ONS Population Statistics Newsletter – Quarter 1 (January to March) 2016

What has happened this quarter in population statistics?

We released our annual Electoral statistics for the UK and its constituent countries, local government areas and parliamentary constituencies. The statistics showed that there had been a 1.3% fall in both the number of UK parliamentary and local Government electors and that the only country of the UK to see a rise was Northern Ireland. This generated a fair amount of media interest with the upcoming elections and the boundary review.

The quarterly migration release was published providing the latest migration figures showing:

In the year ending (YE) September 2015:

• net long-term international migration = +323,000 (up 31,000 from YE September 2014)
• immigration = 617,000 (up 2,000 from YE September 2014)
• emigration = 294,000 (down 29,000 from YE September 2014)

As usual this release generated a lot of media attention, particularly around the difference between the migration estimates and the IPS and National Insurance Number (NINo) registrations. As a response the team put out a note to talk about the differences. A more detailed reconciliation note will be published with May MSQR on 26th May.

A paper was also written about International Student Migration, setting out what the latest student migration figures show, the impact on net migration, potential traps when interpreting the figures and possible future developments of data sources. This was published by the newly formed Migration Analysis Group, which has been set up to up to provide analysis and expertise within ONS to inform policy debate on immigration across government.

A short article on Young people living with their parents was produced on the visual.ons site, bringing together data on living arrangements and housing. Some key stories from this piece identified around 1 in 4 young people (age 20 to 34) were living with their parents in 2015 and that the amount paid for a house by first time buyers with a mortgage was around 4.5 times their annual income.

Another popular article on surviving to 100 was released, including a calculator that compares your life expectancy to the state pension age. Have a look at this article to find out how age and sex can affect your chances of living to 100.

A user workshop was held on 23rd March 2016 to present the initial findings from our review of the methodology for producing estimates of the very old. This included presentations on the quality of the input data sources and on the Kannisto-Thatcher (KT) methodology. Presentations were also given from the Census Transformation Programme on lessons learned from the 2011 Census and plans for the 2021 Census for estimating the older population, and research into the use of administrative data sources for producing population estimates. A report detailing the initial outcomes of the methodological review of estimates of the very old will be published in May 2016. For further information please contact ageing@ons.gov.uk.

New ONS website

At the end of February the new ONS website was launched. A blog post was written by the team to provide some more information about the launch and the work that went into it. There will be a permanent team in place now to continue developing and improving the site. Users do still have the ability to provide feedback via the website, so do let them know if you find anything by using the feedback button on the website.

What will be happening in the next quarter?

The end of May will see the release of the 2014-based Sub National Population Projections, providing an indication of the future size and age structure of the population in the regions, local authorities and clinical commissioning groups. The previous Sub National projections (2012-based) are available. The Sub national Population Projections Consultation response will also be published alongside this release.

The annual population estimates are due to be published at the end of June, providing the latest figures for the size of the population by age and sex. In 2014 the population of the UK was estimated to be 64.6 million.

The Small Area Population estimates (SAPE) have recently been subject to a methodology quality assurance review. We aim to share the recommendations from this review with users in a summary paper in April. Following the review we will evaluate the SAPE estimates, and as part of this evaluation will seek user feedback to inform our research to address the recommendations. We will highlight the release through StatsUserNet, and our twitter account @paulvickers_ONS, and we would welcome user feedback on this by the end on June 2016.

PSD Releases Quarter 1 (January to March) 2016

What improvements are we going to be making?

We are constantly seeking ways to improve our population statistics, whether through development of new methods, new sources or new outputs to fill gaps in our portfolio. The table below shows our current priorities for this improvement research, together with expected completion times for research.

We will consult with users of our statistics as the work develops to ensure people are kept abreast of upcoming changes and given the opportunity to provide feedback. The timing of much of the research is such that improvements can be made to the 2017 Mid Year Estimates produced in Q2 2018.

Resourcing and Research

Like all government departments the ONS is committed to making efficiencies to ensure available resources are used most effectively. This is particularly relevant since the Government Spending Review 2015 reduces ONS core funding by 19 per cent by 2019/20, in order to free up resources for transformation. Within Population Statistics Division we have reviewed our programme of research work to identify the high priority requirements, identifying what we can do within given budgets and this assessment is reflected in the table above. This also means the priorities are subject to change. We will, however, keep users updated with any such changes as they are made.

