Population estimates for England and Wales: mid-2023

• The population of England and Wales continues to grow; although increasing at a similar rate to the previous 12 months, the year to mid-2023 saw the largest annual increase in at least 75 years, growing by almost 610,000 to 60.9 million.

• In the year to mid-2023, we estimate that 1,084,000 people immigrated to England and Wales from outside the UK, while 462,000 emigrated; this makes net international migration to England and Wales 622,000. 

• There were an estimated 598,000 deaths in England and Wales in the year to mid-2023, an increase of 24,000 compared with mid-2022; the number of births in the year to mid-2023 was 598,400, a decrease of 21,900 compared with the year to mid-2022.

• Natural change (the difference between births and deaths) was 400 in the year to mid-2023; this was the lowest figure since the year to mid-1978.

• In the year to mid-2023, there were 13,800 net internal moves out of England and Wales to the rest of the UK.

• Admin-based population estimates (ABPEs) are being released alongside our official mid-year estimates to inform users and seek feedback as part of our transformation of population statistics.

The population of England and Wales at mid-year 2023 was estimated to be 60.9 million (60,854,727). This is an increase of 610,000 (1.0%), the largest annual numerical increase in at least 75 years. The population estimate for England and Wales increased by 1.5 million in the year to mid-1948, 75 years before mid-2023. The very high level of population change in mid-1948 reflected the continued return of armed forces personnel following the end of World War 2, as well as a high number of births. Population estimates that cover the two world wars exclude the large numbers of armed forces serving overseas.

Long-term international immigration for England and Wales in the year to mid-2023 was estimated to be 1,084,000, an increase of 98,000 compared with the year to mid-2022. International emigration was also higher for mid-2023, at 462,000. Net international migration was 622,000 in the year to mid-2023. This was 73,000 higher than for mid-2022.  For analysis of international migration for the whole of the UK to mid-2023, see our Long-term international migration, provisional: year ending December 2023 bulletin.

There was a decrease in the number of births for mid-2023 in England and Wales, compared with mid-2022. The number of births for mid-2023 (598,400) was the lowest since the year to mid-2002. Deaths in the year to mid-2023 were 24,000 higher than for mid-2022, reflecting the continued ageing of the population. Further information on deaths can be found by looking at our User guide to mortality statistics. Natural change (births minus deaths) was estimated to be 400 for England and Wales in the year to mid-2023.

The level of population change was 610,000 in the year to mid-2023, and 585,000 in the year to mid-2022. These levels are a clear contrast to the levels of population change in both the year to mid-2021 and the year to mid-2020, which were affected by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, as shown in Figure 2.

Population by sex

There were 31,019,000 females and 29,836,000 males in the population of England and Wales at mid-2023. In the year to mid-2023, the number of males increased at a slightly faster rate than the number of females (1.1% and 1.0%, respectively). The higher rate of increase for males is largely influenced by net international migration (317,000 for males, 305,000 for females) and births (307,000 for males, 291,000 for females). In the year to mid-2023, there were more male deaths (302,000) than female deaths (296,000), with a natural change increase of 5,300 for males and a decrease of 4,900 for females.

Accuracy of population estimates

Mid-year population estimates are subject to statistical uncertainty related to the measurement of the census base they are taken from, and from the measurement of each component of population change. Statistical uncertainty is lowest immediately following a census, and is greatest immediately before the next census, because error accumulates over time. Statistical measures of uncertainty for the mid-year population estimates will be published later in 2024.

Figure 3 shows there was population growth for both England and Wales in the year to mid-2023. Between mid-2022 and mid-2023, the population of England grew by 1.0% (578,000) and the population of Wales also grew by 1.0% (32,000).

The rate of population growth for England was similar to the rate for mid-2022. The current rate of growth is higher than at any point since 1972 for both countries. We have no separate population estimates for England and Wales before 1972. We estimate the population of England increased by a total of 7.0% (3,772,000) between 2013 and 2023. For Wales, we estimate an increase of 3.0% (93,000) between 2013 and 2023.

