Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators: 17 July 2025

In the UK in June 2025:

• Consumer spending slowed compared with May 2025 but was still higher than the previous year; this is also reflected in Direct Debit average transaction amounts and respective failure rates (Revolut, Vocalink and Pay.UK). Section 3: Consumer behaviour.
• Business turnover indicators remained stable; the number of firms reporting an increase in turnover compared with May 2025 was broadly equal to the number of firms reporting a decrease, while the Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) standardised turnover balance rose by 0.1 percentage points (HM Revenue and Customs Value Added Tax returns, initial results from Wave 136 of BICS). Section 4: Business and workforce.
• The number of potential redundancies increased by 17% compared with the previous month while the number of employers proposing redundancies increased by 2% (Insolvency Service - HR1 forms). Section 4: Business and workforce.
• The System Average Price (SAP) of gas increased by 5% to 2.972 pence per kilowatt hour (p/kWh) compared with the previous month, while the System price of electricity remained broadly unchanged at 6.958p/kWh (Elexon, National Gas Transmission). Section 5: Energy.
• Transport indicators showed reduced activity with both the number of UK flights and the number of ship visits to major UK ports falling by 1% compared with the previous month (EUROCONTROL, exactEarth). Section 6: Transport.
• The seasonally adjusted number of Energy Performance Building Certificates (EPCs) for new dwellings decreased by 5% compared with May 2025 and decreased by 3% when compared with June 2024 (Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government). Section 7: Housing.

Overall retail footfall for the week to 13 July 2025 remained broadly unchanged compared with the previous week. When compared with the equivalent week of 2024, it increased by 2% (MRI OnLocation). Read more in Section 3: Consumer behaviour.

Notes:

1. Card spending over time is increased by the impacts of both inflation on value of transactions and cash-to-card conversion.
2. Revolut adjustments to user count are at an aggregate level and as such age bands may not adjust evenly.
3. Indicators with SA in the title have been seasonally adjusted.
4. Existing weekly EPC data can show sudden spikes when housing associations lodge multiple expired EPCs at once.

Monthly Direct Debit average transaction amount and failure rate

The monthly Direct Debit failure rate and average transaction amount are anonymised and aggregated datasets made available to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) by Pay.UK and Vocalink. The data are unadjusted for inflation and reflect economic activity in nominal terms.

For further details on what is covered within this indicator, see our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology.

In June 2025, the seasonally adjusted “Total” Direct Debit failure rate decreased by 1% compared with the previous month. Failure rates for “Fitness Facilities” increased by 6%, while failure rates for all other categories decreased. The largest failure rate decreases were in “Water”, “Electricity and Gas”, and “Loans”, which fell by 4%, 3%, and 3%, respectively.

When compared with June 2024, the seasonally adjusted “Total” Direct Debit failure rate increased by 5%. Over this period, the failure rate for “Mortgages” decreased by 4% while all other categories saw increases. The largest failure rate increases were in “Electricity and Gas” and “Fitness Facilities”, which rose by 17% and 11%, respectively.

The seasonally adjusted “Total” Direct Debit average transaction amount remained broadly unchanged in June 2025 compared with the previous month. “Water” saw the largest increase against the previous month of 3%, while the remaining named categories saw either very weak growth or remained broadly unchanged.

When compared with June 2024, the seasonally adjusted “Total” Direct Debit average transaction amount increased by 2%. Over this period, the largest increases were in “Water” and “Mortgages”, which rose by 22% and 6%, respectively. “Electricity and Gas” was the only named category to see a decrease and fell by 4%.

Revolut spending on debit cards

Seasonally adjusted total Revolut debit card spending remained broadly unchanged in June 2025 when compared with the previous month. The largest increase by sector was seen in “Utilities” which grew by 2%, while five other sectors grew by 1%. This was offset by decreases in the “Entertainment” and “Restaurant” sectors of 3% and 1%, respectively.

When compared with June 2024, seasonally adjusted total Revolut debit card spending increased by 10%, with increases seen across all sectors. The largest percentage increases were in “Entertainment”, “Utilities”, and “Health”, which grew by 20%, 19% and 18%, respectively.

Figure 3: Revolut debit card spending remained broadly unchanged in June 2025 when compared with May 2025

Revolut debit card spending, UK, January 2023 to June 2025, seasonally adjusted

Notes:

1. Card spending over time is increased by the impacts of both inflation on value of transactions and cash-to-card conversion.
2. 'Betting' expenditure can be erratic and is omitted from the data as its inclusion would lead to volatility in the spending category 'entertainment' that affects user interpretation.