Current and forthcoming consultations

ONS consults with users regularly on developments and outputs. The following are either current or are planned for the near future.

• we will shortly be releasing a report on the methodology used to produce Small Area Population Estimates and will be inviting feedback
• similarly, on completion of the improvement research on internal migration and on emigration methods we will be inviting feedback
• we will be publishing a report on the accuracy of high age population estimates in Spring 2016
• we recently consulted on whether to provide confidence intervals around marital status estimates. The response received suggested a quality measure would be helpful and so we will look at providing this in future

We will continue with to inform and consult on methodological changes as they are developed.

Quality Assurance of Administrative Data

We have recently been working with the UK Statistics Authority Assessment team on meeting recommendations for population estimates and population projections. As part of this we are committed to providing appropriate quality assurance around the various administrative data sources that are currently used in the production of our statistics. This is in line with the UK Statistics Authority monitoring standards.

We have assessed the level of quality assurance required for each of the administrative sources we use and have planned a rolling programme to publish the results of the assurance by the end of 2016. We will be working closely with colleagues in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland in delivering this programme of assurance.

Recent Meetings

The minutes of several key population statistics boards are publicly available:

• Population Theme Group Meeting
• Population Statistics Advisory Board
• CLIP Population Subgroup Meeting minutes are available on StatsUserNet and on the CLIP group Knowledge Hub

Accessibility of outputs

Hopefully you are aware that we are making as much data as possible freely available in a reusable format in line with open data principles, and ensuring that our dissemination remains responsive to the changing digital landscape. We are committed to continuing this into the future so that people who use our statistics don’t have to spend time and effort manipulating outputs. For example:

• the mid-year population estimates release included csv files and figures were also available through the ONS Data Explorer and API
• the last marital status and estimates of the very old publications included csv files for the first time
• the national population projections included xml files (on a special "open data" page)
• the small area population estimates tables are currently only in Excel format but we intend to put them in Data Explorer where earlier years already sit
• the 2014-based Subnational Population Projections (to be released in May 2016) are planned to go into Data Explorer (where the 2012-based projections already sit)
• we have published a back series of mid-year estimates on the Nomis (Labour Market Statistics) website

Corrections Policy

The ONS corrections policy is to ensure that an error in any ONS data, on the ONS, NeSS or Visual.ONS websites or our social media channels, will be appropriately managed and communicated to all users. This will be adopted for all Population Statistics Outputs. Please get in contact if you have any queries.

Other developments

Up until now, estimates of the very old and marital status estimates have been produced for England and Wales combined. In line with users’ views we have planned some work to investigate the feasibility of producing separate England and Wales estimates of the very old in time for the next publication in September.

Producing separate totals for England and Wales for the marital status estimates is more straightforward and we intend to provide these for future publications, subject to the usual considerations about sample size and the resulting robustness of the estimates.

Manchester, Birmingham and London, 8th, 9th and 12th February 2016

The roadshow involved:

1. a presentation providing users with an update on the latest developments that have been made to population statistics including innovations in methods, dissemination, data visualisation and Census updates. An update was also given on the planned research

2. a workshop was held to gain feedback from our stakeholders on what do we do well, what could we improve and what do users want more/less of

Thank you to all those who attended if you have any further feedback or comments please do get in contact.

This note discusses the topics that were covered in the workshop, responses and/or additional information from ONS has been provided where possible.

Data – What users like

• small are single year of age data e.g. births, deaths, population
• local level data
• the ability to download population pyramid data from the population analysis tool
• the Local Area Migration Indicators Suite combines data and is cross-cutting; would like to see more tools similar to this
• all population geographies released in one file for mid-year estimate
• information on the accuracy, regularity and reliability of population statistics
• the work that has been done on reviewing problems, such as the UPC
• methodology reports are thorough and well explained
• open data for the National Population Projections
• improved understanding of the implications of assumptions

