Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional: week ending 8 January 2021

• The number of deaths registered in England and Wales was affected by the Boxing Day and New Year's Day Bank Holidays; 17,751 deaths were registered in the week ending 8 January 2021 (Week 1), 7,682 more deaths than in the preceding week (Week 53); this sharp increase may be because of deaths in the previous weeks whose registrations were delayed, so the figures in this week's release should be interpreted with caution.

• We estimate that the number of deaths actually occurring (rather than registered) in Week 1 in England and Wales was between 14,008 and 17,728.

• In Week 1, the number of deaths registered was 45.8% above the five-year average (5,576 deaths higher) but this increase should be treated with caution because of potential registration delays from the Christmas period.

• Of the deaths registered in Week 1, 6,057 mentioned "novel coronavirus (COVID-19)", accounting for 34.1% of all deaths in England and Wales; in Week 1, deaths involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) increased compared with Week 53 (by 2,913 deaths).

• Of the 6,057 deaths involving COVID-19, 5,367 had this recorded as the underlying cause of death (88.6%).

• Of the 4,649 deaths that involved Influenza and Pneumonia, 380 had this recorded as the underlying cause of death (8.2%).

• In England, the total number of registered deaths increased from 9,325 (Week 53) to 16,527 (Week 1); all English regions had a higher number of deaths than the five-year average for the ninth week in a row.

• In Week 1, the number of deaths involving COVID-19 increased in all English regions compared with Week 53.

• In Wales, the number of deaths involving COVID-19 increased from 310 (Week 53) to 454 (Week 1) while the total number of deaths in Week 1 was 442 higher than the five-year average.

• The number of deaths registered in the UK in the week ending 8 January 2021 was 20,023, which was 6,170 higher than the five-year average; of deaths registered in the UK in Week 1, 6,586 deaths involved COVID-19, 3,162 higher than in Week 53.

Figure 1: The number of deaths was above the five-year average in Week 1

Number of deaths registered by week, England and Wales, 28 December 2019 to 8 January 2021

Notes:

1. Figures exclude deaths of non-residents.

2. Based on date a death was registered rather than occurred.

3. All figures for 2020 and 2021 are provisional.

4. The number of deaths registered in 2020 Weeks 19, 20, 22, 23, 36, 37, 52 and 53 and in Week 1 2021 were affected by the early May, late May, August, Christmas and New Year Bank Holidays (Friday 8 May 2020, Monday 25 May 2020, Monday 31 August 2020, Friday 25 December 2020, Monday 28 December 2020, Friday 1 January 2021); the impact of the early May Bank Holiday was analysed in our Week 20 bulletin.

5. The Week 52 five-year average is used to compare against Week 53 deaths.

6. The five-year average has been provided for 2015 to 2019 (rather than 2016 to 2020) because of the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on deaths registered in 2020. The average for 2015 to 2019 provides a comparison of the number of deaths expected per week in a usual (non-pandemic) year.

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The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales increased from 10,069 in Week 53 (week ending 1 January 2021) to 17,751 in Week 1 (week ending 8 January 2021). The number of deaths was 45.8% above the five-year average (5,576 deaths higher). Provisional weekly death registrations data for England and Wales in 2020 are available on our website.

Week 53 included both the Boxing Day and New Year's Day Bank Holidays, and registration delays during this period may account for the increase in death registrations in Week 1. Like last week, the trends should therefore be interpreted with caution this week. More information on the impact registration delays have on mortality statistics is available. To better understand the number of actual deaths that occurred in Week 1 we provide an estimate that is described in detail later in this section. The estimated number of deaths occurring in Week 1 using an experimental statistical model is discussed later in this bulletin.

In England, the number of deaths increased from 9,325 in Week 53 to 16,527 in Week 1, which was 5,115 deaths (44.8%) higher than the Week 1 five-year average (Figure 1).

In Wales, the number of deaths increased from 727 in Week 53 to 1,198 in Week 1, which was 442 deaths (58.5%) higher than the Week 1 five-year average (Figure 1).

