Short Term International Migration Annual Report Year Ending: Mid 2012 Estimates

• Short-term international emigration was higher than short-term international immigration in mid-2012: 225,000 visits were made to England and Wales for 3-12 months, compared to 351,000 visits away from England and Wales for 3-12 months

• 8 out of every 10 short-term international visits for 3-12 months made by England and Wales residents away from the UK in mid-2012 were for ‘other’ reasons, such as holidays and travelling and visiting family

• Short-term international emigration for 3-12 months by England and Wales residents aged 65 and over was 66,000 in mid-2012, a statistically significant increase from 39,000 the previous year and the highest estimate since mid-2008

• France and India were the most common countries visited by England and Wales residents for 3-12 months in mid-2012

• 4 out of every 10 short-term international visits to England and Wales for 3-12 months were for ‘other’ reasons, such as holidays and visiting family, with a further 3 in 10 visits made to study (63,000 visits)

• 2 out of every 10 short-term international visits to England and Wales for 3-12 months were for employment in mid-2012 (47,000 visits), with a further 1 in 10 (22,000 visits) made on business for an overseas employer

• India and Poland were the most common countries of residence for short-term migrants visiting England and Wales for 3-12 months

• 202,000 short-term (less than 1 year) visas were issued in 2013 (work, study and student visitor categories); this figure has gradually increased from 139,000 in 2009. The majority of short-term visas in 2013 were issued to nationals of Asian countries (107,000)

• Local authorities in London had the highest estimates of short-term international immigration for both employment and study in mid-2012

Welcome to the Short-Term International Migration Annual Report (STIMAR). A short-term migrant is someone who visits a country other than that of his or her usual residence for a period of less than one year, as opposed to a long-term migrant, who changes their country of usual residence for a year or more. This statistical bulletin contains:

• estimates of short-term international migration to and from the UK for England and Wales (latest provisional data is for the year ending mid-2012)

• estimates of short-term international immigration from outside the UK to local authorities in England and Wales (latest provisional data is for the year ending mid-2012)

• Home Office data on the number of short-term entry clearance visas issued (latest data is for the year ending December 2013)

Short-term international migration statistics have been developed in response to users’ requirements for more information on population and migration, and on the characteristics of migrants. Local authorities are among the major users of short-term immigration statistics. They use estimates for planning and monitoring service delivery, resource allocation and managing budgets. Short-term international immigration estimates provide additional information about the migrant population that is present in England and Wales for less than a year and therefore does not appear in the ONS mid- year population estimates, as they are not considered usual residents.

For further information about how these statistics are used and their fitness for purpose, please refer to the Quality and Methodology Information for Short-Term International Migration Estimates for England and Wales (308.7 Kb Pdf) and the Quality and Methodology Information for Short-term International Migration Estimates for Local Authorities (229.2 Kb Pdf).

Short-term international migration estimates for England and Wales have been released annually since 2007 and were initially developed as part of the Migration Statistics Improvement Programme. Short-term international immigration estimates for local authorities were first released as experimental statistics in February 2012.

The statistics presented in this bulletin were designated as National Statistics following assessment by the UK Statistics Authority in May 2013. For more information please refer to the Authority’s report Assessment of compliance with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics on Short-term International Immigration for England and Wales.

The remainder of the STIMAR is structured as follows.

• Section 1 analyses what the latest figures show about short-term international migration over time

• Section 2 shows how many short-term migrants are in or away from the UK at any one time

• Section 3 examines trends in short-term international migration for work

• Section 4 looks at short-term international migration for study

• Section 5 analyses short-term international migration for other reasons

• Section 6 analyses short-term international migration estimates by citizenship and country of residence

• Annex A: Definition of short-term international migration outlines the different definitions of short-term international migration used in this bulletin

• The glossary provides definitions of terms used in the STIMAR

• Useful links provides a list of other relevant publications

We would welcome your feedback on this bulletin; please email your comments to migstatsunit@ons.gov.uk.

