Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators: 15 February 2024

• In January 2024, the total Direct Debit failure rate rose to 1.07%, the highest level seen since the data series started in January 2019; this is a 14% increase from January 2023 (Vocalink). Section 3: Consumer behaviour.

• In the latest week, UK spending on debit and credit cards increased by 1%, while high street footfall fell to 98% of the previous week (Bank of England CHAPS, Springboard). Section 3: Consumer behaviour.

• The total number of online job adverts increased by 1% when compared with the previous week, but was 15% below the level seen in the equivalent period of 2023 (Adzuna). Section 4: Business and workforce.

• When looking ahead to March 2024, 22% of businesses expect their turnover to increase, up 4 percentage points from expectations for February 2024; this is the largest percentage of businesses expecting turnover to increase since this question was introduced in March 2022 (Initial results from Wave 102 of the Business Insights and Conditions Survey). Section 4: Business and workforce.

• In the week to 11 February 2024, the System Average Price (SAP) of gas decreased by 2% and is 52% lower than the equivalent week of 2023 (National Gas Transmission). Section 5: Energy.

• Transport indicators have shown mixed activity in the latest week, with the average number of daily ship visits increasing by 1% and the daily average number of UK flights increasing by 8%, while the average traffic camera activity for cars in London decreased by 3% when compared with the previous week (exactEarth, EUROCONTROL, Transport for London). Section 6: Transport.

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Notes:

1. Card spending over time is pushed upwards by the impacts of both inflation on value of transactions and cash-to-card conversion.

2. Revolut adjustments to user count are at an aggregate level and as such age bands may not adjust evenly.

3. Indicators with SA in the title have been seasonally adjusted.

Monthly Direct Debit average transaction amount and failure rate

The monthly Direct Debit failure rate and average transaction amount are anonymised and aggregated datasets made available to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) by Pay.UK and Vocalink. The data are unadjusted for inflation and reflect economic activity in nominal terms.

For further details on what is covered within this indicator, see our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology.

In January 2024, the total Direct Debit failure rate rose to 1.07%, the highest level seen since the data series started in January 2019; this is a 14% increase from January 2023. This increase was driven mainly by increases of 32% in the "electricity and gas" spending category and 21% in the "mortgages" spending category.

The total Direct Debit failure rate in January 2024 increased by 34% when compared with the previous month, December 2023. The largest increase was seen in the "loans" spending category, which increased by 38%. This is in line with seasonal trends seen in previous years, and for comparison, this rate increased by 35% between December 2023 and January 2023.

The total monthly average Direct Debit transaction amount in January 2024 increased by 3% when compared with January 2023. However, this amount remained broadly unchanged when compared with the previous month.

Our accompanying Monthly Direct Debit failure rate and average transaction amount dataset is available.

UK spending on debit and credit cards: weekly, seasonally adjusted CHAPS-based indicator

Users should note that the "work-related" and "social" CHAPS series have been withdrawn in 2024 because of sample population issues. We will continue publishing the aggregate, staple and delayable series while we are undertaking a review of the component series and will provide an update in due course. Please note that the "work-related" and "social" categories still contribute to the "aggregate" series.

The spending categories, when seasonally adjusted, recorded the following changes in the latest week:

• "aggregate" increased by 1%

• "delayable" was broadly unchanged

• "staple" increased by 1%

When compared with the same week in 2023, the spending categories, when seasonally adjusted, recorded the following changes:

• "aggregate" decreased by 2%

• "delayable" decreased by 11%

• "staple" increased by 2%

The weekly and monthly seasonally adjusted CHAPS indices, and the daily and monthly non-seasonally adjusted CHAPS indices, are available in our accompanying UK spending on credit and debit cards dataset.

Automotive fuel spending

In the week to 4 February 2024, the estimated growth in demand for fuel per transaction increased by 1 percentage point when compared with the previous week and was 4 percentage points higher than the equivalent period of 2023.

Average growth in fuel prices remained broadly unchanged when compared with the previous week. However, this was 14 percentage points lower than the equivalent period of 2023.

Our accompanying Automotive fuel spending dataset is available.

National retail footfall

Overall retail footfall in the week to 11 February 2024 decreased to 99% of the level seen in the previous week and 96% of the level in the equivalent week of 2023.

High street footfall decreased to 98% of the previous week, showing the biggest change across the three location categories. Over the same period, both retail park footfall and shopping centre footfall increased to 101%. When compared against the equivalent week in 2023, the largest change was observed in high street footfall, which decreased to 94% of the same week in the previous year.

