Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators: 7 July 2022

• A net 50% of trading businesses reported an increase in the prices of goods or services bought in June 2022, compared with May 2022; in comparison, a net 19% of businesses reported an increase in the prices of goods or services sold over the same period (initial results from Wave 60 of the Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS)). Section 3.

• London had the highest increase in online job adverts in the week to 1 July 2022, with an increase of 13%, while at the UK level "accounting and finance" and "management, executive and consulting" had similar increases (Adzuna). Section 3.

• The UK credit and debit card purchases indicator increased by 2 percentage points in the latest week to 102% of its February 2020 average; meanwhile, the Office for National Statistics' (ONS’) monthly calculations of this monthly CHAPS-based indicator fell by 3 percentage points from May to June 2022, with "work-related" spending, which includes spending on road fuel, the only category to rise (2%) during this period (Bank of England CHAPS data, Office for National Statistics calculations). Section 4.

• Consumer behaviour indicators showed increased activity this week, as UK seated diners increased by 12 percentage points, transit station visits rose by 5% from the previous week and transactions at the majority of Pret A Manger store locations also increased; these increases follow falls reported last week, which coincided with rail industrial action in parts of Great Britain (OpenTable, Google Mobility, Pret A Manger). Section 4.

• Transport indicators showed a mixed picture this week, with total ship visits, and cargo and tanker ship visits increasing by 5% and 7%, respectively; meanwhile, daily UK flights and road traffic were both broadly unchanged from the previous week (exactEarth, EUROCONTROL, Department for Transport). Section 5.

• The System Average Price (SAP) of gas decreased by 13% in the week to 3 July 2022, decreasing to 34% of the peak level seen on 10 March 2022 (National Grid). Section 6.

Notes:

1. The break in the available shipping data (from 14 to 19 June 2021) is when the data collection system changed.
2. Shipping data for 9 to 21 May 2022 have been removed because of technical issues.

The proportion of trading businesses reporting a decrease in turnover almost doubled in June 2022 compared with May 2022, while 51% of businesses reported an increase in the price of goods or services bought in June 2022.

Online job adverts showed increases in most categories, and regions and countries of the UK, with total adverts increasing by 5%, although small business jobs remain lower than the equivalent month of 2019 at 91%.

Potential redundancies were 52% of their pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) level in the week to 26 June 2022.

Business impact and insights

Initial results from Wave 60 of the Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) cover the reference period 1 June to 30 June 2022, with a response rate of 20.3% (7,726 responses). The survey was live for the period 27 June to 5 July 2022.

Notes:

1. Initial weighted results, Wave 60 of the Office for National Statistics' (ONS') Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS).
2. Table may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
3. Net turnover balance is given by subtracting the percentage of businesses reporting a decrease in turnover, from the percentage of businesses who reported an increase in turnover.

Notes:

1. Initial weighted results, Wave 60 of the Office for National Statistics' (ONS') Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS).
2. Table may not sum to 100% because of rounding and percentages less than 1% being removed for disclosure purposes.
3. Net balance is given by subtracting the percentage of businesses reporting prices have increased, from the percentage of businesses who reported prices have decreased.

Online job adverts

These figures are experimental estimates of online job adverts provided by Adzuna, an online job search engine, by category and by UK country and English region. The number of job adverts over time is an indicator of the demand for labour. The Adzuna categories used do not correspond to Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) categories, so these values are not directly comparable with the Office for National Statistics' (ONS) Vacancy Survey.

Figure 1: The number of online job adverts increased by 5% in the week to 1 July 2022, to 128% of the February 2020 average

Volume of online job adverts by category, index: 100 = February 2020 average, 4 January 2019 to 1 July 2022, non-seasonally adjusted

Notes:

1. Further category breakdowns are included in the Online job advert estimates dataset and more details on the methodology can be found in Using Adzuna data to derive an indicator of weekly vacancies.
2. Users should note that week-on-week changes in online job advert volumes are outlined as percentages, rather than as percentage point changes. Percentage change figures quoted in the commentary will therefore not necessarily match the percentage point changes observed in the charts and accompanying dataset.

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Of the 28 job categories, three showed a decrease, the largest of which was "travel and tourism", which fell by 8%. The category with the highest increase was "accounting and finance" at 14%, followed by "management, executive and consulting" at 13%.

The categories with the highest number of online job adverts relative to their February 2020 average continue to be "domestic help" and "transport, logistics and warehouse", at 233% and 223%, respectively.

Figure 2: London had the highest increase (13%) in online job adverts in the week to 1 July 2020, to 122% of the February 2020 average

Volume of online job adverts by UK countries and English regions, index: 100 = February 2020 average, 7 February 2020 to 1 July 2022, non-seasonally adjusted

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Value added tax (VAT) diffusion indices

Turnover diffusion indices are an aggregate measure used to track whether most firms are reporting an increase or decrease in turnover in their VAT returns. They are calculated as the percentage of firms with increasing turnover minus the percentage with decreasing turnover. More information on the compilation and methodology of these estimates can be found in the Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology.