The majority of the STIMAR refers to short-term international migration for 3-12 months, as these people are less likely to be visiting for holidays and perhaps more likely to use public services than those staying for only one or two months. However, to provide a wider context and demonstrate the differences between the different definitions of short-term international migration, this section shows estimates for both 1-12 months and 3-12 months, in the context of trends since mid-2004 (the earliest data available).

There is evidence to suggest that long-term international migration was underestimated between 2004 and 2008, due to an inadequate sampling design and coverage of the IPS which meant that a substantial amount of immigration, particularly of EU8 citizens, was missed during these years, prior to IPS improvements from 2009. This inadequate coverage of some routes will also have caused some short-term migrants to be missed. However, due to a lack of comparative data sources, it is not possible to quantify the scale of the difference. For more information, please refer to the Quality of Long-Term International Migration estimates from 2001 to 2011 - Full Report (1.04 Mb Pdf).

Figure 1.1 shows that under both definitions of short-term international migration, there are more short-term emigration visits by usual residents of England and Wales to other countries than there are visits to England and Wales by usual residents of other countries in each year for which estimates are available. There are also considerably higher short-term international migration flows for periods of 1-12 months than there are for 3-12 months. This is largely due to the 1-12 months definition capturing more visits made for holidays and to visit family and friends.

Short-term immigration to the UK

There were an estimated 1,019,000 short-term international visits to England and Wales for 1-12 months in mid-2012; compared with 1,098,000 the previous year. There was a gradual decrease in short-term immigration to England and Wales for 1-12 months from a peak of 1,437,000 visits in mid-2006 to 996,000 in mid-2010, since which time short-term immigration for 1-12 months has remained broadly steady.

Short-term immigration for 3-12 months was an estimated 225,000 in mid-2012, compared with 236,000 in mid-2011. Similarly to short-term international migration for 1-12 months, there was a gradual decrease in short-term international migration for 3-12 months, from 374,000 in mid-2006 to 213,000 in mid-2010.

Short-term emigration from the UK

In mid-2012, there were an estimated 2,362,000 short-term visits by England and Wales residents away from the UK for 1-12 months, a statistically significant decrease from 2,539,000 in mid-2011. This decrease continues a broadly downward trend in short-term emigration for 1-12 months, from a peak of 2,779,000 visits in mid-2008.

There were an estimated 351,000 visits away from the UK by England and Wales residents for 3-12 months in mid-2012, compared with 366,000 visits in mid-2011. There was a slight (but not statistically significant) decrease in short-term international emigration for 3-12 months between mid-2008 and mid-2009, since which time the figures have remained broadly similar.

Short-term immigration and emigration by age and sex

Of short-term international visits to England and Wales for 3-12 months in mid-2012, 54% (121,000) were made by females and 46% (103,000) by males. The overall distribution of males and females making short-term international visits to England and Wales has remained broadly even since mid-2004. Regarding short-term emigration, in mid-2012 55% (192,000) of all short-term visits away from the UK by England and Wales residents for 3-12 months were made by males and 44% (156,000) by females. Again, these proportions have remained broadly similar since mid-2004.

Figure 1.2 shows that 16-24 was the most common age for both short-term immigration and emigration in mid-2012. In this mid-year, just over 1 in 3 (88,000) short-term international visits to England and Wales were made by 16-24 year-olds and this has been the most common age group for short-term immigration in each year since mid-2004. The next most common age for short-term immigration is 25-34; in mid-2012, 70,000 visits of 3-12 months were made by people of this age to England and Wales, similar to 67,000 in the previous year.

The age of short-term emigrants leaving England and Wales is more varied than the age of short-term immigrants visiting England and Wales. While visits by those aged 16-34 accounted for just under half (169,000) of all short-term international visits away from England and Wales for 3-12 months in mid-2012, there was also a statistically significant increase in short-term international visits by those aged 65 and over, to 66,000 in mid-2012, from 39,000 the previous year. 66,000 is the highest estimate of short-term emigration for those aged 65 and over since mid-2008. The relatively high level of short-term emigration amongst those aged 65 and over in mid-2012 could be attributed to people choosing to spend short periods of their retirement abroad. Further analysis of the data show that of the 66,000 international visits made by England and Wales residents aged 65 and over in mid-2012, 53% (35,000) were made for ‘holiday or pleasure’ and a further 42% (28,000) made to visit family.