Overall retail footfall decreased in 6 of the 12 UK countries and English regions, increased in three and remained broadly unchanged in three. The largest decreases occurred in the East Midlands and Wales, where footfall decreased to 96% of the level seen in the previous week, while the largest increases occurred in Northern Ireland and Scotland, both rising to 102% of the level seen in the previous week. When compared with the equivalent week in 2023, footfall in all 12 of the UK countries and English regions decreased. The largest change was observed in the North East, which decreased to 90% of the same week in the previous year.

Online job adverts

These figures are innovative estimates of online job adverts by category, UK country, and English region, provided by Adzuna, an online job search engine. The number of job adverts over time is an indicator of the demand for labour. The Adzuna categories used do not correspond to Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) categories, so these values are not directly comparable with our Vacancy Survey.

On the 9 February 2024 the number of online job adverts increased by 1% when compared with the previous week, as the number of online job adverts increased in 9 of the 12 UK countries and English regions, remained broadly unchanged in two and decreased in Northern Ireland. 

When compared with the equivalent period of 2023, the total number of online job adverts fell by 15% with the largest decrease in Scotland which was down by 27%. Regarding the 28 job categories, 17 increased, 2 remained broadly unchanged and 9 decreased when compared with the previous week. The largest increase was in the manufacturing category which was up by 20%.

Our accompanying Online job advert estimates dataset is available.

Business impact and insights

The Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) collects data from selected industries and does not have full coverage of the UK economy. For more information on the industries covered in the BICS sample, see our Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) QMI.

Advanced notification of potential redundancies

Calculated as a four-week rolling average, the number of potential redundancies in the week to 4 February 2024 was 3% below the level in the equivalent week in 2023. However, the number of employers proposing redundancies was 18% above the level in the equivalent week of 2023. 

Comparisons with the equivalent period a year ago help account for any seasonal impacts. For more information, our accompanying Advanced notification of potential redundancies dataset is available.

System Average Price (SAP) of gas 

In the week to 11 February 2024, the System Average Price (SAP) of gas decreased by 2% when compared with the previous week and was 52% below the equivalent week of 2023. 

Our accompanying System Average Price of gas dataset is available.

Weekly shipping indicators

In the week to 11 February 2024, the average number of daily ship visits increased by 1% when compared with the previous week. In the same period, the average number of daily visits from cargo and tanker ships decreased by 9%.

When compared with the equivalent week in 2023, the average number of daily ship visits decreased by 2% and the average number of daily visits from cargo and tanker ships decreased by 8%.

Our accompanying Weekly shipping indicators dataset is available.

Traffic camera activity

In the week to 11 February 2024, average traffic camera activity for cars in London decreased by 3% when compared with the previous week. Meanwhile, average pedestrian and cyclist levels in London decreased by 8% in the same period.

Our accompanying Traffic camera activity dataset is available.

Daily UK flights

In the week to 11 February 2024, the daily average number of UK flights increased by 8% when compared with the previous week and was 6% above the equivalent week of 2023.

Our accompanying Daily UK flights dataset is available.

This section lists a selection of the data available in this publication. For the full list of available datasets, please see our accompanying dataset page.

Real-time indicator

A real-time indicator provides insights into economic activity using close-to-real-time big data, administrative data sources, rapid response surveys or experimental estimates, which represent useful economic and social concepts.

Official statistics in development

These statistics are labelled as "official statistics in development". Until September 2023, these were called "experimental statistics". Read more about the change in our Guide to official statistics in development.

We are developing how we collect and produce the data to improve the quality of these statistics. Read more in our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology article.

Once the developments are complete, we will review the statistics with the Statistics Head of Profession. We will decide whether the statistics are of sufficient quality and value to be published as official statistics, or whether further development is needed. Production may be stopped if they are not of sufficient quality or value. Users will be informed of the outcome and any changes.

We value your feedback on these statistics. Contact us at realtime.indicators@ons.gov.uk.

These statistics have been produced to provide timely indicators of the effect of developing world events on the UK economy and society, using close-to-real-time big data, administrative data sources, rapid response surveys, or Official Statistics in development.

The data presented in this bulletin are reviewed and refreshed on a regular basis. Indicators are swapped in and out of the publication based on their suitability and availability.

UK coronavirus (COVID-19) restrictions

Coronavirus restrictions should be considered when interpreting the data featured throughout this bulletin.

Seasonality

Seasonal fluctuations are likely to be present in many of these indicators so caution must be applied when interpreting changes in series that are not seasonally adjusted.