ONS Population Statistics Newsletter: Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2016

Over the next quarter we will be reviewing the newsletter content and circulation. We welcome any views you have about what how we can make the newsletter more relevant (or even if you wish to carry on receiving it). Please email the Stakeholder Engagement team.

What has happened this quarter in population statistics?

Population Statistics Research Unit

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) and the Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG) have agreed that ONS will take responsibility with immediate effect for the production and publication of the household projections in England, previously produced by DCLG. We hope that this transfer of responsibility will further improve the consistency between the household projections and the national and subnational population projections and allow us to make some efficiencies in their production. Queries on the household projections should be directed to pop.info@ons.gov.uk.

The next set of these projections will be published in 2018 as previously planned.

ONS is keen to ensure that following this transfer the projections continue to be produced to the highest standards and to meet user needs. As part of this we will shortly launch a technical consultation on the household projections methodology, and be seeking feedback from stakeholders on how they use the projections.

If you would like to look at previous releases of household projections, these can be found on the DCLG website.

The latest news on our research and development of new methods is available in our population statistics research update.

Migration

On 1 December 2016, the latest migration statistics quarterly report for the year ending (YE) June 2016 was published. Long-Term International Migration (LTIM) estimates in the YE June 2016 were:

• net migration = +335,000 (similar to YE June 2015), comprising +189,000 EU citizens, +196,000 non-EU citizens and -49,000 British citizens

• immigration = 650,000, the highest estimate recorded (up 11,000 (not statistically significant) from YE June 2015)

• emigration = 315,000 (up 12,000 (not statistically significant) from YE June 2015), net migration was similar to the YE March 2016 estimate of +326,000.

Our next release, on 23 February 2017, will include LTIM data for the YE September 2016 with visa and National Insurance number (NINo) data to year ending December 2016 and labour market data for October to December 2016. Therefore, this will cover a longer period following the EU referendum. LTIM estimates covering a full year after the EU referendum (YE June 2017) will be available in November 2017.

Also published on 1 December were our final annual LTIM, International Passenger Survey (IPS) and methodology tables for 2015. Most of the 52 updated tables contain information on migration by a number of other variables besides citizenship and reason for migration, for example, by age, sex and country of birth. A more detailed overview of the various data tables can be found in the accompanying spreadsheet. The IPS quality information in relation to migration flows document was also updated.

There are many sources of official statistics that measure the number and characteristics of international migration in and out of the UK (flows) as well as the migrants who have settled in the UK (stocks). We have produced several notes this year looking at how some of these sources differ, such as: the note on International Student Migration; IPS and National Insurance number reconciliation note; and the IPS and Annual Population Survey (APS) comparison paper. A separate summary note takes some of the main themes from these notes to help users understand that the differences between the sources are driven by differences in definitions and coverage.

Following from the International Student Migration note, an update paper was published on 16 November 2016.

On 21 December 2016, ONS gave evidence on EU international migration to the House of Lords EU Select Committee.

Population projections

In the last edition, we mentioned the publication of supplementary analyses to the 2014-based subnational population projections. We would still welcome your feedback on the usefulness of these analyses and whether there is anything more we could be doing.

In addition, we mentioned our research report on variant subnational population projections. We would also like to hear your views on this; in particular, whether the variants described in the report would be useful to you, what other variants you may find useful and what challenges you think they might raise.

Please send any comments to pop.info@ons.gov.uk.

Demographic Analysis Unit

Increasing numbers of people are living to very old ages (90 and over). This has led to growing interest in obtaining accurate estimates of population numbers and mortality rates by single year of age at these ages.

On 12 December 2016, we published our research into the accuracy of official high age population estimates.

The research assessed the quality of the component input data for official mid-year population estimates for ages 80 and over (deaths registrations; census estimates and migration estimates). The method used to distribute the official age 90 and over mid-year estimate to single years of age above age 90 (the Kannisto-Thatcher method) was also assessed.

The report showed that the estimates of the very old are of high quality. We identified a number of further research topics that could be undertaken. During the next 6 to 9 months, we will be extending the work to validate age at death to a sample of those aged 90 to 94. We will also be assessing whether producing UK level population estimates from UK level deaths data (as opposed to aggregating 90 and over population estimates for individual UK countries) would improve the quality of the UK estimates.

In the medium-term, some of the topics identified could further improve the methodology; in particular, modelling the potential impact of differing levels of migration on high age estimates; investigating ways to improve the emigration estimate at the oldest ages as a component of change in the mid-year population estimates; and considering alternative ways (in the method) for allowing for changes in the mortality rates over time. These will need to be considered alongside other divisional priorities within our future research plans.

Longitudinal Study Development Team

We released a new version of the Longitudinal Study (LS) research database incorporating events from 2014. If you are a UK-based researcher from the public, academic or voluntary sectors who would like to know more about how to use the LS, please contact the Centre for Longitudinal Study Information and User Support (CeLSIUS). Researchers based outside the UK or working in other sectors should contact ONS's Longitudinal Study Development Team at longitudinalstudy@ons.gov.uk.

Analytical Impact Team

On 11 October 2016, we published an analysis based on the Longitudinal Study that studied people who had been serving in the UK armed forces at the times of the 1971 and 1991 Censuses. The analysis reported their status with regards to economic activity, occupation and qualifications recorded at later censuses.

This analysis was supplied to Deloitte LLP who were conducting research in conjunction with the Forces in Mind Trust and the Officers’ Association into the challenges faced by UK veterans entering employment. This is their full report; Veterans Work: Recognising the potential of ex-service personnel.

Divisional news

Working with Census, and on behalf of the office as a whole, Population Statistics Division published a gender identity update paper on 13 January 2017. This addresses our commitment to review the Trans Data Position Paper which we published in 2009. The update outlines developments around the topic of gender identity and covers:

• legislation

• the Women and Equalities Committee Transgender Equality inquiry

• data collection and question development worldwide

• our research, testing and findings so far

• the next steps and future work we will be undertaking

For further information about our work on gender identity, please take a look at our webpage.

What will be happening in the next quarter?

PSD releases: Quarter 1 (January to March 2017)

UK electoral statistics for 2016
22 February 2017 provisional

Migration Statistics Quarterly Report, provisional International Passenger Survey, Long-Term International Migration year to Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2016
23 February 2017

Please follow our Population Statistics Division statistician on Twitter @PaulVickers_ONS for the latest in population statistics news and updates.

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