Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators: 20 February 2025

• Total Revolut debit card spending decreased by 9% in January 2025 compared with the previous month but increased by 7% when compared with January 2024 (Revolut). Section 3: Consumer behaviour.

• The seasonally adjusted "Total" Direct Debit failure rate increased by 1% in January 2025 compared with December 2024; this was partly caused by a 4% rise in failure rates for "Electricity and Gas" and a 1% rise in "Water" (Vocalink and Pay.UK). Section 3: Consumer behaviour.

• Overall retail footfall increased by 4% in the week to 16 February 2025 from the previous week but was 9% lower than in the equivalent week of 2024 (MRI OnLocation). Section 3: Consumer behaviour.

• In our latest Opinions and Lifestyle Survey (OPN), 56% of adults reported that their cost of living had increased in the past month; when asked about how, 89% of these reported that the price of their food shop had increased while 79% reported that their gas or electricity bills had increased (initial findings for January 2025 from our OPN, publishing on 21 February 2025).

• The number of new online job adverts decreased by 16% in January 2025 when compared with January 2024 (Textkernel). Section 4: Business and workforce.

• The System Average Price (SAP) of gas increased by 10% to 4.222p/kWh in the month of January 2025, compared with the previous month, while the System price of electricity increased by 44% to 12.405p/kWh over the same period (Elexon, National Gas Transmission). Section 5: Energy.

• In the week to 16 February, both the average number of daily UK flights and the total number of ship visits to major UK ports increased, by 7% and 3%, respectively; when compared with the equivalent week of 2024, ship visits decreased by 1% whereas the number of flights increased by 3% (exactEarth, EUROCONTROL). Section 6: Transport.

• The number of Energy Performance Building Certificates (EPCs) in the month to January 2025 for new dwellings across England and Wales, decreased by 27% when compared with January 2024; for existing dwellings, it increased by 3% (Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government). Section 7: Housing.

Notes:

1. Card spending over time is pushed upwards by the impacts of both inflation on value of transactions and cash-to-card conversion.
2. Revolut adjustments to user count are at an aggregate level and as such age bands may not adjust evenly.
3. Indicators with SA in the title have been seasonally adjusted.

Monthly Direct Debit average transaction amount and failure rate

In January 2025, the seasonally adjusted “Total” Direct Debit failure rate increased by 1% when compared with December 2024. This increase was partly caused by a 4% rise in failure rates for “Electricity and Gas” and a 1% rise in failure rates for “Water”. While both “Loans” and “Mortgages” saw a 2% decrease over the same period.

When compared with January 2024, the seasonally adjusted “Total” Direct Debit failure rate rose by 2% in January 2025. This was partly caused by increases in failure rates of 16% for “Electricity and gas” and 10% for “Water” and decreases in failure rates of 7%, and 4% for “Mortgages”, and “Loans”, respectively.

The seasonally adjusted “Total” Direct Debit average transaction amount remained broadly unchanged in January 2025 when compared with December 2024. For this period, Direct Debit average transaction amounts rose by 2% for “Water”, but fell by 3% for “Loans”. For both “Electricity and Gas” and “Mortgages”, the average transaction amount remained broadly unchanged.

When compared with January 2024, the seasonally adjusted “Total” Direct Debit average transaction amount increased by 1%. This was partly caused by rises in average transaction amounts of 12% for “Water” and 8% for “Mortgages” but countered by a 9% decrease in average transaction amount for “Electricity and Gas”.

The monthly Direct Debit failure rate and average transaction amount are anonymised and aggregated datasets made available to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) by Pay.UK and Vocalink. The data are unadjusted for inflation and reflect economic activity in nominal terms.

For further details on what is covered within this indicator, see our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology.

Our accompanying Monthly Direct Debit failure rate and average transaction amount dataset is available.

Revolut spending on debit cards

Total Revolut debit card spending decreased by 9% in the month of January 2025 when compared with December 2024. This is in line with seasonal expectations for January spending.

When compared with January 2024, total Revolut debit card spending increased by 7%.

Our accompanying Revolut spending on debit cards dataset is available.

National retail footfall

In the week to 16 February 2025, footfall increased across all three location categories with high streets, retail parks, and shopping centres seeing footfall increases of 4%, 5%, and 3%, respectively. When compared with the equivalent week of 2024, high street footfall decreased by 13% and shopping centre footfall decreased by 10%, while retail park footfall remained broadly unchanged.

