Cynnwys
- Correction
- Main points
- About the estimates
- Changes to overseas travel and tourism publications
- Main trends in figures and charts
- Trends in visits to the UK by overseas residents non seasonally adjusted (Reference tables 1,2,5)
- Trends in visits abroad by UK residents non seasonally adjusted (Reference tables 3,4,5)
- Other overseas travel and tourism releases
- Reference tables definitions
- Exclusions
- Background notes: Definitions
- Background notes: Geographical areas
- Background notes: Purpose groupings
- Background notes: Sample methodology
- Accuracy of IPS estimates
- Background notes: Important change in IPS sampling
- Background notes: Changes to the IPS in 2009
- Background notes: Special events
- Background notes: Further statistics and other analyses
- Background notes
- Methodoleg
1. Correction
20 May 2015, 11:00am
Overseas Travel and Tourism quarterly estimates are revised during the processing of the annual dataset. The most up-to-date and accurate estimates for all published quarters can be found in Travel Trends 2014.
Please note that during the annual data processing, the 2014 data have been revised to include updated factors for imbalance and rail expenditure imputation, resulting in larger changes than usually observed between quarterly statistical bulletins and the annual Travel Trends publication. We identified that, for consistency, these updated factors should be applied to the 2013 Q3 and Q4 data. Also, an error in the treatment of the unsampled traffic data for the Quarter 1 data was corrected during the annual data processing. The data tables in section 6 of Travel Trends, 2014 include corrected Quarter 1 data.
The Overseas Travel and Tourism expenditure estimates were re-instated as National Statistics following a formal review by the UK Statistics Authority for their compliance with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics.
Nôl i'r tabl cynnwys2. Main points
Visits to the UK by overseas residents have dropped compared to the same month in the previous year for the third consecutive month in February 2015 to 2.1 million visits, however visits to the UK in the last 12 months are still 4% higher than in the previous year
The fall in visitors to the UK is reflected in a fall in earnings to the UK. Overseas residents spent £1 billion during their visits to the UK in February 2015
UK residents made 3.4 million visits abroad in February 2015 and spent £2 billion during these visits
3. About the estimates
Estimates contained in this bulletin are produced from responses provided by international passengers arriving in and departing from the UK, sampled on the international passenger survey (127.8 Kb Pdf) that we conduct.
This bulletin contains provisional overseas travel and tourism estimates for February 2015. Revised, final estimates will be published in Travel Trends, 2014 on 14 May 2015. The monthly overseas travel and tourism estimates are produced using provisional passenger traffic data to inform the weighting process that is then revised for production of the quarterly estimates, and final data is then used in the production of the annual results published in Travel Trends (see background note: Accuracy of IPS estimates). The title of the monthly overseas travel and tourism bulletin was renamed in December 2013 to "Overseas Travel and Tourism, Provisional Results for [Month] 2013" to clarify that the data contained in these bulletins are provisional.
On 18 November 2014 we announced that errors had been identified in the expenditure estimates for UK residents visits abroad and overseas residents' visits to the UK within the overseas travel and tourism release. The errors in the expenditure estimates affected data between January 2014 and September 2014 and because the data feeds into the imports and exports of service also affected the UK Trade releases over the same period. The ONS statement regarding this error can be found on our website.
This bulletin contains corrected figures for the affected January to September 2014 data. These errors were corrected in the republished September 2014 monthly bulletin, and consistent with the Authority's letter of 14 November 2014, overseas travel and tourism expenditure estimates are in the process of being re-assessed for National Statistics status, following an internal review.
The sample profile and responses are calibrated to international passenger traffic for the reporting period.
Estimates are based on interviews conducted when passengers end their visit. Therefore any visits commencing in the reported month but not completed until later are not included in estimates for the reported month.
Spending associated with visits includes anything spent before, during and after the trip.
In January 2015 the methodology for treating outliers was improved. For further information please contact the IPS team.
Parts of the bulletin refer to countries visited abroad. It should be noted that if a UK resident visited more than one country on a trip abroad, the country recorded as visited in this publication is the country that was visited for the longest period.