Our accompanying Revolut spending on debit cards dataset is available.

National retail footfall

In the week to 13 July 2025, both retail park and shopping centre footfall decreased by 1% compared with the previous week, while high street footfall saw an increase of 1%. When compared with the equivalent week of 2024, retail park and high street footfall both increased by 3%, while shopping centre footfall increased by 1%.

Overall retail footfall decreased in 8 of the 12 regions (includes UK countries and English regions) compared with the previous week. The largest decreases were seen in Northern Ireland, at 4%, as well as the East Midlands, South East and South West of England, which all fell by 2%. The East, North East of England, Scotland and North West of England all saw increases in the week to 13 July 2025, with the largest increases seen in the East and North East of England, both at 4%.

Automotive fuel spending

In the month of June 2025, the annual growth rate for the average price of automotive fuel increased by 1 percentage point compared with the previous month and decreased by 12 percentage points when compared with June 2024.

The annual growth rate for average automotive fuel demand per transaction in June 2025 remained broadly unchanged when compared with the previous month but increased by 7 percentage points when compared with June 2024.

Our accompanying Automotive fuel spending dataset is available.

Value Added Tax flash estimates

Turnover diffusion indices are an aggregate measure used to track whether most firms are reporting an increase or decrease in turnover in their Value Added Tax (VAT) returns. They are calculated as the percentage of firms with increasing turnover, minus the percentage of firms with decreasing turnover.

These estimates have been weighted according to each industry's contribution to the economy. As services have the greatest contribution, they have a greater contribution to the total index.

The indices are constructed to lie between 1 and negative 1. An index of 0.05 means that 5% more firms reported an increase in turnover compared with the previous month than those reporting a decrease in turnover. Conversely, an index of negative 0.05 means that 5% more firms reported a decrease in turnover compared with the previous month.

Figure 6: The number of firms reporting an increase in turnover in June 2025, when compared with the previous month, was broadly equal to the number of firms reporting a decrease

Weighted Value Added Tax (VAT) turnover diffusion indices, seasonally adjusted, UK, January 2020 to June 2025

Notes:

1. These data are current price so may reflect elements of inflation.
2. The shaded areas represent the 95% confidence limits.
3. The confidence limits are 1.96 standard deviations of the seasonally adjusted series, centred around zero. If a data point is outside of these limits, it is a statistically significant difference.

The number of firms reporting an increase in turnover in June 2025, when compared with the previous month, was broadly equal to the number of firms reporting a decrease.

The services sector, the largest contributing sector to gross domestic product (GDP), saw a net 1% of firms reporting a decrease in turnover in June 2025 compared with the previous month. This has decreased by 2 percentage points from May 2025 and is within normal month-on-month variation.

A net 1% of firms within the construction sector reported increased turnover on the previous month, which is 1 percentage point lower than May 2025 and is within normal month-on-month variation.

The production sector saw a net 4% of firms reporting an increase in turnover in June 2025 compared with the previous month; this has increased by 6 percentage points from May 2025 and is on the upper limit of normal month-on-month variation.

A net 1% of firms in the agriculture sector reported a decreased turnover on the previous month, decreasing by 3 percentage points from May 2025 and within normal month-on-month variation.

The data are seasonally adjusted. More information on the compilation and methodology of these estimates can be found in our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology.

Business impact and insights

The Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) collects data from selected industries and does not have full coverage of the UK economy. For more information on the industries covered in the BICS sample, see our Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) QMI.

We have created a reweighted gross domestic product (GDP) estimate, termed as GDP*, to enable comparisons, which only includes the same industries as those covered within the BICS.

Advanced notification of potential redundancies

The number of potential redundancies increased by 17% in June 2025 compared with the previous month while the number of employers proposing redundancies increased by 2%.

When compared with the equivalent month of 2024 the number of potential redundancies increased by 68% and the number of employers proposing redundancies increased by 42%.

For more information, our accompanying Advanced notification of potential redundancies dataset is available.

System Average Price of gas and System Price of electricity

The System Average Price of gas increased by 5% in June 2025 compared with May 2025, to a monthly average price of 2.972 pence per kilowatt hour (p/kWh). This was also 5% higher than June 2024, which had a monthly average price of 2.818p/kWh.

The System Price of electricity was broadly unchanged at 6.958p/kWh in June 2025, compared with the previous month and was 1% lower than June 2024, which had a monthly average price of 6.913p/kWh.