Figure 2: The number of deaths involving COVID-19 increased in Week 1

Deaths involving and due to COVID-19, and Influenza and Pneumonia, England and Wales, deaths registered in 2020 and 2021

Notes:

1. Figures include deaths of non-residents.

2. Based on date a death was registered rather than occurred.

3. All figures for 2020 and 2021 are provisional.

4. The International Classification of Diseases, 10th Edition (ICD-10) definitions are as follows: coronavirus (COVID-19) (U07.1 and U07.2) and Influenza and Pneumonia (J09 to J18).

5. A death can be registered with both COVID-19 and Influenza and Pneumonia mentioned on the death certificate. Deaths where both were mentioned have been counted in both categories.

6. We use the term "due to COVID-19" or "due to Influenza and Pneumonia" when referring only to deaths where that illness was recorded as the underlying cause of death. We use the term "involving COVID-19" or "involving Influenza and Pneumonia" when referring to deaths that had that illness mentioned anywhere on the death certificate, whether as an underlying cause or not.

7. The number of deaths registered in 2020 Weeks 19, 20, 22, 23, 36, 37, 52 and 53 and in Week 1 2021 were affected by the early May, late May, August, Christmas and New Year Bank Holidays (Friday 8 May 2020, Monday 25 May 2020, Monday 31 August 2020, Friday 25 December 2020, Monday 28 December 2020, Friday 1 January 2021); the impact of the early May Bank Holiday was analysed in our Week 20 bulletin.

8. The Week 52 five-year average is used to compare against Week 53 deaths.

9. The five-year average has been provided for 2015 to 2019 (rather than 2016 to 2020) because of the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on deaths registered in 2020. The average for 2015 to 2019 provides a comparison of the number of deaths expected per week in a usual (non-pandemic) year.

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The number of death registrations in England and Wales involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) increased from 3,144 in Week 53 to 6,057 in Week 1 – a 92.7% increase. Of all deaths registered in Week 1, 34.1% mentioned COVID-19; this is the highest proportion of deaths involving COVID-19 since Week 18 (week ending 1 May 2020).

In England, the number of deaths involving COVID-19 was 5,597, accounting for 33.9% of all deaths. In Wales, 454 deaths involved COVID-19, 37.9% of all deaths.

Of the 6,057 deaths in England and Wales that involved COVID-19, 5,367 had this recorded as the underlying cause of death (88.6%, Figure 2). Of the 4,649 deaths that involved Influenza and Pneumonia, 380 had this recorded as the underlying cause of death (8.2%).

Deaths that involved both COVID-19, and Influenza and Pneumonia have been included in both categories for consistency when comparing with the underlying cause of death. Influenza and Pneumonia has been included for comparison, as a well-understood cause of death involving respiratory infection that is likely to have somewhat similar risk factors to COVID-19. More detailed analysis is available in our Deaths due to coronavirus (COVID-19) compared with deaths from influenza and pneumonia release.

We have developed an experimental statistical model to estimate the number of deaths that actually occurred in a given week, rather than the number registered. For Week 1, we estimate that 15,687 deaths occurred in England and Wales, with a 95% confidence interval of 14,008 to 17,728. This is around 3,000 extra deaths than observed for Week 1 2020 and the five-year average (2015 to 2019). However, the estimate for this week is subject to particular uncertainty because registrations in Week 53 (week ending 1 January 2021) could not be used to adjust for registration delay in the usual way, and registrations in Week 52 (ending 25 December 2020) were used instead. Therefore, the estimate should be treated with caution.

These are provisional estimates that assume the pattern of occurrences can be predicted based on experience in previous years. The estimate for the most recent week always has a wider margin of error than for earlier weeks, so it should be treated with caution.

Figure 3: Deaths not involving COVID-19 were below the five-year average in Week 1

Number of deaths registered by week, England and Wales, 28 December 2019 to 8 January 2021

Notes:

1. Figures include deaths of non-residents.

2. Based on date a death was registered rather than occurred.

3. All figures for 2020 and 2021 are provisional.

4. The International Classification of Diseases, 10th Edition (ICD-10) definitions are as follows; coronavirus (COVID-19) (U07.1 and U07.2).