Estimates are subject to sampling error, and confidence intervals are provided to help readers interpret the estimates (see background note: Accuracy of IPS estimates). Further guidance is provided about the quality of overseas travel and tourism estimates (404.8 Kb Pdf) .
Nôl i'r tabl cynnwys4. Changes to overseas travel and tourism publications
The overseas travel and tourism monthly and quarterly bulletins have been updated to provide additional information about the revisions policy used to revise and finalise the estimates. As part of this improvement to the publications, the titles have been changed to indicate that the estimates are provisional. The final estimates, for the overseas travel and tourism data, are published in the annual Travel Trends publication. The first publications to include the additional information are:
"Overseas Travel and Tourism, Provisional Results for October 2013" - published on 12 December 2013
"Overseas Travel and Tourism, Provisional Results for Quarter 3, 2013" - published on 16 January 2014
5. Main trends in figures and charts
Table 1: Main visit and spending estimates for overseas residents' visits to the UK in 2014 to 2015
Overseas residents' visits to UK | ||||
Visits (000s) | % change from year earlier | Expenditure (£ million)1 | % change from year earlier | |
Non seasonally adjusted | ||||
Feb-15 | 2,080 | -5 | 970 | -19 |
Dec 2014 to Feb 2015 | 6,880 | -2 | 3,920 | -8 |
Year to date 2015 | 4,470 | -3 | 2,230 | -14 |
Latest 12 months | 34,640 | 4 | 21,360 | 0 |
Seasonally adjusted | ||||
September | 2,930 | 6 | 1,800 | -1 |
October | 2,870 | 1 | 1,730 | -4 |
November | 2,880 | 6 | 1,810 | 7 |
December | 2,810 | 1 | 1,860 | 4 |
January | 2,800 | -2 | 1,670 | -12 |
February | 2,830 | -3 | 1,550 | -19 |
Source: Office for National Statistics | ||||
Notes: | ||||
1. This is not a National Statistic |
Download this table Table 1: Main visit and spending estimates for overseas residents' visits to the UK in 2014 to 2015
.xls (56.3 kB)
Table 2: Main visit and spending estimates for UK residents' visits abroad in 2014 to 2015
UK residents' visits abroad | ||||
Visits (000s) | % change from year earlier | Expenditure (£ million)1 | % change from year earlier | |
Non seasonally adjusted | ||||
Feb-15 | 3,410 | -3 | 2,010 | -8 |
Dec 2014 to Feb 2015 | 10,570 | -1 | 6,020 | -6 |
Year to date 2015 | 7,350 | -1 | 4,310 | -6 |
Latest 12 months | 60,890 | 3 | 35,770 | 0 |
Seasonally adjusted | ||||
September | 5,080 | 4 | 3,050 | 6 |
October | 5,080 | 6 | 3,170 | 7 |
November | 4,990 | 0 | 2,970 | -1 |
December | 5,020 | 1 | 2,920 | -4 |
January | 5,090 | -1 | 2,960 | -6 |
February | 5,000 | -2 | 2,950 | -8 |
Source: Office for National Statistics | ||||
Notes: | ||||
1. This is not a National Statistic |
Download this table Table 2: Main visit and spending estimates for UK residents' visits abroad in 2014 to 2015
.xls (56.3 kB)
Figure 1: Overseas residents' visits to the UK and UK residents' visits abroad (seasonally adjusted)
Feb 2013 to Feb 2015
Source: International Passenger Survey (IPS) - Office for National Statistics
Download this chart Figure 1: Overseas residents' visits to the UK and UK residents' visits abroad (seasonally adjusted)
Image .csv .xls
Figure 2: Spending by overseas residents in the UK and spending by UK residents overseas by month (seasonally adjusted)*
Feb 2013 to Feb 2015
Source: International Passenger Survey (IPS) - Office for National Statistics
Notes:
- * This is not a National Statistic
Download this chart Figure 2: Spending by overseas residents in the UK and spending by UK residents overseas by month (seasonally adjusted)*
Image .csv .xls6. Trends in visits to the UK by overseas residents non seasonally adjusted (Reference tables 1,2,5)
The number of visits to the UK by overseas residents in February 2015 was 2.1 million, a drop of 5% when compared to February 2014. Overseas residents spent £1 billion in the UK during these visits.
