Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators: 23 October 2025

In the UK in September 2025:

• Consumer spending increased slightly with seasonally adjusted Revolut debit card spending and average Direct Debit transaction amounts both increasing by 1% compared with the previous month, whilst the total Direct Debit failure rate fell by 1% (Revolut, Vocalink, and Pay.UK). Section 3: Consumer behaviour.

• The number of firms reporting increased turnover was 3% higher than those reporting decreased turnover; the services sector had a net 4% of firms reporting an increase in turnover compared with August 2025 (HM Revenue and Customs Value Added Tax returns). Section 4: Business and workforce.

• Labour market indicators show a mixed picture with increases in both the number of new online job adverts and the number of potential redundancies compared with August 2025; both also increased when compared with September 2024 (Textkernel, Insolvency Service HR1 forms). Section 4: Business and workforce.

• The System Average Price (SAP) of gas remained broadly unchanged, compared with August 2025, at 2.716 pence per kilowatt hour (p/kWh), while the System Price of electricity decreased by 9% to 6.484p/kWh (National Gas Transmission, Elexon). Section 5: Energy.

• Seasonally adjusted transport indicators were stable compared with August 2025; the number of UK flights remained broadly unchanged while the number of ship visits to major UK ports increased by 1% (EUROCONTROL, exactEarth). Section 6: Transport.

• The seasonally adjusted number of Energy Performance Building Certificates (EPCs) lodged for new dwellings across England and Wales increased by 6% compared with August 2025 and increased by 5% when compared with September 2024 (Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government). Section 7: Housing.

Notes:

1. Card spending over time is pushed upwards by the impacts of both inflation on value of transactions and cash-to-card conversion.

2. Indicators with "SA" in the title have been seasonally adjusted. Indicators with "NSA" in the title have not been seasonally adjusted but do present seasonality. All other indicators do not present seasonality.

3. Existing Energy Performance Building Certificate EPC data can show sudden spikes when housing associations lodge multiple expired EPCs at once.

Overall consumer spending increased slightly in September 2025, prompted by higher spending on services and entertainment.

Monthly Direct Debit average transaction amount and failure rate

The non-seasonally adjusted Direct Debit average transaction amount increased by 2% in September 2025, compared with August 2025. The largest percentage increase over this period was for the "Loans" category (25%). The "Water" and "Fitness Facilities" categories increased by 6% and 2%, respectively, while the remaining categories had very small changes or were broadly unchanged.

The non-seasonally adjusted Direct Debit average transaction amount increased by 3% compared with September 2024. The largest percentage increase over this period was for "Water", which rose by 26%.

The seasonally adjusted Direct Debit failure rate decreased by 1% in September 2025, compared with August 2025. "Mortgages" saw the largest decrease (5%), closely followed by "Water" (4%). "Fitness Facilities" saw the largest increase (8%), followed by "Loans" (3%). Failure rates for "Electricity and gas" remained broadly unchanged.

The seasonally adjusted Direct Debit failure rate increased by 7% when compared with September 2024. The largest increases over this period were 26% for "Electricity and Gas", 16% for "Fitness Facilities", and 15% for "Loans".

The monthly Direct Debit failure rate and average transaction amount are anonymised and aggregated datasets made available to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) by Pay.UK and Vocalink. The data are unadjusted for inflation and reflect economic activity in nominal terms.

For further details on what is covered within this indicator, see our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology.

Our accompanying Monthly Direct Debit failure rate and average transaction amount dataset is available.

Revolut spending on debit cards

Seasonally adjusted total Revolut debit card spending increased by 1% in September 2025 compared with August 2025. The largest increases in spending were seen in "Services", "Entertainment", and "Utilities", rising by 4%, 3%, and 2%, respectively. The only spending category to decrease was "Restaurants" which fell by 1%.

When compared with September 2024, seasonally adjusted total Revolut debit card spending increased by 13%, with increased spending seen across all sectors. The largest percentage increases were seen in "Entertainment", "Utilities", and "Health" which increased by 23%, 21%, and 20%, respectively.

Our accompanying Revolut spending on debit cards dataset is available.

September 2025 saw growth in the number of new online job adverts but also in the number of potential redundancies compared with the previous month and year. There was also growth in the proportion of firms reporting increased turnover in their VAT returns.

New online job adverts

The total number of new online job adverts increased by 7% in September 2025 compared with August 2025, and increased by 5% when compared with September 2024.

The number of new online job adverts increased in 21 of the 26 occupation groups in September 2025 compared with August 2025. Of the remaining five groups, four decreased and one remained broadly unchanged.