These data are featured here instead of the flash VAT estimates that were unavailable at the time of normal publication. These "month 2" indices are a later snapshot of the data but with a bigger sample size. Therefore, they are similar to, but not directly comparable with, the regular flash estimates.

UK seated diners increased by 12 percentage points in the week to 3 July 2022 following the 16 percentage point decrease in the previous week, to 123% of the level in the equivalent week of 2019.

The UK credit and debit card purchases indicator increased by 2 percentage points to 102% of its February 2020 average in the week to 30 June 2022. The largest increases were in the "work-related" and "delayable" categories, which increased by 8 percentage points and 4 percentage points, respectively.

Transactions at Pret A Manger stores increased at almost all locations in the latest week, except regional towns and Yorkshire where they were broadly unchanged.

Google Mobility data showed that visits to "retail and recreation" locations were broadly unchanged in the week to 1 July 2022 compared with the previous week. Visits to "transit stations" increased by 5% following the fall the previous week that coincided with industrial action on Great Britain's railways. "Park visits" and "grocery & pharmacy visits" were the only categories above their pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) average, at 144% and 107%, respectively.

Visits to "retail and recreation" locations in London remain well below pre-coronavirus pandemic levels (79%), lagging behind the other UK regions, but show the largest growth in the latest week, up 5% compared with the previous week and up 16% compared with the same time last year.

UK spending on debit and credit cards: daily CHAPS-based indicator

These data series are experimental real-time indicators for estimating UK spending on credit and debit cards. They track the daily CHAPS payments made by credit and debit card payment processors to around 100 major UK retail corporates. These payments are the proceeds of recent credit and debit card transactions made by customers at their stores, both via physical and via online platforms. More information on the indicator is provided in the accompanying methodology article.   

Companies are allocated to one of four categories based on their primary business:

• "staples" refers to companies that sell essential goods that households need to purchase, such as food and utilities   

• "work-related" refers to companies providing public transport or selling petrol   

• "delayable" refers to companies selling goods whose purchase could be delayed, such as clothing or furnishings

• "social" refers to spending on travel and eating out

Figure 3 shows changes in the value of CHAPS payments received by large UK corporates from their credit and debit card processors, which are known as "merchant acquirers".  

The spending categories recorded the following changes in the latest week:

• "work-related" (which includes spending on road fuel) increased by 8 percentage points

• "delayable" increased by 4 percentage points

• "staple" increased by 1 percentage point

• "social" remained broadly unchanged

"Work-related" and "staple" spending were above their February 2020 average levels at 141% and 113%, respectively. "Social" and "delayable" spending remained below their February 2020 average levels at 99% and 86%, respectively.

"Work-related" spending, which includes spending on road fuel, is now 23 percentage points higher than it was ten weeks ago (the week to 21 April 2022).

UK spending on debit and credit cards: monthly CHAPS-based indicator

The monthly CHAPS-based indicator of aggregate credit and debit card spending was at 101% of its February 2020 average level in June 2022. This is 3 percentage points lower than in May 2022 (104%) but 6 percentage points higher than June 2021 (95%).

The largest fall in spending for the monthly CHAP-based indicator from May to June 2022 was for "social" spending, which fell by 7 percentage points, while "delayable" spending fell by 4 percentage points. "Work-related" spending, which includes spending on road fuel, was the only category to increase over the same period, rising by 2 percentage points. This is the fifth consecutive month that "work-related" spending has increased, coinciding with rising road fuel costs.

The monthly data time series is available in the accompanying CHAPS dataset and includes methodological notes that users should bear in mind. The monthly CHAPS index is calculated by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), rather than being an additional series that is produced and validated by the Bank of England.

Transactions at Pret A Manger

Pret A Manger is a sandwich and coffee shop franchise chain, operating around 400 stores across the UK. Its transactional data are presented as an index and show total weekly till transactions at Pret A Manger shops as a proportion of the average weekly level in the first four weeks of 2020 (between Friday 3 January and Thursday 30 January 2020). Because of this comparison across the data time series, users should expect an element of seasonality in the data.

More information on the areas featured is available in our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology. These data are also made available every Tuesday through the Bloomberg Pret Index.

Following large falls in the previous week that corresponded with rail industrial action in parts of Great Britain, London city worker store transactions rose by 24 percentage points in the latest week and were 86% of the January 2020 average. London west end and London suburban stores also rose by 11 and 3 percentage points, respectively, in the latest week.

OpenTable seated diners

In the latest week, the seven-day average estimate of seated diners in London increased by 19 percentage points and was 94% of the level seen in the equivalent week of 2020.

Transport indicators showed a mixed picture in the latest week. Total ship visits increased by 5%, and cargo and tracker visits increased by 7%, compared with the previous week.