During the period December 2014 to February 2015, overseas residents visits to the UK fell by 2% compared with the corresponding period a year earlier and spent 8% less during this period.
In the 12 months to February 2015, the number of visits to the UK was 4% higher than a year earlier and earnings remained the same during this period. Visits from North America and Europe (see "Background notes: geographical areas") were up by 5% and 4% respectively. Business trips grew 6%, holiday visits by 5% and visits to friends or relatives by 3%.
Figure 3: Overseas residents' visits to the UK by month (seasonally adjusted)
Feb 2013 to Feb 2015
Source: International Passenger Survey (IPS) - Office for National Statistics
Download this chart Figure 3: Overseas residents' visits to the UK by month (seasonally adjusted)
Image .csv .xls7. Trends in visits abroad by UK residents non seasonally adjusted (Reference tables 3,4,5)
The estimated number of visits abroad by UK residents in February 2015 was 3.4 million. UK residents spent £2 billion during visits abroad in February 2015.
In the 12 months to February 2015, the number of visits abroad by UK residents was 3% higher when compared with a year earlier and expenditure on these visits remained the same during this period. Visits to North America rose by 8%, Europe by 3% and Other Countries rose by 2%. Visits to friends or relatives rose by 8%, holiday visits rose by 3% and business visits dropped by 7%.
Figure 4: UK residents' visits abroad by month (seasonally adjusted)
Feb 2013 to Feb 2015
Source: International Passenger Survey (IPS) - Office for National Statistics
Download this chart Figure 4: UK residents' visits abroad by month (seasonally adjusted)
Image .csv .xls8. Other overseas travel and tourism releases
More detailed analysis of overseas travel and tourism trends are provided in the publications:
Overseas Travel and Tourism Quarterly, latest publication for quater 3 Jul to Sep 2014 was published on 15 January 2015. This publication provides more detailed analysis of visits and spending, isolating aspects such as countries of visit, mode of travel used, nationality of visitors, regions of the UK visited. quarter 4, Oct to Dec 2014 data will be published within the annual publication Travel Trends, 2014 due to be published on 14 May 2015
Travel Trends, latest publication Travel Trends 2013 was published on 8 May 2014, the next publication (Travel Trends 2014) will be published on 14 May 2015. This publication provides final overseas travel and tourism estimates and more detailed analysis of visits and spending, including analysis by demographics, towns in the UK visited and countries visited by residents of different parts of the UK
TravelPac is a data set which allows users to conduct their own analysis of quarterly and annual data on key variables. The datasets are provided in SPSS and Excel
Note that estimates are subject to revision between the monthly statistical bulletin and the quarterly publication and again when Travel Trends is published. Revisions result from more accurate passenger figures being made available, more information about the IPS revisions policy is available in the Quality and Methodology Information (331.7 Kb Pdf).
Note that, although data by the international passenger survey (IPS) also feeds into the calculation of migration statistics, the overseas travel and tourism publications do not provide any information relating to International migration.
Nôl i'r tabl cynnwys9. Reference tables definitions
Abbreviations used in the tables:
NA ...not available
SA ...seasonally adjusted
NSA ...not seasonally adjusted
† ...point of earliest revision
1 ...estimate (rounded to nearest 10,000 visits or £10 million)
Constituent items in the tables may not add exactly to totals due to rounding.
Nôl i'r tabl cynnwys10. Exclusions
Trippers who cross the Channel or the North Sea but do not alight from the boat.
Migrants and persons travelling overseas to take up prearranged employment, together with military/diplomatic personnel, merchant seaman and airline personnel on duty.
Overseas residents passing through the UK en route to other destinations (often known as transit passengers) but who do not stay overnight (however any spending whilst here is included in the figures for earnings).
Nôl i'r tabl cynnwys