Cynnwys
- Main points
- About the estimates
- Changes to overseas travel and tourism publications
- Main trends in figures and charts
- Trends in visits to the UK by overseas residents non seasonally adjusted (Reference tables 1,2,5)
- Trends in visits abroad by UK residents non seasonally adjusted (Reference tables 3,4,5)
- Other overseas travel and tourism releases
- Reference tables definitions
- Exclusions
- Accuracy of IPS estimates
- Background notes: Definitions
- Background notes: Geographical areas
- Background notes: Purpose groupings
- Background notes: Sample methodology
- Background notes: Important change in IPS sampling
- Background notes: Changes to the IPS in 2009
- Background notes: Special events
- Background notes: Further statistics and other analyses
- Background notes
- Methodoleg
1. Main points
Visits to the UK by overseas residents rose by 4% in the 3 months to July 2015 compared to a year earlier
63.4 million visits abroad were made by UK residents in the 12 months to July 2015, 7% higher than a year earlier
UK residents spent £4.3 billion during visits abroad in July 2015
2. About the estimates
Overseas Travel and Tourism monthly estimates are revised during the processing of the quarterly dataset and again during the processing of the annual dataset. The most up-to-date and accurate estimates for all published months can be found in the latest edition of the Overseas Travel and Tourism monthly statistical bulletin.
The UK Statistics Authority has designated these statistics as National Statistics, in accordance with the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007 and signifying compliance with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics. Designation can be broadly interpreted to mean that the statistics:
meet identified user needs
are well explained and readily accessible
are produced according to sound methods
are managed impartially and objectively in the public interest
Once statistics have been designated as National Statistics it is a statutory requirement that the Code of Practice shall continue to be observed.
Estimates contained in this bulletin are produced from responses provided by international passengers arriving in and departing from the UK, sampled on the International Passenger Survey (350.4 Kb Pdf) that we conduct.
This bulletin contains provisional overseas travel and tourism estimates for July 2015. Revised, final estimates for 2015 will be published in Travel Trends, 2015 in spring 2016. The monthly overseas travel and tourism estimates are produced using provisional passenger traffic data to inform the weighting process that is then revised for production of the quarterly estimates, and final data is then used in the production of the annual results published in Travel Trends (see background note: Accuracy of IPS estimates). The title of the monthly overseas travel and tourism bulletin was renamed in December 2013 to "Overseas Travel and Tourism, Provisional Results for [Month] 2013" to clarify that the data contained in these bulletins are provisional.
The sample profile and responses are calibrated to international passenger traffic for the reporting period.
Estimates are based on interviews conducted when passengers end their visit. Therefore any visits commencing in the reported month but not completed until later are not included in estimates for the reported month.
Spending associated with visits includes anything spent before, during and after the trip.
In January 2015 the methodology for treating outliers was improved. For further information please contact the IPS team.
Parts of the bulletin refer to countries visited abroad. It should be noted that if a UK resident visited more than one country on a trip abroad, the country recorded as visited in this publication is the country that was visited for the longest period.
Estimates are subject to sampling error, and confidence intervals are provided to help readers interpret the estimates (see background note: Accuracy of IPS estimates). Further guidance is provided about the quality of overseas travel and tourism estimates (404.8 Kb Pdf) .
