by the public sector, including depreciation. This is equal to public sector current expenditure, plus public sector net investment, plus deprecation.

Economic statistics governance after EU exit

Following the UK's exit from the EU, new governance arrangements are being put in place that will support the adoption and implementation of high-quality standards for UK economic statistics. These governance arrangements will promote international comparability and add to the credibility and independence of the UK's statistical system.

At the centre of this new governance framework will be the new National Statistician's Committee for Advice on Standards for Economic Statistics (NSCASE). NSCASE will support the UK by ensuring its processes for influencing and adopting international statistical standards are world-leading. The advice NSCASE provides to the National Statistician will span the full range of domains in economic statistics, including the National Accounts, fiscal statistics, prices, trade and the balance of payments and labour market statistics.

Further information about NSCASE can be found in the article National Statistician's Committee for Advice on Standards for Economic Statistics (NSCASE) – UK Statistics Authority.

Comparisons with official forecasts

The independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is responsible for the production of official forecasts for the government. These forecasts are usually produced twice a year, in spring and autumn.

Central government resource accounts

Most central government departments usually publish their audited resource accounts by August of each year, enabling us to reflect them in the September publication. Because of the exceptional demands of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, a number of central government departments are yet to publish their audited accounts for the FYE (financial year ending) March 2021. We will reflect updates from audited outturn in our dataset at the earliest opportunity.

Local government and public corporations

In recent years, planned local government expenditure initially reported in local authority budgets has been systematically higher than the final outturn expenditure reported in the audited accounts. We therefore include adjustments, usually to reduce the amounts reported at the budget stage.

For FYE March 2021 we have applied a £0.6 billion downward adjustment to provisional current expenditure on benefits in FYE 2021, to reflect the most recently available data for housing benefits.

For FYE 2022 we include:

• a £0.5 billion downward adjustment to Scotland's capital expenditure

• a £0.4 billion downward adjustment to Wales' capital expenditure

• a £6.0 billion upward adjustment to England's current expenditure on goods and services

We apply a further £0.6 billion downward adjustment to budget forecast current expenditure on benefits in FYE 2022, to reflect the most recently available data for housing benefits.

Public corporations' data in the most recent periods are initial estimates, largely based on the OBR Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) – October 2021, with adjustments being applied as needed. Data supplied by the Department for Transport have been used in implementing the reclassification of train operating companies under emergency measures for the FYE 2021.

UK Asset Resolution Ltd (UKAR)

Having completed final £5 billion sale of Bradford & Bingley plc and NRAM Limited in February 2021 and following approval by the Financial Conduct Authority, ownership of Bradford & Bingley (B&B)and Northern Rock Asset Management (NRAM) has now moved from UK Asset Resolution Limited (UKAR) to Davidson Kempner.

UKAR remains a central government organisation responsible for meeting the contractual obligations and managing the remaining liabilities and other strategic matters arising out of the Government's former ownership of NRAM, B&B and their respective subsidiaries.

We will undertake a formal classification review of NRAM and B&B at the earliest opportunity.

To supplement this release we publish an accompanying methodological guide and Quality and Methodology Information outlining the strengths, limitations, and appropriate uses of the public sector finance dataset.