5. The number of deaths registered in 2020 Weeks 19, 20, 22, 23, 36, 37, 52 and 53 and in Week 1 2021 were affected by the Early May, Late May, August, Christmas and New Year Bank Holidays (Friday 8 May 2020, Monday 25 May 2020, Monday 31 August 2020, Friday 25 December 2020, Monday 28 December 2020, Friday 1 January 2021); the impact of the Early May Bank Holiday was analysed in our Week 20 bulletin.

6. The Week 52 five-year average is used to compare against Week 53 deaths.

7. The five-year average has been provided for 2015 to 2019 (rather than 2016 to 2020) because of the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on deaths registered in 2020. The average for 2015 to 2019 provides a comparison of the number of deaths expected per week in a usual (non-pandemic) year.

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In this bulletin, analysis includes deaths from Week 1 2020 (week ending 3 January 2020) through to 2021, to ensure full coverage of the ongoing coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Using the most up-to-date data we have available, the number of deaths from 3 January 2020 up to 8 January 2021 was 631,847, which is 80,589 more than the five-year average. Of the deaths registered by 8 January 2021, 87,726 mentioned COVID-19 on the death certificate. This is 13.9% of all deaths in England and Wales.

In England, the number of deaths from 3 January 2020 up to 8 January 2021 was 591,988, which is 76,846 (14.9%) more than the five-year average. Of these, 82,207 deaths (13.9%) mentioned COVID-19.

In Wales, the number of deaths from 3 January 2020 up to 8 January 2021 was 38,992, which is 4,387 (12.7%) more than the five-year average. Of these, 5,417 deaths (13.9%) mentioned COVID-19.

In Week 1 (week ending 8 January 2021), the number of deaths involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) in England and Wales increased in most age groups compared with Week 53 (week ending 1 January 2021), including every age group over 30 to 34 years. The biggest increase was seen in those aged 90 years and over (619 more deaths). Nearly three-quarters (73.5%) of deaths involving COVID-19 were in people aged 75 years and over.

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic (up to week ending 8 January 2021), 55.1% of all deaths involving COVID-19 were in males. There were more deaths in females aged 85 years and over (19,669) than males aged 85 years and over (17,160). However, these numbers do not account for the population structure where there are more women aged over 85 years than men.

Looking at excess deaths by age group, the number of deaths up to 8 January 2021 was above the five-year average for all age groups above 14 years (Figure 4).

Figure 4: Nearly three-quarters of deaths involving COVID-19 were in people aged 75 years and over in Week 1

Number of deaths registered by week and age group, England and Wales, 28 December 2019 to 8 January 2021

Notes:

1. Figures include deaths of non-residents.

2. Based on date a death was registered rather than occurred.

3. All figures for 2020 and 2021 are provisional.

4. The International Classification of Diseases, 10th edition (ICD-10) definitions are as follows: coronavirus (COVID-19) (U07.1 and U07.2).

5. Individual weeks may not sum to the year-to-date analysis as previous weeks have been recalculated to have the most up-to-date figures.

6. Does not include deaths where age is either missing or not yet fully coded.

7. The number of deaths registered in 2020 Weeks 19, 20, 22, 23, 36, 37, 52 and 53 and in Week 1 2021 were affected by the Early May, Late May, August, Christmas and New Year Bank Holidays (Friday 8 May 2020, Monday 25 May 2020, Monday 31 August 2020, Friday 25 December 2020, Monday 28 December 2020, Friday 1 January 2021); the impact of the Early May Bank Holiday was analysed in our Week 20 bulletin.

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Figure 5: The number of deaths in Week 1 was higher than the five-year average in all English regions and Wales

Number of deaths in Wales and regions in England, registered between 28 December 2019 and 8 January 2021

Notes:

1. Based on area of usual residence. Geographical boundaries are based on the most up-to-date information available at the time of publication.

2. Figures exclude deaths of non-residents.

3. Based on date a death was registered rather than occurred.

4. All figures for 2020 and 2021 are provisional.

5. The International Classification of Diseases, 10th Edition (ICD-10) definitions are as follows; coronavirus (COVID-19) (U07.1 and U07.2).

