Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators: 1 December 2023

• In the week to 26 November 2023, "retail" spending on Revolut debit cards increased by 17%, when compared with the previous week, as expected from Black Friday promotions and pre-Christmas spending patterns (Revolut). Section 3: Consumer behaviour. 

• The total number of online job adverts on 24 November 2023 remained unchanged when compared with the previous week, and decreased by 14% when compared with the equivalent period in 2022 (Adzuna). Section 4: Business and workforce. 

• Less than 1 in 10 (9%) businesses were experiencing worker shortages in late November 2023, with 44% of those businesses reporting they were unable to meet demands as a consequence (final results from Wave 96 of the Business Insights and Conditions Survey). 

• The System Price of electricity decreased by 7% when compared with the previous week and decreased by 42% when compared with the equivalent week of 2022 (Elexon). Section 5: Energy. 

• When compared with the same period of 2022, the average number of daily ship visits decreased by 2%, while average daily UK flights increased by 10% (exactEarth, EUROCONTROL). Section 6: Transport.

Notes:

1. Card spending over time is pushed upwards by the impacts of both inflation on value of transactions and cash-to-card conversion. 
2. Indicators with SA in the title have been seasonally adjusted.

UK spending on debit and credit cards: weekly, seasonally adjusted CHAPS-based indicator 

In the week to 23 November 2023, the aggregate seasonally adjusted CHAPS-based indicator of credit and debit card purchases remained unchanged when compared with the previous week. It decreased by 1% when compared with the same week in 2022. 

Our accompanying UK spending on debit and credit cards dataset is available. 

Revolut spending on debit cards 

Total Revolut debit card spending increased by 9% in the week to 26 November 2023 when compared with the previous week. Three of six spending sectors increased, two remained the same, and one decreased in the week. 

The largest increase in the week was in "retail" spending, which grew by 17%. These data are not seasonally adjusted and as such, this increase is in line with expected Black Friday weekend and pre-Christmas spending patterns. 

Total Revolut debit card spending is 6% higher than the level seen in the equivalent week in 2022. Five of the six spending sectors increased in this time, with "food and drink" reporting the largest increase of 11%. "Pubs restaurants and fast food" decreased by 3% when compared with the equivalent week of 2022. 

Our accompanying Revolut spending on debit cards dataset is available. 

Automotive fuel spending 

In the week to 19 November 2023, the estimated growth in demand for fuel per transaction increased by 1 percentage point when compared with the previous week. When compared with the equivalent week of 2022, it increased by 9 percentage points. 

Average growth in fuel prices remained unchanged in the week to 19 November 2023 when compared with the previous week. This was the third week in a row where growth remained unchanged. This value is 26 percentage points below the equivalent week of 2022. 

Our accompanying Automotive fuel spending dataset is available. 

Transactions at Pret A Manger 

In the week to the 23 November 2023, the number of in-store transactions at Pret A Manger stores increased in seven of the location categories, decreased in two and remained broadly unchanged in one. The largest increase was seen in Yorkshire at 8%, followed by Manchester and London West End, both at 4%. The largest decrease was seen at London Airports, falling by 2%. 

Compared with the equivalent period in 2022, the number of in-store transactions at Pret A Manger increased in seven of the location categories, decreased in two and remained broadly unchanged in one. The largest increase was seen in regional towns, rising by 46%, while the largest decrease was at London Stations, falling by 3%. 

Our accompanying Transactions at Pret A Manger dataset is available.

Business impact and insights 

The Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) collects data from selected industries and does not have full coverage of the UK economy. For more information on the industries covered in the BICS sample, see our Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) QMI.  

To enable comparisons, we have created a reweighted gross domestic product (GDP) estimate, termed as GDP*. This only includes the Industries covered within the BICS.

Online job adverts

The total number of online job adverts remained unchanged on 24 November 2023 when compared with the previous week. When comparing with the equivalent period in 2022, total online job adverts decreased by 14%. However, they remained 2% above the pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic baseline (February 2020).

In the week to 24 November 2023, the category that saw the largest increase in online job adverts was the “scientific and QA” sector. This increased by 11% when compared with the previous week. The largest decreases were seen in the “wholesale and retail” and the “transport, logistics and warehouse” sectors, both falling by 6% when compared with the previous week.

Our accompanying Online job advert estimates is available.

Advanced notification of potential redundancies

Calculated as a rolling four-week average, the number of potential redundancies in the week to 19 November 2023 was 50% above the level in the equivalent week of 2022. The number of employers proposing redundancies was 25% above the equivalent week of 2022.

Comparisons with the equivalent period a year ago help to account for any seasonal effects.

Our accompanying Advanced notification of potential redundancies is available.

System Price of electricity 

In the week to 26 November 2023, the System Price of electricity decreased by 7% when compared with the previous week and decreased by 42% when compared with the equivalent week of 2022. 

Our accompanying System Price of electricity dataset is available.

Weekly shipping indicators 

In the week to 26 November 2023, the average number of daily ship visits decreased by 4%, going from 176 to 168 daily visits from the previous week. The average number of daily visits from cargo and tanker ships decreased by 7%, over the same period. 

When compared with the same period of 2022, the average daily number of ship visits decreased by 2% and cargo and tanker ship visits decreased by 5%. 

Our accompanying Weekly shipping indicators dataset is available. 

Daily UK flights 

In the week to 26 November 2023, the daily average number of UK flights was unchanged compared with the previous week and 10% higher than the equivalent week of 2022. 

Our accompanying Daily UK flights dataset is available.

This section lists a selection of the data available in this publication. For the full list of available datasets, please see our accompanying dataset page.

Real-time indicator 

A real-time indicator provides insights into economic activity using close-to-real-time big data, administrative data sources, rapid response surveys or Experimental Statistics, which represent useful economic and social concepts.

Information on the methodology used to produce the indicators in this bulletin is available in our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology.

These statistics have been produced to provide timely indicators of the effect of developing world events on the UK economy and society, using close-to-real-time big data, administrative data sources, rapid response surveys, or Experimental Statistics. 

The data presented in this bulletin are reviewed and refreshed on a regular basis. Indicators are swapped in and out of the publication based on their suitability and availability. 

UK coronavirus (COVID-19) restrictions 

Coronavirus restrictions should be considered when interpreting the data featured throughout this bulletin. 

Seasonality 

Seasonal fluctuations are likely to be present in many of these indicators so caution must be applied when interpreting changes in series that are not seasonally adjusted.