When compared with the previous week, overall retail footfall increased in 8 of the 12 UK regions. The largest increase was in Scotland, which increased by 8% when compared with the previous week, while the largest decrease was in Yorkshire and the Humber, which fell by 15%. When compared with the previous year, decreases were seen for 9 of the 12 regions, with increases only been seen for the North West and Northern Ireland at 2% and 10%, respectively. Yorkshire and the Humber was the only UK country or region where it remained broadly unchanged.

Automotive fuel spending

In the week to 16 February, the average fuel price increased by 6 percentage points when compared with the equivalent week in 2024, while the average automotive fuel demand decreased by 1 percentage point.

In the month of January 2025, the average fuel price increased by 3 percentage points compared with the previous month and increased by 7 percentage points when compared with the equivalent month of 2024.

Average automotive fuel demand decreased by 1 percentage point compared with the previous month and decreased by 3 percentage points when compared with the equivalent month of 2024.

Our accompanying Automotive fuel spending dataset is available.

Textkernel new online job adverts

Details on the methods used to compile these estimates are available in our Measuring labour demand volumes across the UK using Textkernel data user guide. For further detailed tables using similar methodology and sources, see our Labour demand by Standard Occupation Classification datasets.

The most recent data show that in January 2025, the number of new adverts increased by 62% when compared with December 2024, in line with seasonal expectations. The volume increased from around 0.4 million adverts in December 2024 to 0.7 million adverts in January 2025. When compared with January 2024, the number of new adverts decreased by 16%.

Figure 5: London had the largest annual percentage decrease in new adverts in January 2025, falling by 28% when compared to January 2024

Volume of new adverts, UK countries and English regions, January 2018 to January 2025, non-seasonally adjusted

Notes:

1. New adverts represent the total number of adverts that have gone online in the month, calculated by counting the number of adverts that appear for the first time across the calendar month.
2. Counts are rounded to the nearest 5.
3. For information on how adverts were assigned to geographical locations, see measuring labour demand volumes across the UK using Textkernel data user guide.

Download the data

The largest annual percentage decrease in new adverts in January 2025 was in London, falling by 28% when compared with January 2024. Similarly, the volume of new adverts in the North East saw a fall of 18%, while those in Wales fell by 17% and in the North West by 16%. Northern Ireland was the only UK country or English region that saw an increase in new adverts, rising by 8% on the year.

The number of new adverts was lower in 22 of the 26 occupation groups in January 2025 when compared with January 2024. The groups that saw the largest percentage decreases in the volume of new adverts over this period were "Science, research, engineering and technology professionals" and "Business, media and public service professionals", which fell by 32% and 28%, respectively.

The group with the largest percentage increase in the volume of new adverts over the same period was "Community and civil enforcement occupations", which increased by 33%. However, the total number of adverts was relatively small in comparison to other groups of occupations. 

Our accompanying Textkernel new online job adverts dataset is available, and further detailed data by local authority district and granular occupation are also available.

Business impact and insights

The Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) collects data from selected industries and does not have full coverage of the UK economy. For more information on the industries covered in the BICS sample, see our Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) QMI.  

To enable comparisons, we have created a reweighted gross domestic product (GDP) estimate, termed as GDP*, which only includes the same industries as those covered within the BICS.

Approximately 1 in 6 (16%) trading businesses reported that their turnover had increased in January 2025 compared with the previous calendar month, up 2 percentage points from December 2024. The proportion that reported a decrease (28%) fell by 2 percentage points over the same period, in line with movements seen at this time of the year in 2023 and 2024.

Advanced notification of potential redundancies

The number of potential redundancies in the four weeks to 9 February 2025 was 9% higher than the equivalent week of 2024. The number of employers proposing redundancies was 4% lower when compared over the same period.

Comparisons with the equivalent period a year ago help account for any seasonal impacts. For more information, our accompanying Advanced notification of potential redundancies dataset is available.

System Average Price of gas 

The System Average Price of gas increased by 10% in January 2025 compared with the previous month, from a monthly average price of 3.828 pence per kilowatt hour (p/kWh) to 4.222p/kWh. This was 64% higher than January 2024, which had a monthly average price of 2.570p/kWh.

Our accompanying System Average Price of gas dataset is available.