How do short-term international migration estimates for 1-12 months and 3-12 months differ?

The remainder of this report focuses on short-term international migration estimates that use the 3-12 months (all reasons) definition. The 1-12 month definition of short-term international migration features a large number of those visiting for ‘other reasons’, particularly for those leaving England and Wales, who tend to be British. The 1-12 month visits are more likely to be for recreation or visiting friends and relatives. Students and workers make up a higher proportion of short-term migrants visiting for periods of 3-12 months. This group are more likely to use resources and services in their destination country than those visiting for 1-12 months. Therefore, the remainder of the STIMAR concentrates mostly on short-term international migration for 3-12 months.

Short-term international migration estimates can also be used to estimate the impact of short-term international migration on the overall population. For example, if four migrants each stayed in England and Wales for three months, this would be the equivalent of one person staying for one year, and so the ‘stock’ count would be 1. Likewise two migrants staying for six months would give the equivalent of one person staying for one year. In the second example the number of arrivals is half that of the first example, but results in the same stock estimate. Stocks are calculated from the number of stays and the length of stay, so an increase in either can lead to an increase in stocks. Stocks give an average number of migrants in the country on an average day. For more information about how short-term international migration stocks are calculated, please refer to the Short-term international migration methodology - national estimates (218.1 Kb Pdf). Stock estimates are referred to as 'in-stock', that is, those coming into England and Wales, and ‘out-stock’, those who have left England and Wales.

Figure 2.1 shows that throughout mid-2004 to mid-2012, the out-stock of short-term migrants has been higher than the in-stock. On an average day in mid-2012 (that is, the period 1 July 2011 to 30 June 2012), there would have been approximately 10 short-term migrants in England and Wales from outside the UK, for every 15 usual residents of England and Wales living abroad for 3-12 months. An estimate of net short-term international migration based on flows data is not appropriate (for more information, please refer to Annex A: Definition of short-term international migration), but these stocks estimates do show that the effect of short-term international migration on the resident population in any one year is negative.

Both short-term migrant in-stocks and out-stocks for 3-12 months in mid-2012 are similar to the previous year. The in-stock of short-term migrants for 3-12 months in mid-2012 was 94,000, similar to 97,000 the previous year, but lower than a peak of 149,000 in mid-2006. This reflects the trend for short-term immigration flows, with most of the decrease taking place between mid-2006 and mid-2010. With regards to out-stocks, there were an estimated 136,000 short-term emigrants away from England and Wales at any one time during mid-2012, compared with 147,000 the previous year. The out-stock of short-term emigrants away from England and Wales peaked in mid-2007 at 181,000 and has since gradually decreased overall. The estimate of 136,000 in mid-2012 is the lowest recorded estimate of migrant out-stock since mid-2004, the earliest year for which estimates are available.

This section explores patterns of short-term international migration for 3-12 months for employment (including those looking for a job). There are two definitions of 'employment' to consider:

• employment as defined by the UN (henceforth referred to as Employment) refers to the UN definition of employment, which includes migrants going to a definite new job, including au pair work, and those seeking a job, but excludes those visiting on business for their existing employer

• other Employment (henceforth referred to as Business) refers to migrants visiting on business for their existing employer and for self-employment

Short-term international immigration for employment and business accounted for 31% of all short-term international visits to England and Wales in mid-2012. Since mid-2004, approximately 3 in 10 short-term international visits to England and Wales from outside the UK for 3-12 months each year have been for employment or business reasons.

In contrast, employment and business accounted for 13% of all short-term international visits away from England and Wales in mid-2012, likely due to the larger number of international visits made away from England and Wales for ‘other’ reasons, not related to work. This proportion has remained broadly similar since mid-2004.