In the year to mid-2023, net international migration was 598,000 in England and 24,000 in Wales. Wales is also estimated to have had a net inward internal migration from the rest of the UK of 17,600. England is estimated to have had an outflow of 31,400. Natural change (births minus deaths) increased the population in England by around 9,900, but decreased the population of Wales by 9,500. 

The difference between natural change in England and Wales reflects the different age composition of the populations. The population of Wales is older on average than the population of England. This leads to a slightly higher rate of deaths, and a slightly lower rate of births. The median age for the population in England at mid-2023 was 40.4; in Wales, it was 42.8. The median age of the combined England and Wales population was 40.5 years at mid-2023, marginally lower than 40.6 at mid-2022.

Figure 5 shows how numbers of people within the population can change year-on-year because of variations in cohort size. The age composition of the population is determined by the patterns of births, deaths, and migration in previous years. Notably, the large cohort of people born around 1946 and 1947 are now aged around 76.

Figure 5: Interactive population pyramid, mid-2021 to mid-2023

Notes:

1. Estimates for mid-2022 have been revised to account for updated estimates of international migration for England and Wales.

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In the year to mid-2023, the number of people in England and Wales aged 65 years or over increased by 1.4%, the number of those aged 16 to 64 years increased by 1.0%, and the number aged 15 years or under increased by 0.7%. The population of those aged 15 to 19 years increased by 2.9% (101,000) in the year to mid-2023, resulting from both net international migration (63,000) and the relatively high number of births 15 to 19 years ago (see Figure 2). The number of people aged 75 to 79 years has increased by about 110,000 (4.5%) in the year to mid-2023. This reflects those large cohorts born soon after the end of World War 2 who have moved into this age group.

International migration in the year to mid-2023 in England and Wales

In the year to mid-2023, we estimate that 1,084,000 people immigrated to England and Wales from outside the UK, while 462,000 emigrated from England and Wales to countries outside of the UK. This makes net international migration into England and Wales 622,000 for the year to mid-2023.

In the year to mid-2023, net international migration was a component of population growth for both England and Wales. For England, net international migration was estimated to be 598,000 in the year to mid-2023. In Wales, the estimate was 24,000.

Internal migration in the year to mid-2023 in England and Wales

In the year to mid-2023, around 13,900 more people left England and Wales for elsewhere in the UK than moved in. This is the largest net outflow through internal migration for England and Wales overall since the year to mid-2005. There was a net internal migration outflow of 31,400 for England, and inflow of 17,600 for Wales, in the year to mid-2023. Internal migration from the rest of the UK has increased the population in Wales in every year since mid-2016. This contrasts with England, which generally has net outflows to the rest of the UK.

Natural change in the population of England and Wales 

In mid-2023, natural change (the difference between the number of births and the number of deaths) was 400 for England and Wales (Figure 3). This is a decrease on the previous year, and is caused by the decrease in the number of births and increase in the number of deaths. The level of natural change for England and Wales is the lowest since the year to mid-1978 (negative 8,300).

For England, the contribution of natural change to overall population growth was 9,900. In Wales, the number of deaths exceeded the number of births, leading to a 9,500 decrease through natural change.

Figure 6 shows the annual population growth in Wales and the English regions. The South West and London had the lowest growth in the year to mid-2023 at 0.8% and 0.9%, respectively. The remaining areas all showed similar growth of between 1.0% and 1.1%.

The population size of all areas increased in both the previous two years. The rate of population growth in mid-2023 increased in Wales, the East of England, London, West Midlands, and East Midlands, relative to the rate of growth in mid-2022. The rate of population growth decreased in the North East, North West, and South West.

Figure 7 shows the population growth rate for regions in mid-2023 and the components that drive the change. For most regions, the rate of population change in the year to mid-2023 is mainly determined by net international migration. London had the highest rate of population change because of international migration, but this was offset by high levels of net outward internal migration.

Most regions had negative natural change (fewer births than deaths), reflecting the long-term trend in lower fertility and the age structure of the population. The exceptions were London, and to a lesser extent the West Midlands, where natural change contributed to a population increase. All other regions of England and Wales had negative natural change.