These price increases are considered by the Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem) when setting the energy price caps for the next three months. Large changes in these prices can indicate that the future price cap set by Ofgem will change.

Our accompanying System Average Price of gas dataset and System Price of electricity dataset are available.

Daily UK flights

The seasonally adjusted total number of flights decreased by 1% in June 2025 compared with the previous month and increased by 1% when compared with June 2024.

Our accompanying Daily UK flights dataset is available.

Shipping

The seasonally adjusted total number of ship visits to selected UK ports decreased by 1% in June 2025 compared with the previous month. Over the same period, the count of cargo ship and tanker visits increased by 2%.

When compared with the equivalent month of 2024, the seasonally adjusted total number of ship visits decreased by 7%, and cargo ship and tanker visits decreased by 3%.

Our accompanying Weekly shipping indicators dataset is available.

Energy Performance Building Certificates

The seasonally adjusted total number of Energy Performance Building Certificates (EPCs) for new dwellings across England and Wales decreased by 5% in the month of June 2025 when compared with the previous month, but increased by 35% for existing dwellings, over the same period.

When compared with June 2024, the seasonally adjusted total number of EPCs for new dwellings decreased by 3% in June 2025, but the number of EPCs for existing dwellings increased by 62% over the same period.

The large increase in the number of EPCs for existing dwellings in June 2025 is because of multiple housing associations lodging multiple expired EPCs at the same time.

Our accompanying Energy Performance Building Certificates (EPC) dataset and the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government's weekly EPCs for domestic properties dataset are available.

Real-time indicator

A real-time indicator provides insights into economic activity using close-to-real-time big data, administrative data sources, rapid response surveys or experimental estimates, which represent useful economic and social concepts.

Seasonal adjustment

Seasonal adjustment is the identification and removal of consistent and systematic variation in time series associated with the time of year. For more information on seasonal variation, and how we implement seasonal adjustment, see Section 2 of our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology article.

Official statistics in development

These statistics are labelled as official statistics in development. Until September 2023, these were called “experimental statistics”. Read more about the change in our Guide to official statistics in development.

We are developing how we collect and produce the data to improve the quality of these statistics. Find out more in our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology article.

Once the developments are complete, we will review the statistics with the Statistics Head of Profession. We will decide if the statistics are of sufficient quality and value to be published as official statistics, or if further development is needed. Production may be stopped if they are not of sufficient quality or value. Users will be informed of the outcome and any changes.

We value your feedback on these statistics. If you would like to get in touch, please email realtime.indicators@ons.gov.uk.

Dataset release dates and intended release frequency

Latest release dates and intended release frequency of our associated datasets are available in this section. Please note that there may be some change to the intended release frequency for a variety of reasons, such as data availability. If you would like further information about any of these datasets, or previous release dates, please email realtime.indicators@ons.gov.uk.

Weekly data release

• Revolut spending on debit cards dataset; updated 17 July 2025.
• Automotive fuel spending dataset; updated 17 July 2025.
• Company incorporations, voluntary dissolutions and compulsory dissolutions dataset; updated 30 January 2025.
• Advanced notification of potential redundancies dataset; updated 17 July 2025.
• System Average Price of gas dataset; updated 17 July 2025.
• System Price of electricity dataset; updated 17 July 2025.
• Energy Performance Building Certificates (EPC) dataset; updated 17 July 2025.
• Weekly shipping indicators dataset; updated 17 July 2025.
• Daily UK flights dataset; updated 17 July 2025.

Monthly data release

• Monthly Direct Debit failure rate and average transaction amount dataset; updated 17 July 2025.
• Textkernel new online job adverts dataset; updated 19 June 2025.
• Value Added Tax (VAT) flash estimates dataset; updated 17 July 2025.
• Renter affordability for new tenancies dataset; updated 17 July 2025.

Quarterly data release

• Sales and jobs in small businesses dataset; updated 7 November 2024.

Strengths and limitations

These statistics have been produced to provide timely indicators of the effect of developing world events on the UK economy and society. We use close-to-real-time big data, administrative data sources, rapid response surveys, or official statistics in development.

The data presented in this bulletin are reviewed and refreshed on a regular basis. Indicators are swapped in and out of the publication based on their suitability and availability.

Seasonality

Seasonal fluctuations are likely to be present in many of these indicators, so caution must be applied when interpreting changes in series that are not seasonally adjusted.