System Price of electricity

The System price of electricity increased by 44% in January 2025 compared with the previous month, from a monthly average price of 8.599p/kWh to 12.405p/kWh. This was 69% higher than in January 2024, which had a monthly average price of 7.358p/kWh.

Our accompanying System Price of electricity dataset is available.

Daily UK flights

In the week to 16 February 2025, the daily average number of flights increased by 7% when compared with the previous week and increased by 3% compared with the equivalent week of 2024.

Our accompanying Daily UK flights dataset is available.

Weekly shipping indicators

In the week to 16 February 2025, the weekly count of total ships visiting selected UK ports increased by 3% compared with the previous week. For this period, the weekly count of cargo ship and tanker visits decreased by 4%.

When compared with the equivalent week of 2024, the total number of ship visits decreased by 1%, while visits from cargo ships and tankers decreased by 6%.

Our accompanying Weekly shipping indicators dataset is available.

Energy Performance Building Certificates

The total number of Energy Performance Building Certificates (EPCs) for new dwelling across England and Wales decreased by 27% in the month to January 2025, when compared with the previous month, in line with seasonal trends. For existing dwellings, it increased by 19% over the same period.

When compared with the equivalent month of 2024, the total number of EPCs for new dwellings decreased by 27% and the number of EPCs for existing dwellings increased by 3%.

Our accompanying Energy Performance Building Certificates (EPC) dataset is available The Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government's weekly EPCs for domestic properties dataset is available.

Real-time indicator

A real-time indicator provides insights into economic activity using close-to-real-time big data, administrative data sources, rapid response surveys or experimental estimates, which represent useful economic and social concepts.

Seasonal adjustment

Seasonal adjustment is the identification and removal of consistent and systematic variation in time series associated with the time of year. For more information on seasonal variation, and how we implement seasonal adjustment, see Section 2 of our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology article.

Official statistics in development

These statistics are labelled as official statistics in development. Read more about this in our Guide to official statistics in development.

We are constantly seeking to develop how we collect and produce the data to improve the quality of our statistics. Find out more about this in our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology article.

We will review these statistics with the Statistics Head of Profession when appropriate. We will decide if the statistics are of sufficient quality and value to be published as official statistics, or if further development is needed. Production may be stopped if they are not of sufficient quality or value. Users will be informed of any outcomes and or changes.  

We value your feedback on these statistics. If you would like to get in touch, please email realtime.indicators@ons.gov.uk.

Dataset release dates and intended release frequency

Latest release dates and intended release frequency of our associated datasets are available in this section. Please note that there may be some change to the intended release frequency for a variety of reasons, such as data availability. If you would like further information about any of these datasets, or previous release dates, please email realtime.indicators@ons.gov.uk.

Weekly data release 

• UK credit and debit card payments; updated 5 December 2024.

• Revolut spending on debit cards dataset; updated 20 February 2025.

• Automotive fuel spending dataset; updated 20 February 2025.

• Company incorporations, voluntary dissolutions and compulsory dissolutions dataset; updated 30 January 2025.

• Advanced notification of potential redundancies dataset; updated 20 February 2025.

• System Average price of gas dataset; updated 20 February 2025.

• System Price of electricity dataset; updated 20 February 2025.

• Energy Performance Building Certificates (EPC) dataset; updated 20 February 2025.

• Weekly shipping indicators dataset; updated 20 February 2025.

• Daily UK flights dataset; updated 20 February 2025.

Monthly data release

• Monthly Direct Debit failure rate and average transaction amount dataset; updated 20 January 2025.

• Textkernel new online job adverts dataset; updated 20 February 2025.

• Value Added Tax (VAT) flash estimates dataset; updated 17 October 2024.

• Renter affordability for new tenancies dataset; updated 6 February 2025.

Quarterly data release

• Sales and jobs in small businesses dataset; updated 7 November 2024.

Discontinued data series

• Transactions at Pret A Manger dataset; final update October 2024.

• Online job advert estimates dataset; final update October 2024.

Strengths and limitations

These statistics have been produced to provide timely indicators of the effect of developing world events on the UK economy and society, using close-to-real-time big data, administrative data sources, rapid response surveys, or official statistics in development.

The data presented in this bulletin are reviewed and refreshed on a regular basis. Indicators are swapped in and out of the publication based on their suitability and availability.

Seasonality

Seasonal fluctuations are likely to be present in many of these indicators, so caution must be applied when interpreting changes in series that are not seasonally adjusted.