Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators: 22 October 2026

In September 2026:  

• Consumer behaviour was generally weaker than in August 2026; retail footfall and automotive fuel demand fell slightly, while both fuel prices and the seasonally adjusted Direct Debit failure rate rose (BT Active Intelligence, Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, Vocalink and Pay.UK). 

• Business and workforce indicators were mixed: a net 3% of firms reported increased turnover month-on-month, and the number of new online job adverts was higher than a year ago, but the number of potential redundancies increased, compared with both August 2026 and September 2025 (HM Revenue and Customs Value Added Tax returns, Insolvency Service HR1 forms, Textkernel).

• Wholesale energy prices were mixed, with gas prices increasing and electricity prices falling slightly compared with August 2026, while both increased when compared with September 2025 (National Gas Transmission, Elexon).

• The number of UK flights and the number of ship visits to selected UK ports both slightly increased when compared with September 2025 (EUROCONTROL, exactEarth).

• New vehicle registrations increased by 4% compared with August 2026 and increased by 10% when compared with September 2025 (The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders). 

• Housing market indicators were mixed: the number of new listings for property sales and rentals increased compared with August 2026, while the average time on market increased by 3% compared with September 2025; the number of Energy Performance Certificates (EPCs) lodged for new dwellings decreased by 4% over the same period (Rightmove, Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government). 

Notes: 

1. Card spending over time is pushed upwards by the impacts of both inflation on value of transactions and cash-to-card conversion.

2. Indicators with “SA” in the title have been seasonally adjusted. Indicators with “NSA” in the title have not been seasonally adjusted but do present seasonality. All other indicators do not present seasonality.

3. Users should be cautious when interpreting month-on-month changes in non-seasonally adjusted data, as some indicators (for example, retail footfall) are affected by calendar variation, including the number of days in a month.

4. Existing Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) data can show sudden spikes when housing associations lodge multiple expired EPCs at once.

Consumer activity was weaker in September 2026 than in August 2026. Retail footfall and automotive fuel demand decreased month-on-month, while Direct Debit average transaction amounts and failure rates continued to increase compared with the same month a year earlier. In contrast, Revolut debit card spending increased on the month and the year. 

UK retail footfall 

UK retail footfall decreased by 6% in September 2026, compared with August 2026, and decreased by 1% when compared with September 2025. 

Footfall decreased by 8% in retail parks and in town and city centres, and decreased by 5% in district or local centres, compared with the previous month. Footfall in both district or local centres and town and city centres remained broadly unchanged compared with last year, while footfall in retail parks decreased by 9% over the same period.

Footfall decreased in all 12 of the regions of the UK (including UK countries and English regions), when compared with August 2026. The largest decreases were in the devolved nations, with Scotland and Northern Ireland both falling by 13%, followed by Wales, which fell by 12%.  

When compared with September 2025, footfall only increased in London (up by 9%). Ten regions recorded decreases, with the largest being in Northern Ireland (down by 9%), Yorkshire and The Humber, and the West Midlands (both down by 8%). Scotland was the only region where footfall remained broadly unchanged.

Figure 2: Retail footfall decreased in all regions in September 2026 compared with the previous month

Change in retail footfall by region, UK, September 2026, non-seasonally adjusted

Notes:

1. Details of the methods used to compile these data are available in the BT Active Intelligence methodology.

2. Caution is advised when interpreting month-on-month changes which are affected by calendar variation, including the number of days in a month.

3. Data are available in further detail, broken down by region and site type, in our accompanying UK retail footfall dataset.

Revolut spending on debit cards

Seasonally adjusted Revolut debit card spending increased by 1% in September 2026 compared with August 2026. The largest increase from last month was "Services", at 3%.  

Seasonally adjusted Revolut debit card spending increased by 5% compared with September 2025, increasing in all nine categories. The largest increases were in "Entertainment" (up by 15%), "Transport" (up by 8%), "Utilities", and "Services" (both up by 7%). 

Our accompanying Revolut spending on debit cards dataset is available. 

Automotive fuel spending 

The annual growth rate of average automotive fuel prices increased by 6 percentage points in September 2026, compared with August 2026, and by 29 percentage points when compared with September 2025. 

Fuel price inflation remained high in September 2026 because of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The growth rate of the average quantity demanded per fuel transaction decreased by 1 percentage point, compared with August 2026, and by 11 percentage points when compared with September 2025.

Our accompanying Automotive fuel spending dataset is available.

Monthly Direct Debit average transaction amount and failure rate 

The seasonally adjusted total Direct Debit average transaction amount increased by 2% in September 2026, compared with September 2025. The largest year-on-year increases were for "Water" and "Mortgages", both rising by 4%. The only decreases were in "Loans" (down by 3%) and "Electricity and gas" (down by 1%).  

