FOI Ref: FOI/2021/3375
You asked
Please supply the following information:
1a. Please confirm numbers of Covid cases reported by variant type, month on month for the period December 2020 to December 2021 to date (15 December 2021).
1b. Please confirm the number of deaths BY Covid reported by variant type, month on month, for the period December 2020 to December 2021 to date (15 December 2021).
2a. Please confirm what tests are being used that can isolate and identify COVID cases but can also identify the actual variant type. This is what the Government has based its claims upon so the data source must be available.
2b. It would also be useful to be directed to the source of instructions and guidance provided to each Health Authority that shows how the tests that determine the variant strain for each positive case of "Covid" are collected, collated and verified, or direct me to the Givernment department who can answer these simple questions.
We said
Thank you for your request.
Our COVID-19 Infection Survey (CIS) is a household survey that estimates the number of people testing positive for infection and for antibodies in the UK. Our statistics refer to the number of current COVID-19 infections within the population living in private residential households. We exclude those in hospitals, care homes and/or other communal establishments. In communal establishments, rates of COVID-19 infection are likely to be different.
1a. You can find modelled daily rates of the percentage of the population testing positive for COVID-19 by ORF1ab+N (Omicron compatible) and other variants in tab 1c of the technical dataset accompanying our latest bulletin. Modelled daily rates of the percentage of the population testing positive for COVID-19 by gene pattern for previous surveillance time periods can be found in the back series of technical datasets. We began publishing this analysis on 8 January 2021. For time periods preceding April 2021 you can find the data in the back series of England datasets. Please note when nearly all infections are compatible with a dominant variant, we do not include this breakdown. This means that from 30 July to 17 December 2021, we did not update these tables since 99% of positive cases were compatible with the Delta variant.
In addition, the virus genetic material from positive samples is sent for whole genome sequencing, to find out more about the different types of virus and variants of virus circulating in the UK. For more information about this, please see section 4 (processing the data) of our methods article COVID-19 Infection Survey: methods and further information. The sequenced data can be found in tab 1e of the technical dataset accompanying our latest bulletin. Data for previous surveillance time periods can be found in the back series of technical datasets.
Please note that the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA, formerly public health England) is responsible for NHS test and trace data. You can find information about whole genome sequencing of a sample of the tests carried out by Test and Trace in their report on SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation. The relevant information is on page 3. For more information on the sequencing of COVID-19 in the government testing programme, you can contact UKHSA via email at informationrights@ukhsa.gov.uk.
1b. ONS mortality data is derived from information collated at the point of death registration. Currently we do not hold analysis of COVID-19 deaths related to the type of variant involved.
We are currently working on analysis of Omicron and Delta variant deaths in England using complex data linkage, but we do not have a provisional release date. Publication date will be released in our Release calendar.
As such, information for 2021 is considered exempt under Section 22(1) of the Freedom of Information Act 2000, whereby information is exempt from release if there is a view to publish the information in the future. Furthermore, as a central government department and producer of official statistics, we need to have the freedom to be able to determine our own publication timetables. This is to allow us to deal with the necessary preparation, administration and context of publications. It would be unreasonable to consider disclosure when to do so would undermine our functions.
This exemption is subject to a public interest test. We recognise the desirability of information being freely available and this is considered by ONS when publication schedules are set in accordance with the Code of Practice for Statistics. The need for timely data must be balanced against the practicalities of applying statistical skill and judgement to produce the high quality, assured data needed to inform decision-making. If this balance is incorrectly applied, then we run the risk of decisions being based on inaccurate data which is arguably not in the public interest. This will have an impact on public trust in official statistics in a time when accuracy of official statistics is more important to the public than ever before.
We do publish COVID-19 deaths without information on the variant involved in our Monthly Mortality Analysis.
2a. The CIS tests nose and throat swabs for SARS-CoV-2 using reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). The RT-PCR test looks for three genes present in coronavirus: N protein, S protein and ORF1ab. Each swab can have one, two or all three genes detected. The Alpha variant (B.1.1.7) of coronavirus (COVID-19) had changes in one of the three genes that COVID-19 swab tests detect, known as the S-gene. This means that the S-gene is not detected, and Alpha had the gene pattern ORF1ab+N (S-gene negative). The Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) also has changes to the S-gene and has the pattern ORF1ab+N. We know from whole genome sequencing that very few cases with the gene pattern ORF1ab+N are now the Alpha variant and that the Omicron variant is now the most common in the UK. Other variants, including Delta (B.1.617.2), are positive on all three genes, with the pattern ORF1ab+S+N. For more information, please see section 6 (analysis of viral load and variants of COVID-19) in our latest Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK bulletin.
2b. The UKHSA are responsible for the government testing programme and your request would be better addressed to them at informationrights@ukhsa.gov.uk.
Further information and an overview of data about the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic from the Office for National Statistic (ONS) and other sources can be found in our Coronavirus (COVID-19) latest insights tool.