Nôl i'r tabl cynnwys3. Changes to overseas travel and tourism publications
The overseas travel and tourism monthly and quarterly bulletins have been updated to provide additional information about the revisions policy used to revise and finalise the estimates. As part of this improvement to the publications, the titles have been changed to indicate that the estimates are provisional. The final estimates, for the overseas travel and tourism data, are published in the annual Travel Trends publication. The first publications to include the additional information are:
"Overseas Travel and Tourism, Provisional Results for October 2013" – published on 12 December 2013
"Overseas Travel and Tourism, Provisional Results for Quarter 3, 2013" – published on 16 January 2014
4. Main trends in figures and charts
Table 1: Main visit and spending estimates for overseas residents' visits to the UK in 2015
Overseas residents' visits to UK | ||||
Visits (Thousands) | % change from year earlier | Earnings (£ million) | % change from year earlier | |
Non seasonally adjusted | ||||
Jul-15 | 3,650 | 5 | 2,360 | -12 |
May 2015 to July 2015 | 10,440 | 4 | 6,390 | -3 |
Year to date 2015 | 20,460 | 3 | 11,650 | -3 |
Latest 12 months | 35,060 | 3 | 21,480 | -2 |
Seasonally adjusted | ||||
February | 2,890 | 1 | 1,640 | -14 |
March | 2,840 | 1 | 1,830 | 6 |
April | 3,040 | 7 | 1,750 | 1 |
May | 3,130 | 9 | 1,870 | 6 |
June | 3,000 | -1 | 1,880 | -1 |
July | 2,970 | 5 | 1,700 | -12 |
Source: International Passenger Survey - Office for National Statistics | ||||
Download this table Table 1: Main visit and spending estimates for overseas residents' visits to the UK in 2015
.xls (56.8 kB)
Table 2: Main visit and spending estimates for UK residents' visits abroad in 2015
UK residents' visits abroad | ||||
Visits (Thousands) | % change from year earlier | Expenditure (£ million) | % change from year earlier | |
Non seasonally adjusted | ||||
Jul-15 | 6,820 | 14 | 4,270 | 21 |
May 2015 to July 2015 | 19,530 | 10 | 11,340 | 13 |
Year to date 2015 | 36,640 | 10 | 21,140 | 9 |
Latest 12 months | 63,380 | 7 | 37,210 | 6 |
Seasonally adjusted | ||||
February | 5,060 | 2 | 3,010 | -4 |
March | 5,380 | 14 | 3,160 | 12 |
April | 5,520 | 13 | 3,120 | 8 |
May | 5,610 | 6 | 3,170 | 6 |
June | 5,620 | 12 | 3,230 | 12 |
July | 5,800 | 17 | 3,440 | 20 |
Source: International Passenger Survey - Office for National Statistics |
Download this table Table 2: Main visit and spending estimates for UK residents' visits abroad in 2015
.xls (55.8 kB)
Figure 1: Overseas residents' visits to the UK and UK residents' visits abroad (seasonally adjusted)
July 2013 to July 2015
Source: International Passenger Survey (IPS) - Office for National Statistics
Download this chart Figure 1: Overseas residents' visits to the UK and UK residents' visits abroad (seasonally adjusted)
Image .csv .xls
Figure 2: Spending by overseas residents in the UK and spending by UK residents overseas by month (seasonally adjusted)
July 2013 to July 2015
Source: International Passenger Survey (IPS) - Office for National Statistics
Download this chart Figure 2: Spending by overseas residents in the UK and spending by UK residents overseas by month (seasonally adjusted)
Image .csv .xls5. Trends in visits to the UK by overseas residents non seasonally adjusted (Reference tables 1,2,5)
The number of visits to the UK by overseas residents in July 2015 was 3.7 million, a increase of 5% when compared to July 2014. Overseas residents spent £2.4 billion in the UK during these visits.
During the period May 2015 to July 2015, overseas residents’ visits to the UK rose by 4% compared with the corresponding period a year earlier and spent 3% less during this period.
In the 12 months to July 2015, the number of visits to the UK was 3% higher than a year earlier and earnings decreased by 2% during this period. Visits from North America and Europe (see "Background notes: Geographical areas") were up by 7% and 4% respectively and visits from Other Countries fell by 1%. Business trips grew 11%, holiday visits by 1% and visits to friends or relatives by 2%.
Figure 3: Overseas residents' visits to the UK by month (seasonally adjusted)
July 2013 to July 2015
Source: International Passenger Survey (IPS) - Office for National Statistics
Download this chart Figure 3: Overseas residents' visits to the UK by month (seasonally adjusted)
Image .csv .xls6. Trends in visits abroad by UK residents non seasonally adjusted (Reference tables 3,4,5)
The estimated number of visits abroad by UK residents in July 2015 was 6.8 million. UK residents spent £4.3 billion during visits abroad in July 2015.