The seasonally adjusted Direct Debit failure rate increased from 2.3% in September 2025 to 2.4% in September 2026. The largest increases over this period were in  "Fitness facilities", which increased from 5.7% in September 2025 to 6.6% in September 2026, and "Loans", which increased from 4.7% to 5.1% over the same period. The only decrease was in "Electricity and gas", which fell from 2.8% to 2.3% over the same period.

For further details on what is covered within this indicator, see our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology. 

Our accompanying Monthly Direct Debit failure rate and average transaction amount dataset is available. 

More businesses reported an increase in turnover in September 2026 than reported a decrease, while potential redundancies increased compared with August 2026 and new online job adverts increased when compared with September 2025. 

Value Added Tax flash estimates 

Turnover diffusion indices are an aggregate measure used to track whether most firms are reporting an increase or a decrease in turnover in their Value Added Tax (VAT) returns.

Figure 5: The number of firms reporting an increased turnover in September 2026 was 3 percentage points higher than the number reporting a decreased turnover

Weighted Value Added Tax (VAT) month-on-month turnover diffusion indices, UK, January 2023 to September 2026, seasonally adjusted

Notes:

1. These data are current price, so may reflect elements of inflation.

2. The shaded areas represent the 95% confidence limits.

3. The confidence limits are 1.96 standard deviations of the seasonally adjusted series, centred around zero. If a data point is outside of these limits, it is a statistically significant difference.

The VAT turnover diffusion index shows that the proportion of firms reporting an increase in turnover was 3 percentage points higher than the proportion reporting a decrease, in September 2026. This net difference is 6 percentage points higher than in August 2026, and on the upper limit of normal month-on-month variation. 

All four main industrial sectors recorded more firms reporting increases in turnover than decreases, in September 2026. The proportion of firms reporting increased turnover was 4% higher in "Services", 2% higher in "Production" and 1% higher in both "Construction" and "Agriculture," than those reporting a decrease in turnover. The proportion of firms in the services sector reporting increased turnover was just outside the upper limit of normal month-on-month variation. 

The net difference between firms reporting increases and decreases in turnover increased across all four sectors compared with August 2026. Net differences increased by 6 percentage points in both "Agriculture" and "Services", by 4 percentage points in "Production", and by 3 percentage points in "Construction". This suggests a broad-based increase in reported turnover growth across the main industrial sectors for September 2026. 

Industry-to-industry interbank payment flows 

Monthly industry-to-industry payment flows are anonymised, aggregated Bacs Payment System (Bacs) Direct Debit, Bacs Direct Credit, and Faster Payment System (FPS) payments. 

Further information on this indicator can be found in our Industry-to-industry payment flows, UK: 2019 to 2025 article and its accompanying quality and methodology information. 

This month we have examined payments from organisations in the "Crop and animal production" industry (Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) Division 01) to fuel suppliers, including "Wholesale of petroleum and petroleum products" (SIC 46711) and "Wholesale of other fuels and related products" (SIC 46719).

Payments follow their usual seasonal pattern, peaking in spring and rising again during the harvest period in late summer and early autumn. Since April 2026, payments from farms to fuel suppliers have been between 20% and 37% higher than the corresponding month in 2025. The number of payments is broadly unchanged, suggesting the increase in value is larger payments per transaction, likely from increases in fuel prices.  

New online job adverts 

The total number of new online job adverts increased by 13% in September 2026, compared with August 2026, and increased by 9% when compared with September 2025. 

The number of new online job adverts increased in 19 of the 26 occupational groups in September 2026 when compared with September 2025. The largest increases were in "Elementary trades and related occupations" (up by 33%) and "Science, research, engineering and technology professionals" (up by 26%). Volumes decreased in six occupational groups, with the largest decline in "Teaching and other educational professionals" (down by 17%). Volumes for "Leisure, travel and related personal service occupations" remained broadly unchanged.

The number of new online job adverts increased in 10 of the 12 UK regions (including the UK countries and English regions) in September 2026, compared with September 2025, with the largest increases in the South East (up by 25%) and the East Midlands (up by 16%). Volumes decreased in two regions, Scotland and London (both down by 1%). 

Details on the methods used to compile these estimates are available in our Measuring labour demand volumes across the UK using Textkernel data user guide.  

Our accompanying Textkernel new online job adverts dataset is available. Further tables using similar methodology and sources by local authority and 4-digit SOC are available in our Labour demand volumes by Standard Occupational Classification datasets that will be updated on 23 October 2026.

