Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey headline results, UK: 26 January 2022

The latest data from the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection survey, containing high level estimates for England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland. This survey is being delivered in partnership with University of Oxford, University of Manchester, UK Health Security Agency and Wellcome Trust. This study is jointly led by the ONS and the Department for Health and Social Care (DHSC) working with the University of Oxford and Lighthouse laboratory to collect and test samples.

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Cyswllt:
Email Rhiannon Yapp, Trudy Hill and Gillian Flower

Dyddiad y datganiad:
26 January 2022

Cyhoeddiad nesaf:
2 February 2022

1. Main points

During this period of high infections, we have decided to publish our headline results two days early. This means that the latest estimates on infection levels are available at their earliest opportunity and further breakdowns for the same period and a longer data time series will be published on Fridays. These early estimates are provisional and are subject to change as we receive more data, but they have undergone sufficient quality assurance to ensure that they are based upon an acceptable number of test results received up to the end of the reference week. This week, we are publishing estimates for the week ending 22 January 2022.

Today, we have published new data that show:

  • In England, the percentage of people testing positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) continued to decrease in the week ending 22 January 2022; we estimate that 2,629,400 people in England had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 2,542,500 to 2,716,500), equating to around 1 in 20 people.
  • In Wales, the percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 continued to decrease in the week ending 22 January 2022; we estimate that 99,500 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 83,300 to 117,100), equating to around 1 in 30 people.
  • In Northern Ireland, the trend in the percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 was uncertain in the week ending 22 January 2022; we estimate that 96,500 people in Northern Ireland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 81,600 to 112,700), equating to around 1 in 20 people.
  • In Scotland, the percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 continued to decrease in the week ending 22 January 2022; we estimate that 163,600 people in Scotland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 143,600 to 184,500), equating to around 1 in 30 people.
  • In England, the percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 continued to increase for those aged 2 years to school Year 6 and increased for those in school Year 7 to school Year 11, in the week ending 22 January 2022; the percentage of people testing positive decreased for all other age groups in the most recent week.  
  • COVID-19 infections decreased in all regions in the most recent week except in the South West where the percentage of people testing positive had decreased in the latest two weeks, but the trend was uncertain in the most recent week.
  • Omicron variant compatible infections continue to be dominant across all UK countries.

Figure 1: The percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 continued to decrease in England, Wales and Scotland in the week ending 22 January 2022

Estimated percentage of the population testing positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) on nose and throat swabs, UK, 31 January 2021 to 22 January 2022

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Notes:

  1. Modelled results are provisional and subject to revision.
  2. These statistics refer to infections occurring in private households. The figures exclude infections reported in hospitals, care homes and/or other communal establishments.
  3. All estimates are subject to uncertainty, a credible interval gives an indication of the uncertainty of an estimate from data analysis.
  4. Official reported estimates are plotted at a reference point believed to be most representative of the given week.
  5. The official estimate presents the best estimate at that point in time. Modelled estimates are used to calculate the official reported estimate. The model smooths the series to understand the trend and is revised each week to incorporate new test results, providing the best indication of trend over time.
  6. Official estimates are displayed over a rolling year up to the most recent week. The full time series of our official estimates from 27 April 2020 onwards are available in the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey datasets.
  7. The majority of infections are compatible with the Omicron variant, therefore we are presenting the total infections without breaking down by variant.
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2. Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey data

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey headline results, UK
Dataset | Released 26 January 2022
Headline estimates from the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey for England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland.

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3. Glossary

Credible interval

A credible interval gives an indication of the uncertainty of an estimate from data analysis. The 95% credible intervals are calculated so that there is a 95% probability of the true value lying in the interval.

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4. Measuring the data

Reference dates

This week, the reference week is 16 to 22 January 2022 for England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland. The reference day is Wednesday 19 January 2022. More information on reference weeks and days can be found in the Measuring the data section of our Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK: 23 December 2021 bulletin.

Data for a longer time series

A longer time series from earlier data can be found in our usual weekly Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey datasets for England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland.

Survey fieldwork

Survey fieldwork for the pilot study began in England on 26 April 2020. Fieldwork began on 29 June 2020 in Wales, 26 July 2020 in Northern Ireland, and 21 September 2020 in Scotland. 

Other Coronavirus Infection Survey (CIS) analysis and studies

This study is one of a number of studies that look to provide information around the coronavirus pandemic within the UK. For information on other studies see Section 11: Measuring the data in our previous bulletin, published 30 April 2021. 

Quality

More quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in our methods article and the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey QMI.

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Manylion cyswllt ar gyfer y Bwletin ystadegol

Rhiannon Yapp, Trudy Hill and Gillian Flower
infection.survey.analysis@ons.gov.uk
Ffôn: +44 1633 560499