The interactive chart in Figure 8 shows the overall change in population from mid-2022 to mid-2023 for each local authority in England and Wales. In this period, we estimate the population grew in 305 of the 318 local authorities.

Figure 8: Population change in local authorities of England and Wales, mid-2021 to mid-2022 and mid-2022 to mid-2023

Notes:

1. City of London (population change of 17.5% between 2022 and 2023) has been omitted from this chart.

2. Estimates for mid-2022 have been revised to account for updated estimates of international migration for England and Wales.

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Areas with the highest rates of population growth from mid-2022 to mid-2023 were City of London (17.5%), Cardiff (3.4%), and Preston (3.0%).  

One feature many of the fastest growing local authorities in the year to mid-2023 have in common is the large increase in the number of people aged 20 to 29 years. The only local authorities with a decrease of over 1% in the year to mid-2023 were Rutland and Isles of Scilly.

International migration by local authority

There were high levels of international migration across England and Wales. These include Middlesbrough, where net international migration for the year to mid-2023 was estimated to be 4.6% of the 2022 population, as well as Coventry (4.4%), Newham (4.0%), and Leicester (3.6%).  All but two local authorities, South Holland and Isles of Scilly, had a higher number of international immigrants than emigrants in the year to mid-2023.

Internal migration by local authority

As in previous years, internal migration in mid-2023 tended to decrease the populations of local authorities with higher education institutions, like London and other large cities, and to increase the population of rural and coastal areas. For more information on typical patterns of internal migration at the local authority level, see our previous Population estimates for the UK, England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland bulletins. 

Deaths by local authority

There was a higher number of deaths in the year to mid-2023 in 262 of the 318 local authorities across England and Wales, compared with the year to mid-2022. However, the change in deaths was not evenly distributed. The East of England had a 6.4% annual increase and London had the lowest increase of 2.9%. The largest increases in deaths in local authorities were in Rutland (21.7%) and North Devon (17.9%). For more information, see our Deaths registered monthly in England and Wales dataset.

The pattern of deaths across local authorities reflects the age structure of the population. Coastal and less urban locations with older populations, like Tendring, East Lindsey, North Norfolk and Rother, had relatively more deaths than areas in cities and more urban areas with younger populations, like City of London, Tower Hamlets and Newham.  

Births by local authority

There was a decrease in the number of births in 275 of the 318 local authorities in England and Wales compared with the previous year. The local authority with the greatest decrease (excluding City of London and Isles of Scilly) was Brentwood, which had a 15.1% decrease in births, compared with mid-2022. For more information on birth trends, see our Births in England and Wales: summary tables and Vital statistics in the UK: births, deaths and marriages dataset. 

Natural change by local authority

In the year to mid-2023, it is estimated that 58% of local authorities had a higher number of deaths than births (negative natural change). The number of local authorities with negative natural change has increased over recent years. This reflects the effects of decreasing fertility rates and an ageing population. Just 26% of local authorities had more deaths than births 10 years ago, in the year to mid-2013. For access to detailed information on population change for local authority areas, regions, and countries within England and Wales, see our Analysis of population estimates tool for UK.

We aim for admin-based population estimates (APBEs) to become the official mid-year population estimates in 2025. We will gather feedback from users, including local authorities on the new approach in autumn 2024, so we can draw on local insight as we improve the estimates. This user feedback will form part of the criteria to support the decision on when the ABPEs will become the official mid-year population estimates. We will publish these criteria later in the year. We have also requested an assessment of our ABPEs, as described in the National Statistician's letter to the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR). We are working to meet the standards expected of accredited official statistics by summer 2025.

Our ABPEs are produced using methods that build on the cohort component method, as explained in our Population estimates for England and Wales, mid-2022: methods guide. This method has been used to produce our accredited official population estimates for many years. Our admin-based approach includes statistical modelling to take account of underlying demographic trends and allow for differing levels of coverage and uncertainty associated with input data. This model-based approach supports the use of an increasing range of data sources, enabling our ambition to maximise and optimise the use of administrative data and to produce more timely estimates.  

