1. Main points
There were 2.2 million visits to the UK by overseas residents in February 2019 (7% fewer than in February 2018).
Overseas residents spent £1.2 billion on visits to the UK in February 2019 (5% less than in February 2018).
UK residents made 4.1 million visits overseas in February 2019 (1% more than in February 2018).
UK residents spent £2.4 billion on visits overseas in February 2019 (7% less than in February 2018).
2. Things you need to know about this release
The new tablets allow us to improve the quality of the International Passenger Survey (IPS) data collected, so discontinuities (that is, step changes in the time series) arising from the introduction of tablet data collection in the IPS are possible. We have worked with academic experts and the Office for National Statistics (ONS) Methodology team to produce a method for detecting any such discontinuities.
We have continued to monitor the results as more data have become available. Further analysis using a longer series of data is required to determine whether there are any discontinuities, so some caution is still advised in the interpretation of data in this release.
Further methodological changes are planned to the estimates on international visitors in the IPS. These are weighting adjustments to address concerns about the imbalance (that is, large differences in numbers) in the IPS between the estimates of numbers of visitors arriving and departing for some nationalities. The new method has been developed in consultation with users and methodological experts. We plan to implement the new method in October 2019, when the results for the second quarter (Apr to June) of 2019 are published. A revised back series will also be published at this time. More information about the planned changes will be published as soon as possible.
The changes in data collection methods and planned methodological changes were described in the Travel trends 2017: recent data collection changes and planned methodological changes article, in July 2018.
Please note that while the imbalance work is unlikely to affect long-term migrants in the IPS, we have committed to exploring whether the survey processes that cause the imbalance in international visitor estimates also impact on long-term migration further, as part of the ONS Migration Statistics’ workplan to understand different migration data sources.
Estimates contained in this bulletin are produced from responses provided by international passengers arriving in and departing from the UK, sampled on our International Passenger Survey (IPS).
Responses to the survey are scaled up to represent all passengers using information on total international passenger traffic for the reporting period.
Estimates are based on interviews conducted when passengers end their visit. Any visits commencing in the reported month but not completed until later are not included in estimates for the reported month.
The reported spend for visits include any spending associated (excluding fares) with the visit, that occur before, during or after the trip.
Parts of the bulletin refer to countries visited abroad. It should be noted that if a UK resident visited more than one country on a trip abroad, the country recorded as visited in this bulletin is the country that was visited for the longest period.
Estimates are subject to sampling error and confidence intervals are provided to help you interpret the estimates (see Accuracy of IPS estimates for more information). Further guidance is available about the quality of overseas travel and tourism estimates.
Nôl i'r tabl cynnwys3. What are the main trends in visits and spending?
UK residents consistently make more visits abroad than foreign residents make to the UK. The total amount spent by UK residents during visits abroad is also higher than the total spent by foreign residents visiting the UK. The numbers of visits and the amounts spent vary through the year, with more in the summer. This is the case both for UK residents and overseas residents. However, UK residents show a much sharper peak both in visits and spend during the month of August, which is traditionally the only complete month of the UK school summer holidays.
Figure 1: Overseas residents’ visits to the UK and UK residents’ visits abroad are greatest in the summer
Overseas residents' visits to the UK and UK residents' visits abroad by month from February 2016 to February 2019
Source: Office for National Statistics – International Passenger Survey
Download this chart Figure 1: Overseas residents’ visits to the UK and UK residents’ visits abroad are greatest in the summer
Image .csv .xls
Figure 2: Patterns in spending over the year closely track patterns in visits to the UK, and visits overseas by UK residents
Spending by overseas residents in the UK and spending by UK residents overseas by month from February 2016 to February 2019
Source: Office for National Statistics – International Passenger Survey
Download this chart Figure 2: Patterns in spending over the year closely track patterns in visits to the UK, and visits overseas by UK residents
Image .csv .xls4. Trends in visits to the UK by overseas residents
The figures used in the commentary in this section are sourced from the following monthly overseas travel and tourism datasets:
- Table 1 – Overseas residents' visits to the UK by month
- Table 2 – Purpose of overseas residents' visits to the UK by month
- Table 5 – Earnings in the UK and expenditure abroad by month
Overseas residents made an estimated 2.2 million visits to the UK in February 2019, which was 7% fewer than in February 2018. Overseas residents spent £1.2 billion on visits to the UK in February 2019, which was 5% less than in February 2018.
During the period December 2018 to February 2019, there were 7.7 million visits to the UK, which was 3% more than the corresponding period a year earlier. Overseas residents spent £4.3 billion in the UK over this period, 1% more than the previous year.