Data – What users would like

• more data on subgroups such as such sexual orientation and disability estimates at local level. Ethnicity estimates are of particular interest to users, they are important for policy work and the Census data available is increasingly out of date. Users would also like projections by ethnic group at local level. The need for ethnicity data were highlighted by numerous users
  • developing methods to produce estimates of population subgroups is one of our research priorities. The timetable for this work is still under consideration and we will keep users informed through StatsUserNet and the Population Statistics Newsletter
• labour force projections, good emigration data, SNPP components of change, partnership/marital status projections and monthly births by LA (useful for academic year)
  • The Vital Statistics Branch will be producing provisional live births data (by LA by month by sex of baby) for Jan-Aug 16 in Dec 16/Jan 17. We will keep stakeholders informed through StatsUserNet and the Population Statistics Newsletter
  • since both the national and subnational projections are published by single year of age and sex, users can derive projections for any age group they need (we don't produce projections of economic activity rates). We also publish detailed components of change for the subnational population projections as a standard part of the release
  • we are planning to implement an updated version of our model of emigration at the Local Authority level in the 2017 MYE: as at present, the detailed estimates from that model will be published as part of the MYE release (for example, see Table MYEB2 for 2014)
• geography levels – users would like more data at lower geographies (possibly using administrative data) other than Census, including parishes and ward level data over MSOA. More county/regional level data and regional analysis would be helpful. Wider UK comparisons/inclusion of other constituent countries was also mentioned. Would also like clearer meta-data in relation of geographies
  • ONS publishes small area population estimates annually, this release includes estimates for wards and parliamentary constituencies. ONS recognises a variety of geographies are required for different user needs, and In addition supporting information at OA level is available to allow users to create bespoke geographies. ONS will consider the different geographies analysed in statistical bulletins and review the meta-data in relation to geographies
  • ONS Geography have undertaken a consultation to receive feedback on their products and services. This closed on 7th March and a response will be available in due course
• improved ability to obtain historic projections (different terms and Scotland)
  • previous sets of National Projections are available for 1954-based to 2004-based and 2006-based and later. Sets of the Subnational Projections for England are available
• more file formats that are machine readable and releases from different years stored together, to easily extract data for a number of years
  • we have moved a long way towards this by having publishing our detailed population estimates and projections as 'open data' files - CSV format files designed to be easily read into a database. We are also using the Data Explorer and the ONS API to make our data available in flexible formats to suit your needs. In response to user requests we have also published our population estimates on NOMIS, and plan to follow suit with the subnational projections this year
• align vital stats outputs with mid-year period for ease of use/interpretation
  • the definitive ONS statistics on births and deaths are published on a calendar year basis, though quarterly data can allow aggregation to mid-year to mid-year. However, the estimates of births and deaths (by age and sex) used in producing the LA population estimates are published as part of that release (again, see Table MYEB2 for 2014)

Bulletins

• bulletins are too long, they should be more concise. However, they are useful in providing the national context and provide a starting point for users to produce their own analysis
• provide less commentary and more visuals/charts
• some of the information provided in the bulletins are useful, however they are not needed in every single release e.g. who uses the statistics
• LA users are most interested in having regular, reliable data, however it was recognised that there is a need for some users to have some commentary
• quality of data is of highest priority
• more local analysis would be welcomed

This was covered by the ONS response to its consultation will be published in due course.

Visualisations/visuals

• many would like to see more interactive tools and maps, they are engaging and help understanding. However some have no use for these type of products
• the key topic of discussion was how users could produce their own visualisations. ONS have an in-house data visualisation team who build the products, rather than using specific software. It is possible to embed some of the interactives using the code provided, however users would like to see more of this. More support/tools/templates to produce/replicate infographics for local areas to support better decisions was requested. For example the ability to provide personalised infographics for LAs by entering the values and then the graphic is generated
• not all interactive content works on all browsers, many local area users are still on internet explorer 8, which do not show the visuals
  • internet explorer does not interpret the markup/code used to create our interactive (d3) very well. This means we either do not create any interactive or we create them but they are unfortunately only available on particular browsers such as Chrome and Firefox
• a question was raised about whether the ONS youtube channel and videos would be bought back
  • there is currently no plan for this as they are resource intensive, did not receive many views and they are difficult to update with the latest figures
• for users at this event the priority is the data and quality, rather than infographics/visuals
• need to ensure maintain quality of products over the ‘nice-to’haves’

