Improving long-term international migration statistics, updating our methods and estimates: November 2025

This article summarises our recent work to improve long-term international migration estimates for the UK. It sets out how we have developed our approach to estimating migration, the main changes to methods and data sources, and the impact of these on our historic time series.

We have now stopped using the International Passenger Survey (IPS) for any part of our estimates. The IPS is a survey that we believe had been stretched beyond its original purpose. Estimates of international migration for British nationals are now based on the Department for Work and Pension's (DWP's) Registration and Population Interaction Database (RAPID). This dataset gives excellent coverage of British nationals but requires a range of assumptions to produce estimates and therefore has some uncertainty.

EU citizens have needed permission to live in the UK since January 2021, by either a visa or by status granted through the EU settlement scheme. Our estimates for EU+ nationals are now based on Home Office Borders and Immigration (HOBI) data. This method change brings greater consistency with our non-EU+ estimates, which are based on actual travel patterns. It also enables us to understand more about where people are coming from and their reasons for travel.

We will continue to review and develop our methodologies as data availability, travel patterns and policies continue to evolve.

We have revised our estimates because of these changes and updated data from the Home Office, which included improvements to the data matching process within the HOBI data.

Our updated net migration estimates now have a slightly higher and earlier peak of 944,000 in year ending (YE) March 2023, compared with our previous estimate of 906,000 in YE June 2023. This is followed by a sharper fall. Our latest estimate for YE December 2024 is now 345,000, compared with our provisional estimate of 431,000 published in May 2025. 

Estimates using our new methods show different patterns for EU+ and British national migration, compared with what we had previously published.

Main findings 

• These changes have had an impact on our overall long-term international net migration estimates from YE December 2021 to YE December 2024. 

• Our revised net migration estimate has cumulatively decreased by around 97,000 over the four-year period, by an average of around 25,000 a year, and follows a similar trend to our previously published estimates. Our revised immigration estimate has increased cumulatively by 316,000 over the four years, while emigration has increased by 413,000.

• Our new methods cause an upward revision in our British nationals emigration estimate over the past few years; overall this means net migration for British nationals has been revised down by 344,000 from YE December 2021 to YE December 2024.

• The revised British net migration is now estimated to be negative 114,000 to the YE December 2024, compared with our provisional estimate of negative 17,000 previously published; this is mainly because of emigration being revised upwards from 77,000 to 257,000 using our new methods.  

• Our revised estimate of EU+ net migration over the period is higher than our previous estimate, with the biggest difference in 2021 to 2022, where we now see fewer EU+ nationals emigrating, when using visa and travel data.

• EU+ net migration for YE December 2024 is now revised to negative 69,000, compared with negative 96,000 previously published.

We have been transforming the way we produce migration statistics to make greater use of administrative data. We are now using administrative data that shows the actual behaviours and activity of individuals, compared with their intentions, as we did previously when using data from the International Passenger Survey (IPS).

We no longer use the IPS as the main source of data for any of our estimates. This also means we no longer rely on a small sample of people travelling in and out of the UK. Instead, we are using data with good coverage of visa, travel or activity information for those crossing the border or living within the UK.

We define a long-term international migrant (applying the United Nations definition) as someone who changes their country of usual residence for 12 months or more, so that the destination country effectively becomes the country of usual residence.

References to immigration, emigration and net migration in this article refer to long-term migration. Net migration is long-term immigration (people coming to the UK long-term) minus long-term emigration (people leaving the UK long-term).

British national migration estimates

Understanding the long-term international migration patterns of British nationals is challenging because of the high number of British people crossing the border daily. We previously estimated British nationals' migration using the IPS. However, we have long acknowledged the IPS has been stretched beyond its original purpose. We have developed new methods that no longer rely on the survey's data.

The migration of British nationals is one of the most difficult elements to estimate in our long-term international migration work. This is mainly because British nationals are not subject to immigration controls, so they have limited interactions with the Home Office's systems.  