Figure 3.1 shows that in mid-2012, 47,000 international visits were made to England and Wales for 3-12 months for employment, compared with 34,000 in mid-2011. However, there has been a steady and statistically significant decrease in short-term immigration for employment over the years since mid-2006, when the estimate peaked at 108,000. Short-term immigration for business was 22,000 in mid-2012 and has remained broadly similar since mid-2008, following a slight (but not statistically significant) decrease between mid-2008 and mid-2009. Comparisons of citizenship and short-term immigration for employment show that of visits to England and Wales for employment in mid-2012, 83% (39,000) were made by EU citizens. For non EU-citizens, short-term immigration for business was more common, with 2 in 3 (14,000) visits made for business in mid-2012.

Figure 3.1 also shows that the number of short-term international visits made by non-UK residents to England and Wales for employment is consistently higher than short-term international visits overseas for employment made by usual residents of England and Wales. With regards to short-term international emigration, there was no statistically significant difference between the number of international visits away from England and Wales for employment (27,000 visits) and business (20,000 visits) in mid-2012. The majority (89%) of international visits away from England and Wales for 3-12 months for employment and business were made by British citizens.

Analysis of short-term international migration by sex shows that in mid-2012, males accounted for more short-term migration for work than females, but that the proportions varied across short-term immigration and emigration and employment and business. With regards to short-term immigration to England and Wales, a greater proportion of international visits for employment to England and Wales were made by males than international visits for business, while for short-term emigration from England and Wales, a greater proportion of international visits for business were made by males than international visits for employment.

The majority of short-term international visits for employment and business are made by those aged between 16 and 34. In mid-2012, 48% (23,000) of all short-term international visits for employment were made by those aged 16-24, with a further 41% (19,000) aged 25-34. Those making short-term international visits to England and Wales for business were slightly older, with 51% (11,000) aged 25-44 and 28% (6,000) aged 16-24. With regards to short-term emigration from England and Wales, 7 in 10 short term international visits for both employment and business were made by those aged between 16 and 34.

Short-term visas for work

Home Office data on the number of entry clearance visas issued shows that of the 155,000 work visas issued in 2013, 62,000 were short-term (less than 1 year). Of the short-term work visas, 12% were for less than 3 months, 41% for between 3 and 6 months and a further 46% were for from 6 months to less than a year. Work and study visas are mainly issued under the different tiers of the Points Based System (PBS).

The latest figures show that from 2012 to 2013, there was a 9% (5,000) increase in short-term work visas issued, from 57,000 to 62,000. Trends over time show that after broadly falling from 2006, the number of short-term work visas issued increased by 80% from 34,000 in 2009 to 62,000 in 2013.

For more detailed information about how trends in visas for work compare to visas for study, please see section 4, Short-Term International Migration for Study.

Short-term international immigration for employment by local authority

Using a range of administrative data sources, it is possible to estimate the number of short-term international visits made to each local authority in England and Wales for employment reasons for 3-12 months. For more information about how local authority estimates are calculated, please refer to the Short-term international migration methodology - local authority estimates (167.1 Kb Pdf).

Short-term international immigration visits for work, by local or unitary authority, mid-2012

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In mid-2012, there were 47,000 short-term international visits to England and Wales from outside the UK for 3-12 months for employment, compared with 34,000 the previous year. Map 1 shows that the highest estimates of short-term international visits made for employment were for London and the East of England. In mid-2012, one in three (16,968) short-term international visits for employment for 3-12 months were to London boroughs, with a further 11% (4,918) to the East of England. The North East (1%, 634) and Wales (2%, 946) had the lowest estimates of short-term migration for employment for 3-12 months. These trends are reflected in Table 3.1, which shows the ten local authorities in England and Wales with the highest estimates of short-term international migration for employment in mid-2012, alongside the estimates for previous mid-years. With the exception of Peterborough and the County of Herefordshire (both areas where seasonal agricultural workers are more likely to be employed), the areas are in London and have all shown increases between mid-2011 and mid-2012.