Different trends were observed for different areas of the world for this three-month period: there was a decrease of 6% in visits from North American residents to 0.7 million, while visits from European residents increased by 5% to 5.8 million. Visits from residents of “other countries” (countries outside Europe and North America) decreased by 2% to 1.2 million.
Considering the reasons for visiting the UK, holiday visits increased by 14% to 2.7 million for this period, business visits decreased by 4% to 1.8 million and visits to friends and relatives decreased by 1% to 2.7 million.
Overseas residents' visits to UK | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Visits (Thousands) | % change from year earlier | Earnings (£ million) | % change from year earlier | |
Non-seasonally adjusted | ||||
February 2019 | 2,200 | -7 | 1,150 | -5 |
December 2018 to February 2019 | 7,710 | +3 | 4,280 | +1 |
Year to date 2019 | 4,840 | -1 | 2,610 | -3 |
Latest 12 months | 37,860 | -2 | 22,820 | -7 |
Seasonally adjusted | ||||
September 2018 | 3,110 | -1 | 1,660 | -19 |
October 2018 | 3,210 | +5 | 1,960 | +3 |
November 2018 | 3,120 | -5 | 1,860 | -11 |
December 2018 | 3,280 | +7 | 1,840 | +9 |
January 2019 | 3,170 | +5 | 1,940 | -1 |
February 2019 | 3,040 | -7 | 1,890 | -6 |
Download this table Table 1: Main visit and spending estimates for overseas residents' visits to the UK in February 2019
.xls .csv
Figure 3: Visits to the UK by overseas residents increased by 3% in the three months to February 2019 compared with the same period a year previously
Overseas residents' visits to the UK by month from February 2016 to February 2019
Source: Office for National Statistics – International Passenger Survey
Download this chart Figure 3: Visits to the UK by overseas residents increased by 3% in the three months to February 2019 compared with the same period a year previously
Image .csv .xls5. Trends in overseas visits by UK residents (non-seasonally adjusted)
The figures used in the commentary in this section are sourced from the following monthly overseas travel and tourism datasets:
- Table 3 – UK residents’ visits abroad by month
- Table 4 – Purpose of UK residents' visits abroad by month
- Table 5 – Earnings in the UK and expenditure abroad by month
There were an estimated 4.1 million visits overseas by UK residents in February 2019, which was 1% more than in February 2018. UK residents spent £2.4 billion on visits overseas in February 2019, which was 7% less than in February 2018.
During the period December 2018 to February 2019, there were 12.4 million visits abroad by UK residents, which was 2% fewer than the corresponding period a year earlier. UK residents spent £7.6 billion on these visits, 1% more than the previous year.
There were 9.3 million visits to European countries over this three-month period, a decrease of 3% when compared with the same period a year earlier. There were 2.5 million visits to “other countries” (countries outside North America and Europe), a decrease of 4%. However, there was an increase in visits to North America of 10% to 0.7 million.
Considering the reasons for visits, holiday visits decreased by 6% (to 6.6 million) from the same period in the previous year, and business visits increased by 5% (to 1.5 million), while visits to friends and relatives increased by 2% (to 4.1 million).
UK residents' visits abroad | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Visits (Thousands) | % change from year earlier | Expenditure (£ million) | % change from year earlier | |
Non-seasonally adjusted | ||||
February 2019 | 4,120 | +1 | 2,430 | -7 |
December 2018 to February 2019 | 12,420 | -2 | 7,640 | +1 |
Year to date 2019 | 8,660 | -1 | 5,320 | 0 |
Latest 12 months | 71,670 | -1 | 45,420 | +2 |
Seasonally adjusted | ||||
September 2018 | 6,000 | -5 | 3,720 | 0 |
October 2018 | 6,000 | -1 | 3,850 | +8 |
November 2018 | 5,950 | 0 | 3,620 | -4 |
December 2018 | 5,800 | -4 | 3,880 | +5 |
January 2019 | 5,930 | -1 | 3,900 | +7 |
February 2019 | 5,820 | 0 | 3,460 | -7 |
Download this table Table 2: Main visit and spending estimates for UK residents' visits abroad in February 2019
.xls .csv
Figure 4: Visits overseas by UK residents remained the same in the three months to February 2019 compared with the same period a year earlier
UK residents' visits abroad by month (non-seasonally adjusted) from February 2016 to February 2019
Source: Office for National Statistics – International Passenger Survey
Download this chart Figure 4: Visits overseas by UK residents remained the same in the three months to February 2019 compared with the same period a year earlier
Image .csv .xls7. Quality and methodology
The International Passenger Survey (IPS) Quality and Methodology Information report contains important information on:
- the strengths and limitations of the data and how it compares with related data
- uses and users of the data
- how the output was created
- the quality of the output including the accuracy of the data
The International Passenger Survey Methodological Information outlines definitions and sample methodology.