British nationals' estimates are now produced using data from the Department for Work and Pension's (DWP's) Registration and Population Interaction Database (RAPID). RAPID data cover everyone with a National Insurance number (NINo). We create a time series that we can use to infer the residency status of individuals. We look at RAPID data over time to determine the most likely residency status for individuals. This is done by looking at interactions systems that are included in the RAPID data from:

• DWP

• HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC)

• local authority systems

Changes in residency status indicate immigration and emigration. We adjust for individuals that may not interact with the systems that make up RAPID but remain resident within the UK. The assumptions and adjustments we rely on to produce the estimates mean there are limitations to this method. This is because we cannot see actual travel patterns of migrants, like we can with other nationality groups. We are continuing our research to further develop our approach.

However, the new RAPID method has clear benefits over the previous survey-based approach. It has very good coverage of British nationals. The IPS was sample based and captured very few British nationals in its data collection. This means there was a large amount of uncertainty in IPS estimates.

More information on the latest British nationals' methods can be found in our Implementing new methods for estimating the international migration of British nationals, progress update: November 2025 article.

EU+ migration estimates

EU+ migration was previously estimated using RAPID, based on a person's "activity" through interacting with systems included in the dataset in a tax year. These data provided a good source to infer migration patterns.

However, freedom of movement for EU+ nationals migrating to the UK ended in January 2021. EU+ nationals now require permission to migrate to the UK. This can be granted in the form of a visa, or by acquiring limited or indefinite leave to remain through the EU Settlement Scheme (EUSS) or another form of indefinite leave to remain. This has enabled us to develop an EU+ long-term migration estimation method using Home Office Borders and Immigration (HOBI) data, which are a more direct measure of migration flows.

There are many benefits to the new EU+ method. Moving to HOBI data allow us to more accurately estimate flows of migrants as we can see their travel history. HOBI data also allow us to produce more breakdowns than we could with old methods. We can now look at reason for migration and the nationality of migrants.

More information on the latest EU+ methods can be found in our Implementing new methods for estimating the international migration of EU+ nationals, progress update: November 2025.

Non-EU+ migration estimates

We have already been using HOBI data to estimate non-EU+ migration. Our estimates are derived from a linked database that combines data from Home Office systems to build travel histories that include an individual's travel into or out of the UK and data relating to their immigration status.

While these methods remain unchanged, we have revised our estimates using updated data supplied to us by the Home Office. More information can be found in our Methods to produce provisional long-term international migration estimates methodology.

Our improved methods have been applied retrospectively to previously published data, back to year ending (YE) June 2021. We have revised this back as far as the latest data allow. This has resulted in some revisions to earlier data, which provide an improved picture of migration flows in the past.

Cumulative impact over time

There has been a decrease in net migration of 97,000 from YE December 2021 to YE December 2024, compared with our previous estimates. This revision was caused by the overall impact of the new methods and updated and improved supply of data from Home Office.

The bar chart in Figure 1 shows changes in the number of people immigrating and emigrating for all nationalities (because of the new methods), for British nationals, EU+ nationals, and for non-EU+ nationals (because of the improved data).

British nationals estimates show the largest differences between old and new methodologies, despite this being the smallest nationality group. However, this is expected, given our long-standing concerns about the International Passenger Survey (IPS) undercounting this population. Our updated estimates of British nationals' immigration increased by 306,000 and emigration estimates increased by 650,000. Overall, this means net migration for British nationals has been revised down by 344,000 because of the new methods.

Our revised estimates of EU+ nationals' immigration decreased by 75,000 and emigration estimates decreased substantially by 275,000 over the period, when using the new methods. The new EU+ method uses travel and visa data that are better at identifying migrants and rely on fewer assumptions than the previous method. Overall, this has led to a revised estimate of 200,000 for EU+ net migration over the four-year period.

For non-EU+ nationals, the updated overall net migration estimate increased by 47,000 over the four-year period, compared with our previous estimate. This is because of the immigration increase of 85,000.

In earlier Home Office Borders and Immigration (HOBI) data supplied to us, there were cases where multiple people were matched to one identity and were excluded from the data. Improvements to the data-matching process mean these individuals are now counted separately and have been added into the data.