In line with the start of the academic year, the largest percentage increase in September 2025 was seen in "Teaching and other educational professionals", which increased by 52% from August 2025, and was also 4% higher than September 2024.

"Health and social care associate professionals" and "Caring personal service occupations" also saw significant percentage increases of 22% and 18%, respectively, compared with August 2025. The largest percentage decreases over the same period were in "Skilled agricultural and related trades", "Skilled construction and building trades", and "Community and civil enforcement occupations", which fell by 10%, 8%, and 5%, respectively.

Figure 4: The number of new online job adverts increased in 11 of the 12 regions (includes UK countries and English regions) in September 2025 compared with September 2024

Volume of new online job adverts, UK countries and English regions, January 2020 to September 2025, non-seasonally adjusted

Notes:

1. New adverts represent the total number of job adverts that have gone online per month, calculated by counting the number of adverts that appear for the first time across the calendar month.
2. Please note that the sum of English regions and UK countries in this chart does not sum to the overall total of online job adverts. This is because of the omission of unknown locations from this chart.
3. For information on how adverts were assigned to geographical locations, see measuring labour demand volumes across the UK using Textkernel data user guide. .

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When compared with September 2024, the number of new online job adverts increased in 11 of the 12 regions, with only Yorkshire and The Humber remaining broadly unchanged. The number of new online job adverts increased by 11% in London and by 9% in the SouthWest, Northern Ireland, and Scotland, over the same period.

The number of new online job adverts increased in all 12 regions (includes UK countries and English regions) in September 2025 compared with August 2025. The three largest increases were seen in the West Midlands, Northern Ireland, and London, rising by 11%, 9%, and 8%, respectively.

Details on the methods used to compile these estimates are available in our Measuring labour demand volumes across the UK using Textkernel data user guide.

Our accompanying Textkernel new online job adverts dataset is available, or for further tables using similar methodology and sources by local authority and four-digit SOC, see the Labour demand volumes by Standard Occupation Classification datasets.

Value Added Tax flash estimates 

Turnover diffusion indices are an aggregate measure used to track whether most firms are reporting an increase or decrease in turnover in their Value Added Tax (VAT) returns. They are calculated as the percentage of firms with increasing turnover, minus the percentage of firms with decreasing turnover.

Figure 5: The number of firms reporting increased turnover was 3% higher than those reporting decreased turnover in September 2025, which is on the upper limit of normal month-on-month variation

Weighted Value Added Tax (VAT) month-on-month turnover diffusion indices, UK, January 2020 to September 2025, seasonally adjusted

Notes:

1. These data are current price so may reflect elements of inflation.
2. The shaded areas represent the 95% confidence limits.
3. The confidence limits are 1.96 standard deviations of the seasonally adjusted series, centred around zero. If a data point is outside of these limits, it is a statistically significant difference.

A net 3% of firms reported an increase in turnover in September 2025. This was 1 percentage point higher than the index for August 2025.

The services sector, which is the largest contributing sector to gross domestic product (GDP), saw a net 4% of firms reporting an increase in turnover in September 2025, compared with the previous month. This is an increase of 1 percentage point, compared with August 2025, and on the upper limit of normal month-on-month variation.

A net 1% of firms within the production sector reported decreased turnover in September 2025, compared with the previous month. This is an increase of 1 percentage point, compared with August 2025, and is within normal month-on-month variation.

The number of firms in the construction sector reporting an increase in turnover compared with the previous month was broadly equal to the number of firms reporting a decrease. This is a decrease of 1 percentage point, compared with August 2025, and is within normal month-on-month variation.

A net 3% of firms in the agriculture sector reported decreased turnover on the previous month. This is a decrease of 1 percentage point, compared with August 2025, and is within normal month-on-month variation.

These estimates have been weighted according to each industry's contribution to the economy. As services have the greatest contribution, they have a greater contribution to the total index. The data are seasonally adjusted. More information on the compilation and methodology of these estimates can be found in our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology.

Our accompanying Value Added Tax (VAT) flash estimates dataset is available.

Advanced notification of potential redundancies

The number of potential redundancies increased by 23% in September 2025, compared with August 2025. The number of employers proposing redundancies increased by 29% in the same period.

The number of potential redundancies increased by 18%, and the number of employers proposing redundancies increased by 14%, when compared with the equivalent month of 2024.

For more information, our accompanying Advanced notification of potential redundancies weekly dataset is available. Industry and regional breakdowns by month are available in our monthly potential redundancies dataset.

System Average Price of gas and System Price of electricity

The System Price of electricity decreased by 9% to an average price of 6.484p/kWh in September 2025, when compared with August 2025, and decreased by 16% when compared with September 2024, which had a monthly average price of 7.760p/kWh.