During the period May 2015 to July 2015, UK residents’ visits abroad rose by 10% compared with the corresponding period a year earlier and they spent 13% more during this period.
In the 12 months to July 2015, the number of visits abroad by UK residents was 7% higher when compared with a year earlier and expenditure on these visits rose by 6% during this period. Visits to North America rose by 8%, Europe by 7% and Other Countries by 7%. Visits to friends or relatives rose by 7%, holiday visits rose by 9% and business visits remained the same.
Figure 4: UK residents' visits abroad by month (seasonally adjusted)
July 2013 to July 2015
Source: International Passenger Survey (IPS) - Office for National Statistics
Download this chart Figure 4: UK residents' visits abroad by month (seasonally adjusted)
Image .csv .xls7. Other overseas travel and tourism releases
More detailed analysis of overseas travel and tourism trends are provided in the publications:
Overseas Travel and Tourism Quarterly, latest publication for Quarter 1 Jan to March 2015 was published on 16 July 2015. This publication provides more detailed analysis of visits and spending, isolating aspects such as countries of visit, mode of travel used, nationality of visitors and regions of the UK visited. Quarter 2, Apr to June 2015 data will be published on 15 Oct 2015
Travel Trends, latest publication Travel Trends 2014 was published on 20 May 2015, the next publication (Travel Trends 2015) will be published in spring 2016. This publication provides final overseas travel and tourism estimates and more detailed analysis of visits and spending, including analysis by demographics, towns in the UK visited and countries visited by residents of different parts of the UK
TravelPac is a data set which allows users to conduct their own analysis of quarterly and annual data on main variables. The datasets are provided in SPSS and Excel
Note that estimates are subject to revision between the monthly statistical bulletin and the quarterly publication and again when Travel Trends is published. Revisions result from more accurate passenger figures being made available. More information about the IPS revisions policy is available in the Quality and Methodology Information (350.4 Kb Pdf). The most up-to-date and accurate estimates for all published months can be found in the latest edition of the Overseas Travel and Tourism monthly statistical bulletin.
Note that, although data by the International Passenger Survey (IPS) also feeds into the calculation of migration statistics, the Overseas Travel and Tourism publications do not provide any information relating to international migration.
Nôl i'r tabl cynnwys8. Reference tables definitions
Abbreviations used in the tables:
NA ...not available
SA ...seasonally adjusted
NSA ...not seasonally adjusted
† ...point of earliest revision due to the most recent quarterly benchmarking
1 ...estimate (rounded to nearest 10,000 visits or £10 million)
Constituent items in the tables may not add exactly to totals due to rounding.
Nôl i'r tabl cynnwys9. Exclusions
Trippers who cross the Channel or the North Sea but do not alight from the boat.
Migrants and persons travelling overseas to take up prearranged employment, together with military or diplomatic personnel, merchant seaman and airline personnel on duty.
Overseas residents passing through the UK on their way to other destinations (often known as transit passengers) but who do not stay overnight (however any spending whilst here is included in the figures for earnings).
Nôl i'r tabl cynnwys10. Accuracy of IPS estimates
Figures for the most recent months are provisional and subject to revision in light of (a) more accurate data on passenger figures becoming available at the end of each quarter and (b) additional passenger data obtained at the end of each year.
IPS monthly estimates are revised in line with the IPS revisions policy. The revisions policy is available in the IPS Quality and Methodology Information (350.4 Kb Pdf) paper to assist users in the understanding of the cycle and frequency of data revisions. Users of this bulletin are strongly advised to read this policy before using this data for research or policy related purposes.
Planned revisions usually arise from either the receipt of revised passenger traffic data or the correction of errors to existing data identified later in the quarterly and annual processing cycle. Those of significant magnitude will be highlighted and explained.