Emigration has been revised to also increase by 38,000. This difference is more notable in recent YE periods, where emigration has generally started to increase for non-EU+ nationals. We believe these revisions are a result of our methods better estimating the number of people immigrating, as well as our assumptions updating to the change in trend.

Figure 2: Revisions to long-term international migration estimates

Long-term international immigration, emigration and net migration estimates for all nationalities using new methods compared with estimates published in May 2025, year ending (YE) June 2012 to YE December 2024

Notes:

1. “YE” stands for year ending. Please be aware that year ending periods overlap.
2. Numbers have been rounded to the nearest thousand. Most calculations are done on unrounded numbers, so totals may not equal the sum of individual parts. 
3. Long-term international migration estimates for YE June 2021 to YE December 2024 have been revised. Those for the last two year-ending periods are provisional.
4. Comparisons between estimates published before and after June 2021 should be treated with caution because of changes in methodology.

Download the data

The line chart in Figure 2 shows the revised migration estimates for all nationalities using our new methods, compared with estimates previously published in May 2025. The general trend for net migration remains relatively similar. However, these updates mean net migration peaked higher and then fell faster than we previously estimated. 

We now estimate net migration reached a peak of 944,000 in YE March 2023. This is higher than the previous peak, which we estimated to be 906,000 in YE June 2023. Our revised YE December 2024 estimate is now 86,000 less, at 345,000.

Our updated immigration estimates also peak higher and earlier than previously estimated. Immigration now peaks in YE March 2023 at 1,469,000, compared with 1,326,000 in YE December 2023. Using our new methods, we capture more people coming through the UK, especially British nationals and non-EU+ nationals between YE December 2022 and YE December 2023. Our revised YE December 2024 estimate is 67,000 higher, at 1,015,000.

Our new revised estimates consistently estimate emigration to be higher than previously thought. The initial increase and consistently higher emigration from that increase is mainly because of the increase in emigration of British nationals because of the new methods. Our updated YE December 2024 estimate now shows an additional 153,000 emigrating the UK. This means 669,000 in total emigrated.

British nationals' migration

British nationals' migration has been revised and now shows consistently higher levels of immigration and emigration than previously estimated.

Figure 3: Revisions to British nationals long-term international migration estimates

Long-term international immigration, emigration and net migration estimates for British nationals using new methods compared with estimates published in May 2025, year ending (YE) June 2012 to YE December 2024

Notes:

1. "YE” stands for year ending. Please be aware that year ending periods overlap.
2. Numbers have been rounded to the nearest thousand. Most calculations are done on unrounded numbers, so totals may not equal the sum of individual parts. 
3. Long-term international migration estimates for YE June 2021 to YE December 2024 have been revised. Those for the last two year-ending periods are provisional.
4. Estimates for British nationals published before and after June 2021 should not be compared, as the methods used to create them are different.

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The IPS has historically undercounted British nationals immigrating to and emigrating from the UK, as confirmed by our updated back series of British long-term migration discussed in our Estimating UK international migration: 2012 to 2021 article. We can now more accurately estimate migration patterns of this population by adjusting for uncertainty and accounting for the proportion of UK-born and naturalised British nationals. Whatever method is used, estimating British nationals - and particularly their emigration - is challenging. Millions of British people leave the country every year (for example, for holidays or business), and relatively few will be long-term emigrants.

The line chart in Figure 3 shows that every YE period for net migration of British nationals has decreased because of our revised estimates using new methods. The YE December 2024 is now estimated to be negative 114,000, compared with our previously published estimate of negative 17,000. This is because of the higher levels of both immigration and emigration.

There was a substantial increase in estimates in both immigration and emigration of British nationals in YE June 2021, at the point the new methods are implemented. We believe this is a result of:

• the more accurate estimation of British nationals' migration using the Department for Work and Pension's (DWP's) Registration and Population Interaction Database (RAPID) data

• people wanting to travel more because of not being able to during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic

• the closure of the EU Settlement Scheme (EUSS) to applicants in June 2021

British nationals' immigration is consistently revised upwards using new methods across all YE periods. The largest increase is from 62,000 to 176,000 in our revised estimates in YE June 2021. The YE December 2024 figure increased from 60,000 with our old methods to 143,000 with our new methods.