Advanced notification of potential redundancies 

The number of potential redundancies increased by 39%, and the number of employers proposing redundancies increased by 32% in September 2026, compared with August 2026. Both increased by 1% when compared with September 2025. 

"Banking and finance" and "Manufacturing" accounted for the largest shares of potential redundancies in September 2026, representing 33% and 29% of the total, respectively. "Manufacturing" potential redundancies were 71% higher in September 2026 than in August 2026 and 114% higher than in September 2025.

For more information, our accompanying Advanced notification of potential redundancies weekly dataset is available. Industry and regional breakdowns by month are available in our monthly potential redundancies dataset.

Wholesale energy prices showed a mixed picture in September 2026, following rises in August. Wholesale gas prices increased over the month, while electricity prices fell slightly.

Ongoing concerns about potential disruption to global energy supplies and shipping routes continued to put upward pressure on prices, with both gas and electricity prices increasing on the week and the year in our early October indicators.

System Average Price of gas and System Price of electricity

The System Average Price (SAP) of gas increased by 25% in September 2026, compared with August 2026, to 6.433 pence per kilowatt hour (p/kWh). This was 137% higher than September 2025, which had a monthly average price of 2.716 p/kWh.  

More recent data indicate that upward pressure on gas prices has continued through early October. In the week ending 18 October 2026, the SAP of gas increased by 12%, compared with the previous week, from 6.413 p/kWh to 7.189 p/kWh.

The System Price of electricity decreased by 1% in September 2026, compared with August 2026, to 12.950 p/kWh. This was 100% higher than September 2025, which had a monthly average price of 6.463 p/kWh.

More recent data indicate an increase of 23% in the seven days leading up to 18 October 2026, compared with the previous seven days, from 13.111 p/kWh to 16.090 p/kWh. 

Changes in the SAP of gas and the System Price of electricity are considered by the Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem) when setting the energy price caps for the next three months. Large changes in these prices can indicate that the future price cap set by Ofgem will change. 

Our accompanying System Average Price of gas dataset and  System Price of electricity dataset are available.

Housing market: rentals 

The seasonally adjusted number of new rental listings increased by 1% in September 2026, compared with August 2026, and increased by 2% when compared with September 2025. 

The number of new rental listings increased in 9 out of 11 regions (includes Scotland, Wales and English regions) compared with the previous month. The largest increases were in Yorkshire and The Humber, and Wales, both at 7%. Only Scotland and the South West decreased, by 4% and 2%, respectively. 

When compared with September 2025, the largest increase in new rental listings was in Wales, up by 24%. The largest decrease was in the South West of England, where the number of new rental listings fell by 8%.

Housing market: sales 

The seasonally adjusted number of new property sales listings increased by 1% in September 2026 compared with August 2026, but decreased by 1% when compared with September 2025. 

The number of new sales listings increased in 8 of the 11 regions compared with the previous month. The largest increase was in London (up by 7%). For the remaining three regions, the North East was broadly unchanged and the South West, and Yorkshire and The Humber, both decreased by 1%.  

When compared with August 2025, new sales listings decreased in 8 of the 11 regions. Only the North West had an increase in new listings of 2%. The South East and West Midlands remained broadly unchanged, while the East of England, the South West and Wales all had the largest decreases at 3%.

The seasonally adjusted average time on market for property sales was 69.3 days in September 2026, an increase of 1% from August 2026 and 3% higher than September 2025. 

London continued to have the longest average time on market (80.1 days) and Scotland had the shortest (38.0 days) in September 2026. Compared with August 2026, the largest increase was in the South East at 3%. When compared with September 2025, London had the largest increase (up by 10%), while Wales recorded the only decrease (down by 4%). 

Our accompanying housing market insights dataset is available. 

Energy Performance Building Certificates 

The seasonally adjusted number of Energy Performance Building Certificates (EPCs) lodged in England and Wales for new dwellings decreased by 4% in September 2026, compared with August 2026, and by 16% when compared with September 2025. 

The seasonally adjusted number of EPCs lodged in England and Wales for existing dwellings remained broadly the same in September 2026, compared with August 2026, but increased by 9% when compared with September 2025. 

Our accompanying Energy Performance Building Certificates (EPC) dataset and the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government's Weekly EPCs for domestic properties dataset are available. 

New vehicle registrations 

The seasonally adjusted number of new vehicle registrations (cars and light commercial vehicles) increased by 4% in September 2026 compared with August 2026, and was 10% higher than in September 2025. 

New registrations of Fleet car registrations, which account for just over half of all registrations, increased by 5% in September 2026, compared with the previous month, and increased by 9% when compared with September 2025. 

