You asked
With regard to the analysis "Percentage of cases that are positive for ORF1ab and N genes" published by ONS on 19 December 2020, ONS has indicated that the new VUI2020/12/01 variant of COVID-19 - which tests positive only for ORF1ab and N genes - was detected in the highest numbers in the North West/ Yorkshire and the Humber at the end of September through to early November.
Please advise to ONS' knowledge when this new variant was first identified, and where it was first found.
Please advise when concerns about higher transmissibility of this new variant first arose.
Please advise what action was taken by ONS and its partner organisations involved in the coronavirus national infection survey, regarding any concerns about the new variant's higher transmissibility.
Please advise when communication with the Prime Minister and Cabinet Office about the new variant first took place.
Please advise what advice was given to the Prime Minister and Cabinet Office about an appropriate response to the new variant and its higher transmissibility, and when this was first given.
We said
Thank you for your request.
ONS were made aware of a potential new variant of COVID-19 on Friday 11 December.
Our academic partner regularly produces Cycle thresholds analysis. To investigate the potential of a new variant this Cycle thresholds analysis was reproduced on Tuesday 15 December which was available to ONS on Wednesday 16 December. This analysis showed the proportion of ORF1ab and N positive cases from the COVID-19 Infection Survey.
The new variant of COVID-19 has genetic changes in the S gene. This means the S-gene is no longer detected in the current test, and cases that would have previously been positive on all three genes are now positive only on the ORF1ab and the N gene (not the S gene).There are also other reasons why a swab may be positive for only these two genes, including lower viral load in the sample, which is why we have always seen a small percentage of this type of positive result. The dropping of the S-gene became a relatively reliable indicator of the new variation in COVID-19 from mid-November. Prior to that, the data should not be read as being an indicator of the variant.
This paper was circulated as management information to a restricted list of people across Government on Wednesday 16 December. This management information from the COVID-19 Infection Survey was made available to government decision makers to inform their response to COVID-19.This is consistent with guidance from the Office for Statistics Regulation.
This analysis was subsequently published on 19 December here and Monday 21 December here.
Our academic partner produced analysis on the growth rates of the new variant compatible in comparison to the other variant to contribute to the understanding of the transmissibility of the potential new variant. This analysis was provided to a restricted list of people across Government on 23 December and published the same day here.
There has been no direct contact between ONS and the Prime Minister about the new variant nor has ONS given any policy related advice to the Prime Minister or Cabinet Office about an appropriate response to the new variant and its higher transmissibility.