British nationals' emigration shows the most notable differences in Figure 3, with the largest revision from 82,000 in the old method to 283,000 in the new method in YE September 2021. Our YE December 2024 estimate is now 257,000, compared with 77,000 with the old methods.

EU+ migration

EU+ migration shows a more stable decline in net migration using the new methods than the previous estimates published in May 2025.

Figure 4: Revisions to EU+ long-term international migration estimates

Long-term international immigration, emigration and net migration estimates for EU+ using new methods compared with estimates published in May 2025, year ending (YE) June 2012 to YE December 2024

Notes:

1. "YE” stands for year ending. Please be aware that year ending periods overlap.
2. Numbers have been rounded to the nearest thousand. Most calculations are done on unrounded numbers, so totals may not equal the sum of individual parts. 
3. Long-term international migration estimates for YE June 2021 to YE December 2024 have been revised. Those for the last two year-ending periods are provisional.

Download the data

The line chart in Figure 4 shows net migration for EU+ diverges between revised estimates from the old and new methods from YE September 2021 to YE March 2023. The biggest difference is in YE March 2022, from negative 122,000 using the old methods to 28,000 using the new methods. This is mainly because of the changes in our estimates of emigration. EU+ estimates for YE December 2024 have been revised to 27,000 higher than previously estimated but remain negative at negative 69,000.

Our revised EU+ immigration estimates are lower than the previous method in all YE periods, except 2022 when estimates are higher. The greatest change is seen for YE September 2021, where it is now 236,000, compared with the previous estimate of 275,000. This is likely prompted by the large number of Romanians who have EU Settled Status coming to live in the UK between 2021 and 2022. The updated YE December 2024 estimate is now 41,000 less than previously published, at 82,000. The general trend is very similar to the previous RAPID method.

Estimates of emigration for EU+ nationals produced using the new methods are lower than the previous method. Our new provisional estimate for YE December 2025 is 150,000, compared with our previous estimates of 218,000. The largest difference can be seen in YE March 2022, with a difference of 121,000. Emigration is consistently estimated to be lower with the new methods. This has been prompted by departures of Romanian (around 40,000 annually) and Polish (around 25,000 annually) people with EU Settled Status.

We believe that these differences are mainly a result of the new EU+ method using travel and visa data, which are better at identifying migrants and rely on fewer assumptions than the previous method.

Non-EU+ migration

We have not revised our methods for non-EU+ migration estimates. However, in previous Home Office Borders and Immigration (HOBI) data supplied to us, there were cases where multiple people were matched to one identity and were excluded from the data. Improvements to the data-matching process mean these individuals are now counted separately and have been added into the data. This has led to revisions in our non-EU estimates.

Figure 5: Revisions to Non-EU+ long-term international migration estimates

Long-term international immigration, emigration and net migration estimates for Non-EU+ using new methods compared with estimates published in May 2025, year ending (YE) June 2012 to YE December 2024

Notes:

1. “YE” stands for year ending. Please be aware that year ending periods overlap.
2. Numbers have been rounded to the nearest thousand. Most calculations are done on unrounded numbers, so totals may not equal the sum of individual parts. 
3. Long-term international migration estimates for YE June 2021 to YE December 2024 have been revised. Those for the last two year-ending periods are provisional.

Download the data

The line graph in Figure 5 shows overall net migration for non-EU+ nationals differs the most in YE 2023 periods. The biggest revision is for YE March 2023, with net migration increasing from 957,000 to 1,047,000. However, in the most recent periods since YE March 2024, net migration estimates for non-EU+ nationals have been revised downwards.

Our revised immigration estimates for non-EU+ nationalities has increased in the periods from YE December 2022 to YE December 2023. The peak of immigration was previously in YE December 2023, when it was 1,132,000. This peak is now seen in YE September 2023, when it is estimated to be 1,193,000.

