FOI reference: FOI-2024-1849
You asked
Could you please provide me with details of the person or persons, who made the decision to change the way excess deaths are reporting?
I would like to know about any communications between your office and any government offices, regarding this matter.
My concerns regarding this matter, and also having a background in data analysis, is as follows:
The previous method of 5 year averages, includes population growth, one year at a time. It is only the most recent year, i.e. the last year where growth occurs. So, why the change? The timing of this change is also questionable, given the worldwide reporting of excess deaths. As far as I am aware no other country has made this adjustment, so why have you?
We said
Thank you for your request.
The decision to change our approach was based solely on statistical and methodological considerations, led by ONS in its capacity as the UK's independent national statistical institute. The approach was developed by a cross-organisation working group with representatives from different areas of the Office for National Statistics, the Office for Health Improvement and Disparities, the UK Health Security Agency, Public Health Wales, the Welsh Government, National Records of Scotland, the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency, and members of the actuarial profession. The formation of this working group was announced in February 2023, and all parties communicated regularly with one another throughout the duration of the project. During its development, the work was reviewed by the UK Statistics Authority's Methodological Assurance Review Panel and the UK Statistics Authority Board.
Our previous methodology calculated the expected number of deaths in the reference period by taking an average of the number of deaths over the past five years. This approach did not take account of the growth and ageing of the UK population (all else being equal, more people means more deaths, particularly if a greater share of the population are elderly); nor did it reflect recent trends in population mortality rates, which were generally falling until 2011 before levelling off until the onset of the pandemic. Accelerating population growth, particularly among people aged 70 years or older, during the COVID-19 pandemic (see Figure 3 in our article) provided an impetus to instigate this methodological development work.
There is no internationally agreed method for estimating the number of excess deaths, and different countries and organisations have their own approaches.