Communication

• users would like a central point of contact or clarification on who to contact and better feedback options but do like the contact information on the bulletins, giving the ability to pick up the phone
  • please find below a list of all the inboxes within PSD, if you have a query or any feedback please use the most appropriate address and we will ensure it reaches the correct person. We are looking into consolidating our inboxes for the future
• communication is quite generalist, it would be better to tailor to the intermediate/LA audience. Some LAs have no research teams and county teams are broken up so targeted communication would help
• the quarterly newsletters are useful and include links to all the releases, some users don’t have the time to follow the forums/blogs so email bulletins are more useful
• user engagement and consultation events such as these are very useful to meet those behind the releases, aid understanding and to be kept informed of developments such as the Personal Demographic Service. Users appreciated the opportunity to talk to ONS about its outputs and receive updates and commented that we are increasingly receptive to discussion. However, having earlier consultations would provide more time to implement any responses
• users would like more of the best practice guidance and how to use it
• the publication release calendar is clear
• Twitter – on publication day all the tweets come out at once, it would be better to spread them out throughout the day on busy publication times. Also LAs do not have access to twitter

To take forward/improvements

• improve the link between LAs and ONS
  • Central and Local Intelligent Partnership population sub-group (CLIP) are looking into this
• the neighbourhood statistics website needs updating as some data is not up-to-date but the site is still used for planning services
• always keen for the accuracy of population estimates to keep improving and continuing work on reviewing problems such as the UPC
• emigration is difficult to measure; this would be an interesting and useful research project
• suggestion for ONS to take over household projections so that they are better aligned
• education/training – suggestion to run an online tutorial (or similar) on how to use the statistics. Some groups do not grasp or mis-interpret the data, therefore it could be useful to provide some good practice guidelines and/or examples. Such as ‘this is how/where planners have used our data’

Other feedback

• updates on Census are very useful, please continue to do this
• LAs are moving to generic research roles, therefore there is less resource and expertise. Anything that can be produced at the local level is welcome, particularly visual tools
• better promotion and more communication over what is happening to the API is needed. The more places the data is displayed, the better, however need to signpost to it. Need more communication. How can use the API to link to own local information system?
• need updates on neighbourhood statistics as it is still being used
• very positive feedback received about Nomis, it is easy to use and is accessible so keep using it. Users would like to see more data on Nomis, particularly the small area population estimates
• ONS Geography site is very good and possibly under promoted
• would like the ability to produce bespoke geographies in light of the devolutions

We continue to review the way we communicate with our stakeholders and the products we provide. Our overall goal is to understand our data so that it can inform the policies and decisions our stakeholders take.

We will consider these ideas in the future both in roadshows and in our ongoing communications.

Visual.ons – A new site that was launched a year ago to sit alongside the main ONS website and hosts a range of short articles and interactives, covering all topics from across the ONS.

Data explorer – Use this to select data for different topics, geographies and time periods.

Nomis – one way in which we share our data.

Local area migration indicator data – This tool provides an indication of migration at a local level.

Census Transformation Programme Research Outputs – These were published in October providing the first set of estimates of the size of the population using administrative data. They are not official statistics but rather they are published here as outputs from our continued research into a different methodology to that currently used in the production of population statistics. Users can keep up to date with developments.

Population Statistics Quarterly Newsletter – Receive all the news and information that has been happening in ONS Population Statistics by signing up to the quarterly newsletter – email population.statistics@ons.gov.uk with the subject title: “Subscribe to ONS Population Statistics Quarterly Newsletter”

Twitter – We have both an @ONS corporate account on twitter covering all topics across the office and the @PaulVickers_ONS account to tweet about population statistics. Follow Paul’s account to get the most up-to-date information on population statistics.

Contact information

Please use the following emails to get in contact and we will make sure it reaches the correct team.
Population Projections: projections@ons.gov.uk
Internal and international migration: migstatsunit@ons.gov.uk
Population Estimates: pop.info@ons.gov.uk
Analysis on Families and households and population estimates by marital status: Families@ons.gov.uk
Analysis on fertility: Fertility@ons.gov.uk
Analysis on life expectancy and life tables: lifetables@ons.gov.uk
Analysis on ageing and population estimates of the very old: ageing@ons.gov.uk
Longitudinal Study: LongitudinalStudy@ons.gov.uk

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