The latest revisions in non-EU+ emigration estimates have increased, particularly from YE March 2024 onwards. This is linked to higher levels of immigration than previously estimated during 2023, which led to more emigration than previously published. This is also linked to our assumptions updating to the change in trend of increasing emigration. For example, the YE December 2024 estimate has increased by around 40,000 to 261,000, compared with the previous estimate of 222,000.

There are very small fluctuations in the revisions of non-EU+ estimates in other time periods because methods remain unchanged.

Quality assurance of new methods

We have developed new methods over several years with expert and user input at regular stages. We have collaborated with and gained feedback from experts on the National Statistician's Advisory Panel on Migration Statistics. We have also presented our work at the Methodological Assurance Review Panel (MARP) to ensure our methods are robust and appropriate. This has ensured we have the required level of confidence in these new approaches to implement them for our long-term international migration estimates from November 2025.

Research presented to these experts has drawn on comparison of estimates between sources. We have described these comparisons in our Implementing new methods for estimating the international migration of EU+ nationals, progress update: November 2025 article and our Implementing new methods for estimating the international migration of British nationals, progress update: November 2025 article.

We have also assessed our work against the UK Statistics Authority's pillars of trustworthiness, quality and value as part of our development of these new methods.

British national migration estimates

The migration of British nationals is one of the most difficult elements to estimate in our long-term international migration work. This is mainly because British nationals are not being subject to immigration controls, so they have limited interactions with Home Office systems.

The Department for Work and Pension's (DWP's) Registration and Population Interaction Database (RAPID) contains information on all individuals with a National Insurance Number (NINo). This means most British nationals will appear on it. We believe this is currently the best data source available to us from which we can produce our methods.

We have a good knowledge of RAPID from our previous EU+ methodology. RAPID covers information for more British nationals than the International Passenger Survey (IPS). This is because RAPID covers everyone who pays tax and/or claims benefits, compared with the systematic sample of individuals travelling collected by the IPS. RAPID also shows activity of an individual, rather than intentions, which the IPS does. This allows us to better align to our definition used for long-term international migration by knowing when someone is present in the UK. More granular information is also available in RAPID, including location information, which better allows us to support our subnational migration estimates.

Our methods have been developed in consideration of known gaps in the RAPID data, including people that do not interact with tax or benefits systems (for example, some pensioners, students, and those that do not earn an income). We have developed a series of rules and adjustments to account for these individuals to ensure we do not underestimate their migration events. We also account for British naturalisation with a set of rules for those who become British nationals, which is not shown in RAPID data. Finally, we use a coverage adjustment using additional information from other sources for groups that we know are over- or under-counted in RAPID.

We discuss the adjustments used in our latest British nationals' methods and comparisons between other data sources to ensure the validity of our new methods in our Implementing new methods for estimating the international migration of British nationals, progress update: November 20255 article.

These methods have been developed in collaboration with DWP to ensure they are fit for purpose.

All of our long-term international migration estimates (excluding EU Settlement Scheme and asylum, as these are still being developed) are produced with accompanying uncertainty estimates. These help provide confidence to users that our estimates fall within an expected range.

EU+ migration estimates

EU nationals have required a visa to travel to the UK since the end of the Brexit transition period and the introduction of the new immigration system. This has allowed us to develop a methodology using Home Office Borders and Immigration (HOBI) data. We are also able to identify migration events from this data for those with EU Settled Status.

HOBI data are more aligned with the definition we are trying to measure: the flows of long-term international migrants. RAPID, the data source we previously used, was based more on signals that an individual was present or not within the UK. HOBI data are also timelier and allow for more granular breakdowns, such as reason for migration and nationality, which are not possible using the RAPID data.

The move to using HOBI data to produce EU+ visa migration estimates also means that methods are considerably more aligned with our non-EU+ visa estimates, which allows for harmonised estimates across the two groups. 

