Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey headline results, UK: 2 February 2022

During this period of high infections, we have decided to publish our headline results two days early. This means that the latest estimates on infection levels are available at their earliest opportunity and further breakdowns for the same period and a longer data time series will be published on Fridays. These early estimates are provisional and are subject to change as we receive more data, but they have undergone sufficient quality assurance to ensure that they are based upon an acceptable number of test results received up to the end of the reference week. This week, we are publishing estimates for the week ending 29 January 2022.

Today, we have published new data that show:

• In England, the percentage of people testing positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) remained high in the week ending 29 January 2022; we estimate that 2,633,100 people in England had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 2,544,100 to 2,725,100), equating to around 1 in 20 people.

• In Wales, the percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 increased in the week ending 29 January 2022; we estimate that 139,000 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 119,800 to 159,300), equating to around 1 in 20 people.

• In Northern Ireland, the percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 increased in the week ending 29 January 2022; we estimate that 136,300 people in Northern Ireland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 118,200 to 155,200), equating to around 1 in 15 people.

• In Scotland, the percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 decreased in the two weeks up to 29 January 2022, but the trend was uncertain in the most recent week; we estimate that 185,100 people in Scotland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 162,100 to 210,800), equating to around 1 in 30 people.

• In England, the percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 varied substantially across age groups, with the highest for those aged 2 to school Year 6 at 13.09% (95% confidence interval: 12.13% to 14.07%) and lowest for those aged 70 and over at 1.97% (95% confidence interval: 1.78% to 2.17%), in the week ending 29 January 2022.

• The percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 remained high across all regions of England in the week ending 29 January 2022.

Figure 1: The percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 remained high in England, increased in Wales and Northern Ireland, and the trend was uncertain in Scotland in the week ending 29 January 2022

Estimated percentage of the population testing positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) on nose and throat swabs, UK, 6 February 2021 to 29 January 2022

Notes:

1. Modelled results are provisional and subject to revision.

2. These statistics refer to infections occurring in private households. The figures exclude infections reported in hospitals, care homes and/or other communal establishments.

3. All estimates are subject to uncertainty, a credible interval gives an indication of the uncertainty of an estimate from data analysis.

4. Official reported estimates are plotted at a reference point believed to be most representative of the given week.

5. The official estimate presents the best estimate at that point in time. Modelled estimates are used to calculate the official reported estimate. The model smooths the series to understand the trend and is revised each week to incorporate new test results, providing the best indication of trend over time.

6. Official estimates are displayed over a rolling year up to the most recent week. The full time series of our official estimates from 27 April 2020 onwards are available in the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey datasets.

7. The majority of infections are compatible with the Omicron BA.1 variant, therefore we are presenting the total infections.

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Credible interval

A credible interval gives an indication of the uncertainty of an estimate from data analysis. The 95% credible intervals are calculated so that there is a 95% probability of the true value lying in the interval.

Reference dates

This week, the reference week is 23 to 29 January 2022 for England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland. The reference day is Wednesday 26 January 2022. More information on reference weeks and days can be found in the Measuring the data section of our Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK: 23 December 2021 bulletin.

Data for a longer time series

A longer time series from earlier data can be found in our usual weekly Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey datasets for England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland.

Survey fieldwork

Survey fieldwork for the pilot study began in England on 26 April 2020. Fieldwork began on 29 June 2020 in Wales, 26 July 2020 in Northern Ireland, and 21 September 2020 in Scotland. 

Other Coronavirus Infection Survey (CIS) analysis and studies

This study is one of a number of studies that look to provide information around the coronavirus pandemic within the UK. For information on other studies see  Section 11: Measuring the data  in our previous bulletin, published 30 April 2021. 

Quality

More quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in our methods article and the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey QMI.