Differences between the methods and the data sources used mean we do not expect ABPEs to exactly match our accredited official population estimates. The ABPEs use innovative new methods and a wider range of data sources, accounting for quality limitations in the data. Population stocks are produced independently for each year, so any error in one year is less likely to be included in the next. Stocks can use admin data sources, so our methods are less reliant on census data. We plan to publish case studies in autumn 2024 to help users understand differences in estimates and to build confidence in the new approach.

Our updated mid-2023 ABPEs include additional data that have become available since we published our provisional ABPEs: local authorities in England and Wales, mid-2021 to mid-2023 article in December 2023. Provisional estimates make use of incomplete data, alongside some assumptions about migration.

For mid-2023, updated ABPEs are very similar to our accredited official population estimates. The total ABPE for England and Wales is 0.2% lower than the mid-year estimate and is 0.1% lower than the provisional ABPE.

Figure 9 shows that differences between the ABPEs and official mid-year population estimates (MYEs) vary by local authority, single year of age, and sex. Mid-2023 ABPEs were greater than MYEs in just under half (47.8%) of all local authorities (152 out of 318). 

Among local authorities where the ABPE was greater than the official MYE, the percentage difference in mid-2023 was greatest for Barking and Dagenham (ABPE 1.3% higher), Canterbury (ABPE 1.2% higher), and Rutland (ABPE 1.1% higher). In mid-2022, these areas also had some of the greatest percentage differences, after City of London (ABPE 0.7% higher). However, in mid-2021 the ABPE was lower than the MYE for Barking and Dagenham and Canterbury. City of London has a very small population which can often lead to outlying results.

Among the local authorities where the mid-2023 ABPE was lower than the official MYE, the percentage difference was most notable in Exeter (ABPE 2.8% lower), Kensington and Chelsea (ABPE 2.7% lower), and Westminster (ABPE 2.4% lower). These areas also had the greatest percentage differences between the ABPEs and MYEs in mid-2021 and mid-2022, except for Exeter in mid-2021, which ranked 71 out of 184 areas where the ABPE was lower than the MYE.

The uncertainty around the ABPEs is illustrated by credible intervals. These provide the range in which the true value of each population estimate is likely to be contained. Credible intervals for the ABPEs by local authority, single year of age, and sex, as well as local authority totals, are provided in our Admin-based population estimates for local authorities in England and Wales dataset. For mid-2023, ABPE credible intervals for the total local authority population contain the accredited official population estimates for all local authorities.

Figure 9: At the local authority level, differences between ABPEs and accredited official population statistics vary by age and sex

Admin-based population estimates (ABPEs) and accredited official population estimates by age and sex, mid-2021 to mid-2023, local authorities in England and Wales

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More information on our ABPEs is available in our article Understanding mid-year admin-based population estimates for local authorities in England and Wales. Our Dynamic population model, improvements to data sources and methodology: local authorities in England and Wales, mid-2011 to mid-2023 article sets out the details of the developments in data sources. Further information on our ABPEs relating to quality assurance, their appropriate usage, and strengths and limitations, is available in our Mid-year admin-based population estimates in England and Wales Quality and Methodology Information report.

Revised UK population estimates for 2012 to 2022

A full UK revised series has been published alongside this bulletin in our Estimates of the population for the UK, England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland dataset. This is because Scotland has now undertaken rebasing to revise its annual mid-year population estimates for 2012 to 2021, using Scotland's Census 2022.

A revised back series of population estimates for 2012 to 2021 was previously released in November 2023 for England, Wales and Northern Ireland. These estimates were based on Census 2021.

UK population estimates for 2023

We plan to release a full set of UK population estimates for mid-2023 in autumn 2024. These will include estimates for Northern Ireland, produced by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA), and estimates for Scotland, produced by National Records of Scotland (NRS). 

Population estimates by output areas, electoral, health and other geographies

We will publish mid-2023 population estimates below local authority level for England and Wales, in October or November 2024. Alongside this, we will also publish a revised back series of estimates for 2011 to 2020, consistent with the 2021 Census and based on 2021 census geographies. As part of these releases, we will update our mid-2022 population estimates by output areas, electoral, health and other geographies, to be consistent with revisions to mid-2022 local authority estimates. We are exploring possible approaches for producing admin-based population estimates (ABPEs) for geographical breakdowns below local authority level. These possible approaches are explored in our Small Area Population Estimates in the transformed population estimation system: methods development methodology.