The methods used to produce EUSS estimates are based on thresholds for long-term travel patterns in and out of the UK. They consider short-term travel, such as holidays, to more accurately estimate the long-term migration flows of those who have the right to remain. We are confident that this method accurately estimates this group of migrants as it is strongly based on the United Nations definition of a long-term migrant.

We have also worked in consultation with the Home Office to develop our new methods.

We discuss comparisons between other data sources to ensure validity of the new methods in our Implementing new methods for estimating the international migration of EU+ nationals, progress update: November 2025 article.

Non-EU+ migration estimates

To produce timely statistics, we use assumptions where data are not yet complete and replace it with data as they become available. Our net migration estimate for year ending (YE) June 2024 was revised down by 30,000 and for YE December 2024 was revised down by 16,000. Smaller revisions help to confirm that our methods and assumptions are robust and currently provide a good indication of migration flows.

We are not changing the data source for our non-EU+ estimates. However, our research into non-EU+ estimates continues. We are currently researching some of the known gaps in our non-EU+ methodology. These include:

• accurately estimating individuals with 3C leave who are between visas and have no departure date (some of whom may currently be being falsely emigrated)

• developing methods to better estimate those whose first arrival into the UK is on a short-term visa, if they then move onto a long-term visa

• including non-visa nationals who have leave to stay in the UK for six months as standard, who may then meet the definition of a long-term migrant

• understanding those who overstay their visa and what they go on to do next

We continue to assess solutions and work in consultation with the Home Office to develop these methods. This research will go through a range of development and assurance processes before we consider whether to update our methods.

Changes to our methods will have some effects on our mid-year estimates and population projections.

In our 2022-based national population projections, the UK assumed level of long-term net international migration, for June 2024, is 728,000 (principal and all variant projections, including the migration category variant). In our UK mid-year population estimates, the corresponding figure is 739,000. This is now estimated to be 649,000, as a result of our updated long-term international net migration estimates.

Administrative data 

Administrative data are collections of data maintained for administrative reasons, for example, registrations, transactions, or record keeping. They are used for operational purposes, and their statistical use is secondary. These sources are typically managed by other government bodies. 

British national 

For the purposes of our estimates, we assume a British national is anyone who has a National Insurance Number (NINo) and who is not included in the Migrant Worker Scan (MWS).

The MWS contains information on overseas nationals who have registered for, and are allocated, a NINo. UK residents typically receive a NINo through the Juvenile Registration scheme before the age of 16 years if Child Benefit was claimed on their behalf. Adults returning to the UK or not covered by Child Benefit apply through the Adult NINo Allocation service.

If a NINo is allocated, the relevant Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) and HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) systems are updated. These people are included in the Migrant Workers Scan (MWS). A full description of this process is provided in DWP's NINo allocations methodology.  

We also include as British nationals' people on the MWS that have been resident in the UK for many years and are likely to have become British citizens.

Users should note that this definition is statistical and may differ from legal definitions of nationality.

A full definition is available in our Implementing new methods for estimating the international migration of British nationals, progress update: November 2025.

EU and EU+ 

EU is the European Union. It is the sum of EU14, EU8, and EU2, plus Malta, Cyprus and Croatia (from 1 July 2013). These groups are:

• EU14, which includes Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Republic of Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, and Sweden
• EU8, which includes Czechia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia
• EU2, which includes Romania and Bulgaria

EU+ is all current EU countries plus Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Switzerland. 

British nationals are not included in these numbers. 

Long-term international migration 

Long-term international migration (LTIM) statistics estimate the flow of people to and from the UK. This report defines a long-term international migration as "a person who moves to a country other than that of his or her usual residence for a period of at least a year (12 months), so that the country of destination effectively becomes his or her new country of usual residence", which is the United Nations definition of a long-term international migrant. 

Nationality 

Nationality of a country is a legal status that usually gives a person a particular set of rights relating to that country. 

Net migration 

Net migration is the difference between the number of people coming to live in the UK (immigration) and the number of people leaving to live elsewhere (emigration). When more people are coming to the UK than leaving, net migration is above zero and so adds to the UK population.