This section explores patterns of short-term international migration for 3-12 months for study, which includes all formal higher and further education and excludes evening classes and informal tuition. Of the 225,000 short-term international visits to England and Wales in mid-2012, 28% (63,000) were made for study purposes. By contrast, of visits made by England and Wales residents overseas for 3-12 months in mid-2012, only 3% (10,000) were made for study.

Figure 4.1 shows that in each year for which data are available, considerably more short-term international visits have been made to England and Wales for 3-12 months to study than have been made away from England and Wales to study. In mid-2012, short-term immigration for study was 63,000, similar to 64,000 the previous year. Short-term immigration for study has remained at a similar level since mid-2008, after decreasing from a peak of 82,000 in mid-2006. Short-term emigration for study was 10,000 in mid-2012 and has remained at a broadly similar level since mid-2009.

Comparisons of citizenship and short-term immigration for study show that of those international visits to England and Wales for study in mid-2012, 67% (42,000) were made by citizens of non-EU countries. This proportion has increased from 51% (33,000) in mid-2008, when 65,000 international visits were made to England and Wales for 3-12 months. In mid-2012, 2 in 3 short-term international visits for study were made by females (42,000) and 1 in 3 by males (22,000).

The majority of short-term international migration for study takes place amongst those aged between 16 and 24. In mid-2012, 66% of short-term immigration (39,000 visits) and 69% of short-term emigration (7,000 visits) took place amongst 16-24 year-olds.

Short-term visas for study

There are two kinds of study visa referenced in this report; short-term (less than a year) study visas, which denote those visas issued through the main study visa system, and student visitor visas, which are issued through the separate student visitor scheme. For more information about student visitors, please refer to the glossary.

In 2013, 62,000 regular study short-term visas and 78,000 student visitor visas were issued. Of the 78,000 student visitor visas issued, 83% were issued for up to 6 months and 17% were issued for the extended period of up to 11 months. Work and study visas are issued under the different tiers of the Points Based System (PBS).

Combining the short-term regular study visas and student visitor visas together gives 96,000 visas that were issued for less than 6 months (69%) and 44,000 (31%) for more than 6 months but less than a year.

Figure 4.2 shows trends in short-term visas issued for work, study and student visitor visas for 2005 onwards. There is evidence that recent increases in total visas issued (excluding visit and transit visas) have reflected higher numbers of short-term visas. The short story, Entry Clearance Visas by Length, indicated that the increase from 2012 to 2013 in total visas issued, excluding visit and transit visas, was accounted for by higher numbers of short-term (less than one year) visas.

Of the 219,000 regular study visas issued in 2013, 62,000 were short-term. Of these short-term regular study visas, 10% were for less than 3 months, 41% for between 3 and 6 months and a further 49% were for from 6 months to less than a year. The number of short-term regular study visas issued fell from 68,000 in 2006 to 62,000 in 2008. The number was then higher at 67,000 in 2009 and 65,000 in 2010, reaching a peak of 68,000 in the year ending June 2011. The numbers then fell noticeably to 53,000 in 2012 and have more gradually risen back to 62,000 in 2013. There was a 14% (37,000) increase for student visitor admissions from 262,000 in 2011 to 299,000 in 2012 (the most recent year available), including an increase of 30,000 for USA nationals. This includes large numbers of admissions for non-visa nationals (such as USA and Brazilian nationals) who if studying for less than six months do not require a visa. Of those admitted as student visitors in 2012, nearly half (48%) were from the USA (145,000) with Brazil, Russia and Japan the next largest nationalities (each with 6%, respectively 19,000, 18,000 and 17,000).

Over time, student visitor visas have been generally increasing, apart from a small decrease in 2009. Between 2009 and 2013 the number more than doubled from 38,000 to 78,000.

If students intend to study for less than 6 months they also have the option of applying for a visa under the student visitor scheme (though there are generally more restrictions on student visitors). This will have an influence on the numbers of those applying for short-term regular study visa of less than 6 months duration.

Table 4.1 contains a summary of the most recent short-term work, regular study and student visitor visa numbers as well as student visitor admissions.