The System Average Price of gas remained broadly unchanged in September 2025, compared with August 2025 but decreased by 9% when compared with September 2024, which had a monthly average price of 2.984p/kWh.

Changes in the System Average Price (SAP) of gas and the System Price of electricity are considered by the Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem) when setting the energy price caps for the next three months. Large changes in these prices can indicate that the future price cap set by Ofgem will change.

Our accompanying System Average Price of gas dataset and System Price of electricity dataset are available.

UK flights

The seasonally adjusted number of UK Flights remained broadly unchanged in the month of September 2025 compared with the previous month but was 1% higher than September 2024.

Our accompanying Daily UK flights dataset is available.

Shipping

The seasonally adjusted total number of ship visits to selected UK ports increased by 1% in September 2025 compared with the previous month. Over the same period, the number of cargo ship and tanker visits remained broadly unchanged and other ship visits increased by 3%.

When compared with September 2024, the seasonally adjusted total number of ship visits decreased by 8%, with cargo ship and tanker visits decreasing by 10%, and other ship visits by 5%.

Our accompanying Weekly shipping indicators dataset is available.

The seasonally adjusted number of Energy Performance Building Certificates (EPCs) lodged in England and Wales for new and existing dwellings increased by 6% and 2%, respectively, in September 2025, compared with the previous month.

When compared with September 2024, the number of EPCs lodged for new dwellings increased by 5%, while lodgements for existing dwellings decreased by 3% over the same period.

Our accompanying Energy Performance Building Certificates (EPC) dataset and the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government's Weekly EPCs for domestic properties dataset are available.

This section lists a selection of data available in this publication. For the full list of available datasets, please see our accompanying dataset page.

Real-time indicator

A real-time indicator provides insights into economic activity using close-to-real-time big data, administrative data sources, rapid response surveys, or experimental estimates, which represent useful economic and social concepts.

Seasonal adjustment

Seasonal adjustment is the identification and removal of consistent and systematic variation in time series associated with the time of year. For more information on seasonal variation, and how we implement seasonal adjustment, see Section 2 of our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology article.

Official statistics in development

These statistics are labelled as official statistics in development. Until September 2023, these were called "experimental statistics". Read more about the change in our Guide to official statistics in development.

We are developing how we collect and produce the data to improve the quality of these statistics. Find out more in our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology article.

Once the developments are complete, we will review the statistics with the Statistics Head of Profession. We will decide if the statistics are of sufficient quality and value to be published as official statistics, or if further development is needed. Production may be stopped if they are not of sufficient quality or value. Users will be informed of the outcome and any changes.

We value your feedback on these statistics. If you would like to get in touch, please email realtime.indicators@ons.gov.uk.

Dataset release dates and intended release frequency

Latest release dates and intended release frequency of our associated datasets are available in this section. Please note that there may be some change to the intended release frequency for a variety of reasons, such as data availability. If you would like further information about any of these datasets, or previous release dates, please email realtime.indicators@ons.gov.uk.

Weekly data release

• Revolut spending on debit cards dataset; updated 23 October 2025.

• Automotive fuel spending dataset; updated 16 October 2025.

• Advanced notification of potential redundancies dataset; updated 23 October 2025.

• System Average Price of gas dataset; updated 23 October 2025.

• System Price of electricity dataset; updated 23 October 2025.

• Energy Performance Building Certificates (EPC) dataset; updated 23 October 2025.

• Weekly shipping indicators dataset; updated 23 October 2025.

• Daily UK flights dataset; updated 23 October 2025.

• Company incorporations, voluntary dissolutions, and compulsory dissolutions dataset; updated 30 January 2025.

Monthly data release

• Monthly Direct Debit failure rate and average transaction amount dataset; updated 9 October 2025.

• Textkernel new online job adverts dataset; updated 23 October 2025.

• Value Added Tax (VAT) flash estimates dataset; updated 23 October 2025.

• Renter affordability for new tenancies dataset; updated 9 October 2025.

Quarterly data release

• Sales and jobs in small businesses dataset; updated 7 November 2024.

Strengths and limitations

These statistics have been produced to provide timely indicators of the effect of developing world events on the UK economy and society. We use close-to-real-time big data, administrative data sources, rapid response surveys, or official statistics in development.

The data presented in this bulletin are reviewed and refreshed on a regular basis. Indicators are swapped in and out of the publication based on their suitability and availability.

Seasonality

Seasonal fluctuations are likely to be present in many of these indicators, so caution must be applied when interpreting changes in series that are not seasonally adjusted.