6. The number of deaths registered in 2020 Weeks 19, 20, 22, 23, 36, 37, 52 and 53 and in Week 1 2021 were affected by the Early May, Late May, August, Christmas and New Year Bank Holidays (Friday 8 May 2020, Monday 25 May 2020, Monday 31 August 2020, Friday 25 December 2020, Monday 28 December 2020, Friday 1 January 2021); the impact of the Early May Bank Holiday was analysed in our Week 20 bulletin.

7. The Week 52 five-year average is used to compare against Week 53 deaths.

8. The five-year average has been provided for 2015 to 2019 (rather than 2016 to 2020) because of the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on deaths registered in 2020. The average for 2015 to 2019 provides a comparison of the number of deaths expected per week in a usual (non-pandemic) year.

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In Week 1 (week ending 8 January 2021), the total number of deaths registered was higher than the five-year average in all English regions and Wales for the ninth week in a row (Figure 5). The largest increase on the five-year average was for London (84.8% higher). Week 53 (week ending 1 January 2021) included both the Boxing Day and New Year's Day Bank Holidays, and registration delays during this period may account for the increase in death registrations in Week 1 compared with the five-year average.

In Week 1, there were 454 deaths involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) registered in Wales – a 46.5% increase compared with Week 53 (310 deaths).

Across the English regions, the South East had the largest number of deaths involving COVID-19 (1,197 deaths), while the English region with the highest proportion of deaths involving COVID-19 was London.

Deaths involving COVID-19 increased in Week 1 in all English regions, with the largest increase seen in the South East (674 more deaths). More detailed geographic analysis can be found in our Monthly mortality analysis release.

Of deaths involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) up to Week 1 (week ending 8 January 2021), 68.5% (60,057 deaths) occurred in hospital, with the remainder occurring in care homes (21,621 deaths), private homes (4,232 deaths), hospices (1,173 deaths), other communal establishments (338 deaths) and elsewhere (305 deaths).

Between Weeks 53 (week ending 1 January 2021) and 1, the number of deaths involving COVID-19 increased in hospitals, care homes, private homes, hospices, elsewhere and in other communal establishments (2,321, 400, 135, 28, 17 and 12 more deaths respectively). Deaths involving COVID-19 in hospitals as a proportion of all deaths in hospitals increased to 51.4% in Week 1 (from 47.7% in Week 53). Deaths involving COVID-19 in care homes accounted for over one-quarter of all deaths in care homes in Week 1 (28.3%), an increase from Week 53 (27.6%).

Detailed analysis on deaths of care home residents is available in Deaths involving COVID-19 in the care sector, England and Wales: deaths occurring up to 12 June 2020 and registered up to 20 June 2020.

From this week (Week 1 2021, week ending 8 January 2021) onwards we also will publish a dataset of weekly deaths to care home residents. The term "care home resident" used in this dataset refers to all deaths where either (a) the death occurred in a care home or (b) the death occurred elsewhere but the place of residence of the deceased was recorded as a care home. The figures should not be confused with "deaths in care homes" as reported within this article, which refers only to category (a).

As well as Office for National Statistics (ONS) data, the Care Quality Commission (CQC) provides numbers of deaths involving COVID-19 in care homes in England that are based on the date the death was notified to the CQC. From 10 April 2020 (the first day when data were collected using the CQC's new method of identifying deaths involving COVID-19) to 15 January 2021, there were 21,344 deaths of residents in care homes involving COVID-19. Of these deaths, 1,260 were notified in the week up to 15 January. More information on the data provided by the CQC can be found in our joint transparency statement.

In Wales, the Welsh Government publishes the number of deaths of care home residents involving COVID-19 notified to the Care Inspectorate Wales (CIW). Between 1 March 2020 and 1 January 2021, there were 1,269 deaths of residents in care homes involving COVID-19.

More information on how these numbers have compared throughout the pandemic can be found in our previous Comparison of weekly death occurrences in England and Wales release.

Figure 6: Excess deaths increased in all settings in Week 1

Number of excess deaths by place of occurrence, England and Wales, registered between 7 March 2020 and 8 January 2021

Notes:

1. Based on area of usual residence. Geographical boundaries and communal establishments are based on the most up-to-date information available.

