You asked
From the information noted on the Government website and BBC, fox news websites:
One in 50 people are infected with Covid-19 as an estimated figure from ONS: Dec 27, 2020 to Jan 2, 2021
Could you advise the methodology and full analysis breakdown as to how the estimated figure was arrived at.
We said
Thank you for your request.
This estimate was calculated by taking the positivity rate (the percentage of the population testing positive for COVID-19) and dividing this by 100. The ratio is then rounded to the nearest 5.
The full analysis breakdown from the COVID-19 Infection Survey can be found in our most recent bulletin and accompanying data set. In this data set, you can find the official reported estimates of percentage testing positive for COVID-19:
- In England on tab 1a
- In Wales on tab 3a
- In Northern Ireland on tab 4a
- In Scotland on tab 5a
We use statistical modelling to estimate the number of people testing positive for COVID-19 at any point in time in the community. The model adjusts the survey results to be more representative of the overall population in terms of age, sex and region.
Our methodology article provides further information around the survey design, how we process data and how data are analysed. The study protocol specifies the research for the study.