Accuracy of IPS estimates
This section describes how revisions are carried out in the standard production cycle of the survey. Additional potential revisions, to be made on a one-off basis, are described in the Things you need to know about this release section.
Figures for the most recent months are provisional and subject to revision in light of more accurate data on passenger figures becoming available at the end of each quarter, and additional passenger data obtained at the end of each year.
International Passenger Survey (IPS) monthly estimates are revised in line with the IPS revisions policy. The revisions policy is available in the IPS Quality and Methodology Information report, to assist you in the understanding of the cycle and frequency of data revisions. You are strongly advised to read this policy before using these data for research or policy-related purposes.
Planned revisions usually arise from the receipt of revised passenger traffic data. Unplanned revisions are made to correct errors to existing data, identified later in the quarterly and annual processing cycle. Those of significant magnitude will be highlighted and explained.
Revisions to published monthly IPS estimates can be expected at the following times in the normal overseas travel and tourism publication schedule:
monthly estimates for the current reference year will usually be revised and statistically benchmarked across the quarter, following the publication of the quarterly estimates which that month falls within
monthly and quarterly estimates for the current reference year will be revised in the survey year’s annual data release (Travel trends)
monthly estimates for the full calendar year will be statistically benchmarked as part of the annual data processing and the monthly estimates for the year will then be replaced in the monthly release, with the benchmarked estimate following publication of the annual report (Travel trends)
All other revisions will be regarded as unplanned and will be dealt with by non-standard releases. All revisions will be released in compliance with the same principles as other new information. Please refer to our guide to statistical revisions.
Seasonally adjusted figures are no longer shown in the main figures in the bulletin but continue to be presented in the tables.
The estimates produced from the IPS are subject to sampling errors that occur because not every traveller to and from the UK is interviewed on the survey. Sampling errors are determined both by the sample design and by the sample size.
Generally speaking, the larger the sample supporting a particular estimate, the proportionately lower its sampling error. The survey sample size is approximately 20,000 per month. However, as the intensity of the sampling varies at each port, figures of a similar magnitude will not necessarily have the same percentage sampling error.
Accuracy of the estimates is expressed in terms of confidence intervals. The confidence interval is a range within which the true value of a proportion lies with known probability. For example, the 95% confidence interval represents the range into which there are 19 chances out of 20 that the true figure would fall had all passengers been sampled. This is obtained as plus or minus 1.96 multiplied by the standard error.
February 2019 monthly estimates | Estimate | Relative 95% Confidence Interval (+/- % of the estimate) |
---|---|---|
Visits to UK by overseas residents (thousands) | 2,200 | 11.4% |
Earnings from visits to UK (£ million) | 1,150 | 12.6% |
Visits abroad by UK residents (thousands) | 4,120 | 8.1% |
Expenditure on visits abroad (£ million) | 2,430 | 12.7% |
Download this table Table 3: Confidence intervals relating to overseas travel and tourism estimates in February 2019
.xls .csvConfidence intervals for quarterly and annual estimates are provided in our relevant overseas travel and tourism publications.
One indication of the reliability of the main indicators in this release can be obtained by monitoring the size of revisions. Table 4 records the size and pattern of revisions to the quarterly IPS data that have occurred over the last five years to the following main seasonally adjusted estimates:
the number of visits by overseas residents to the UK (GMAT)
the number of visits abroad by UK residents (GMAX)
earnings made from overseas residents in the UK (GMAZ)
expenditure abroad by UK residents (GMBB)
Revisions between first publications and estimates three years later | |||
---|---|---|---|
Value in the latest period Quarter 4 (October to December 2018) | Average over the last five years (bias) | Average over the last five years without regard to sign (average absolute revision) | |
GMAT | 9,570 | 49.50 | 106.50 |
GMAX | 17,940 | *173.5 | *276.5 |
GMAZ | 5,660 | *129 | *155 |
GMBB | 11,750 | *137 | *183 |
Download this table Table 4: Revisions to quarterly International Passenger Survey data over the last five years
.xls .csvNote that estimates are subject to revision between the monthly statistical bulletin and the quarterly publication, and again when Travel trends is published. Revisions result from more accurate passenger figures being made available.
More information about the IPS revisions policy is available in the Quality and Methodology Information report. The most up-to-date and accurate estimates for all published months can be found in the latest edition of the Overseas travel and tourism monthly statistical bulletin.
Note that, although data by the International Passenger Survey (IPS) feed into the calculation of migration statistics, the overseas travel and tourism publications do not provide any information relating to international migration.
Other analyses
For general questions about the IPS and requests for user-requested data analysis (a service governed by our Income and charging policy), please get in touch using the contact details accompanying this release.
Nôl i'r tabl cynnwys