Revisions to published monthly IPS estimates can be expected at the following times in the normal overseas travel and tourism publication schedule:
monthly estimates for the current reference year will usually be revised and statistically benchmarked across the quarter following the publication of the quarterly estimates within which that month falls
monthly and quarterly estimates for the current reference year will be revised in the survey year’s annual data release (Travel Trends)
monthly estimates, for the full calendar year, will be statistically benchmarked as part of the annual data processing and the monthly estimates for the year will then be replaced in the monthly release with the benchmarked estimate following publication of the annual report (Travel Trends)
All other revisions will be regarded as unplanned and will be dealt with by non-standard releases. All revisions will be released in compliance with the same principles as other new information. Please refer to our guide to statistical revisions.
The main series are seasonally adjusted. This aids interpretation by identifying seasonal patterns and calendar effects and removing them from the unadjusted data. The resulting figures give a more accurate indication of underlying movements in the series.
The estimates produced from the IPS are subject to sampling errors that result because not every traveller to and from the UK is interviewed on the survey. Sampling errors are determined both by the sample design and by the sample size–generally speaking, the larger the sample supporting a particular estimate, the proportionately lower its sampling error. The survey sample size is approximately 25,000 per month. However, as the intensity of the sampling varies at each port, figures of a similar magnitude will not necessarily have the same percentage sampling error.
The IPS has a clustered sample design. The full effects of this complex sample design upon each of the main estimates is calculated, and it is calculated the "complex" sampling errors which are quoted.
Accuracy of the estimates is expressed in terms of confidence intervals. The confidence interval is a range within which the true value of a proportion lies with known probability. For example, the 95% confidence interval represents the range into which there are 19 chances out of 20 that the true figure would fall had all passengers been sampled. This is obtained as +/- 1.96 the standard error.
Table 3: Confidence intervals relating to overseas travel and tourism estimates in July 2015
July 2015 monthly estimates | Estimate | Relative 95% Confidence Interval (+/- % of the estimate) |
Visits to UK by overseas residents (thousands) | 3,650 | 6.6% |
Earnings from visits to UK (£ million) | 2,360 | 7.2% |
Visits abroad by UK residents (thousands) | 6,820 | 3.4% |
Expenditure on visits abroad (£ million) | 4,270 | 5.3% |
Source: International Passenger Survey - Office for National Statistics | ||
Notes: | ||
1. Units: GMAT and GMAX in thousands | ||
2. A statistical test has been applied to find out if the revision to each key indicator is statisically different from zero. An asterisk (*) indicates where the mean revision has been significantly different from zero |
Download this table Table 3: Confidence intervals relating to overseas travel and tourism estimates in July 2015
.xls (27.6 kB)Confidence intervals for quarterly and annual estimates are provided in the relevant overseas travel and tourism publications published by us.
One indication of the reliability of the main indicators in this release can be obtained by monitoring the size of revisions. Table 4 records the size and pattern of revisions to the quarterly IPS data which have occurred over the last 5 years to the following main seasonally adjusted estimates:
the number of visits by overseas residents to the UK (GMAT)
the number of visits abroad by UK residents (GMAX)
earnings made from overseas residents in the UK (GMAZ)
expenditure abroad by UK residents (GMBB)
Table 4: Revisions over the last 5 years
Value in the latest period (2015 quarter 2, Apr to June 2015) | Averages over the last 5 years (bias) | Average over the last 5 years without regard to sign (average absolute revision) | |
GMAT | 9,180 | 23.33 | 111.9 |
GMAX | 16,690 | 129.52 | 245.71 |
GMAZ | 5,530 | *52.62 | *95.95 |
GMBB | 9,450 | *153.81 | *160.48 |
Source: Office for National Statistics | |||
Notes: | |||
1. Units: GMAT and GMAX in thousands. | |||
2. A statistical test has been applied to find out if the revision to each key indicator is statisically different from zero. An asterisk (*) indicates where the mean revision has been significantly different from zero. |