You asked
1. With regards to each of the following (or similar, if that is how the data has been collated) age ranges:
65 and above; 45 and 64; 25 and 44; under 25;
what proportion of the total number of people who, in a given period (say, monthly), have been reported as dying within 28 days of a positive COVID-19 test had no other reported co-morbidity?
I envisage a table for each age-range with the time-periods on one axis and, on the other axis:
(a) total deaths reported within 28 days of a positive COVID-19 test
(b) number with no other co-morbidity
(c) number with one other co-morbidity
(d) number with more than one other co-morbidity.
(e) proportion of deaths with no other co-morbidity
Are you able to provide that information (or, if it is already available, can you point me to where it can be found)?
2. I have also looked for (but been unable to find) any data on the UK's operational false-positive rate in respect of both the PCR tests and the Lateral-Flow tests in use. Is there any data yet available as to those false-positive-rates?
We said
Thank you for your enquiry.
1. The data you are referring to (deaths within 28 days of a positive test), are produced by Public Health England and published via the government's COVID-19 dashboard.
ONS data is different to that produced by PHE. You can read a blog by Professor John Newton of Public Health England about the complexities of counting COVID-19 deaths and the different methods used. Please contact coronavirus-tracker@phe.gov.uk for queries about this data.
ONS deaths data are derived from the formal process of death registration and may include cases where the doctor completing the death certificate diagnosed possible cases of COVID-19, for example, where this was based on relevant symptoms but no test for the virus was conducted. Guidance notes for doctors to follow when certifying a death, including best practice and the Coronavirus Act 2020, are available here: completing a medical certificate of cause of death (MCCD).
ONS hold data for England and Wales. For Scotland and Northern Ireland data you will need to contact National Records of Scotland and Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Centre, respectively.
ONS publish monthly mortality analysis, England and Wales which includes the number and proportion of death certificates in 2020 in England and Wales where the death was due to COVID-19 that had a top 20 (by frequency) pre-existing condition, by broad age (1-64 and 65 and over) and pre-existing condition are available in the 'pre-existing conditions of people who died due to COVID-19, England and Wales' dataset. These data are currently available for March to December 2020. Figures for January to March 2021 will be available in the next update of this publication on 20th May 2021.
We are unable to provide this data broken down into smaller age groups for the Under 65's, though this might be available on request after death registrations data are finalised and published in July 2021. Special extracts and bespoke tabulations of mortality data for England and Wales are subject to legal frameworks, disclosure control, resources and agreements of costs, where appropriate. Under the Freedom of Information Act 2000, Public Authorities are not obligated to create information to respond to FOI requests, such enquiries should be made to: Health.Data@ons.gov.uk
For all other monthly mortality analysis datasets, including numbers of deaths from all causes and leading causes up to March 2021, please follow the link from the main publication page or visit the datasets directly via this link. Latest weekly figures are also available in the provisional weekly deaths publication.
2. The COVID-19 Infection Survey is a representative household survey, which measures the number of people testing positive for infection in the UK. Our statistics refer to individuals in the community, by which we mean private households. These figures exclude infections reported in hospitals, care homes or other institutional settings. The survey began on 26 April 2020 in England and expanded to include Wales on 29 June 2020, Northern Ireland on 26 July 2020, and Scotland on 21 September 2020.
The COVID-19 Infection Survey only uses RT-PCR testing from nose and throat swabs, and so our data is related to positives identified through RT-PCR testing only, not through lateral flow tests.
To measure the accuracy of PCR testing, we look at test specificity and test sensitivity. Test specificity measures how often the test correctly identifies those who do not have the virus, and so a test with high specificity will not have many false-positive results.
We know the specificity of our test must be very close to 100% as the low number of positive tests in our study over the summer of 2020 means that specificity would be very high even if all positives were false. For example, in the six-week period from 31 July to 10 September 2020, 159 of the 208,730 total samples tested positive. Even if all these positives were false, specificity would still be 99.92%. More information on test specificity can be found in our methodology article and this article by our academic partners.
A study using data from the COVID-19 Infection Survey over the period 26 April to 11 October by our academic partners on cycle thresholds showed an overall false-positive rate for the period was below 0.005%, i.e. there was at least 99.995% specificity. The false-positive rate would be expected to be approximately constant over time since it is either random or driven by external factors.
Please also see our blog on why we can trust the COVID-19 Infection Survey data.
A recent study on test sensitivity and specificity of both PCR and lateral flow testing by the Department of Health and Social Care can be found here.