Short-term international immigration for study by local authority

Using a range of administrative data sources, it is possible to estimate the number of short-term international visits made to each local authority in England and Wales for study reasons for 3-12 months. For more information about how local authority estimates are calculated, please refer to the Short-term international migration methodology - local authority estimates (167.1 Kb Pdf) .

In mid-2012, 63,000 short-term international visits were made to England and Wales from outside the UK for 3-12 months for study, similar to 64,000 in the previous year. Map 2 shows how these visits were distributed across local and unitary authorities in England and Wales.

Short-term international immigration visits for study, by local or unitary authority, mid-2012

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Map 2 shows that, similarly to employment, the highest estimates of short-term immigration for study are also in London, to which 37% (23,411) of all short-term international visits were made in mid-2012. A further 13% (8,110) of short-term international visits to England and Wales for study were made to local authorities in South East England. Several local authorities home to large universities, such as Oxford (1,576 visits), Cambridge (1,612 visits) and Nottingham (1,546 visits), also had high estimates of short-term immigration for study, compared to elsewhere in England and Wales. Table 4.2 shows the ten local authorities in England and Wales with the highest estimates of short-term international immigration for study in mid-2012, alongside the estimates for previous mid-years. Three of the areas are London boroughs and the remainder are cities home to multiple universities and further education providers. Estimates for each have area have shown increases between mid-2011 and mid-2012, although the size of the increases varies between local areas.

'Other' reasons for short-term international migration include all reasons which do not fall under the categories of study or work (either employment as defined by the UN, or business travel). Therefore, other reasons for short-term international migration can include activities such as:

• holidays and travelling

• working holidays and volunteering

• medical treatment

• religious pilgrimage

• visiting family and friends

• accompanying or joining others

As shown in Figure 5.1, other reasons are the most common main reason for short-term international migration both to and from England and Wales. In mid-2012, there were 92,000 short-term international visits to England and Wales for 3-12 months for other reasons, compared with 114,000 in mid-2011. Short-term international immigration for other reasons has remained at a broadly similar level since mid-2007. Of short-term international visits to England and Wales for other reasons in mid-2012, 61% (56,000) were made by non-EU citizens.

With regards to short-term emigration, 293,000 short-term international visits for 3-12 months were made away from England and Wales in mid-2012, compared to 301,000 the previous year. Other reasons accounted for approximately 4 out of every 5 short-term international visits away from England and Wales in mid-2012. 62% of short-term emigration for other reasons in mid-2012 was undertaken by British citizens (181,000 visits) and a further 28% (82,000 visits) by non-EU citizens.

Unlike short-term international migration for employment or study, the age distribution of short-term international migration for other reasons is more even across age groups and less concentrated amongst working-age adults. For example, in mid-2012, approximately 1 in 6 short-term international visits to England and Wales and 1 in 5 short-term international visits away from England and Wales were made by those aged 65 and over.

Citizenship

Provisional short-term international migration estimates for mid-2012 show that overall inflows to England and Wales were 225,000, 8% (17,000) of which were visits by British citizens and 92% (208,000) of which were visits by non-British citizens. Outflows from England and Wales were 351,000, 2 in 3 (232,000) of which were visits by British citizens and 1 in 3 (119,000) of which were visits by non-British citizens. These estimates are statistically at a similar level to those seen in mid-2011. Figure 6.1 shows short-term immigration estimates for different citizenship groups in more detail.

There have not been any statistically significant changes in the estimates of British citizens visiting England and Wales from outside the UK for 3-12 months since mid-2004. In mid-2012 the citizenship group making the largest number of short-term international visits to England and Wales for 3-12 months were non-EU citizens, with 119,000 visits. This compares with 123,000 in mid-2011. Non-EU citizens have accounted for the largest number of international visits to England and Wales for the last 4 years. Between mid-2004, the first year for which a published time series is available, and mid-2008 the citizenship group making the largest number of international visits varied. More specifically, in mid-2012 international visits by non-EU citizens comprised an estimated 59,000 visits by Commonwealth citizens (12,000 Old Commonwealth and 46,000 New Commonwealth) and 60,000 visits by other foreign citizens. There are no statistically significant differences between these figures and those seen in mid-2011. There has however been a statistically significant overall decline in international visits to England and Wales by all non-EU citizens since mid-2004, with the exception of visits by New Commonwealth citizens. There were an estimated 89,000 international visits to England and Wales for 3-12 months by EU citizens in mid-2012. Of these visits, 46% (41,000) were made by EU15 citizens, 40% (36,000) were made by EU8 citizens and 13% (12,000) were made by EU2 citizens. There are no statistically significant differences between these and the previous year’s figures. However, since short-term EU immigration peaked in mid-2006, there has been a decline in international visits by EU citizens to England and Wales, compared to the mid-2004 figures.