Private car registrations, which account for around one-third of registrations, remained broadly unchanged on the month, but increased by 12% on the year. In contrast, Business car and Light commercial vehicle registrations increased by 10% and 7%, respectively, compared with August 2026, and both remained above their September 2025 levels.  

The proportion of new car registrations that were electric vehicles increased by 3 percentage points to 60% in September 2026, compared with August 2026, and was 8 percentage points higher than a year earlier. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) accounted for 27%, 20%, and 12% of new car registrations, respectively, in September 2026. Petrol and diesel vehicles accounted for 36% and 4% of car registrations, respectively. 

Our accompanying UK new vehicle registrations and production dataset is available. 

UK flights  

The seasonally adjusted number of UK flights remained broadly unchanged in September 2026, compared with the previous month, and increased by 2% when compared with September 2025. 

Our accompanying Daily UK flights dataset is available. 

Shipping 

The seasonally adjusted total number of ship visits to selected UK ports increased by 3% in September 2026, compared with August 2026. Cargo and tanker visits increased by 1%, while other ship visits increased by 7%, over the same period. 

The seasonally adjusted total number of ship visits increased by 1%, compared with August 2025. Other ship visits increased by 3% over the same period, while cargo and tanker ships remained broadly unchanged. 

Our accompanying Weekly shipping indicators dataset is available.

This section lists a selection of data available in this publication. For the full list of available datasets, please see our accompanying dataset page.

Real-time indicator 

A real-time indicator provides insights into economic activity using close-to-real-time big data, administrative data sources, rapid response surveys or experimental estimates, which represent useful economic and social concepts.  

Seasonal adjustment  

Seasonal adjustment is the identification and removal of consistent and systematic variation in time series associated with the time of year. For more information on seasonal variation, and how we implement seasonal adjustment, see Section 2 of our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology.  

About the statistics

Strengths and limitations 

These statistics have been produced to provide timely indicators of the effect of developing world events on the UK economy and society. We use close-to-real-time big data, administrative data sources, rapid response surveys, or official statistics in development. 

The data presented in this bulletin are reviewed and refreshed on a regular basis. Indicators are swapped in and out of the publication based on their suitability and availability. 

Seasonality 

Seasonal fluctuations are likely to be present in many of these indicators, so caution must be applied when interpreting changes in series that are not seasonally adjusted.

About the data sources 

Dataset release dates and intended release frequency 

Latest release dates and intended release frequency of our associated datasets are available in this section. Please note that there may be some change to the intended release frequency for a variety of reasons, such as data availability. If you would like further information about any of these datasets, or previous release dates, please email realtime.indicators@ons.gov.uk. 

Weekly data release 

• Revolut spending on debit cards dataset; updated 15 October 2026.  

• Automotive fuel spending dataset; updated 22 October 2026. 

• UK retail footfall dataset; updated 22 October 2026. 

• Advanced notification of potential redundancies dataset; updated 22 October 2026. 

• System Average Price of gas dataset; updated 22 October 2026. 

• System Price of electricity dataset; updated 22 October 2026. 

• Energy Performance Building Certificates (EPC) dataset; updated 15 October 2026. 

• Weekly shipping indicators dataset; updated 22 October 2026.  

• Daily UK flights dataset; updated 22 October 2026.  

Monthly data release 

• Monthly Direct Debit failure rate and average transaction amount dataset; updated 22 October 2026. 

• Textkernel new online job adverts dataset; updated 22 October 2026. 

• Value Added Tax (VAT) flash estimates dataset; updated 22 October 2026. 

• Renter affordability for new tenancies dataset; updated 15 October 2026.  

• Rightmove Housing Market Insights; updated 22 October 2026. 

• UK new vehicle registration and production dataset; updated 8 October 2026. 

• Industry-to-industry payment flows, Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) 2, dataset; updated 22 October 2026. 

• Industry-to-industry payment flows, SIC5, dataset; updated 22 October 2026. 

• Region-to-region organisation payment flows dataset, updated 22 October 2026. 

• Industry-to-industry payment flows by region dataset; updated 22 October 2026.

Statistical designation

These statistics are labelled as official statistics in development. Until September 2023, these were called "experimental statistics". Read more about the change in our Guide to official statistics in development.  

We are developing how we collect and produce the data to improve the quality of these statistics. Find out more in our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology. 

Once the developments are complete, we will review the statistics with the Statistics Head of Profession. We will decide if the statistics are of sufficient quality and value to be published as official statistics, or if further development is needed. Production may be stopped if they are not of sufficient quality or value. Users will be informed of the outcome and any changes. 

We value your feedback on these statistics. If you would like to get in touch, please email realtime.indicators@ons.gov.uk.