2. Figures include deaths of non-residents.

3. Based on date a death was registered rather than occurred.

4. All figures for 2020 and 2021 are provisional.

5. The International Classification of Diseases, 10th Edition (ICD-10) definitions are as follows: coronavirus (COVID-19) (U07.1 and U07.2).

6. "Other" includes deaths in communal establishments other than hospitals and care homes, in hospices, and that occurred "elsewhere". More information on the place of death definitions used is available in the accompanying dataset.

7. The Week 52 five-year average is used to compare against Week 53 deaths.

8. The five-year average has been provided for 2015 to 2019 (rather than 2016 to 2020) because of the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on deaths registered in 2020. The average for 2015 to 2019 provides a comparison of the number of deaths expected per week in a usual (non-pandemic) year.

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In Week 1, the numbers of deaths in private homes, hospitals, care homes and other settings were above the five-year average (Figure 6). The largest proportion of excess deaths was registered in hospitals (3,185 deaths), followed by private homes (1,757 deaths), care homes (560 deaths) and other settings (45 deaths).

These increases compared with the five-year average must be interpreted with caution, because of the impact of moveable public holidays on the number of deaths registered.

Looking in more detail at deaths in private homes in Week 1, males accounted for 890 excess deaths compared with 867 for females. Overall, 77.0% of the excess deaths in private homes were of those aged 70 years and over (1,353 excess deaths); this proportion has decreased from 82.0% (557 excess deaths) in Week 53.

The Deaths in private homes release provides analysis for deaths registered from 28 December 2019 to 11 September 2020. In addition, more detailed analysis of excess deaths in England is produced by Public Health England (PHE) on a weekly basis.

Figure 7 is based on date of death for deaths registered up to 16 January 2021, rather than date of registration. As more deaths are registered, deaths per day are likely to increase, especially for later dates. Looking at the number of deaths that occurred in Week 1, 77.7% of deaths occurred in hospitals, and care homes accounted for 16.0% of all deaths involving COVID-19; this may change as more deaths are registered.

A death of a man aged 80 to 84 years was registered in the week ending 4 September 2020 (Week 36) that occurred in the week ending 31 January 2020 (Week 5). This is the earliest known death involving COVID-19 in the UK. There was also a death of a man aged 55 to 59 years registered in the week ending 21 August 2020 (Week 34) that occurred in the week ending 7 February 2020 (Week 6), and a death of a woman aged 30 to 34 years that was registered by 24 October 2020 and occurred in the week ending 28 February 2020 (Week 9).

Across the UK, there were 20,023 deaths (all causes) registered in Week 1 (week ending 8 January 2021), which was 6,170 deaths higher than the UK five-year average and 8,443 more deaths than in Week 53 (week ending 1 January 2021). Of these deaths, 6,586 involved the coronavirus (COVID-19), 3,162 more deaths than in Week 53 (92.3% increase) (Figure 8).

Week 53 included both the Boxing Day and New Year’s Day Bank Holidays, and registration delays during this period may account for the increase in death registrations in Week 1. Like last week, the trends should therefore be interpreted with caution.

In Week 1, England had the highest number of deaths involving COVID-19 with 5,597 deaths, followed by Wales with 454 deaths, Scotland with 384 deaths and Northern Ireland with 145 deaths.

We previously published this section as a separate article on the Office for National Statistics (ONS) website, which provided a more thorough description of the differences between different data sources. This section will look at the number of deaths by date of death produced by the ONS compared with death notifications reported by the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC). For Wales, we can also compare the reconciled DHSC data by date of death released by Public Health Wales (PHW).

On 12 August 2020, Public Health England (PHE) revised their data series to include two measures: deaths of positively tested individuals where the death occurred within 28 days and deaths within 60 days of a positive test. More information on these changes can be found in their technical summary.

In England, including deaths that occurred up to 8 January 2021 but were registered up to 16 January 2021, of those we have processed so far, the number involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) was 85,013.

The comparative number of death notifications reported by the DHSC on GOV.UK (based on data from PHE) where the deaths occurred within 28 days of testing was 70,541 and the number of deaths by date of death showed 73,006.