Admin-based population estimates

Admin-based population estimates (ABPEs) are produced by bringing together a range of admin and other data sources, and applying statistical modelling techniques. The statistical model is called the Dynamic Population Model (DPM), which uses available information on the usual resident population (stocks), and movement into and out of the population (flows), at specific points in time. These are official statistics in development.

Components of change

Components of change are the factors that contribute to population change. This includes births and deaths (commonly referred to as natural change) and net migration. Migration includes movements of people between England and Wales and the various countries of the world (international migration) and between local authority areas within the UK (internal migration). 

Internal migration

Internal migration describes moves made between local authorities, regions, or countries within the UK. Unlike international migration, there is no internationally agreed definition. 

Median age

Median age is the age that divides a population into two numerically equal groups (that is, half the people are younger than this age and half are older). 

Mid-year population estimates

Mid-year population estimates use the cohort component method. This is a standard demographic method that estimates the size of the population using the components of population change, like the census estimate, to update a population base. These are accredited official statistics.

Net flow

Net flow is the inflow minus the outflow. Positive net flows (greater than zero) indicate the inflow is larger than the outflow - a net inflow. Negative net flows (less than zero) indicate the outflow is bigger than the inflow - a net outflow. 

Usually resident population

These data estimate the "usually resident population". This is the standard United Nations definition. It includes only people who reside in a country for 12 months or more, making them usually resident in that country. Visitors and short-term migrants are excluded.

Quality

We produce the mid-year estimates for England and Wales. Estimates are produced by updating a census base using a standard demographic method, known as the cohort component method. They cover the usually resident population.

The previous year's resident population, by single year of age, is aged by one year. Then flows are applied to cover births, deaths, immigration, emigration, and people entering and leaving "special populations", like people in prisons or the armed forces. Revisions to mid-2022 estimates have been made as part of this bulletin to include updated disaggregation of international migration. Further details can be found in our Mid-year population estimates Quality and Methodology Information (QMI) report.

For detailed information on the methods and data sources used, see our Population estimates for England and Wales, mid-2023: methods guide and our Consistency of methods used for population statistics across UK countries article (PDF, 754.1KB).

For further information on how the estimates were created, quality assurance, their appropriate usage, and strengths and limitations, see our Mid-year population estimates QMI.

We also provide quality indicators in our Population estimates: quality information dataset, which show the percentage of a local authority population that consists of difficult-to-estimate population groups. Later in summer 2024, we will provide a set of uncertainty measures that reflect the statistical uncertainty relating to the estimation of the Census 2021 base, and internal and international migration.

Strengths

• The estimates form the official population estimates of the UK, providing timely data between censuses. 
• Information from administrative registers, like the numbers of births and deaths, is very reliable. 
• Estimates include data on moves between local authorities, and between countries of the UK (internal migration). 
• Estimates are coherent with the latest available estimates of international migration based on administrative data. 
• These estimates will form the basis of coherent small-area population estimates and official population projections to be released later in 2024. 

Limitations

• The data are not counts; they are estimates created by combining many different data sources. 
• The data sources used are the best available on a nationally consistent basis, down to local authority level, but the estimates are subject to the coverage and error associated with these sources. 
• Errors can accumulate over time; population estimates for the years immediately following a census year tend to be more accurate than those immediately prior to a census year. 
• International migration methods and data sources are still being developed and lead to regular revisions to population estimates. 
• This bulletin does not cover the population of the UK; a comprehensive release of mid-2023 estimates for the whole UK is planned for autumn 2024. 
• This bulletin includes a revision to mid-2022 population estimates for England and Wales, but the estimates by output areas, electoral, health and other geographies for mid-2022 will not be revised until autumn 2024.

Accredited official statistics status for population estimates

These accredited official statistics were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in November 2020. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled "accredited official statistics".