FOI REF: FOI-2023-1215
You asked
I seek to establish the exact criteria used to record those exiting UK who are then to be included to NET statics annually published. UK passport holders and those who qualify to reside with right to remain UK or any other category of traveller that is included.
Are British passport holders, Irish passport and those with leave to remain in UK when travelling [millions] out of UK annually, subject to inclusion in NET statics even if absent for more than one year, as all enjoy the right of return at anytime in the future?
What criteria is used exactly, with regard to aforementioned categories, establishing as qualifying to having emigrated from UK. For example, if they fail to return after a one year absence is that then regarded as a net statistic. If on their return, are they then included in the annual gross immigration figures published?
What criteria is employed to any other categories of those exiting UK for NET inclusion. For example, foreign national students, those foreign nationals here on business, those working here, those visiting family, and any other category of departure or arrival previously, that have been UK over one year. Would any, all, or any other category with less than one year resident in UK [please advise] be included in the annual statistics?
As millions of foreign nationals who are not UK citizens now reside in UK, how are their arrivals and departures treated annually when compiling the annual statistics?
We said
Thank you for your Freedom of Information request.
Regarding your first question, our Long-Term International Migration (LTIM) immigration estimates are those people who have moved to the UK long-term and the emigration estimates are those people that have left the UK long-term. The net estimate is the difference between these two estimates in any one year (LTIM net migration = LTIM immigration in that year -- LTIM emigration in that year). For more detailed information on the methodology of our estimates please see 'Methods to produce provisional long-term international migration estimates'.
We define long-term as "A person who moves to a country other than that of his or her usual residence for a period of at least a year (12 months), so that the country of destination effectively becomes his or her new country of usual residence."
This means that people who travel out of the UK short-term (less than 12 months) are not included in our long-term international migration estimates. Our estimates cover everyone who has left the UK for at least 12 months, or has arrived in the UK for at least 12 months, regardless of whether they require a visa to reside in the UK or whether they have freedom of movement. Therefore, British passport holders and Irish passport holders are included in the estimates if they meet the LTIM criteria. We currently do not have a suitable methodology to include non-EU nationals with Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR) in our estimates. We are working on progressing our methods to include this group in our estimates for November 2023. However, our estimates include all non-EU national visa holders who move to the UK and when they subsequently leave.
In regard to your second question, the migration (immigration and emigration) estimates for British passport holders are currently based on the International Passenger Survey (IPS) which is an intentions-based survey. Any British nationals who leave the UK long-term are included in our emigration estimates in the year they leave. If they subsequently move back to the UK long-term they will be included in our immigration estimates in the year they return.
Migration estimates of EU nationals (which includes Irish nationals) uses an absence of activity on the data feeds of the Registration and Population Interaction Database (RAPID) for a whole tax year to estimate emigration. Therefore, any Irish Nationals who leave the UK long-term are included in our emigration estimates in the year they leave. If they subsequently move back to the UK long-term they will be included in our immigration estimates in the year they return.
For non-EU nationals with Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR), we currently do not have a suitable methodology to include this group in our estimates. We are working on progressing our methods to include this group in our estimates for November 2023.
In regard to your third question, just to reiterate, our estimates are for long-term migration only and we do not count anyone who has a stay of less than a year.
As previously explained, our methods for British Nationals are based on the IPS. For all EU nationals we use the Registration and Population Interactions Database (RAPID) to estimate immigration and emigration. To estimate emigration we look for signs of long-term inactivity with the earnings and benefits data that feed into RAPID, which suggests that these individuals are no longer resident in the UK and have therefore emigrated.
For non-EU estimates of those who hold a visa we use Home Office Borders and immigration data which combines visa and travel information. To estimate emigration we identify previous long-term immigrants with a last departure from the UK during the reference period. We record them as a long-term emigrant if they do not return to the UK within 12 months, or if they only return for a short-term stay. Our estimates include people who migrate for any reason, including those stated in your question. Our latest publications includes estimates by reason for migration to provide users insights on why people move to and from the UK.
In answer to your final question, our LTIM estimates are what we refer to as 'Flows' - The number of people moving into and out of the UK. We also measure 'stocks' which are the number of non-UK born or non-British citizens resident in the UK at a given point in time.
When a non-UK national arrives long-term into the UK they are included in our immigration estimates. When they are resident in the UK they will be included in our "stocks" population estimate. At the point at which they leave the UK long-term they will be included in our emigration estimates using the methods described above.
If you need anything further, please do not hesitate to contact us at pop.info@ons.gov.uk.