In the week ending 3 July 2022, the seasonally adjusted average count of traffic camera activity for cars in London decreased by 3% but remains at 117% of its pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic level; this follows increases in the previous week that coincided with rail industrial action seen in parts of Great Britain. Meanwhile, the seasonally adjusted average count of traffic camera activity for cars in the North East remained unchanged from the previous week, at 100% of its pre-coronavirus pandemic level (Transport for London, North East Traffic Cameras). Our accompanying dataset is available.

Daily UK flight levels compared with the equivalent week of 2019 were at 85% in the week to 3 July 2022, unchanged from the previous week. Our accompanying dataset is available.

Road traffic on Monday 4 July 2022 was broadly unchanged from the previous week at 100% of the level seen on the Monday of the first week in February 2020.

Shipping

A changeover in the systems used to collect shipping data has introduced a level shift in the data time series from 14 June 2021 onwards. Users should not make comparisons between data before and after this date. The data produced before the change, from 1 April 2019 to 13 June 2021, can still be compared within that period.

A full methodological review of our current method of shipping data collection is under way and data may be subject to revision once this is complete. We will continue to update the accompanying weekly shipping dataset using the current method until the review is complete, which is likely to conclude in summer 2022.

UK flight data

These data are daily flight figures from the European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation (EUROCONTROL). Daily flight numbers for the UK alongside other countries are available in EUROCONTROL's dashboard. EUROCONTROL is a pan-European, civil-military organisation dedicated to supporting European aviation. Its Aviation Intelligence and Performance Review Unit provides independent collection and validation of air navigation services' performance-related data and intelligence gathering.

The flights data include international arrivals and departures to and from the UK (including Crown dependencies) and domestic UK flights but exclude overflights (flights that pass over UK territory). They capture all flight movements that operate under Instrument Flight Rules (IFR), where the pilot uses instruments in the flight deck to control, guide and adjust the plane. This includes commercial flights carrying passengers and cargo as well as non-commercial flights such as private and military flights.

Data from EUROCONTROL do not include information on the volume of passengers or cargo carried on UK flights. Especially in the context of the coronavirus pandemic, flights might not be operating at full capacity and therefore trends in passengers and cargo will differ from trends in flights presented here.

The seven-day average number of UK daily flights was unchanged from the previous week (5,646) and was at 85% of the level seen in the equivalent week of 2019. This is the ninth consecutive week where the number of flights has been broadly stable at 85% of its equivalent week in 2019.

The full data time series available for UK flights can be found in the accompanying daily UK flights dataset, which contains daily flight numbers and the rolling seven-day averages.

System Average Price (SAP) of gas

This is the average price of all gas traded through the balancing market. Market participants post bids or offers for volumes of gas a day-ahead and within-day trades. The SAP aggregates the trades conducted on the On-the-Day Commodity Market (OCM). This is the market that the National Grid use in their role as residual balancer. Other markets exist for wholesale gas trading in Great Britain.

These data can be used to understand the general trend of gas prices within the UK. However, the data should be treated with caution as these can be subject to extreme within-day trading prices and may skew actual traded prices. It must also be noted that while these prices reflect spot prices on the day, traders can opt for futures contracts where the buyer and the seller agree the market-determined price for gas for a future date. The daily SAP is used to determine the futures price and is therefore a useful indicator of supply constraints and demand pressures.

On 3 July 2022, the average SAP price decreased by 13% to 5.2 pence per kilowatt hour. This follows two consecutive week-on-week increases of 64% and 11%, respectively.

The full data time series of actual-day SAP and the preceding seven-day average, including data from 2018 to the present, can be found in the accompanying dataset.

Users should note that this section lists a selection of the data available with this publication. For the full list of available datasets, please see the accompanying dataset page.

Real-time indicator

A real-time indicator provides insights into economic activity using close-to-real-time big data, administrative data sources, rapid response surveys or Experimental Statistics, which represent useful economic and social concepts.

Diffusion index

The diffusion index tracks the growth in turnover and expenditure of firms. It is constructed to lie between negative 1 and 1. For example, if 65% of firms have increasing turnover, 30% have decreasing turnover and 5% turnover remains unchanged, then the diffusion index is 0.35.

Information on the methodology used to produce the indicators in this bulletin is available in the Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology.

These statistics have been produced to provide timely indicators of the effect of developing world events on the UK economy and society, using close-to-real-time big data, administrative data sources, rapid response surveys or Experimental Statistics.

The data presented in this bulletin are reviewed and refreshed on a regular basis. Indicators are swapped in and out of the publication based on their suitability and availability.

UK coronavirus (COVID-19) restrictions

A full overview of coronavirus restrictions for each of the four UK constituent countries can be found in the:

• coronavirus in England guidance

• coronavirus in Scotland guidance

• coronavirus in Wales guidance

• coronavirus in Northern Ireland guidance

These restrictions should be considered when interpreting the data featured throughout this bulletin.

Seasonality

Seasonal fluctuations are likely to be present in many of these indicators so caution must be applied when interpreting changes in series that are not seasonally adjusted.