In Wales, including deaths that occurred up to 8 January 2021 but were registered up to 16 January 2021, of those we have processed so far, the number involving COVID-19 was 5,599. The comparative number of death notifications reported by the DHSC on GOV.UK (based on data from PHW) where the death occurred within 28 days of testing was 3,919 and the number of deaths by date of death was 4,061 deaths.

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Coronavirus (COVID-19) deaths

Coronavirus (COVID-19) deaths are those deaths registered in England and Wales in the stated week where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate. A doctor can certify the involvement of COVID-19 based on symptoms and clinical findings – a positive test result is not required. Definitions of COVID-19 for deaths in Scotland and Northern Ireland are similar to England and Wales.

More quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in the Mortality statistics in England and Wales QMI.

To meet user needs, we publish very timely but provisional counts of death registrations in England and Wales in our Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional dataset. These are presented by sex, age group and regions (within England) as well as for Wales as a whole. To allow time for registration and processing, these figures are published 11 days after the week ends. Because of the rapidly changing situation, in this bulletin we have also given provisional updated totals for death occurrences based on the latest available death registrations, up to 16 January 2021.

Because of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, our regular weekly deaths release now provides a separate breakdown of the number of deaths involving COVID-19: that is, where COVID-19 or suspected COVID-19 was mentioned anywhere on the death certificate, including in combination with other health conditions. If a death certificate mentions COVID-19, it will not always be the main cause of death but may be a contributory factor. This bulletin summarises the latest weekly information and will be updated each week during the pandemic.

From the bulletin dated 3 November 2020, we have added two additional analyses.

Previously, we gave a breakdown of deaths involving COVID-19 into those where COVID-19 was the underlying cause of death ("due to COVID-19") and those where it was a contributory factor ("involving COVID-19") in the monthly mortality analysis; because of high public interest, this distinction is now shown in Figure 2 of the weekly bulletin.

This bulletin is based mainly on the date deaths are registered, not the date of death, because of the time taken for a death to be registered. Deaths in England and Wales are normally registered within five days, but there can be a considerably longer delay in some circumstances, particularly when the death is referred to a coroner.

We have developed a statistical model to estimate the number of deaths likely to have occurred in each week, based on previous experience of the pattern of registration delays, including the effects of bank holidays. The method is described in the article Predicting total weekly death occurrences in England and Wales: methodology and the results are shown in the tab, "Estimated total deaths 2020", of the accompanying dataset.

These figures are different from the daily surveillance figures on COVID-19 deaths published by the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) on the GOV.UK website, for the UK as a whole and its constituent countries. Figures in this report are derived from the formal process of death registration and may include cases where the doctor completing the death certificate diagnosed possible cases of COVID-19, for example, where this was based on relevant symptoms but no test for the virus was conducted.

From 29 April 2020, the DHSC started to publish as their daily announced figures on deaths from COVID-19 for the UK a new series that uses improved data for England produced by Public Health England (PHE). These figures provide a count of all deaths where a positive test for COVID-19 has been confirmed, wherever that death has taken place, a change from previously reporting only confirmed COVID-19 deaths in hospitals. Figures for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland had already begun to include deaths outside hospitals, so this change ensured that the UK-wide series had a shared and common definitional coverage. A statement was published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), which provides more detail of the changes.

On 12 August 2020, the PHE data series was revised to include two measures: deaths of positively tested individuals where the death occurred within 28 days and deaths within 60 days of a positive test. More information on these changes can be found in their technical summary (PDF, 854KB).

In contrast to the GOV.UK figures, we include only deaths registered in England and Wales, which is the legal remit of the ONS. Tables 2 and 3 provide an overview of the differences in definitions between sources.

We will publish accompanying articles periodically, giving enhanced information such as age-standardised and age-specific mortality rates for recent time periods and breakdowns of deaths involving COVID-19 by associated pre-existing health conditions.

There is usually a delay of at least five days between occurrence and registration. More information on this issue can be found in our impact of registration delays release.

Our User guide to mortality statistics provides further information on data quality, legislation and procedures relating to mortality and includes a glossary of terms.

Figures are based on the date the death was registered, not when it occurred. There is usually a delay of at least five days between occurrence and registration. More information on this issue can be found in our impact of registration delays release.