FOI Ref: FOI/2022/3486
You asked
Please supply the following information:
- What is the total UK fatality rate that can be attributed directly to the SARSCOV2 virus and not a death within 28-60 days of a positive PCR test result?
- What is the TRUE number of eligible unvaccinated people in the UK?
- How many UK fatalities have been attributed to Omicron in both the vaccinated and the unvaccinated
- How many UK Fatalities have been reported within 28 days of a vaccination but subsequently reported as unvaccinated?
You said
Thank you for your enquiry regarding deaths and the COVID-19 vaccination in the UK.
We are responsible for the production of mortality data for England and Wales, this is driven by information collected from the death certificate at death registration. National Records Scotland (NRS) and Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) are responsible for statistics pertaining to Scotland and Northern Ireland. They can be contacted at foi@nrscotland.gov.uk and info@nisra.gov.uk respectively.
Deaths registered due to and involving COVID-19 in England and Wales, not attributed to 28 days after positive test
Our data is derived from the death certificate, using information received at the point of death registration. This is different to the data used by UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) which records all deaths with a positive test within 28 days.
Our data as described here are different from the figures on COVID-19 deaths published on the government's COVID-19 dashboard which shows 'deaths within 28 days of a positive test'. You can read a blog by Professor John Newton of Public Health England about the complexities of counting COVID-19 deaths and the different methods used.
COVID-19 deaths registered in England and Wales
We can provide deaths registered with COVID-19 as the underlying cause or as a contributory cause in England and Wales. This is using information derived from the death certificate at the point of death registration.
We use the term "due to COVID-19" when referring only to deaths with an underlying cause of death as COVID-19 and we use the term "involving COVID-19" when referring to deaths that had COVID-19 mentioned anywhere on the death certificate, whether as an underlying cause or not. Information on cause of death coding is available in the User Guide to Mortality Statistics.
Annual data
We hold the following analysis Deaths due to COVID-19, registered in England and Wales: 2020 which has 81,795 deaths involving COVID-19, of which 73,766 deaths are registered as due to COVID-19 in England and Wales in 2020.
We have not yet completed analysis of 2021 COVID-19 deaths in this format, however, we have produced provisional monthly data for this year.
Monthly data
Provisional data for 2021 is available via the following link: Monthly mortality analysis, England and Wales. Table 3 shows monthly deaths due to COVID-19 in England and in Wales, and table 3b shows deaths involving COVID-19 in England and in Wales.
2022 data
Provisional data for 2022 is published in our Deaths Registered Weekly in England and Wales analysis. January 2022 data will also be published in the above Monthly Mortality Analysis publication in February 2022.
COVID-19 deaths attributed to the Omicron variant
The ICD-10 code for COVID-19 deaths is U07.1 for COVID-19 and U07.2 for suspected COVID-19. There is no difference in the ICD-10 code used to differentiate between specific COVID-19 variants, therefore, this information would need to be created using the complex data linkage of ONS mortality data to NHS Test and Trace. We therefore do not hold this information.
In case it is of interest, we are currently investigating data linkage to produce a study looking at COVID-19 deaths in both the Omicron and Delta variants. We currently do not have a publication date, but this will be announced on our Release Calendar in due course.
The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) may also be able to assist further. They can be contacted using the following email address: informationrights@ukhsa.gov.uk.
Number of unvaccinated individuals in the UK
We do not hold this information; our vaccination data is taken from information supplied by the National Immunisation Management System (NIMS) with data linkage to mortality or Census data.
Information on the numbers of vaccinated administered can be found on the Government dashboard. The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) may also be able to assist further. They can be contacted using the following email address: informationrights@ukhsa.gov.uk.
Deaths within 28 days of vaccination
Unfortunately, we do not hold information showing a breakdown of deaths specifically at 28 days after vaccination. To fulfil this request, we would need use a high level of statistical skill including complex data linkage and analysis of the mortality data and vaccinations data from the National Immunisation Management System (NIMS) to the 2011 Census and GP register to create a bespoke analysis or table. Under the Freedom of Information Act 2000, Public Authorities are not obligated to create information to respond to requests. This information therefore is not held.
However, we have published weekly counts of deaths, population and age-standardised mortality rates by vaccination status in our most recent publication on this topic, "Deaths involving COVID-19 by Vaccination Status, England: deaths occurring between 2 January and 31 October 2021". We use 21 days after vaccination as this is when the vaccine is deemed to be effective.
The data are for England only, as vaccinations data for Wales is not yet available to be linked to the mortality dataset and the Public Health Data Asset covers England only. Therefore, we consider data for Wales as information not held.
Table 5 of this publication shows monthly age-standardised mortality rates by age-group and vaccination status for deaths involving COVID-19 from January to October 2021.
Our next publication will include booster jabs which will be published in February 2022.
UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) publish data that could help answer your enquiry. They publish a weekly surveillance report which looks at the impact on hospitalisations, infection, vaccine effectiveness and COVID-19 mortality. They can be contacted on InformationRights@UKHSA.gov.uk.
The UKHSA weekly surveillance report includes numbers of COVID-19 deaths (defined as a death within 28 or 60 days of a positive COVID-19 test) for 4 week periods, by vaccination status, where vaccination status is defined relative to the infection date, rather than the date of death as for the ONS releases on deaths by vaccination status.