As would be expected, British citizens make the largest proportion of international visits away from England and Wales for 3-12 months. In mid-2012, the provisional estimate is 232,000, similar to the mid-2011 estimate of 233,000. Since mid-2004, when an estimated 344,000 British citizens made international visits away from England and Wales for 3-12 months, there has been no statistically significant change in these figures from one year to the next, except between mid-2008 and mid-2009, when the estimate decreased from 325,000 to 255,000.

Country of residence and country visited

In the context of short-term international migration, country of last residence refers to the country from which short-term immigrants to England and Wales have arrived from, whilst country visited refers to the country being visited by usual residents of England and Wales who have become short-term emigrants.

Poland and India have been the two most common countries of residence amongst short-term international immigrants to England and Wales in each year since mid-2004. Estimates of short-term immigration from India have remained broadly similar over this time period, whereas the number of short-term international visits to England and Wales by residents of Poland has shown a statistically significant decrease over time, from a peak of 68,000 in mid-2005 and mid-2006, to 17,000 in mid-2012. The USA, Spain and Pakistan made up the remaining five most common countries of residence in mid-2012.

France was the most commonly visited country by usual residents of England and Wales emigrating for 3-12 months in mid-2012, with 26,000 visits. Between mid-2011 and mid-2012, Australia moved from first to sixth, and France from sixth to first, of the ten most commonly visited countries by short-term emigrants from England and Wales. Although not shown in Figure 6.3 because it was no longer a top five country in mid-2012, there was a statistically significant decrease in the number of visits to Australia by England and Wales residents in mid-2012 to 15,000, from 32,000 in mid-2011.

Short-term visas by nationality

Figure 6.4 shows trends in short-term visas issued for less than 12 months for work and study combined (including student visitors) by world region of nationality, since 2005, excluding a small number of visas that cannot be ascribed to a world area and are categorised as 'Other'.

Total short-term visas issued fell from 159,000 in 2006 to 139,000 in 2009 and have since broadly risen, reaching 202,000 in 2013. Over the period 2006 to 2009 there were notable falls for short-term visas issued to European nationals (-35,000, or -59%). The largest falls were for Russia (falling 17,000), Ukraine (falling 6,000), Bulgaria (falling 4,000) and Romania (falling 3,000). Most of the 35,000 fall was accounted for by 20,000 fewer work-related visas, along with 11,000 fewer regular study visas.

Part of the fall for European nationals was a consequence of Bulgaria and Romania joining the EU at the start of 2007, which meant that their nationals no longer required visas to enter the UK (these two nationalities together had previously recorded 6,000, 500, and 140 work, regular study and short-term student visas respectively in 2006). However, Bulgaria and Romania accounted for only a small part of the fall for European nationals from 2006 to 2009 noted above.

The 63,000 increase in the total short-term visas from 2009 (139,000) to 2013 (202,000), was largely accounted for by an increase of 45,000 for Asian nationals, together with increases of 9,000, 6,000 and 4,000 for European, Middle Eastern and African nationals respectively.

Looking at the change from 2009 to 2013 by reason, this was accounted for by an increase of 27,000 work visas (of which 23,000 was accounted for by Asian nationals), a fall of 5,000 in regular study visas and an increase of 40,000 in student visitor visas (mostly accounted for by increases for Asian, European, Middle East and African nationals of 14,000, 11,000, 8,000 and 4,000 respectively).