Population statistics newsletter: Summer 2018

Progress with our Government Statistical Service programme means that we continue providing a broader picture of migration trends based on all available sources. Around 270,000 more people came to the UK than left in the year ending March 2018, so long-term net migration has continued to add to the UK population (Migration Statistics Quarterly Report, 23 August 2018).

Net migration has fallen from the peak levels seen in 2015 and 2016 and has remained broadly stable since. Underlying this period of stability, long-term immigration and long-term emigration have remained broadly stable at around 610,000 and 340,000 respectively in the year ending March 2018.

Although the estimates show an increase in long-term net migration over the latest year, this was due to an unusual decrease in the International Passenger Survey estimates for student immigration in 2016 that was not seen in other data sources, and that our quality work suggested was an anomaly. We therefore do not recommend that users make year-on-year comparisons over this period and instead look at the broader evidence and longer time series.

EU net migration was at its lowest level since 2012 but continues to add to the UK population, with around 90,000 more EU citizens coming to the UK than leaving in the year ending March 2018. The estimated number of EU citizens coming to the UK to work has continued to decrease. The main decrease between 2016 and 2017 was in EU citizens looking for work. Much of the most recent decrease can be accounted for by a fall in the number coming to the UK for a definite job over the last year, particularly citizens of EU15 countries.

To account for the unusual pattern in immigration for study, we have produced an illustrative revised trend for immigration and net migration (Figure 1). The adjusted figures were calculated by applying the year-on-year percentage changes in Home Office non-EU long-term student visa data to the International Passenger Survey (IPS) estimates for non-EU immigration for study. The resulting additional immigrants were then added to overall immigration and net migration estimates. More information can be found in Section 3 of this article.

Figure 1: Long-Term International Migration, UK, year ending June 2008 to year ending March 2018

Download this image Figure 1: Long-Term International Migration, UK, year ending June 2008 to year ending March 2018

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On 19 June 2018, we published an article, Migrant labour force within the construction industry, that used official data sources to look at the current composition of the overall construction contracting labour market in the UK. This included looking at how the workforce is ageing, the concentration of workers in London and the South East, high levels of self-employment, and an occupational breakdown in the industry with a focus on how these characteristics differ between UK and non-UK nationals. The paper also looked into the next steps that could be taken to help build the evidence base.

Some of the main points included:

• estimates from the Annual Population Survey show that an average of 2.2 million people worked in the construction industry between 2014 and 2017, accounting for 7% of all workers in the UK

• 7% of workers in the construction industry in the UK are EU27 nationals and 3% are non-EU, compared with 6% EU27 nationals and 4% non-EU nationals in all other industries in the UK (excluding construction)

• in London, 28% of construction workers are EU27 nationals and 7% are non-EU nationals; this compared with 13% who are EU27 nationals and 10% non-EU nationals for all other industries in London (excluding construction)

The age structure of construction workers also changed between 1991 and 2011, with increases in UK-born workers in the older age-ranges. For non-UK workers the increases were in the younger age ranges (except 16 to 24) with decreases in the older age ranges.

Figure 2: The age distribution of the construction workforce, by country of birth, at the 1991, and 2011 Census

Source: ONS Longitudinal Study

Download this image Figure 2: The age distribution of the construction workforce, by country of birth, at the 1991, and 2011 Census

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The 2016-based subnational population projections for England show all regions increasing in population by mid-2026, with regions in the south growing faster than those in the north. London is projected to be the fastest-growing region, the North East the slowest.

At local authority level, all but 15 of England’s 326 local authorities are projected to grow over this period, with the fastest growth being in Tower Hamlets. The ageing population means that, by mid-2026, nearly a third of local authorities are projected to have at least a quarter of their population aged 65 or over. In England all regions are expected to grow between 2016 and 2026, with the fastest growth in London (8.8%) and the slowest in the North East (1.0%).

For more information see our subnational population projections bulletin (published 24 May 2018), which also includes interactive maps and population pyramids to help you explore and interpret the data.

In 50 years’ time, in the UK there are projected to be an additional 8.6 million residents who are aged 65 and over. This is roughly the size of London today and people aged 65 and over will make up over a quarter of the UK population. Generally, people are living longer and there are fewer children being born, leading to an ageing population. The UK is not alone in experiencing this change; it is happening globally and while living longer is something to be celebrated, our ageing population presents both opportunities and implications for the economy, services and society.

We have begun work to improve the available information, to help the UK and other countries understand what it means to have an ageing population.

Within the UK and internationally, better data will mean that we can better understand the implications of and prepare for our changing populations. In this blog, we outline the analysis we have already undertaken exploring the ageing population in the UK and set out how we are beginning to work in partnership to further improve our evidence base in this important area.

On 20 June 2018, we published 2016-based household projections for England: changes to methodology. This note summarised methodological changes being implemented for the 2016-based household projections for England. It also asked for users’ views on the household type breakdowns to be used for the 2016-based household projections for England and on potential future variant household projections. The deadline for feedback was 18 July 2018. The 2016-based household projections for England are provisionally due to be published in September 2018. Our hope is that future rounds of household projections for England will be published at the same time as, or shortly after, the Subnational Population Projections (SNPPs). This has not been possible for the 2016-based round due to the additional research we have been carrying out to review the methodology.

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